This week last year, two things were enthroned in the Nigerian political space. One was the man, Bola Tinubu, who was sworn in as the president. The other was the myth of the man as a headhunter endowed with a unique instinct for sourcing the right talent and an astute administrator. So much was this idea of Tinubu as administrative capacity believed that his supporters were sure he would—to use the language of former Abia state governor Orji Kalu—forward Nigeria to all forwardness. Well, it is one year now, and we might as well start asking how that myth has fared.

Let me digress here to point out that two kinds of people propagated the myth of Tinubu’s governing capacity. In one category are those you might call the Know-No-Betters. These are those who have never seen—let alone lived in—a properly functioning city and therefore have no frame of comparison when they were told Tinubu would build Nigeria as he built Lagos. They could be beguiled by the travesty of Lagos, a city where property value costs a fortune but cannot even boast of something as basic as potable water because that is the height of their experience. Even when they see the seedy sides of Lagos, their desperation for an idol to worship pushes them to willingly blind themselves to reality by eagerly gorging on glossy photoshopped images of Eko Atlantic. When you can self-soothe with the visuals of utopia, dystopia becomes livable.

Then there are the Dishonest-Know-Betters—the people whose lives and livelihoods depend on peddling lies, distortions, sentiments, and blatantly voiced falsehoods. They have experienced functional societies so they know what we have is subpar but they still tell you it is sufficient. Nigeria’s future does not concern them because they have built a safe house elsewhere where they and their children will forever be untainted by the rottenness of the country.

So, how has the myth of Tinubu as a savvy administrator held up? Well, two separate policies might best illustrate how they have conducted themselves in office so far. On May 29, 2023, Tinubu pronounced the three words that immediately unleashed hardship on Nigerians who had already endured hell under the Muhammadu Buhari administration: subsidy is gone. Now, the issue is not that he removed the subsidy—that was already expected—but he was haphazard about such a significant step.

Here is why: about a month after that pronouncement, he announced that he could announce the decision because he was under the influence of some “spirits.” Please think about that for a moment. The President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria made a decision that would affect the lives and livelihood of millions of people, not because he had sat down and worked out a policy agenda with an economic team, but because he was pushed by some voices in his head? Wow!

If it was some “spirits” that took possession of him and forced the words out of his mouth, it means there was no thorough planning to see how the fuel subsidy removal would work, how to mitigate the resultant suffering, and how to assess if their programme was working. Even worse, it means he cannot fully take responsibility for the fallouts of such a programme since it originated from some forces. Whatever pain and hardship you will experience due to his policy decision is not for him to bear. After all, he only acted under some supernatural influence when he pronounced the policy into effect. That too is worth ruminating over: the man some people convinced themselves would turn Nigeria into a Dubai does not plan.

Then came this year when the same administration that told us that the fuel subsidy that helped to attenuate the economic reality was a waste also approved a whopping N90bn to subsidise the hajj pilgrimage. Again, this is worth a reflection: the man saw Nigerians groan in pain from his fuel subsidy removal and grovelled for help, but looked away. They insisted on delivering the hard shocks because the subsidies were supposedly a waste of resources. They offered “palliatives” instead. Their efforts in this direction were so poorly thought-out and poorly organised that they reversed the plan. So, while they had no answer for the pain of the generality of Nigerians and resolutely watched people suffer, they had no qualms catering to a tiny segment of the population embarking on something as privileged as a religious pilgrimage.

What is worse than Tinubu paying N90bn on the hajj this year is that he has to pay it next year, and the year after, and continue like that, especially as his second term election approaches. If he fails to sustain it, the Muslim population whose vote he is targeting through the humongous expense will not forgive him. Worse still, they would have forgotten what he paid in 2024. He has to keep up the spending. Given the Nigerian penchant to turn virtually any initiative into an avenue to siphon public funds, do not be any surprised if that N90bn starts ballooning yearly. You assess the situation he got himself and long-suffering Nigerians into, and wonder how a man who was so mythicized could unravel that quickly. When it came to administering pain and shock, Tinubu was possessed with the spirits of “courage” and “freedom” as he gayly put it. When it came to standing up to religious and ethnic sentiments, his pandering revealed those spirits as “cowardice” and “economic bondage.”

But that is not only where the legion spirits of indecisiveness have possessed the man. First, he took forever to assemble a cabinet even though he won the election in March. He had enough time to decide on a team; he just took it for granted. By the time he unfolded his team, there was initially some confusion over who had made the list. When the final list was unfolded, it was anything but inspiring. Even some of his supporters who had boasted that he knows how to look for the best people were disappointed by how many of those nominated were recycled from the garbage cans of the past administration. To think they even expanded the cabinet just to take some clowns on board.

He signed the Student Loan Act into law, but they later withdrew it with the promise to return. Till now, they are still fumbling through the launch. He recalled ambassadors from their posts, but it turned out that he had no plans in place to replace them. He also proposed the Green Tax but had to reverse it when the introduction turned out to be ill-timed. Then there were the Import Tax Adjustment Levy, Expatriate Tax, and the Cybersecurity Levy that were introduced but needed to be reversed. He will probably go down in history as the president with the most reversed policies in the history of governance at the rate he is going. Even the construction Lagos-Calabar highway, announced with fanfare, had not been fully thought through. Then the blatant and needless lies such as the UAE visa ban and the Maersk affair suggest that they lack any integrity. If they cannot be honest with even the simple things, why should you trust them on the big things?

Plot all of these together, and you come up with a solid picture of a man whose administration lacks coordination and takes decisions based on what their hormones (and some spirits, of course) dictate. Tinubu’s myth as an efficient administrator that has always been propped up with media propaganda and self-serving intellectuals has severely unravelled, revealing an unpleasant picture of the man, the myth, and the mediocrity. To think we are going through this after “16 years of the Peoples Democratic Party” and “eight years of Buhari.” Add the past one year, and you see 25 directionless years. God help somebody!

Punch

As someone in my 30s, it’s tough to read tips for new grads without cringing. Too often, what now seems like obvious, common-sense advice is something that I blissfully ignored in my 20s.

Every once in a while, though, I get a little jolt when I realize that a younger version of me managed to do something right.

That’s how I felt when I read my colleague Cheyenne Devon's recent writeup from a chat with Ramit Sethi, a self-made millionaire and author of “I Will Teach You to Be Rich.” In it, he offers his No. 1 money tip for new grads.

“You’ve got to invest 10% of your salary every year,” Sethi says. “And at the end of the year, increase that by 1%. Do this for as long as you can and you will be a multimillionaire.”

