Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves have fallen by $1.8bn in 10 weeks, according to data from the Central Bank of Nigeria.

As of May 29, 2024, the country’s FX reserves were $32.69bn, down from $34.44bn as of March 18. This decline signifies a drop from the $36.1bn recorded in May 2023.

The reserves have been declining steadily over the past few months, with a total decrease of $3.4bn since February 2024.

Experts believe that the decline in FX reserves is attributed to a combination of factors, including debt repayment, a significant decline in oil exports, a decrease in foreign investment, and a rise in imports.

Debt repayment recorded by the apex bank as of January 2024 was $560m, it reduced to $283.29m in February and then $276.16m in March 2024. Experts claim that the apex bank must have been servicing the foreign debts from the external reserves.

In May, the naira ended the month weaker, despite a surge in dollar supply amounting to $4.60 billion in the official foreign exchange market.

The FX market closed for the month on Friday with the naira losing 5.60per cent as the dollar was quoted at N1,485.99, weaker than N1,402.67 quoted at the beginning of the month, according to data from the FMDQ Securities Exchange Limited.

The foreign exchange market closed for May 2024, with the dollar selling for N1,470, weaker than N1,380 quoted at the beginning of the month.

The currency’s performance this week reflects a significant struggle to maintain its value amidst fluctuating forex turnover and investor sentiment.

Nigeria’s economy is heavily reliant on oil exports, which account for over 90 per cent of its foreign exchange earnings.

Financial experts noted that the decline in FX reserves had led to a weakening of the naira, Nigeria’s currency, which has been struggling against the US dollar.

The naira has lost over 50 per cent of its value against the dollar since the beginning of 2024, making it one of the worst-performing currencies in Africa.

Punch

In the wake of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) revoking Heritage Bank's operating license, the Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC) has announced measures to ensure depositors receive their funds.

The NDIC assured depositors they would be compensated up to N5 million using their Bank Verification Number (BVN) to identify alternate accounts within the banking system. Bashir Nuhu, the NDIC’s spokesperson, stated on Monday that depositors with alternate bank accounts will receive payments up to the insured amount of N5 million. The BVN system will facilitate a smooth and efficient transfer of funds, aiming to protect depositors and maintain confidence in the banking sector.

“We are fully prepared to step in and ensure that depositors are protected. Our immediate priority is to guarantee that depositors have access to their insured funds with minimal disruption,” the NDIC said.

For those with funds exceeding N5 million, payment will be made through liquidation dividends once the bank's assets are realised and debts are recovered. The NDIC also emphasized that depositors' funds are secure, and robust mechanisms are in place to manage the transition.

The NDIC will oversee the resolution of Heritage Bank, including verifying and paying insured deposits, and managing the bank’s assets and liabilities to maximize recovery and minimize losses to the financial system.

Depositors without alternate bank accounts will need to visit the nearest Heritage Bank branch with proof of account ownership, a verifiable identity card (driver’s license, permanent voter’s card, or National Identity Card), alternate account details, and BVN for verification and payment of the insured sum.

Alternatively, affected customers can file a claim online via the NDIC website, by downloading and filling out the claims form, and uploading the required documents. Creditors should visit the nearest Heritage Bank branch or use the online platform to file their claims. The payment process for creditors will commence after all depositors have been compensated. Debtors are advised to contact the NDIC’s Asset Management Department (AMD) to complete their loan repayments.

Earlier, PREMIUM TIMES reported that Heritage Bank customers faced difficulties accessing their funds despite the bank notifying customers of a "system refresh exercise" on May 13. Despite the bank's claims that the exercise had concluded, many customers remained stranded at various branches as of Monday.

Consequently, the CBN revoked Heritage Bank's license on Monday, appointing the NDIC as the bank's liquidator per Section 12 (2) of the Banks and Other Financial Institutions Act (BOFIA) 2020. The CBN's decision aligns with its mandate to promote a stable financial system in Nigeria and follows a period of engagement with the bank aimed at improving its financial performance.

“The Board and Management of the bank have not been able to improve the bank’s financial performance, a situation which constitutes a threat to financial stability. This follows a period during which the CBN engaged with the bank and prescribed various supervisory steps intended to stem the decline. Regrettably, the bank has continued to suffer and has no reasonable prospects of recovery, thereby, making the revocation of the license the next necessary step,” the CBN stated.

