After blast kills hundreds at Gaza hospital, Hamas and Israel trade blame as rage spreads in region

A massive blast rocked a Gaza City hospital packed with wounded and other Palestinians seeking shelter Tuesday, killing hundreds of people, the Hamas-run Health Ministry said. Hamas blamed an Israeli airstrike, while the Israeli military blamed a rocket misfired by other Palestinian militants.

At least 500 people were killed, the ministry said.

As rage spread through the region because of the hospital carnage, and with President Joe Biden heading to the Mideast in hopes of stopping the war from spreading, Jordan’s foreign minister said his country canceled a regional summit scheduled for Wednesday in Amman, where Biden was to meet with Jordan’s King Abdullah II, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi.

The war between Israel and Hamas was “pushing the region to the brink,” Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi told state-run television. He said Jordan would host the summit only when everyone had agreed its purpose would be to “stop the war, respect the humanity of the Palestinians and deliver the aid they deserve.”

Biden will now visit only Israel, a White House official said.

The explosion at the al-Ahli Hospital left gruesome scenes. Video that The Associated Press confirmed was from the hospital showed fire engulfing the building and the hospital grounds strewn with torn bodies, many of them young children. The grass around them was strewn with blankets, school backpacks and other belongings.

The bloodshed unfolded as the U.S. tried to convince Israel to allow the delivery of supplies to desperate civilians, aid groups and hospitals in the tiny Gaza Strip, which has been under a complete siege since Hamas’ deadly rampage in southern Israel last week. Hundreds of thousands of increasingly desperate people were searching for bread and water.

Hamas called Tuesday’s hospital blast “a horrific massacre,” saying it was caused by an Israeli strike.

The Israeli military blamed Islamic Jihad, a smaller, more radical Palestinian militant group that often works with Hamas. The military said Islamic Jihad militants had fired a barrage of rockets near the hospital and that “intelligence from multiple sources” indicated the group was responsible.

In a briefing with reporters, the chief army spokesman, Daniel Hagari, said the army determined there were no air force, ground or naval attacks in the area at the time of the blast. He said radar detected outgoing rocket fire at the same moment, and intercepted communications between militant groups indicated that Islamic Jihad fired the rockets.

Hagari also shared aerial footage collected by a military drone that showed a blast that he said was inconsistent with Israeli weaponry. He said the explosion occurred in the building’s parking lot, and he noted that the death toll could not be confirmed.

Since the war began, the military said in a statement that roughly 450 rockets fired at Israel by militant groups had landed in Gaza, “endangering and harming the lives of Gazan residents.”

Islamic Jihad dismissed those claims, accusing Israel of “trying hard to evade responsibility for the brutal massacre it committed.”

The group pointed to Israel’s order that Al-Ahli be evacuated and its previous bombing of the hospital complex as proof that the hospital was an Israeli target. It also said the scale of the explosion, the angle of the bomb’s fall and the extent of the destruction all pointed to Israel.

Hundreds of Palestinians had taken refuge in al-Ahli and other hospitals in Gaza City in past days, hoping they would be spared bombardment after Israel ordered all residents of the city and surrounding areas to evacuate to the southern Gaza Strip.

Ambulances and private cars rushed some 350 casualties from the al-Ahli blast to Gaza City’s main hospital, al-Shifa, which was already overwhelmed with wounded from other strikes, said its director, Mohammed Abu Selmia. The wounded were laid onto bloody floors, screaming in pain.

“We need equipment, we need medicine, we need beds, we need anesthesia, we need everything,” Abu Selmia said. He warned that fuel for the hospital’s generators would run out within hours.

Before the al-Alhi Hospital deaths, Israeli strikes on Gaza killed at least 2,778 people and wounded 9,700, according to the Gaza Health Ministry, and nearly two-thirds of those killed were children. Another 1,200 people across Gaza are believed to be buried under the rubble, alive or dead, health authorities said.

More than 1,400 people in Israel have been killed, mostly civilians who were slain in Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack. The assault also resulted in some 200 being taken captive into Gaza. Hamas militants in Gaza have launched rockets every day since, aiming at cities across Israel.

Hundreds of Palestinians flooded the streets of major West Bank cities including Ramallah, the seat of the Palestinian Authority, where protesters hurled stones at Palestinian security forces who fired back with stun grenades. Others threw stones at Israeli checkpoints, where soldiers killed one Palestinian, West Bank authorities said.

Elsewhere, hundreds of people joined protests that erupted in Beirut, Iraq and Amman, where an angry crowd gathered outside the Israeli Embassy.

In Amman, a palace statement said Jordan’s king condemned “the ugly massacre perpetrated by Israel against innocent civilians.”

The king “warned that this war, which has entered a dangerous phase, will plunge the region into an unspeakable disaster,” the statement said.

With tens of thousands of troops massed along the border, Israel has been expected to launch a ground invasion into Gaza, but its plans remained uncertain.

“We are preparing for the next stages of war,” military spokesman Richard Hecht said. “We haven’t said what they will be. Everybody’s talking about a ground offensive. It might be something different.”

Throughout the day Tuesday, airstrikes killed dozens of civilians and at least one senior Hamas figure in the southern half of the Gaza Strip, where the Israeli military told fleeing Palestinians to go. An Associated Press reporter saw around 50 bodies brought to Nasser Hospital after strikes in the southern city of Khan Younis.