Hey — I did that! Well, more or less. I didn’t exactly launch a career the second I graduated. I spent a few months making ends meet as a cater-waiter while crashing on friends’ couches. Even if I had money to spare, I wouldn’t have known how to invest it.

Luckily, I landed an internship at a financial magazine with a cubicle next to the editor who helped choose mutual funds for the company 401(k). Soon, 10% of my $12-an-hour salary went into the plan.

The key for new grads isn’t necessarily a particular percentage: It’s starting early and staying consistent. You’ll see a lot of quotes touting the “magic” of compounding interest or calling it the eighth wonder of the world. Really, it’s just math. 

You can use this calculator to see just how powerfully that math works in your favor if you start early.

Say you started contributing $300 a month to a workplace retirement account at age 22 and invested for the next 45 years. If your portfolio earned an annualized return of 7%, you’d end up with a balance north of $1.1 million. 

If you invested the same amount and earned the same return, but instead started at age 30, you’d end up with about $632,000. 

If you're graduating this spring, do yourself a favor and get started soon. Your future self will thank you.

CNBC

A year into President Bola Tinubu’s tenure, the infectious optimism of liberty, economic progress, security, and well-being heralding his inauguration on May 29, 2023, has turned to dying embers. In the President’s first year, all Nigerians see is hopelessness, misery, privations, and pain. The despair is evident in the numbers: the cost-of-living crises, hyperinflation, joblessness, and naira depreciation. Amidst the supercilious backslapping in government circles, poverty, and bloodshed are intensifying. Tinubu should retrace his steps in the remaining years of his tenure to bequeath a redoubtable legacy to the country.

Under Tinubu, Nigeria is a harsh contrast to Abraham Lincoln’s “Democracy is the government of the people, by the people, for the people.” Instead, only a tiny band of politicians, their families, and sycophants are laughing all the way to the bank. From his “subsidy is gone” pronouncement on Inauguration Day, which cancelled petrol subsidies, chronic hardship has defined his tenure.

From N187 per litre pre-Tinubu, petrol now sells between N568/l and N800/l. Without well-implemented safety nets, most citizens have found it difficult to cope with the astronomical rise in transportation and food costs. This has heightened poverty. It stood at 46 per cent in 2023 or 104 million citizens, per the World Bank.

Two other policies have combined to bankrupt citizens. The first is the merger of the naira rates through floatation. The second is the cancellation of subsidies for Band A electricity consumers in April. Consequently, the naira has depreciated significantly. It exchanged at N464 per $1 in May 2023, plunged to N1,900/$1 early in 2024 before trading at around N1,500/$1 currently despite a raft of artificial policies to shore up its value. By February, it had lost 68 per cent of its value.

The impact goes beyond Nigeria. Formerly reckoned as Africa’s largest economy, Nigeria has ceded the top three continental slots to South Africa, Egypt, and Algeria respectively. It is now fourth in Africa with a GDP of $252.73 billion on the back of currency depreciation.

From N68 per kilowatt-hour, the tariff for the Band A segment climbed to N225/kWh before dropping to N206.80/kWh in May.

On the monetary policy side, the Central Bank of Nigeria has moved the benchmark interest rate from 18.50 per cent in May 2023 to 26.25 per cent, after three consecutive hikes in 2024.

All this has jacked up prices, though the Tinubu government is yet to implement a wage review. He met the national minimum wage of N30,000 per month. Businesses are complaining about the increased costs of borrowing funds.

In April, inflation spiked to a 28-year high of 33.69 per cent. Food inflation worsened to 40.63 per cent. Imports are priced steeply because of the depreciation of the naira. This is devastating to everyday living. Medicines are out of reach of citizens.

Tinubu, who has fulfilled his lifelong ambition to govern Nigeria, assumed office during the economic downturn. But there was hope initially of a revival after a largely successful eight-year tenure in Lagos State (1999-2007). In truth, that optimism is blowing in the wind.

Under him, governance is not much different from the preceding era of locusts supervised by the clueless Muhammadu Buhari (2015-2023). Abductions and killings are an epidemic. This is reminiscent of the Biafra Civil War (1967-1970).

While 63,111 died in violence on Buhari’s watch, 6,931 were killed in Tinubu’s first 10 months. Beacon Security and Intelligence counted 2,583 killings in the first quarter under Tinubu. SBM Intelligence reported 4,777 abductions when Tinubu assumed office to early May 2023. The worst-hit states are Plateau, Benue, Kaduna, Niger, Zamfara, Kogi, Katsina and Borno.

Beyond regular meetings with the security chiefs, Tinubu seems to have no strategy for taming the violence. His lack of a plan is seen in the rampage by bandits, Islamic terrorists, Fulani herdsmen attacks on farmers, and abductions across the country. Like Buhari, Tinubu ensconces himself in the Aso Rock fortress without identifying with the victims of violence by visiting the scene of the crime. He should show more empathy.

Undoubtedly, state capture has not receded in the past year. It is business as usual for the degenerate political class. Take the National Assembly. To undertake constituency projects – a cesspool of sleaze – ranking senators directly received between N200 million and N500 million in their accounts. This is wasteful, a brazen extortion of the commonwealth. Strangely, Tinubu applauded the lawmakers, saying “your integrity is intact!” It is not; it is state capture.

Nigeria still suffers from massive electricity shortages under Tinubu. The only good aspect is installed capacity, which hit 14,000 megawatts in 2023. It has not affected supply: the sole national grid often collapses if fed more than 4,000MW.

True, Tinubu inherited a hollow economy with a debt stock of N87 trillion (centre alone). The infrastructure is shabby, needing $150 billion annually over 30 years to bridge, per the World Bank. Social services, particularly education and health, are in a shambles.

Undeniably, it is not all bad news. Apart from speedily delivering the rehabilitation of the Third Mainland Bridge, and the Apapa-Oshodi Expressway in Lagos, the 700-kilometre Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway at N15 trillion over seven years is ambitious. Abandoned since conception in 1978, the Tinubu administration is commencing work on the 1,000km Badagry-Sokoto Highway. This is in addition to the 330 federal roads and bridges the President virtually commissioned on Sunday. Combined, these projects are expected to begin an era of infrastructural renewal. Tinubu should ensure that none of them is abandoned.

Regularly, the military scores big against Islamic terrorists in the North-East. This has limited the reach of the insurgents.

The economy is suffering partly because of the importation of petroleum products. This reportedly gulps between 30 and 40 per cent of forex, putting enormous pressure on the naira. With the Dangote Refinery set to commence the production of petrol, the economy is set for a boost. The positive effect of the Dangote Refinery is already being felt in the cost of diesel.