Biden says Hamas is sufficiently depleted. Israel leaders disagree, casting doubts over cease-fire

At the start of its devastating offensive on the Gaza Strip, Israel set an ambitious goal: destroy Hamas. At the time, the Biden administration committed to the objective, giving Israel considerable stocks of weaponry and voicing its support.

Nearly eight months into the war, however, cracks have emergedbetween the close allies over what defeating Hamas actually looks like. Last week, U.S. President Joe Biden said the militant group was no longer capable of launching an attack on Israel like the Oct. 7 attack that triggered the war and that it was time for the fighting to end. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and far-right ministers disagree.

Where the U.S. seeks a quick end to the fighting,Israel’s leadership appears determined to push onward.

Here is how the leaders define the destruction of Hamas.

BIDEN: NO ABILITY TO POSE A THREAT

Biden on Friday said it was time to end the Israel-Hamas war, signaling that the objective of destroying Hamas had already been met because the militant group was “no longer capable” of carrying out a large-scale attack on Israel like the one on Oct. 7.

That day, Hamas militants astonished Israel with a large-scale assault, killing some 1,200 people and dragging about 250 hostages back to Gaza as rocket fire targeted Israeli cities and towns.

In the nearly eight months since then, Israel says its air and ground offensive has significantly depleted Hamas’ military capabilities. It claims to have killed 15,000 militants, half of Hamas’ fighting force, and wounded thousands of others. It also says it has destroyed a significant portion of Gaza’s labyrinthine tunnel network, command and control centers and rocket launchers.

Biden appeared Friday to believe this was enough to satisfy Israel’s objective. He urged Israel and Hamas to reach an agreement to release about 85 remaining hostages, along with the bodies of around 40 more, for an extended cease-fire.

NETANYAHU: ELIMINATE REMAINING MILITARY AND GOVERNING ABILITY

In response to Biden’s suggestion that Hamas was significantly depleted, Netanyahu said Israel would not agree to a permanent cease-fire until “the destruction of Hamas’ military and governing capabilities, the freeing of all hostages and ensuring that Gaza no longer poses a threat to Israel.”

The Israeli army says the eradication of Hamas is still incomplete, with battalions of militants remaining in the southernmost city of Rafah and fighting still raging in Gaza’s north. Hamas has continued to launch rockets into Israel, although with far lower intensity than in the first months of war. The extent of the group’s governance across the strip remains unclear, though no alternative has emerged.

Still, Netanyahu admits it may be impossible to fully stamp out the ideology of Hamas, which seized control of Gaza in 2007, a year after winning legislative elections against the rival Fatah party. Hamas has managed to survive despite a 16-year blockade imposed by Israel and Egypt, and four previous wars against Israel.

“Hamas has to be eliminated, not as an idea,” Netanyahu said in late March. “Nazism was not destroyed as an idea in World World II, but Nazis don’t govern Germany.”

ISRAEL’S FAR RIGHT: ERADICATE HAMAS AND RESETTLE GAZA

The far-right firebrands within Israel’s ultranationalist government have staunchly rejected Biden’s cease-fire proposal, saying Israel must continue its war in Gaza until the militant group is completely stamped out.

Israel’s minister of national security, Itamar Ben-Gvir, and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich have both threatened to leave Netanyahu’s government if he endorsed Biden’s proposal. That would cause the coalition to collapse.

Smotrich said Monday that agreeing to a cease-fire would amount to a humiliation of Israel and a surrender. Increased military pressure, he said, is “the only language understood in the Middle East.”

Ben-Gvir has called for the “voluntary” emigration of Palestinians from Gaza and for a return of Israeli settlements. Israel unilaterally pulled out of more than 20 Jewish settlements in Gaza in 2005, ending a 38-year presence.

Speaking at a resettlement conference in May, Ben-Gvir said that the only way to make sure “the problem won’t come back” was to “return to Gaza now.”

AP

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Italy to send second air defence system to Ukraine, foreign minister says

Italy will send a second SAMP/T air defence system to Ukraine, its foreign minister said in a radio interview on Monday, responding to Kyiv's pleas for greater help to fend off Russian missile attacks.

The system, also known as MAMBA, is a Franco-Italian battery that can track dozens of targets and intercept 10 at once. It is the only European-made system that can intercept ballistic missiles.

Rome and Paris jointly delivered a first system in 2023, but in recent months Ukraine has repeatedly called on partners to provide more help with air defence as it faces an increasing barrage of attacks on cities and energy infrastructure.