The Israeli military said it was targeting Hamas hideouts, infrastructure and command centers.

An airstrike in Deir al Balah reduced a house to rubble, killing a man and 11 women and children inside and in a neighboring house, some of whom had evacuated from Gaza City. Witnesses said there was no warning before the strike.

Shelling from Israeli tanks hit a U.N. school in central Gaza where 4,000 Palestinians had taken refuge, killing six people and wounding dozens, the United Nations Palestinian refugee agency said. At least 24 U.N. installations have been hit the past week, killing at least 14 members of the agency’s staff.

A barrage of strikes crashed into the Bureij refugee camp in central Gaza, leveling an entire block of homes and causing dozens of casualties, residents said. Among those killed was one of Hamas’ top military commanders, Ayman Nofal, the group’s military wing said. He is the highest-profile militant to have been killed in the war.

In Gaza City, Israeli airstrikes also hit the house of Hamas’ top political official, Ismail Haniyeh, killing at least 14 people. Haniyeh is based in Doha, Qatar, but his family lives in Gaza City. The Hamas media office did not immediately identify those killed.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sought to put the blame on Hamas for Israel’s retaliatory attacks and the rising civilian casualties in Gaza. “Not only is it targeting and murdering civilians with unprecedented savagery, it’s hiding behind civilians,” he said.

With Israel barring entry of most water, fuel and food into Gaza since Hamas’ brutal attack, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken secured an agreement with Netanyahu to discuss creation of a mechanism for delivering aid to the territory’s 2.3 million people. U.S. officials said the gain might appear modest, but stressed that it was a significant step forward.

Still, as of late Tuesday, there was no deal in place. A top Israeli official said his country was demanding guarantees that Hamas militants would not seize any aid deliveries. Tzahi Hanegbi, head of Israel’s National Security Council, suggested entry of aid also depended on the return of hostages held by Hamas.

More than 1 million Palestinians have fled their homes — roughly half of Gaza’s population — and 60% are now in the approximately 14-kilometer (8-mile) long area south of the evacuation zone, the U.N. said.

At the Rafah crossing, Gaza’s only connection to Egypt, truckloads of aid have been waiting to enter for more than a day. The World Food Program said it had more than 300 tons of food ready to cross into Gaza.

 

AP

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Ukraine uses US long-range missiles to strike Moscow-occupied territories

Ukrainian forces used U.S.-supplied long-range ATACMS missiles for the first time, inflicting heavy damage on two airfields in Russian-occupied areas, with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy saying on Tuesday that the weapons had "proven themselves".

The Ukrainian military had issued reports throughout the day about successful, high-precision strikes on airfields near Luhansk in Ukraine's east and in Berdiansk in the south, on the Sea of Azov, both under Russian control.

"Today, special thanks to the United States. Our agreements with President Biden are being implemented. Very accurately - ATACMS proved themselves," Zelenskiy said in his nightly video address.

Ukraine had repeatedly asked the U.S. administration for ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile Systems). Kyiv pledged not to use them inside Russia's territory but said the powerful weapons would alter the course of the 20-month-old war.

Deploying the weapons would allow Ukrainian forces to disrupt previously unreachable supply lines, air bases and rail networks used by Russia in occupied territories, senior officials said.

Ukrainian Special Forces, without initially mentioning the ATACMS, said that nine helicopters, an air defence missile launcher, runways and other equipment had been destroyed, and heavy losses inflicted on Russian forces.

There was no official comment from Russia. But a Moscow-installed official in partially Moscow-controlled Zaporizhzhia region, which is home to Berdiansk, said that cluster munitions from the ATACMS missiles were found there on Tuesday.

Earlier, Rogov said that Russian air defences had ensured that a Ukrainian air attack near Berdiansk was not successful.

Zelenskiy's comments mark the first confirmed use in Ukraine of the ATACMS, which can fly up to 190 miles (310 km). The country's Defence Ministry promised on X, formerly Twitter, that there would be "more news to come".

"As you can see, it is now possible to hit targets impeccably, with great precision, giving the enemy no chance," Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yuriy Ihnat told national television.

Kyiv's Western partners have been careful about supplying long-range missiles needed for its four-month-old counteroffensive, fearing it would provoke the Kremlin. It is not clear how many ATACMS missiles Ukraine has.

ATACMS are designed for "deep attack of enemy second-echelon forces," a U.S. Army website says.

A NEW CHAPTER

Ukraine's presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said a new chapter of the war had begun.

"There are no more safe places for Russian troops within the ... internationally recognized borders of Ukraine," he wrote on X.

Russian military bloggers commented on the attacks during the day, with Telegram channel Fighterbomber saying Russian forces had suffered losses of personnel and equipment in strikes carried out with ATACMS.

Citing two unidentified U.S. officials, CNN said Washington had secretly delivered ATACMS to Kyiv. The Wall Street Journal said Ukraine had fired the ATACMS for the first time on Tuesday.

Since starting a counteroffensive in June, Kyiv has frequently attacked military targets in Russian-occupied areas, but it has failed to liberate significant territory from Russian occupation.

Oleksandr Shtupun, spokesperson for Ukraine's southern group of forces, told national television that there had been no letup in Russia's week-old assault on the devastated town of Avdiivka in the east, with Ukrainian forces repelling 10 attacks.

Shtupun also said Ukrainian forces advancing southward to the Sea of Azov had registered "partial success" west of Verbove, one of a cluster of villages it is trying to capture.