As he embarks on the second year of his four-year term, Tinubu should govern with more compassion. He should cut back on his travels and be there for Nigerians during celebrations and mourning.

The President’s private sector background should quicken the pace of economic growth to reclaim its pride of place on the continent.

Surprisingly, he has not embarked on privatisation. Tinubu should privatise the refineries, the airports, seaports, the Ajaokuta Steel Company, and the railways. This will save the government on running costs and boost foreign direct investment.

The President should redirect focus on security. Without this, farming and business will continue to depress. There is a growing trend of brutality among the security agencies. They are abducting journalists with impunity. This is against the rule of law. Nigeria is no longer under a military regime so Tinubu should rein in their excesses.

His cabinet is bloated. He should have a compact team of performers to reduce the cost of governance.

Tinubu is toeing the path of his predecessors on restructuring. This is ludicrous. It is wishful thinking to believe that Nigeria will make progress without restructuring. The President should make restructuring a priority. It will unleash Nigeria’s productive capacity, rebuild trust in governance, improve security, and de-escalate inter-ethnic tensions.

Punch

President Bola Tinubu is one year in office today. It is a milestone that evokes serious reflections, given the electoral promises of every occupant of that office and the country’s existential challenges that need to be tackled. A juxtaposition of the two extremes in one year of this administration leaves no one in doubt of a chasm that is apparently galling.

The administration has noticed this incongruity, gauged the public mood and decided to make the anniversary low-key – a revelation the Minister of Information, Mohammed Idris, made. As Tinubu marks one year in office, what may easily and cynically come to many minds could be that off-the-cuff and thunderous declaration, “fuel subsidy is gone,” to the cheers of Bretton Woods institutions, the infamous deities of market-driven economy. The liberalisation of the foreign exchange market followed. These two policies sparked a perfect storm for the economy.

Inflation, their ineluctable consequence, has since then become a bull in a china shop. Insecurity, lopsidedness in political appointments, transparency deficits in governance and disregard for the 1999 Constitution, have equally soared to dwarf Tinubu’s eight-point Renewed Hope Agenda.

To be fair, he inherited an economy on the brink of total collapse, which he was desperate to change. For instance, his predecessor spent about N7.83 trillion in eight years on fuel subsidy. Reports of the NNPC Limited to the Federal Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) showed subsidy payments of N1.57 trillion in 2021, and N1.27 trillion spent from January to May 2022. From June 2022 to June 2023, when its termination was originally programmed, N3 trillion was budgeted for it.

These expenditures stirred national curiosity; in fact, an open charge of monumental fraud, as the state oil behemoth, the NNPC, and even Buhari, as the substantive minister of Petroleum, could not give the exact quantity of daily fuel consumption. This context is critical. Therefore, the Augean Stables required cleansing. Tinubu then took the bull by the horns without delay. His major challengers in the election – former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi – were equally unequivocal in their subsidy removal advocacy, if elected.

But where Tinubu got it wrong, some would argue, was in his hastiness, without prior consultations with the organised labour and other stakeholders, over how to mitigate its inevitable searing pains. There was no cabinet in place then and for quite some time thereafter. Having put the cart before the horse, a raft of palliatives was hurriedly unfurled, as the Nigeria Labour Congress bristled for a showdown.

The packages include unleashing Compressed Natural Gas buses to help cushion the effects of skyrocketing transport fares. The vehicles are not on Nigerian roads just yet. Then the bait of having the Port Harcourt refinery commence fuel production in December 2023, which did not happen, while a newer date of April 2024 has turned out to be a chicanery too. The general implementation of palliatives to the people unfolded as mired in corruption at the centre, for which a minister has remained suspended from office till date, without any prosecution many months after. State governors were granted loans of N2.5 billion each for delivering palliatives, but they were no less irresponsive in the execution.

Admittedly, fuel subsidy removal as a policy change has halted the haemorrhaging of the treasury, and seen to the doubling of the monthly distributable revenue to the three tiers of government. In June last year, N1.9 trillion was in the coffers, but only N907 billion was shared. The April 2024 figure was N1.2 trillion. For accountability, the NNPC now remits oil revenue to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). Tinubu did well with the Jim Obazee inquest into the apex bank’s operations prior to his assumption of office.

In less than a year, the President has raised economic diplomacy a notch higher, with his peripatetic overtures to foreign investors, which have taken him to France, UAE, India, Saudi Arabia and other nations. He has cut deals in some cases. But it’s not yet Uhuru until these morph into visible and enduring investments. Investors’ confidence is gradually being restored, with the CBN’s settling of foreign airlines and additional debt obligations.

However, Nigeria’s unhinged fiscal crisis is evident in the administration’s rapacious procurement of foreign and domestic loans, the rash of asphyxiating taxations, and the naira’s steady devaluation. The Senate had, in December 2023, approved $7.8 billion and €100 million as part of the 2024 borrowing plan framework. This was followed by a $3.3 billion loan from Afrieximbank, thereafter a first tranche of $2 billion to mitigate the hardship of fuel subsidy and a more recent second tranche of $2.25 billion from the World Bank, coupled with the African Development Bank’s credit of $1 billion to the country. Locally, a N4 trillion credit line has just been secured to fund the 2024 budget deficit.

It is bemusing that these debt cravings misalign with the Minister of Finance, Wale Edun’s expert view in November last year that “Internationally and locally, we are not in a position to rely on borrowing” in funding deficits. Instead, he advocated inward-looking. There are avalanche of leakages to be plugged. Unrecovered oil revenues of over $100 billion (documented stolen crude of $17 billion inclusive), evasion of taxes and levies by VIPs, solid minerals wealth surrendered to rogue miners, unrestrained crude oil theft, revenues the MDAs generate but fail to remit, etc.

Of serious concern is the imprudent use of improved revenues under Tinubu’s government. Its N90 billion 2024 Hajj subsidy, amid an economic headwind, is a sickening misplacement of priority. Christians would expect a balancing act, which will further bleed the treasury. States still owe salaries and pensions. On Tinubu’s watch, the Vice President’s residence cost some N15 billion to build; and the National Assembly splurged N57.6 billion on Sports Utility Vehicles (SUV) for its members. Yet, our universities are grossly underfunded.

The administration is being chafed at, for embarking on a Lagos-Calabar coastal highway construction of 700 kilometres at a tentative cost of N15 trillion, when scores of existing highways remain death traps. The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) says 367 companies closed as of December 2023. Out of those still in business, 335 are in distress, while N350 billion worth of goods were not sold.