"It is known that we will send SAMP/T, which is an instrument of air defence, therefore of protection, that Ukraine itself asked us for," Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani told state broadcaster Rai, confirming earlier media reports.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Italy has approved eight support packages to the government of President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. Tajani said the SAMP/T will be part of a ninth package under preparation, but did not give a time frame for delivery.

All shipments have so far been covered by official secrecy and the government has never made public the exact list of weapons it has sent to Ukraine.

A source close to the matter told Reuters earlier that Italy would likely ship to Ukraine a SAMP/T system which is currently deployed in Kuwait, but is soon due to return to Italy.

Corriere della Sera newspaper reported on Monday that the government could green light the new supplies after a summit of leaders of the Group of Seven major democracies, which Italy will host on June 13-15.

G7 foreign ministers pledged in April to provide more air defence help to Ukraine during a meeting Italy hosted on the island of Capri, saying they were committed to saving lives and safeguarding critical infrastructure.

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Russia’s strikes pound Ukrainian army, equipment in 118 areas over day — top brass

Russian troops inflicted damage on Ukrainian army units and military hardware in 118 areas over the past day in the special military operation in Ukraine, Russia’s Defense Ministry reported on Monday.

«Operational/tactical aircraft, unmanned aerial vehicles, missile troops and artillery of the Russian groups of forces struck massed enemy manpower and military equipment in 118 areas," the ministry said in a statement.

Kiev loses 435 troops in Kupyansk area over past day

The Ukrainian army lost roughly 435 troops in battles with Russian forces in the Kupyansk area over the past day, the ministry reported.

Russia’s Battlegroup West units took better positions and inflicted damage on formations of the Ukrainian army’s 43rd mechanized and 112th territorial defense brigades in areas near the settlements of Zagoruikovka in the Kharkov Region and Stelmakhovka in the Lugansk People’s Republic, the ministry specified.

«In areas near the settlements of Chervonaya Dibrova in the Lugansk People’s Republic and Grigorovka in the Donetsk People’s Republic, they repelled three counterattacks by enemy assault groups. During the last 24-hour period, the Ukrainian army lost as many as 435 personnel, two armored personnel carriers and four motor vehicles," the ministry said.

In counterbattery fire, Russian troops destroyed three 122 mm D-30 howitzers, a 122 mm 2S1 Gvozdika motorized artillery system, a US-made 105 mm M119 artillery gun and an electronic warfare station of the Ukrainian army, it specified.

Russian troops strike two Ukrainian army brigades in Zaporozhye area over day

Russian troops inflicted casualties on two Ukrainian army brigades in the Zaporozhye area over the past day, the ministry reported.

«Battlegroup Dnepr units inflicted damage on manpower and equipment of the Ukrainian army’s 65th mechanized and 15th National Guard brigades in areas near the settlements of Rabotino and Verbovoye in the Zaporozhye Region," the ministry said.

The Ukrainian army’s losses in that direction over the past 24 hours amounted to 60 personnel, 3 motor vehicles, a US-made 155 mm M198 howitzer and a 152 mm D-20 howitzer, it specified.

Russian air defenses destroy 67 Ukrainian UAVs over past day

Russian air defense forces shot down 67 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), a Neptune anti-ship missile, four Hammer smart bombs and 19 rockets of multiple launch rocket systems over the past day, the ministry reported.

«Air defense capabilities destroyed 67 unmanned aerial vehicles and shot down a Neptune anti-ship missile, four French-made Hammer guided aerial bombs, a surface-to-air missile of the US-made Patriot system and 19 US-made HIMARS rockets and Olkha rockets," the ministry said.

In all, the Russian Armed Forces have destroyed 609 Ukrainian warplanes, 274 helicopters, 25,081 unmanned aerial vehicles, 526 surface-to-air missile systems, 16,236 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,328 multiple rocket launchers, 10,057 field artillery guns and mortars and 22,237 special military motor vehicles since the start of the special military operation, the ministry reported.

Reuters/Tass

Both parties being the Government and Labour are not sincere and it is a wonder why the Labour Movement feels it is only the minimum wage that should concern them.

How do we explain that Labour not call for strike when Government had no qualms buying N150m SUV for each of its lawmakers, ‘dashed’ judiciary and legislators billions of naira when they didn't ask for it, got the Senate President to allocate humongous amount that ran into hundreds of billion naira into the budget for his constituency and the same Senate President was the one negotiating a palty N60,000 minimum wage for the workers. It is utterly bizarre.