The Ukrainian military said Russia was hoping to advance as far as possible towards the town of Kupiansk in northeastern Ukraine before winter.

** Two civilians killed in Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia - Ukraine officials

Two people were killed and at least four wounded after an apartment building was destroyed in a Russian air attack on the city of Zaporizhzhia, officials in the Zaporizhzhia region in Ukraine said on Wednesday.

"Search and rescue operations are ongoing at the site," Anatoliy Kurtiev, secretary of the Zaporizhzhia city council, said on the Telegram messaging app.

Yuriy Malashko, governor of the Zaporizhzhia region, said that eight apartments buildings were damaged in what he said was a Russian missile attack.

Malashko and Kurtiev posted photos of a five-storey building with windows blown out and the entrance destroyed and debris scattered around.

Earlier, a Moscow-installed official in the Russia-controlled parts of Zaporizhzhia, blamed the strikes in the city on Ukrainian forces.

The city of Zaporizhzhia is the administrative centre of the broader Zaporizhzhia region in southeast Ukraine, which is now partially controlled by Russia.

 

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Russia’s Shoigu estimates Ukrainian counteroffensive losses

The Ukrainian military is continuing its attempts to attack Russian positions along the frontline, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu revealed on Monday during a televised meeting with President Vladimir Putin and other top officials.

The continuous push by Kiev has been countered by Russia’s “active defense” and counterattacks, with the Ukrainian military failing to make any significant gains anywhere, Shoigu noted. Over the course of its counteroffensive initiated in early June, Ukraine has incurred significant losses, including the loss of “hundreds” of tanks, over 1,500 armored combat vehicles, and substantial personnel casualties, although Shoigu did not provide precise figures.

“The situation looks stable, solid. The troops are acting very professionally, exhibit heroism at many locations, displaying confidence not to only hold their positions, but to continue the realization of the plans we had outlined,” the minister concluded.

According to estimates cited by President Putin last week, Kiev’s forces have lost “over 90,000 people” so far during the counteroffensive. In recent days, certain Ukrainian officials have admitted the counteroffensive has apparently lagged behind schedule and might have gotten “stalled.”Putin, however, said on Sunday the Ukrainian push “has failed completely.”

** Russian forces destroy over 250 military helicopters in Ukraine operation

Russian forces have destroyed over 250 Ukrainian combat helicopters since the start of the special military operation in Ukraine, Russia’s Defense Ministry reported on Tuesday.

"In all, the following targets have been destroyed since the start of the special military operation: 491 aircraft, 251 helicopters, 7,953 unmanned aerial vehicles, 441 surface-to-air missile systems, 12,706 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,163 multiple rocket launchers, 6,802 field artillery guns and mortars and 14,372 special military motor vehicles," the ministry said in a statement.

Ukraine’s army loses 270 troops in Kupyansk area in past day

Russian forces repulsed seven Ukrainian army attacks in the Kupyansk area, killing and wounding roughly 270 enemy troops over the past day, the ministry reported.

"The enemy’s losses amounted to 270 personnel killed and wounded, a tank, 10 armored combat vehicles and three pickup trucks. In counter-battery fire, the following targets were destroyed: two Polish-made Krab self-propelled artillery systems and two Gvozdika motorized artillery guns," the ministry said.

Units of Russia’s battlegroup West supported by aircraft and artillery fire repulsed seven enemy attacks near the settlements of Ivanovka and Timkovka in the Kharkov Region and Nadiya in the Lugansk People’s Republic, the ministry said.

 

Reuters/RT/Tass

In criminal law, he who accuses another of a crime, must prove it. Otherwise, the accused shall remain presumed innocent, until declared not guilty. In a court of law, he who alleges must bear the burden of proof. These are general concept people have used in discussing the allegations against President  Bola Tinubu for certificate forgery. The President’s supporters are quick to say: "Forgery has not yet been proven", and they are right. But how appropriate is that approach?

First, there is a difference between being innocent and being presumed innocent. They normally don’t teach that in law schools. So, even the best lawyers often don’t realize that there is a difference between the two. An accused person is not really innocent. He is only presumed innocent. This is particularly so where the process of indictment is done honestly and fairly. However, where, as in Nigeria, the process of accusing a person formally is corrupt and riddled with all manner of intrigues, to be accused could actually mean many things.

Second, the above concepts only apply in court cases, especially criminal cases. They do not apply in moral parlance or politics. There are certain allegations which, by the circumstances of the accused,  are so damaging that the accused must endeavor to disprove them immediately. Let’s run these scenarios:

A pastor is accused of worshipping in a shrine or in a mosque,

A teacher is accused of raping a minor in his class,

A president of Nigeria is accused of forging his certificate.

In these scenarios, these are very weighty allegations, and the accused has the following options:

1. The accused should just relax and wait for the accuser to prove the allegations,

2. The accused should take steps to disprove the allegations,

3. The accused should  block the accuser from proving the allegations.

Which of these options should you recommend to the accused in any of these scenarios?

As regards the case of Tinubu, because he is the President of Nigeria, presumed to be the greatest country of fraudsters, for him to be accused of certificate forgery is so serious a problem that he should not wait for the accusers to prove their case. He should do everything humanly possible to disprove these allegations. But what did Tinubu try to do? He tried to block the accusers from proving the allegations. He applied to the Court and begged the court to hide his academic record. Even after the court told him that the records should be released, he applied to the Court on appeal and said that releasing the record was so dangerous that it exposed him to the risk of death. That is where we are.