No economy thrives with an encumbered real sector. Nigeria’s unfriendly Ease of Doing Business has multiple taxations and high energy costs as pivots. Aliko Dangote emphasised it at the recent convention of Africa’s CEOs in Kigali, Rwanda, last week, that out of every N100 he makes in cement manufacturing, taxation takes N54. The CEO of TotalEnergies, Patrick Pouyanne, rubbed it in with his disclosure that his company snubbed Nigeria for Angola, in their $6 billion investment because of its policy flip-flops.

Tinubu has not demonstrated statecraft in allowing workers’ salaries to remain the same, one year after his economic policies unleashed the harshest hardship on Nigerians. Edo and Cross River states have offered N70,000 as against the Federal Government’s N57,000 minimum wage proposal last week. The indexations it might have used for the figure mismatch the headline inflation at 33.69 per cent – the highest in 28 years, and April’s food inflation at 40.53 per cent, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The situation is dire for Nigerians, especially for the unemployed, and the over 133 million Nigerians judged in 2022 as being multi-dimensionally poor. A litre of fuel, which sold for N185 a year ago, is currently selling between N750 and N800. Worse is the fact that it is scarce. Mid last year, a 50-kilogramme bag of rice was sold between N42,000 and N50,000. It soared to N90,000 in February, and now it costs N80,000. Besides foodstuffs, the cost of medicines, school fees, and house rents are on the same stratospheric trajectory.

Across a broad spectrum of Nigerians, visceral anger, alongside the din over hunger and suffering, is common. It took the IMF disclosure that subsidies are still being covertly paid on fuel to neuter official denial. This is rank recklessness and duplicity in governance.

Sadly, insecurity has been as eerie as the economy. Banditry and kidnapping are everywhere. The North-West and North-Central remain rivulets of the blood of thousands killed by non-state actors. Farmers, afraid of being killed or kidnapped, can’t farm any more. Tinubu’s recognition of this, perhaps, is the reason for his support of state policing as part of resetting Nigeria’s security Doctrine and Architecture, which he promised.

In a democracy, a president is not above the law. He seems indifferent to this canon with his flagrant violation of Section 14 (3) of the Constitution, which outlaws nepotism and ethnic imbalance in political appointments, in order to promote national unity. His Yoruba ethnic stock is in charge of the Ministry of Finance, Central Bank, Federal Inland Revenue Service, Army, Police, Justice Ministry, Supreme Court, Customs, Immigration, EFCC, Ministry of Power, Office of the Chief of Staff and, Petroleum ministry, which he personally mans. This is certainly not an acceptable way of managing Nigeria’s diversity.

All things considered, the weight of the Constitution that makes the welfare and security of citizens the primary purpose of government, reduces Tinubu’s Renewed Hope mantra to a spectral gambit.

Nigeria’s inability to supply enough crude to Dangote Refinery; oil companies’ resort to the use of badges to ship their crude to export terminals, instead of through oil pipelines as oil theft escalates; the lack of due process in major road contracts; the indulgence of corrupt Customs personnel, while sparing looters of the Humanitarian ministry, are poignant echoes that dim whatever is the glaze of his stewardship so far.

Only a handful of ministers are active. The President needs to review the performance of his team, going forward, and in order to salvage whatever is possible of his dissolving electoral promises to Nigerians.

PT

Nigeria’s democracy clocks a quarter-century today, a long time for a country only five scores and 10. How should we take stock? There is something to cheer about, no doubt, but on the whole, these have been 25 years of missed opportunities and what could have been.

That Nigeria has remained one indivisible nation, despite the centrifugal forces unleashed by conflicting ethno-religious and regional cleavages, is certainly something to cheer. A stretch of 25 long years of unbroken and uninterrupted democracy in Nigeria is surely something to cheer about, too, whatever its many imperfections.  Constitutional development has been slow and frustrating, but ongoing.

The many amendments made to the 1999 Constitution, since it came into effect this day 25 years ago, have combined to make Nigeria more federal. There are more items in the Concurrent List in our constitution today than in 1999. The quality and integrity of our national elections have also improved markedly, culminating in a peaceful election transition between two different parties for the first time in our history in 2015.

Beyond these, there have also been modest improvements in socio-economic development too. Nigeria’s economy is today the largest economy in Africa, with a GDP well above $400 billion. The middle class, previously wholly marginalised, has grown in size, now accounting for about 23% of the population and purchasing power in excess of $28 billion annually. Economic sectors, like the creative industries, banking, telecoms and the digital economy have grown remarkably over the past 25 years, even if still lopsided nationally. Access to education, particularly higher education, has likewise expanded considerably, from less than 40 universities in 1999, for example, to more than 170 today, even though the quality of degrees and other certificates churned out annually remains a serious concern.

Yet, all of these are no more than a story of what could have been. In many big countries like Nigeria, politics is deeply rooted to a clear national philosophy: whether to stay ahead of the world or to catch up with it. In Nigeria, however, our politics still lacks any sense of an underlying higher purpose. Politicians and political parties routinely fight for power by all means but for hardly any identifiable collective mission other than self-aggrandisement or enrichment. Almost no politician or party has articulated a higher purpose for politics or imagined a new vision for Nigeria that citizens can value and follow. The result is largely a politics of empty rhetoric, violence, intimidation and the wanton use of money to get elected, which then throws up leaders at all levels who have little idea about what to do once in office.  

The chief arenas for this purposeless politics in Nigeria are the political parties, in government or in opposition. In many a functional democracy, political parties are the guardian angels, not just of government but of democracy itself. They generate policy ideas, actively identify leadership talent for governing or organising, and campaign to raise funds and votes for a chance to implement those ideas. Nigerian political parties are anything but functional or democratic. It is not just that our parties have been unwilling or unable to develop enduring forms of internal democracy; it is that they are effectively anti-democracy. They have neither the interest nor the capacity for generating sound policy ideas, let alone to actively search for leadership talent that will embody those ideas to win elections or form serious governments.

Whether at the federal, state, local government or ward levels, our political parties are a one-man show—usually the highest bidder—who controls the entire machinery of the party for their own personal or patronage ends. Particularly at the local levels, our political parties are peopled by memberships that are frequently unemployed and uneducated, and lacking political ideology of any kind; they are available for purchase by all bidders during primary elections. This is why the most corrupt and violent elections are those that take place within the political parties, rather than between them. The result is a democracy without democratic politics and a political leadership without vision or meaningful purpose.  

These deficiencies of political leadership are most manifest in economic and security policies. More than half of Nigerians (63% or over 133 million) are “multi-dimensionally poor”, according to the government’s own figures. Yet, no government or party has fashioned out any home-grown and context-sensitive policies for lifting millions of Nigerians out of misery. Instead, since 1999, we have seen only an intensification of externally induced neoliberal economic policies that are designed to gloss over the problem, not seriously tackle it.