The Labour leaders fared no better and not sincere with their “chop I chop” agitation. They are asking for such an unrealistic, ridiculous, unreasonable and  scandalous figure of N490,000 for the minimum wage, simply because the Executive and Legislators are living in affluence.

For crying out loud, for Government to pay even N100000 as minimum wage is an invitation for further devaluation of the Naira and spiraling inflation which going to be fast worse than being currently experienced.

Frugality must start at the top echelons of Government as it is wicked for our leaders to be living in opulence that is out of tune with the reality of the economy yet, expect the workers to feed from the pigsty.

We pray and hope uncommon sense prevails and Government reduces cost of governance, with the legislators doing away with their take home perks, especially newspapers and wardrobe allowances, thereby earning the credibility to sincerely negotiate a living wage with the Labour leaders.

The maxim is Verbum Sapienti Est.

** Aare Kola Oyefeso

An Employer of labour and owner of Nigeria's Pioneer Transformers Engineering Company.

Anyone with an iPhone or Android should turn their device on and off once a week, officials say - to protect them from hackers.

The idea is to thwart 'zero-click' hacks, which involve downloading spyware onto users' phones without them ever clicking a link.

The National Security Agency (NSA) endorses the rebooting method, which temporarily deletes the massive stores of information that continuously run in the background - such as on our apps or internet browser.

The NSA has also warned that users should be wary about connecting to public WiFi networks and are advised to update their phone's software and apps regularly.

An NSA document listed the many steps all iPhone and Android users should take to mitigate the risk of a cyberattack.

Restarting your phone is one of the lesser-known methods.

Unlike other forms of malware, zero-click attacks don't require any interaction from the victim. 

Hackers prey on a software vulnerability and gain access to devices, without having to dupe you into clicking a malicious link or downloading a malicious file.

If the system isn't turned off and on, a cybercriminal can manipulate opened URLs to run code that installs malicious files onto the devices.

By turning the phone off and back on, it forces the closure of all apps and logs out of all bank and social media accounts, therefore preventing the hackers from accessing sensitive information.

The reboot method also has the same effect on spear-phishing attacks - when an attacker sends targeted fraudulent emails to steal sensitive information like login credentials.

Nearly half of smartphone owners reported they rarely or never turned their cell phone off, according to a 2015 Pew Research study, while 82 percent said they never or rarely rebooted their phone.

The NSA document also informed users that its important to frequently update software and apps to ensure your device is secure. 

Over time, hackers find new ways to break into a system, but updating old software will remove any potential flaws or loopholes they might have used to access your data.

The NSA also recommended that people disable their Bluetooth when they aren't using it because it reduces the chance of people gaining unauthorized access to their devices.

The advice is not 100 percent effective, the NSA warned, but it should provide partial protection from certain malicious activity.

'Threats to mobile devices are more prevalent and increasing in scope and complexity,' the NSA warned, adding that some smartphone features 'provide convenience and capability but sacrifice security.' 

Users should also turn off their WiFi and delete unused networks that cybercriminals can use to target their phones.

When connecting to a WiFi network, it's important to watch out for SSID Confusion Attacks that trick users into connecting to their hotspot instead of the establishment's official WiFi using a similar network name.

A strong lock screen with a minimum six-digit PIN will add much-needed protection when combined with the feature that prompts the smartphone to wipe itself after 10 incorrect attempts.

It further warned that people should avoid opening email attachments or links from an unknown source which could install malicious software without the person's knowledge. 

'Falling for social engineering tactics, like responding to unsolicited emails requesting sensitive information, can result in account compromise and identity theft,' Oliver Page, the CEO of cybersecurity company Cybernut, told Forbes. 

'These phishing attempts often mimic legitimate entities, deceiving individuals into divulging confidential details.

'Trusting phone calls or messages without verification can lead to serious consequences, as scammers manipulate victims into disclosing sensitive information or taking actions that compromise their security.'

The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) also heavily warned usersagainst dismantling any security settings that could give cybercriminals an opportunity to break into the phone.

'Tampering with your phone's factory settings, jailbreaking, or rooting your phone undermines the built-in security features offered by your wireless service and smartphone while making it more susceptible to an attack,' the FCC admonished.

According to Statista, 353 million people's data was compromised in the US last year including breaches, leaks and exposures.