Now, use your head and ask yourself again: Is this the type of case where the accused should just wait for the accuser to prove his allegation or is this a case where the accused must take steps to clear his name?

Please, as you answer this question, forget that Tinubu came from any particular tribe in Nigeria. Assume he does not belong to any particular tribe.

Amal Hassan is the founder and CEO of Outsource Global, a Nigerian contact centre business process outsourcing company. It specialises in delivering BPO solutions, telemarketing, IT services, software development, and customer support services to the international market.

Hassan is a technopreneur with diverse interests across different technology verticals. In 2013, she founded Outsource Global which has established its presence with offices in Abuja, Lagos, and Kaduna.

During a panel session on More Jobs through Investing in Human Capital at the World Bank-IMF 2023 Annual Meetings in Marakesh Morocco, Hassan said she started her career with an IT training center in the Northern part of Nigeria, Kano and after training a lot of IT professionals, she realised that she wasn’t changing their lives.

“They come into the centres, they get trained in major IT courses and then go back into the market without a job,” she said.

In her quest to create employment opportunities for Nigerian youths, she did her research and discovered that BPO servicing provides millions of jobs to the Indians. She found out that Americans have been outsourcing their customer services to Indians since 1980, and she thought ‘Why not Nigeria’.

“It took me eight years to start the company, I started it four times and failed but we went live in June 2016 and today we have 1,500 employees and 50 percent are women,” Hassan said.

In order to compete with India in the skills required to serve the international market not just America, the company created its training team.

“Nigeria graduates about a million graduates every year, with different skill sets but they have to be upskilled to be employed. We put in structured training from communication skills, attention to detail, time management, and critical thinking, for them to be enrolled in client-specific training,” she said.

After one year of operations, Hassan realised the reluctance of Nigerian graduates to pursue roles in customer service and sales, after obtaining specialised education.

To address this, she transitioned the company’s business model to a partnership approach. This involved collaborating with experts in various fields such as law, accounting, and software development to design tailored training programs that bridged the gap between academic knowledge and practical skills required by the international market.

This started by taking in lawyers in Nigeria, she said. “We looked at different kinds of training and started with paralegals, and today those lawyers are doing much more than paralegals work.”

“Also, we looked at accounting as a service, and we partnered with someone that designed a project on a program basically to upskill our accountants in Nigeria to be able to serve the international market.”

“We looked at the US as a market and applied the same procedure with software as a development service and got a partner in Silicon Valley that created a program that trains our team based on the needs of companies in Silicon Valley,” she said.

Hassan added, “The same thing we did with the software we did with accounting, we got a partner in Houston and thought how to upskill our people based on your needs, how do we expand your team with us, what is the kind of training that is required for us to do and we structured a training based on the gap that they have.”

On how the training works, she said “We set up on curriculum based on how they are going to be employable, and then we structure the training, test them before finally outsourcing them.”

Her efforts resulted in the establishment of the Outsource Global Academy, which focused on providing comprehensive training in software, AI, and data management. With an emphasis on upskilling and practical applicability, the academy aimed to equip graduates with the necessary expertise to thrive in the global marketplace.

“Right now we’ve over 300 people training and there are only 24 people that haven’t been outsourced yet after passing from our academy,” she said during the panel discussion.

However, after Covid-19, the company realised the big gap regarding administration in hospitals in the US. She said “We created a training, we got a partner who has already a curriculum regarding training people on professional medical services (PMS) and we have now trained 19 people and gradually we are outsourcing them.

Under Hassan’s leadership, Outsource Global expanded its operations across multiple cities in Nigeria and has plans to establish a presence in French and Spanish-speaking countries in Africa.

Hassan’s commitment to empowering women and youth has earned her recognition as a role model and mentor in Nigeria, particularly in the northern regions.

 

Businessday

Federal government, on Monday, proposed N26 trillion for the 2024 budget, which will be submitted to the national assembly before December 31.

Atiku Bagudu, minister of planning and budget, announced the budget proposal at the end of the Federal Executive Council the (FEC) meeting held on Monday, at the presidential villa, Abuja.

Bagudu said the council has approved the 2024-2025 medium-term expenditure framework (MTEF) and fiscal strategy papers (FSP).

He added that the executive is required by the Fiscal Responsibility Act to present to the national assembly ahead of a budget presentation, a document which will provide the medium-term economic outlook for the economy.

He said FEC made assumptions about the reference price for crude oil which is at $73.96 per barrel as well as an exchange rate of N700.

“Now, it was presented on the background of the commendable measures that have been taken since June in order to restore macroeconomic stability particularly the deregulation of petroleum prices, which we maintained that subsidies are gone and indeed the regulation of the foreign exchange market,” the minister said.

“So Council deliberated, as well as the implication of this and all measures promised in the renewed hope agenda consumer credits, mortgages, reversed or dismissed institution as well as funding the newly aligned institutional changes particularly ministries with specific functions that are able to generate growth so that would be better for our country.

“Council members acknowledged the medium-term expenditure framework, and it is agreed that we can go ahead to the next step of consultation and presentation to the National Assembly.”

FEC APPROVES CONTINUATION OF INHERITED ROAD PROJECTS, CONCRETE USAGE

During the briefing of the state house correspondents, Dave Umahi, minister of works and housing, said the Council approved the continuation of inherited road projects by the past administration which include bridges.