From former President Obasanjo’s economic empowerment programme, lifted straight out of the World Bank’s “poverty alleviation strategy” documents, to current President Tinubu’s “remove subsidy from everything” policy, the role of the Nigerian state in economic management has been shrinking, even as poverty has been worsening and the government itself has been expanding and spending an increasingly larger share of the annual budgets on itself.  Of the security of life and property, the less said. Nigeria is now not just almost ungovernable, but effectively ungoverned, except when clamping down on citizens.

Nowhere is this sorry state of affairs in politics and governance more evident than in the states. Nigeria is now effectively a country of 36 emperors and one president, because there is far more democratic accountability at the federal level than in the states, individually or collectively. One evidence of this is the total collapse of the local government system, which for all intents and purposes, has long ceased to be a tier of government in any sense of the term. The state legislatures, which are supposed to ensure checks and balances, are today, worse than rubber stamp legislatures: they are no stamps at all. In the past, even during the military, state executive cabinets were agents of subnational development as commissioners and permanent secretaries contributed to policy formulation and led their implementation within their own ministries or departments. Today, a commissioner in most Nigerian states is worth scarcely higher than the Governor’s Personal Assistant (PA), or worse, within the state’s governing structure.

The airwaves and the newspapers will be filled today with lengthy speeches by leaders at all levels thumping their achievements. But after 25 years of democratic governance, this is the Daily Trust’s independent balance sheet on behalf of Nigerians, and it is only the tip of the iceberg.

The Nigerian economy has faced severe challenges during President Bola Tinubu's first year in office, exacerbating the poor economic legacy left by former President Muhammadu Buhari. Afenifere calls for a better understanding of the economy to address the alarming rates of inflation, Naira devaluation, unemployment, homelessness, and poverty. Key concerns are outlined below:

1. Subsidy Removals and Tax Increases: The belief that removing subsidies and increasing taxes will stimulate economic growth is flawed. Former British Prime Minister Winston Churchill once said, “for a nation to try to tax itself into prosperity is like a man standing in a bucket and trying to lift himself up by the handle.” Prosperous nations stimulate their economies with subsidies in energy, agriculture, and transportation. The current policy of subsidy removal and tax increases is contracting the economy, with companies folding due to skyrocketing fuel and electricity costs, leading to inflation and declining real incomes.

2. Interest Rate Hikes: The Tinubu administration's reliance on monetary policy has resulted in raising the Monetary Policy Rate to 26.25% from 18.5% a year earlier, and the Cash Reserve Ratio to 45% from 32.5%. These policies are crowding out productive sectors from accessing loans. The hikes in interest rates are ineffective in curbing inflation because the withheld loans flow to a government that spends recklessly, pumping the funds back into the markets.

3. Energy Costs: Energy is crucial to the economy, and most nations subsidize it. Removing fuel subsidies when the global average for fuel subsidies to GDP is 7.1%, compared to Nigeria's 2%, is illogical. The ratio of all subsidies to government expenditure for over 200 million people is about 25%, which is half the cost of governance enjoyed by just 1% of the population.

4. Local Refining and Electricity: The government's failure to enable local refineries for petrol production and gas for thermal plants should have been addressed with emergency measures. Instead of subsidizing electricity generation and distribution, the government increased electricity costs without significant new investment, thus profiteering on existing stock without boosting productive capacity. High energy costs hinder productivity and employment.

5. Naira Devaluation: Floating the Naira without regulating market speculators and hoarders, in a nation with 90% of its foreign exchange derived from oil and gas, has led to massive devaluation. Government funding should stimulate the economy, not just fund the excessive cost of governance.

6. Foreign Exchange Market Stability: Stability in the foreign exchange market is crucial for domestic price stability and investor confidence. Current policies have led to capital flight, with existing investors not making additional investments and new ones hesitant to enter the market.

7. Import and Debt Misconceptions: Nigeria's import bill is only 16% of GDP, and its debt-to-GDP ratio of 39.8% is below the global acceptable rate of 60%. The main issue is not exporting enough due to theft of crude oil and poor governance. The government’s wastefulness cannot justify punishing the populace with increased taxes.

8. Proper Accounting and Security: The government must ensure accurate accounting of mined resources and strengthen security to protect economic production facilities. Multi-level policing is necessary to secure lives and property, enabling meaningful economic activities.

9. Taxation Policies: The focus on increasing the tax-to-GDP ratio from 6.7% to 18% is misguided. The informal sector, which provides 90% of employment and 60% of income, will suffer from increased taxes without corresponding government social benefits. The current taxation mindset disproportionately affects the poor.

10. Long-term Economic Vision: The administration lacks a vision for long-term economic growth that could provide high-paying jobs. Investing in infrastructure, such as railways, would have significant multiplier effects on the economy, unlike the current emphasis on expensive projects like the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway.

11. Short-term Revenue Solutions: The government must address low revenue by ensuring accountability of oil revenues and investigating the utilization of foreign debts, which rose significantly under the APC with no substantial infrastructure improvement.

At the end of Tinubu's first year, the question remains whether the continued economic stagnation is due to corruption or incompetence. From failing to mine and refine crude oil to unjustified loans and high governance costs, the people bear the consequences. This "monkey work, baboon chop" economic policy must end to prevent further damage to Nigeria's sociopolitical fabric.

Signed:

Justice Faloye,

Publicity Secretary, Afenifere

In his inaugural speech on 29 May, 2023, President Bola Tinubu vowed to tackle the lingering insecurity in the country.

“Security shall be the top priority of our administration because neither prosperity nor justice can prevail amidst insecurity and violence,” the new president declared in his inauguration speech at the Eagle Square, Abuja, promising to overhaul the sector.

“To effectively tackle this menace, we shall reform both our security doctrine and its architecture. We shall invest more in our security personnel, and this means more than an increase in number. We shall provide better training, equipment, pay, and firepower,” he added.

It was not the first time Tinubu would make promises of improved security. He had in countless pre and post-election appearances made such assertions.

However, one year after he assumed office as president, almost all parts of the country still suffer one form of insecurity or the other. Although one year may not be enough to judge the success or otherwise of an administration, there has been no significant improvement in the security sector from where Tinubu’s predecessor, Muhammadu Buhari, left it.

Indeed, the menace continued unabated, resulting in more than 4,556 fatalities and 7,086 abductions between 29 May 2023 and 22 May 2024, according to data gathered from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), a global data hub that collects real-time conflict-related data.

Two months after his inaugural pledge to improve national security, Tinubu expressed satisfaction with the performance of the service chiefs he had just appointed barely a month earlier.