But the last major zero-click exploit occurred in 2021, which targeted Apple's iMessage app and used a vulnerability related to the way the app processed images.

The attack was able to bypass Apple’s BlastDoor security feature that was designed to prevent such attacks. 

The tech giant filed a lawsuit against NSO Group, an Israeli cyber-intelligence firm primarily known for its proprietary spyware Pegasus, which is capable of zero-click exploits. 

Security researchers told Wired that the attack 'one of the most technically sophisticated exploits' they had ever seen.

Daily Mail

Content marketing. Are you doing it? If you are, does that content actually serve your growth and the goals of your business? 

Promotion has never been optional for entrepreneurs and the digital age continues to enhance the potency of content marketing in drawing eyeballs and closing sales. So if you said yes to either of those two questions, this article is for you.

One of the most common pieces of advice that people get when it comes to content revolves around "just going out and posting." 

While the old Gretsky adage is certainly true about missing all the shots you don't take, there has to be more specific and tailored advice for professionals and entrepreneurs looking to market themselves online.

Effective content has to have some sort of prima facie value that is wholly contained in the specific post itself. The key is serving people first - without them feeling like they're getting warmed up to a pitch or being sent down a funnel. 

With social media marketing, it's a long game, one that centers around building a reputation for adding value while asking little in return. So what does content that adds value to both you and your target audience look like?

Give Before You Ask

I spoke with Neel Dhingra on how professionals can be creating content that is a win-win for creators and audiences alike. Dhingra, a long-time loan officer in the mortgage and real estate industry, and now the founder and CEO of Forward Academy, helping professionals with their personal brands.

"Give before you ask," Dhingra advises. "Give valuable information that helps people." Usually, people put the customer on the left and a closed sale on the right. From first contact, so many entrepreneurs are asking people to start moving along that spectrum immediately.

But so many consumers, especially those from the younger generation, aren't keen on moving forward quickly. They have grown accustomed to a middle step in which they are able to gather informant information. 

They follow you, learn through your digital assets, and then gain the confidence to start asking more specific questions that lead to the results you want.

Instead of trying to focus on the bottom of the funnel, where people are rushing into transacting right now, this strategy allows you to reach people who may be six to twelve months away from buying your product or service.

It takes longer, yes. But this slow, methodical approach allows you to appeal to a wider audience, yielding higher results when they eventually warm to you.

Building Relationships Through Story

One of the difficult elements for people to navigate is coming up with creative ideas for captivating content. 

From a technical perspective alone, it seems like the framework for the most popular media is constantly changing. Optimizing and innovating on how specifically you are connecting through content is important. 

But while these details change as quickly as the latest Instagram update or the overnight rise of a new social media giant like TikTok, the essence of good content continues to surround relationship building. "To get all the benefits of social media," Dhingra says, "you have to create that connection with people."

What's a great way to foster this? By sharing your story. Opening up about the mission or why behind what you do is powerful stuff. 

People are attracted to somebody with a plight, especially when that mission ties into a problem that they can personally resonate with. "The personal aspect is what starts most of the conversations on social media," Dhingra says. 

Sharing the behind the scenes at work in addition to showing people a little into your personal life can have a big impact. It allows people to relate to you, which makes them feel comfortable to ask questions, enter conversations, and do business with you.

The goal is to connect your purpose and story with the needs and wants of the target audience. That, for someone who's ready to put out content of inherent value, is a formula for success.

Where To Post Content?

On the topic of where to post, Instagram's reels are still amongst the hottest mediums in town. Instagram is still lagging TikTok," he says. "Until they catch the user attention their competitor has, they're giving short-form content creators free reach."

Instagram is also particularly powerful for its integration of a direct message feature, essential for driving that relationship-building element mentioned earlier. Beyond this, long-form certainly is not dead. 

For those whose industry or subject matter warrant lengthier explanations, YouTube is still the place to be. Many of the entrepreneurs I speak to aren't using content marketing to its full potential. 

We live in a digital landscape that developed quickly and is now beginning to solidify its presence as a global mover of all things business. It's easy to look at that and leap to the conclusion that the ship has sailed to be effective content marketers of our personal and professional brand. 

But, with the right insight and good intentions for what you want your deliverables to give people, the sky's the limit for how you can network and grow through content marketing. 

Inc

The Federal Government borrowed N20.1 trillion from domestic investors in the first year of President Bola Tinubu’s administration, representing a year-on-year YoY increase of 117 per cent from former President Muhammadu Buhari’s last year in office, prompting concerns over the impact on the economy including likely additional pressure on inflation, increased debt service cost and higher borrowing cost from businesses.