He said the council was made aware of a number of abandoned and ongoing projects — dating back 20 years — that don’t have proper funding.

Umahi said FEC was also informed of some new critical roads totalling 12,000 kilometres and 24 bridges.

“You know, FEC approved for the continuation of these inherited projects and the new proposals and directed that Federal Executive Council committee of chief of staff, minister for finance and coordinating minister of economy, minister for works, minister for planning and budget, GCEO/GMD of NNPLC, chairman of IRS and SSA on Tax Reform, to meet and come up with strategies to source for the funds and everything patterning to the funding,” Umahi said,

He said the council was advised to allow some ongoing road projects and new projects, to be redesigned on concrete to mitigate inflation.

“FEC approved that concept that most of the ongoing projects should be designed on concrete pavements depending on the level of completion and if you’re doing asphalt, there are also conditions for that,” Umahi said.

“FEC also approved the coastal road running from Phase 1 which runs from Lagos to Port Harcourt to Calabar. Phase2 runs from Sokoto to Ogoja. It was approved to be done on EBC + F, that is engineering procurement and construction plus financing.”

According to the minister, the council approved eight roads that were started by the past administration for concessions, having undergone necessary processes — and the financial closure should be reached in November.

Umahi said: “There were nine actually but one was pulled out, that is Lagos-Ota-Abeokuta, and that has been given to the Ogun State government based on their request that they should do the road on their own and they will follow the HDMI that is hardware development management initiative.”

“No refunds for that but they will do it and toll it. And new 25 roads were also approved for concessioning, which takes a very long time on the PPP model.

“Lastly, the PPP (Public, Private, Partnership) for Ijora park in Lagos. It was approved that it should be done on PPP. And it was won by Beta Nigeria Ltd, which was actually started by the last administration. So we just have to convey what they did to FEC which we got approval.

“Finally, the consultancy for NNPC and FIRS who oversee the projects funded by them was also approved today.”

The federal government said FEC meetings would only be held on Mondays going forward and the meetings may not be held weekly until there are pressing issues to discuss.

 

The Cable

Nigeria’s cabinet approved plans by the government to seek a $1.5 billion loan from the World Bank, Finance Minister Wale Edun said.

The funding will be concessionary and is expected to be secured by December, Edun told reporters in the capital, Abuja, on Monday. The West African nation will also seek $80 million of financing from the African Development Bank, he said.

Nigeria is seeking funding as it implements a series of economic reforms to accelerate economic growth and support the more than 40% of its 200 million people who live in poverty. Over the past eight years, the nation’s debt has increased almost eight-fold to more than $110 billion, and servicing those obligations consumed 96% of government revenue in 2022.

The reform initiative by President Bola Tinubu “is being rewarded by processing for Nigeria $1.5 billion of immediate financing,” Edun said. “Provided that we do everything on our own side, it will be in before the end of the year.”

The International Monetary Fund has welcomed Nigeria’s reforms, which include unifying the nation’s various exchange rates and removing a costly gasoline subsidy, and said it’s prepared to help the government.

“As every member country of the IMF, Nigeria can seek IMF financing if they see this as helpful to address external imbalances,” the Lagos-based Punch newspaper quoted the fund as saying. “The Nigerian authorities have not approached the IMF with a request for financing.”

 

Bloomberg

Nigeria's annual inflation rose in September to its highest level in about two decades at 26.72%, amid a worsening cost-of-living crisis in Africa's largest economy.

The September inflation rate rose for a ninth straight month from August's 25.8%, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Monday, with millions of Nigerians impoverished due to the impact of President Bola Tinubu's economic policies.

Food inflation, making up the bulk of Nigeria's inflation basket, rose to 30.64% in September from 29.34% in August.

Tinubu has been under pressure to ease economic hardship after scrapping a decades-old petrol subsidy that tripled prices and allowed the naira to depreciate more than 50%, sending prices surging in Africa's top oil producer and most populous nation.

The central bank "has an unenviable inflation task and will need to respond with aggressive monetary tightening," said David Omojomolo, Africa economist at research firm Capital Economics.

"Our expectation is that the inflation picture will continue to worsen. The impact of the removal of fuel subsidies will continue to push up on inflation while the naira’s devaluation will also continue to feed through," he said.

Inflation in Nigeria has risen to double-digits since 2016, eroding incomes and savings, and may prompt the central bank to raise interest rates, which are already at their highest in nearly two decades, at its next meeting. Annual inflation is at its highest now since 2005.

"The rise in food inflation on a year-on-year basis was caused by increases in prices of oil and fat, bread and cereals, potatoes, yam and other tubers, fish, fruit, meat, vegetables and milk, cheese, and eggs," the NBS said.

Economic analysts said naira depreciation, higher food and energy prices and logistical costs were some of the key drivers of Nigeria's inflation.

Last week the central bank, under new Governor Olayemi Cardoso, pledged to intervene in the country's foreign exchange market occasionally to boost liquidity, after ending an eight-year restriction on 43 items, including rice, poultry and cement, from accessing foreign exchange on the official window.

The central bank hiked rates by a smaller-than-expected margin at its last meeting in July, contrary to analysts' forecast.

Some analysts expect a more hawkish stance under Cardoso at the bank's next rate-setting meeting.