Over 4,000 killed, 7,000 others kidnappedbetween 29 May 2023 and 22 May 2024

“We have seen that we are recording positive results in our security challenges because of your dedication, commitment and steadfastness,” he told the Chief of Defence Staff, Christopher Musa, and three other service chiefs at their decoration ceremony in Abuja.

But killings and abductions keep making headlines.

Insurgency, banditry, resources-based conflict reign in the north

An analysis of the ACLED data by PREMIUM TIMES shows that the six geo-political zones, including the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja, experienced several violent incidents within the period under review.

Banditry-thorn North-west leads other regions with 1,475 deaths and 4,343 abductions.

The trio of Kaduna, Katsina and Zamfara states prominently featured as violence hotspots, accounting for 551 out of 718 incidents recorded in the region.

In the North-central, 552 incidents of banditry, farmers-herders conflict and cultism claimed at least 1,444 lives, including military and local security forces.

In addition, about 1,321 abductions were recorded in the region.

Insurgency, banditry and other forms of violence in the North-east also resulted in at least 819 deaths and 688 abductions. These were recorded from 408 violent incidents in the region.

Cultism, militancy and other vices in the south

In a total of 231 violent incidents majorly revolving around cultism and militancy, the South-south zone witnessed at least 336 deaths and 295 abductions.

A similar pattern of violence, including separatist agitations and extrajudicial killings, claimed about 310 lives in the South-east where 214 others were kidnapped.

In the South-west, cultism, banditry and other forms of violence killed at least 172 civilians as 225 others were abducted.

Major terror incidents recorded under Tinubu

Tinubu had barely spent three months in office when his administration was quaked with the killings of 36 military personnel responding to terror threats in some communities in Niger State on 14 August.

That same day, the terror group led by notorious Dogo Gide also shot downa military aircraft on a rescue mission, although the Nigerian Air Force said it was an accident.

Three months later, Nigerians woke to shocking news from Bokkos and Mangu local government areas of Plateau State where over 100 locals were killed on Christmas eve. Violence continued in the area for a while with a series of attacks and reprisals.

In March this year, armed terrorists abducted 137 students from elementary schools in Kuriga, Chikun LGA, Kaduna State. The students were set free two weeks later, after an undisclosed amount of ransom was paid.

That same month, 15 military operatives consisting of two majors, one captain, and 12 soldiers of the 181 Amphibious Battalion, Nigerian Army, were killed by raging youth in Okuama village, Ughelli South LGA of Delta State.

The military operatives were on a mission to restore normalcy between two warring communities — Okuama and Okoloba in Bomadi LGA — when they were surrounded by their killers.

Tinubu: Winning the security war?

Although the country suffered huge fatalities within the period under review, the terrorists were not spared either.

The ACLED data shows that sustained military operations and infighting among terror groups resulted in about 4,165 terrorist casualties.

Speaking at a combined convocation ceremony of Usmanu Danfodiyo University (UDUS), the National Security Adviser (NSA), Nuhu Ribadu, highlighted the approaches the government was taking to end the multifaceted violence across the country.

“On the kinetic front, the Nigerian military is conducting numerous operations targeting insurgent groups like Boko Haram and bandits operating in Northern Nigeria,” the NSA stated, adding that several operations had been launched to “root out insurgents and criminals from their strongholds, dismantle their networks, and restore law and order in affected areas.”

Ribadu added that such coordinated operations led to the death of high profile terrorists like Ali Kawaje.

According to him, intelligence gathering and sharing had been prioritised “as a crucial component of its kinetic efforts to address insecurity in the region.”

“Our non-kinetic strategies and approach are driven by evidence,” Ribadu continued. “We have strengthened the administration of criminal justice by reopening trials of Boko Haram terrorism suspects detained in Kanji and other locations across the country and prosecutions are now underway in eight different courts.”

“Concurrently, we have significantly reduced the proliferation of arms nationwide by blocking the flows and arresting gunrunners. With new appointments at the National Centre on Small Arms and Light Weapons (NCSALW), we are poised to launch even more robust initiatives,” he added.

However, a security expert, Kabir Adamu, said the president has not yet addressed the root causes of insecurity in the country despite all the investment in the sector.

Adamu, who is the Chief Executive Officer of Beacon Security and Intelligence, applauded the military’s operations against terrorists.

He, however, argued that continued proliferation of arms, drug abuse, ungoverned borders, ineffective justice administration system and inability to implement adaptation measures to combat climate change are some of the root causes of insecurity that the government has not addressed.

Adamu also advised that state governors should be actively involved in national security arrangements.

PT

US says latest Rafah deaths won't change Israel policy, military aid

The Biden administration said on Tuesday it was closely monitoring the probe into a deadly Israeli airstrike it called tragic, but that the recent deaths in Rafah didn't constitute a major ground operation there that crosses any U.S. red lines.

"The Israelis have said this is a tragic mistake," National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters at the White House, when asked about whether the events over the weekend qualified as the type of "death and destruction" U.S. officials have warned could result in the withholding of more aid to Israel.

The U.S. doesn't have "a measuring stick here or a quota," Kirby said.

"We've also said we don't want to see a major ground operation in Rafah that would really make it hard for the Israelis to go after Hamas without causing extensive damage and potentially a large number of deaths. We have not seen that yet," he said, noting that Israel's operations were mostly in a corridor on the outskirts of Rafah.

Asked if he was saying the recent ground operations in Rafah would not prompt a U.S. withdrawal of more military aid, Kirby said "I believe that's what I've been saying here."

Recent deaths in Rafah have tested President Joe Biden's promise to withhold weapons from Israel if the U.S. ally made a major invasion of Rafah that put displaced persons there at risk.

Speaking at a ceremonial event in Washington, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris said, "The word tragic doesn't even begin to describe" an Israeli airstrike on Sunday that triggered a fire in a tent camp in the Gaza city of Rafah, killing 45 Palestinians.

Harris's remark, in response to a reporter's question, also followed what Gaza health authorities described as Israeli tank shelling of a tent camp in an evacuation area west of Rafah that killed at least 21 people on Tuesday.

Israel said that "something unfortunately went tragically wrong" in Sunday's airstrike while its military denied shelling the tent camp on Tuesday. Israel said it had targeted two senior Hamas operatives in Sunday's operation and had not intended to cause civilian casualties.

Hamas issued a statement celebrating the martyrdom of two fighters in the strike on Sunday, Kirby said, an indication that Israel was trying to go after Hamas in a "targeted, precise way."

"The Israelis have said they used 37-pound bombs, precision-guided munitions," Kirby said. "If it is in fact what they used, it is certainly indicative of an effort to be discreet and targeted and precise. Now, obviously this had tragic results, and obviously that needs to be investigated.”