Analysts noted that the sharp increase in Federal Government’s borrowing has the potential to compound the historic high inflationary trend in the country which may lead to further interest rate hikes by the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN and by extension increased cost of borrowing for businesses and individuals.

The Federal Government borrows from domestic investors through issuance of FGN Bonds, FGN Savings Bonds, and Sukuk Bonds by the Debt Management Office, DMO. In addition to these are the Nigeria Treasury Bills, NTBs, issued by the CBN on behalf of the FG.

Analysis of data from the DMO and CBN showed that in the 12 months ending May 31st (June 2023 to May 2024), also the first year of Tinubu as president, the FG borrowed N20.09 trillion through these instruments, representing YoY increase of 117 per cent from the N9.275 trillion borrowed in the previous 12 months, namely June 2022 to May 2023.

Most of the increase in borrowing was through the NTBs auctions conducted by the CBN, which also constituted 66 per cent of FG’s domestic borrowing during the period.

Borrowing details

According to data from CBN, FG’s borrowing through NTBs rose YoY by 188 per cent to N13.235 trillion in the 12 months ending May 2024 from N4.592 trillion in the 12 months ending May 2023.

FG’s borrowing through the monthly FGN Bond auctions, which constituted 32.8 per cent of total domestic borrowing during the period, rose, YoY by 42 per cent to N6.476 trillion in the 12 months ending May 2024 from N4.537 trillion in 12 months ending May 2023.

FG’s borrowing through Sukuk Bonds, which accounted for 1.7 per cent of total domestic borrowing during the period, rose, YoY by 169 per cent to N350 billion in the 12 months ending May 2024 from N130 billion in the 12 months ending May 2023.

FG’s domestic borrowing through FGN Savings Bonds accounted for 1.5 per cent of total borrowing during the period, also spiked, rising YoY by 116 per cent to N29.17 billion in the 12 months ending May 2024 from N16.07 billion in the preceding 12 months ending May 2023.

Interest rate hike

Among other things, the 117 per cent YoY increase in FG’s domestic borrowing in the 12 months ending May 2024 was driven by investors’ response to the high interest rate regime during the period following hike in the Monetary Policy Rate, MPR by the CBN.

Analysis showed that the average MPR rose to 20.32 per cent in the 12 months ending May 2024, representing 4.11 percentage points increase from 16.21 per cent in the preceding 12 months ending May 2023.

As a result, the average interest rate on NTBs rose to 9.1 per cent in 12 months ending May 2024, representing 5.1 percentage points from 4.0 per cent in the preceding 12 months ending May 2023.

In the same vein, the average interest rate on FGN Savings Bond rose to 17.91 per cent at the May 2024 auction from 10.89 per cent at the May 2023 auction.

Analysts’ comments

Notwithstanding the influence of the high interest rate regime, analysts expressed concern that the sharp rise in FG’s borrowing from domestic investors is harmful to the private sector as it makes it costlier for businesses to borrow.

The analysts were however divided on the impact of the borrowings on inflation.

Commenting, Co-Founding Partner, Comercio Partners, a Lagos based investment bank, Nnamdi Nwizu, said: “The increase in borrowing by the government means that there will be more spending by the government, which will have a huge impact on inflation as it will drive demand for goods. Governments are always the largest spender in the world, so the more money they spend, the higher the attendant inflationary pressure. Note also that since they are borrowing at record levels, it means that when they are servicing the debt, they will put a lot more funds in the hands of the public.

“Lending to the Private Sector has been impacted with corporates issuing bonds and Commercial Papers at record levels.

“Whilst we continue to see a lot of issuances by the private sector (above 25% yields), we also see that the smaller corporates are struggling as the government is crowding them out. If an investor can invest in one year risk-free NTBs at 25% yields, they would naturally ask for a premium when lending to the private sector. How many companies can afford to borrow at these steep levels and still be profitable? Also, the higher lending rates will lead to inflationary pressures as the corporates have to increase prices to cover for the higher borrowing rates.

“With respect to fiscal policy, we are yet to see the borrowing by the government have an impact on fiscal policy. Yes, we have the Coastal roads being built, but we would like to see more with regards to policies to help increase production output in the economy. Also, we expect to see a significant increase in debt servicing costs, factoring in the higher rates and increase in domestic borrowing.