Tinubu has defended his policy reforms and vowed not to go backwards despite strong opposition from labour unions who say they have hurt the poor and should be reversed

 

Reuters

With humanitarian aid blocked at Egyptian border, Gaza draws closer to total collapse

Truckloads of aid idled at Egypt’s border with Gaza as residents and humanitarian groups pleaded Monday for water, food and fuel for dying generators, saying the tiny Palestinian territory sealed off by Israel after last week’s rampage by Hamas was near total collapse.

U.S. President Joe Biden planned to travel to Israel on Wednesday to signal White House support for the country and to Jordan to meet with Arab leaders. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced the trip early Tuesday in Tel Aviv during his second visit to Israel in less than a week amid fears that the fighting could expand into a broader regional conflict.

In Gaza, hospitals were on the verge of losing electricity, threatening the lives of thousands of patients, and hundreds of thousands of Palestinians displaced from their homes searched for bread. Israel maintained punishing airstrikes across Gaza as a ground invasion loomed, while Hamas militants kept up a barrage of rocket attacks, and tensions mounted near the Israel-Lebanon border.

More than a week after Israel cut off entry of any supplies, all eyes were on the Rafah crossing, Gaza’s only connection to Egypt. Mediators were trying to reach a cease-fire that would let in aid and let out trapped foreigners. Israeli airstrikes forced the crossing to shut down last week, but it remained unclear Monday which of the regional actors was keeping the crossing closed.

Blinken, who returned to Israel after a six-country tour through Arab nations, said the U.S. and Israel had agreed to develop a plan to enable humanitarian aid to reach civilians in Gaza. There were few details, but the plan would include “the possibility of creating areas to help keep civilians out of harm’s way.”

“We share Israel’s concern that Hamas may seize or destroy aid entering Gaza or otherwise prevent it from reaching the people who need it,” Blinken said.

Israel evacuated towns near its northern border with Lebanon, where the military has exchanged fire repeatedly with the Iranian-backed Hezbollah group.

Speaking to the Israeli Knesset, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned Iran and Hezbollah, “Don’t test us in the north. Don’t make the mistake of the past. Today, the price you will pay will be far heavier,” referring to Israel’s 2006 war with Hezbollah, which operates out of Lebanon.

Soon after he spoke, the Knesset floor was evacuated as rockets headed toward Jerusalem. Sirens in Tel Aviv prompted U.S. and Israeli officials to take shelter in a bunker, officials said.

Iran’s foreign minister, meanwhile, warned that “preemptive action is possible” if Israel moves closer to a ground offensive. Hossein Amirabdollahian’s threat followed a pattern of escalating rhetoric from Iran, which supports Hamas and Hezbollah.

This has become the deadliest of the five Gaza wars for both sides. At least 2,778 people have been killed and 9,700 wounded in Gaza, according to the Health Ministry there. More than 1,400 Israelis have been killed, the vast majority civilians massacred in Hamas’ Oct. 7 assault.

The Israeli military said Monday that at least 199 hostages were taken into Gaza, more than previously estimated. Hamas said it was holding 200 to 250 hostages, including foreigners whom it said it would free when it was feasible.

Also Monday, Hamas’ military wing released a hostage video showing a dazed woman having her arm wrapped with bandages. The woman, who identified herself in the video as Mia Schem, 21, rocked slightly as she spoke, the sound of explosions reverberating in the background. In her statement, Schem said she was taken from Sderot, a small Israeli city near the Gaza border where she had attended a party. Hamas said she had undergone a three-hour operation.

The Israeli military said Schem’s family was told of her abduction last week, and officials dismissed the video as propaganda.

The plight of the hostages has dominated the Israeli media since the attack, with interviews of their relatives playing almost constantly. Israeli officials have vowed to maintain the siege of Gaza until the hostages are released.

The head of Israel’s Shin Bet security service, in charge of monitoring militant groups, took responsibility for failing to avert Hamas’ surprise attack. As agency head, “the responsibility for that is on me,” Ronen Bar said.

“There will be time for investigation — now is a time for war,” he wrote in a letter to Shin Bet workers and their families.

The combination of airstrikes, dwindling supplies and Israel’s mass evacuation order for the north of the Gaza Strip has thrown the tiny territory’s 2.3 million people into upheaval and increasing desperation. More than 1 million have fled their homes, and 60% are now in the approximately 14-kilometer-long (8 mile) area south of the evacuation zone, according to the U.N.

The Israeli military says it is trying to clear civilians for their safety ahead of a major campaign against Hamas in Gaza’s north, where it says the militants have extensive networks of tunnels and rocket launchers. Much of Hamas’ military infrastructure is in residential areas.

Those fleeing northern Gaza still faced airstrikes in the south. Before dawn Monday, a strike in the town of Rafah collapsed a building sheltering three families who had evacuated from Gaza City. At least 12 people were killed and nine others remained buried under rubble, survivors said. The strike reduced the house to a vast crater blanketed with wreckage.

Hospitals are expected to run out of generator fuel in the next 24 hours, meaning life-saving equipment like incubators and ventilators will stop functioning and putting thousands of lives at risk, the U.N. said.

People grew increasingly desperate in their search for food and water. With taps dry, many have resorted to drinking dirty or sewage-filled water, risking the spread of disease.

More than 400,000 displaced people in the south crowded into schools and other facilities of the U.N. agency for Palestinians, UNRWA. But the agency can’t provide them supplies. UNRWA said it has only 1 liter of water a day for each of its staff members trapped in the territory.