Asked whether Israel's strikes could put Biden in a difficult position, Kirby told reporters Tuesday that instead there was a real danger that Israel could become further isolated from the international community with the manner in which it is conducting operations."So this is of concern, clearly, because it's not in Israel's best interest," Kirby said. "And it's not in our best interest for Israel to become increasingly isolated on the world stage."

The U.S. administration's response was criticized earlier Tuesday by human rights and Arab American groups.

"Sadly, because of Biden's insistence on sending more bombs to enable Netanyahu's war crimes in Rafah, this is now as much an American genocide as it is an Israeli genocide," said Nihad Awad, executive director at the Council on American-Islamic Relations.

Israeli and U.S. officials have denounced the use of the term genocide to describe events on the ground in Gaza.

The State Department said on Tuesday that as soon as it saw reports of Sunday's Rafah incident, Washington expressed deep concern to Israel and urged an investigation, which Israel has promised.

State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller told reporters that Washington will be closely watching Israel's probe but Israel's military operations so far in Rafah have not been as large-scale as those in central or northern Gaza.

Global leaders have expressed horror at the fire in a designated "humanitarian zone" of Rafah where families uprooted by fighting elsewhere had sought shelter.

More than 36,000 Palestinians have been killed in Israel's offensive, Gaza's health ministry says. Israel launched its air and ground war after Hamas-led militants attacked southern Israeli communities on Oct. 7, killing around 1,200 people and seizing more than 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies.

Reuters

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Putin warns West not to let Ukraine use its missiles to hit Russia

Summary

Putin hints at risk of global conflict

Putin warns West over Ukrainian strikes inside Russia

President singles out European NATO members

Russian President Vladimir Putin warned the West on Tuesday that NATO members in Europe were playing with fire by proposing to let Ukraine use Western weapons to strike inside Russia, which he said could trigger a global conflict.

More than two years into the deadliest land war in Europe since World War Two, as the West considers what to do about Russian military advances, Putin is increasingly evoking the risk of a global war, while Western leaders play it down.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told the Economist that alliance members should let Ukraine strike deep into Russia with Western weapons, a view supported by some European members of the transatlantic alliance but not the United States.

Russian forces have advanced into Ukraine's Kharkiv province safe in the knowledge that Ukraine cannot attack missile launchers being fired deep inside Russia because it cannot use the Western missiles that have the required range.

Meanwhile, Western-made air defences cannot attempt to down Russian rockets until they cross the Ukrainian border, only 25 km (15 miles) or so from Ukraine's second city, Kharkiv.

"Constant escalation can lead to serious consequences," Putin told reporters in Tashkent in Uzbekistan.

"If these serious consequences occur in Europe, how will the United States behave, bearing in mind our parity in the field of strategic weapons?"

"It's hard to say - do they want a global conflict?"

Putin said Ukrainian strikes with long-range weapons would need Western satellite, intelligence and military help - so the West would have to be directly involved in such attacks.

He said sending French troops to Ukraine would also be a step towards global conflict and that smaller countries considering deeper involvement "should be aware of what they are playing with" as they had small land areas and dense populations.

"This is a factor that they should keep in mind before talking about striking deep into Russian territory. This is a serious thing, and we are of course watching it very closely," Putin said.

RUSSIAN ADVANCES TRIGGER DEBATE IN WEST

Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 touched off the worst breakdown in relations with the West for 60 years.

The invasion has caused the deaths of tens of thousands of Ukrainian civilians, driven millions to flee abroad, and reduced neighbourhoods and whole cities to rubble.

Putin casts the war as part of a struggle with the West, which he says is exploiting Ukraine as part of a wider plan to encroach on what he considers Moscow's sphere of influence.

The West and Ukraine cast the attack as a simple land grab: Russia controls 18% of Ukraine, and the crisis is now escalating into what diplomats say is its most dangerous phase.

Russian officials say Moscow's patience is wearing thin after Ukrainian attacks on Russian cities, oil refineries and elements of its nuclear early-warning system.

Putin said Kyiv and its Western backers had provoked Russia's offensive on the Kharkiv region by ignoring repeated warnings not to let Ukraine attack the adjacent Russian region of Belgorod.

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Ukraine likely inflated own combat successes – Forbes

Ukraine has likely exaggerated the number of reported downings of Russian aircraft, Forbes wrote on Monday. The American business magazine analyzed the statements made by Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky and the country’s Defense Ministry and came to the conclusion that not all of them can be independently verified. 

Kiev claimed that its 110th Mechanized Brigade had shot down seven Russian Su-25 attack aircraft between May 4 and May 25. And yet, only two supposed shootdowns were backed by some sort of visual evidence, Forbes noted, referring to “a grainy photo of something burning on the ground,” and a video that “might depict a missile hitting a low-flying jet,”respectively. 

“The only other visual ‘evidence’ the 110th Mechanized Brigade has offered actually comes from a video game,” the magazine said. It argued that “more likely, the 110th Mechanized Brigade has shot down at most two Russian attack jets in less than a month.”

Forbes cited data from the Oryx monitoring website that said that Russia has lost at least 29 Su-25 since it launched its military operation in Ukraine in February 2022. Both Moscow and Kiev rarely reveal their own casualties and equipment losses. 

The Russian Defense Ministry reported that its Su-25s participated in around a dozen of air raids on Ukrainian positions this month alone. According to the Russian MD, Ukraine has lost 604 military planes and 274 helicopters since the fighting began. 

According to Forbes, the 110th Mechanized Brigade suffered heavy losses during the battle for the strategic Donbass city of Avdeevka and was ultimately forced to retreat in February 2024, “leaving behind potentially hundreds of casualties.” Like many other Ukrainian units, the brigade has been plagued with ammunition shortage prompted by the delays in Western supplies. 

Kiev has consistently asked its Western supporters for the US-made F-16 fighter planes, arguing that they are essential for gaining an upper hand on the battlefield. Belgium pledged on Tuesday to supply Ukraine with 30 F-16s until 2028. Russia, meanwhile, has repeatedly warned that no amount of foreign aid would change the outcome of the conflict. 

Reuters/RT

Mohammed Ladan Tsamiya probably believed he was a commodities trader who happened also to moonlight as a Justice of the Court of Appeal. To him, both vocations seemed to provide mutually reinforcing revenue streams. Sometimes, he transacted business as one, while doing the other. In keeping with this tendency, it was an unsuccessful transaction in the sale of beans that brought his vocation as a judge to an untimely end.