“Gaza is running out of water, and Gaza is running out of life,” said UNRWA chief Philippe Lazzarini, calling for a lifting of the siege. “We need this now.”

The few operating bakeries had long snaking lines of people. Ahmad Salah in the city of Deir al-Balah said he waited 10 hours to get a kilo (2 pounds) of bread to feed 20-30 family members.

In northern Gaza, unknown numbers remained, either unwilling or unable to leave.

UNRWA said 170,000 people were sheltering at its schools in the north when the order to leave came. But it couldn’t evacuate them and doesn’t know if they remained. More than 40,000 have crowded in and around Gaza City’s al-Shifa Hospital, hoping it will be safe from bombardment.

Hamas urged people to ignore the evacuation order. The Israeli military on Sunday released photos it said showed a Hamas roadblock preventing traffic from moving south.

Doctors and many hospital staff have refused to evacuate, saying it would mean death for critically ill patients and newborns on ventilators. The aid group Doctors Without Borders said many of its personnel decided to stay to treat wounded. They ran out of painkillers, and staff reported “wounded screaming in pain,” it said.

On the Gaza side of the Rafah crossing, crowds of Palestinians with dual citizenship waited anxiously, sitting on suitcases or crouched on the floor, some comforting crying infants.

“They are supposed to be a developed country, talking about human rights all the time,” Shurouq Alkhazendar, whose two children are American citizens, said of the United States. “You should protect your citizens first, not leave them all alone suffering.”

After increasing cross-border exchanges with Hezbollah in the north, the Israeli military ordered residents to evacuate 28 communities within 2 kilometers (1.2 miles) of the Lebanese border.

“Israel is ready to operate on two fronts, and even more,” said Daniel Hagari, a military spokesman.

Hezbollah released video showing snipers shooting out cameras on several Israeli army posts along the border, apparently to prevent Israel from monitoring movements on the Lebanese side.

The U.S. government began evacuating some 2,500 American citizens by ship from the Israeli port city of Haifa to Cyprus. Commercial airlines have largely stopped flying into Israel’s Ben-Gurion International Airport.

 

AP

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Russian air defenses down two Ukrainian MiG-29 fighters, Su-25 attack plane in past day

Russian air defense forces shot down two Ukrainian MiG-29 fighters and a Su-25 attack aircraft over the past day in the special military operation in Ukraine, Russia’s Defense Ministry reported on Monday.

"Air defense capabilities shot down two Ukrainian Air Force MiG-29 fighters and a Su-25 attack plane in areas near Arkhangelskoye in the Kherson Region, Dmitrovka and Zvonetskoye in the Dnepropetrovsk Region," the ministry said in a statement.

Russian forces repel 10 Ukrainian attacks in Kupyansk area over past day

Russian forces repelled ten Ukrainian army attacks in the Kupyansk area over the past day, the ministry reported.

"In the Kupyansk direction, units of the western battlegroup supported by aircraft, artillery and heavy flamethrower fires repelled in their active operations ten attacks by assault groups of the Ukrainian army’s 68th jaeger, 32nd, 44th and 115th mechanized brigades in areas near the settlements of Sinkovka, Ivanovka and Novoyegorovka in the Kharkov Region and Makeyevka in the Lugansk People’s Republic," the ministry said.

Russian forces also struck manpower and military hardware of the Ukrainian army’s 112th territorial defense brigade, 14th mechanized and 95th air assault brigades in areas near the settlements of Petropavlovka, Kupyansk and Petrovskoye, the ministry said.

"The enemy lost as many as 85 Ukrainian personnel, two tanks, two armored combat vehicles, a D-20 artillery gun and two 2S1 Gvozdika motorized artillery systems," the ministry specified.

 

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Russia aims to pierce Ukraine defences in northeast, general says

Russia is aiming to break through Ukrainian defences in the northeastern Kupiansk-Lyman area after a sharp increase in fighting, the commander of Ukraine's ground forces said on Monday.

Footage released by Ukraine's ground forces showed their commander, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, meeting troops at an undisclosed location in a wooded area. It quoted him as saying fighting in Kupiansk-Lyman had "significantly escalated".

"The enemy is preparing, seriously preparing for offensive actions, bringing in staff," Syrskyi said in the footage posted on the Telegram messaging app. "The main goal is to break through our troops' defences and recapture our territory."

Retaking the towns of Kupiansk and Lyman last year near Ukraine's second-largest city of Kharkiv was a key step in the Ukrainian military's drive to evicting Russian troops from some parts of the country's Donbas industrial heartland.

Russia's Defence Ministry acknowledged intense military activity in the area, saying its troops had repelled 10 Ukrainian attacks in the Kupiansk area and two more in adjacent Lyman.

A spokesperson for Ukraine's eastern forces said Russian forces in the Kupiansk area were encountering stiff resistance from well-entrenched troops and had been forced to retreat.

"Our fortifications there are quite reliable. We have a powerful, dug-in position," Ilia Yevlash told Ukrainian television. "So the enemy got it right in the teeth and retreated in order to regroup."

Ukraine launched a counter-offensive in June focusing on retaking ground in the east, mainly around Bakhmut, which was seized by Russian forces in May, and on pushing south to the Sea of Azov.

The Ukrainian military has registered mainly incremental gains, but has dismissed some Western critics who say the offensive is moving too slowly.