The story began with the 2015 elections. In Abia State, South-East Nigeria, the parliamentary elections in 2015 were not without controversy. Nnamdi Iro Oji, a losing candidate in those elections, filed a petition with the National Judicial Council (NJC) in January 2016, levying serious allegations of misconduct against Tsamiya. What follows is from the 19-page report of the NJC Investigation Committee into these allegations. Sunday Akintan, a retired Supreme Court justice, chaired the NJC’s investigation committee into Oji’s complaint. The other members of the Committee were Hakila Yalla Hemman, then chief judge of Gombe State; and Aloy Nweke Nwankwo, chief judge of Ebonyi State.

Oji complained that around 12 October 2015, after the conclusion of first instance proceedings in his case at the Abia State Election Petition Tribunal in Umuahia, the capital of Abia State, he got introduced to someone “who was in the system”, who took him to a house in Sokoto, North-West Nigeria, where they met with Tsamiya. After condemning the election petition tribunal as having been “influenced”, Tsamiya advised Oji to write a petition to the President of the Court of Appeal requesting a change in the composition of the Court of Appeal panel in Owerri. His application was granted but he was “shocked when he saw that Tsamiya was one of those sent to Owerri Judicial Division to handle the appeal.”

Over a sequence of encounters which occurred in Sokoto, Gwarimpa (Abuja), and Owerri in Imo State, according to Oji, Tsamiya requested him to provide N200 million “to enable him discuss with the three (3) Justices who were to handle the appeal to influence the court’s decision in his favour.” When he seemed reluctant, the Justice of Appeal warned Oji that failure to deliver the requisitioned sum or a substantial part thereof “may bring a shocking outcome to the appeal.” Specifically, Tsamiya advised Oji that “the funds which should be in foreign currency should be brought to him in his private residence in Owerri, Imo State, which was where they met.” Despite having a strong case on the facts, the decision in Oji’s appeal went the way that Tsamiya had predicted after he failed to deliver the funds demanded.

These allegations may have been staggering in their substance, but Tsamiya’s response was not lacking in invention or audacity. According to him, this was a tale of a sale of beans gone awry. Sometime in November 2015, he said, three persons “one Hausa and his two Igbo friends met him in Sokoto and the Hausa man introduced himself as a buyer of beans and ginger which His Lordship said he had in commercial quantities.” He reportedly “assumed that the two Igbos were also interested in buying the commodities.” It was in the course of these conversations, according to Tsamiya, that “one of them” reportedly asked for his assistance in connection with a pending case at the Court of Appeal. He claimed he declined, telling them that he could not help because he was not their lawyer. The discussions over the sale of beans – according to Tsamiya – subsequently broke down and could not be consummated.

Unsurprisingly, Tsamiya’s story of mixing commodity trading with judging proved to be unconvincing. In their report delivered on 22 September 2016, the committee of investigation found the case against Tsamiya to be “credible” and recommended sanctions against him. Eight days later, on 30 September 2016, the NJC announced its decision to compulsorily retire him from judicial service.

12 years earlier, it was arguably their inclination to do what Nigerians call “chopping alone” that ultimately ended the careers of two other senior Justices of the Court of Appeal, Okwuchukwu Opene and David Adeniji. In 2004, the NJC recommended the dismissal of both Justices of Appeal, after they collected sundry items of bribery, including N15 million and N12 million respectively, to award the contest for the Anambra South senatorial constituency in the 2003 general election to Ugochukwu Uba, who was not a candidate in the contest. James Ogebe, the senior Justice of Appeal then who headed the Court of Appeal panel drafted to Enugu to replace them after the scandal broke recalls in his memoirs that “there was clear evidence of bribery…. They brought a bag containing the money that was not properly closed. A cook who was cooking for them inside the official house even saw it. He was the one who carried the bag inside. They just gave him N10,000 from it.”

Eight years after the end of Tsamiya’s experiment in occupational cross-dressing ended his career, in May 2024, the NJC announced that they “cautioned” Amina Shehu, a judge of the High Court of Yobe State “for issuing Writ of Possession Conferring Title on the Defendant in Suit No YBS/HC/NNR/1cv/2020 when there was no subsisting judgement (sic) of any Court to enable His Lordship issue the Writ.” In ordinary parlance, the issuing of a writ of possession in the absence of an underlying judgment would be a felony crime of burglary, theft, conversion, or stealing. If committed by an ordinary citizen, such a crime would almost certainly have an additional element of fraud. Any person who can commit such an act surely should have no place in any judicial service worth its name. By concluding that the appropriate sanction in such a case is a mere “caution”, the NJC makes it difficult to distinguish a judge from the criminals whom they are supposed to hold to account.

These three cases discussed here hardly differed in terms of gravity. Instead of accountability, the judiciary, especially under the outgoing Chief Justice, Olukayode Ariwoola, has converted the myth of judicial independence into a charter for judicial impunity. In the case of Tsamiya, the Independent Corrupt Practices Commission (ICPC) did launch an investigation after the conclusion of the disciplinary process by the NJC, leading to his arrest. He was later arraigned for trial before the High Court of Imo State in Owerri in July 2019. Five months before the trial, however, in February 2019, the National Industrial Court of Nigeria (NICN) in Abuja, presided over by the recently deceased Noelita Agbakoba as judge, set aside the decision of the NJC for having been reached in violation of relevant provisions of the Judicial Discipline Regulations. Under Olukayode Ariwoola – as a discerning tweep has pointed out – “Someone who sprayed Naira got 6 months. Someone who issued a warrant of possession without a preceding judgement got a warning.”

Over the 20-year period that separates the disciplinary cases concerning Okwuchukwu Opene and David Adeniji in 2004; Tsamiya in 2016; and Amina Shehu in 2024, the sanction issued by the NJC for judicial misconduct of a criminal nature became attenuated from dismissal through compulsory retirement to a mere love letter, signalling the collapse of judicial discipline and accountability in the country under Ariwoola as Chief Justice of Nigeria.

Over that time horizon, judicial process in the public perception became somewhat tarnished to a mere transaction in which outcomes are more likely than not to be determined by a quid pro quo between litigants and the presiding officers, and not by the strength of the evidence or a fair and dispassionate application of the norms. At the special session of the Supreme Court to usher in the new legal year, organised on 27 November 2023, Ebun Sofunde, who addressed the court on behalf of the Body of Senior Advocates of Nigeria (BOSAN), captured this well when he warnedthat judicial reputation “is at an all-time low… to a point where it may no longer be redeemable.” This sums up the state of Nigeria’s judiciary 25 years into elective government.

** Chidi Anselm Odinkalu, a professor of law, teaches at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy and can be reached through This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..