LULL IN AVDIIVKA

The focus on the eastern front has shifted in the past week from Bakhmut to Avdiivka, a town further southwest known for its large coking plant.

The top local official in Avdiivka said a lull had taken hold in the city, but predicted a new onslaught soon.

"Shelling has diminished, there was less today," Vitaliy Barabash, head of Avdiivka's military administration, told national television, while noting two people were killed in a nearby village.

"We expect there will be new waves of heavy attacks in the days to come."

The town, like Bakhmut, is largely destroyed. Strategically important, Avdiivka is located about 20 km (12 miles) west of Donetsk, the region's main city, held by Russian forces since 2014.

Ukraine's general staff, in its evening report, reported heavy fighting in other areas, saying its forces had beaten back 16 attacks near the long-contested town of Maryinka, also west of Donetsk, and three more near Bakhmut.

 

Whichever angle one looks at it, there is no way Nigeria can escape a crisis from the ongoing certificate conundrum involving President Bola Tinubu. From what has come to light so far, which has been the subject of discussions in the public sphere, our president, Tinubu, has a past strewn with all kinds of unedifying deeds at different times and at different locations which collectively cast unflattering light at him. These deeds appear so tardy and questionable leading one to wonder how our president with his loud claim to brilliance and intelligence would allow himself to get caught in these serial, unintelligent acts. 

Going through Tinubu’s records now in the public domain, one finds several ‘’smoking guns’’ that easily puncture the valiant attempts at deodorising them by his publicists. One can only pity them on the impossible job they are doing, but the facts still remain that from what we have seen and know so far, Tinubu’s credentials just do not add up. 

On a closer look at the whole saga, what should concern us more is not that our president appears to have dodgy credentials, but the fact that due to the position he occupies, extricating Nigeria from this imbroglio will be as difficult as the proverbial camel to go through the eye of the needle. 

Let us look at the various scenarios.  

The immediate one on which there are great expectations both within Nigeria and outside is on what the Supreme Court verdict will be on the case now that new evidence on the president’s past is available with all the evidence now available.    

Most people are inclined to agree that the apex court has its work cut out in this regard. Will the judges reach a verdict, admit and base their judgement on the evidence most recently procured on the president’s credentials or decide otherwise? 

It is a Hobson’s choice really and with the heightened interests in the case both here in Nigeria and abroad whichever way the court decides there are bound to be consequences. One of the consequences is that indeed the Judiciary itself is on trial on this one. 

If the court admits the new documents, then it is almost likely that the weight of the evidence available will tilt the verdict against Tinubu, resulting in his having to resign as president. 

If on the other hand, the court decides to refuse admittance of the evidence and upholds the verdict of the lower court that ruled in favour of the President, a school of thought will emerge that the president was saved by technicality, not by merit of evidence available. But with the damning evidence already in the public space, it will be difficult to shake off the impression that the president was allowed to escape despite the hard, overwhelming evidence against him. 

Under the circumstances, the argument and agitation would shift to the public space and the National Assembly. The social media and some mainstream media platforms will be awash with negative and incendiary comments on the president and there will be calls on the National Assembly to impeach him based on the evidence available.  

The arguments and agitations here will not be based merely on legality but also on the propriety and morality of the president remaining in office with such heavy baggage of serial infractions weighing on him. And the National Assembly will be called frequently to save the country from the further indignity and embarrassment of having a president with such a dodgy past representing Nigeria in the comity of nations.  

In considering whether to impeach the president or not the National Assembly will likely face the dilemma of political, regional and ethnic partisanship as against the need to protect the overriding national interest which some members will vigorously canvass.  Like the Judiciary, the National Assembly will also be on trial. 

So with the president already on trial, the judiciary having to make a crucial judgement on this landmark case and the National Assembly expected to decide whether to do its constitutional duties we will end up having all three arms of government on trial before the Nigerian public. 

The palpable tension all this will engender in the country can be best imagined.  

If against all this Tinubu manages to hang on, he is likely to face enormous multi-dimensional challenges. The simple fact is that even if he escapes the judicial hammer of the Supreme Court, and impeachment from the National Assembly with the dodgy documents about him, it is unlikely he will seek a second term in office. Tinubu’s hold on the party and administration will be weakened as his government will face all kinds of moral and political challenges.  

Seeing that he is a damaged good and mortally wounded politically he will face an internal revolt from within his party the APC. This will certainly set the stage for the realignment of political forces on the back of issues around Tinubu in the coming months. 

Tinubu’s problems will also be exacerbated by the tough socio-economic situation in the country which from all indications is likely to get worse in the coming months. 

On the whole, even with its chequered history of political development, Nigeria faces a very uncertain future with the issues surrounding the Tinubu certificate saga and it is hardly surprising that this has engendered unease among many people.  

‘’I fear the worst’’ says a retired top security officer among the many I spoke to on this subject. ‘’I have been involved in issues of conflict resolution in this country but the much I can say looking at the issue is that only God can see us through in the coming months”. Most people expressed similar views. 

As Nigerians, Muslims and Christians alike, are known to always call for God’s intervention in the affairs of the country in order for things to be made right, this is perhaps the moment that God has finally decided to answer that abiding call.  

As well may that be, what we have to bear in mind is that in making the call for God’s intervention the consequences and lessons as we have seen in other climes may not turn out the way we wish.