“With respect to monetary policy, whilst the Central Bank continues on its hawkish trend, we expect pressure from the government on the Central Bank as its debt service costs rise. The government cannot afford to borrow at these levels for an extended period of time. Government spending can also lead to more pressure on the currency as it means more Naira available to chase the greenback.”

Similarly, Head of Equity Research, FBN Securities Limited, Tunde Abidoye, said: “Government borrowing could potentially fuel inflationary pressures. In addition there’s an indirect effect on exchange rates. Also, there’s the crowding out effect for private sector lending. As it is, not many businesses can afford to borrow at the elevated interest rate. Finally, the monetary policy response to all this may be to continue to raise interest rates in a bid to tame the spiraling inflation.”

However, Chinazom Izuorah, Senior Associate, Investment Brokerage, differed on the impact of the FG’s domestic borrowing on inflation, though she also noted it will make it costly for businesses to borrow.

She said: “The Federal Government’s domestic borrowing program has not changed in the last year. The government’s calendar for offering FGN bonds, savings bonds and Treasury bills remains consistent and in line with historical practice.

“The reason for the increase in value is due to the increase in MPR and the knock-on effect on interest rates for the FGN securities.

“At interest rates of 17% and above, the government’s instruments are more attractive than in the previous year and consequently there is increased interest and participation. This is also consistent with the CBN’s objective of reducing inflation by mopping up liquidity. In simple terms, higher interest rates create an incentive to save.”

She stated the impact of this in terms of inflationary pressure is that with the greater incentive to save, there will be less money in circulation which is crucial to limiting inflation.

“In terms of lending to the private sector: Higher interest rates on government securities, which are considered the safest instruments, is a disincentive to lending to the private sector, which is considered riskier.

“Money tends to fly to safety. Banks, other financial institutions and fund managers have little incentive to take-on riskier assets when they can get attractive returns lending the funds to the government.

“On the fiscal policy front the government uses the funds raised through the issuance of securities to fund the national budget. The present administration has earmarked a significant portion of the budget to capital expenditures, portions will also be used to fund recurring expenditures and debt service.

“The higher interest rates mean that the government is paying a higher rate to investors.

“However domestic borrowing is more sustainable than external borrowing as the monies are borrowed in the local currency. Governments look to external borrowing due to lack of capacity to meet funding needs from the domestic market.

“There is a lot of benefit to having a financially literate citizenry and high domestic savings rates. The most critical issue for Nigeria and Nigerians is that monies are judiciously employed for the purposes they are raised and projects executed efficiently.

“The increase in domestic borrowing values is indicative of the success of the administration’s monetary policy positioning.

“It can be assumed that the sustained rise in the MPR has been favorably received by the market and has stimulated increased participation in the domestic bond market.”

Vanguard

Poverty and staggering debt remain the albatross on the shoulders of the federal government, 36 States and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) and the 774 Local Government Areas, despite sharing a whopping N17.9 trillion as the cumulative Federal Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) revenue under President Bola Tinubu.

The figure, which is the highest by the Nigerian government in history, represents a 42.6 per cent surge when compared to N12.56 trillion it was a year earlier.

The increase sprang from the removal of petrol subsidy which freed more funds for monthly FAAC payouts.

The revelation came from a recent FAAC report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

Widening poverty 

Regardless of the higher monthly subvention, a report from the World Bank indicates that Nigeria’s poverty rate rose from 40 percent in 2018 to 46 percent in December 2023. It means that the number of poor people increased from 79 million to 104 million.

According to the report, more people have fallen below the poverty line due to sluggish economic growth and rising inflation.

“Sluggish growth and rising inflation have increased the poverty rate from 40 percent in 2018 to 46 percent in 2023, pushing an additional 24 million people below the national poverty line,” the World Bank said.

The report added that the number of poor people in urban areas (more exposed to inflation) increased from 13 million to 20 million, while the number of poor people in rural areas rose to 84 million from 67 million within the same period.

The worst five states in poverty headcount rate for 2019, according to Statista are; Sokoto, 87.73%, Taraba, 87.72%, Jigawa, 97.02, Ebonyi, 79.76% and Adamawa, 75.41%

The lowest five states are; Lagos, 4.5%, Delta, 6%, Osun 8.5%, Ogun 9.3% and Oyo, 9.8%

Analysts say the figures have not improved because the factors responsible for the worsening poverty, like terrorism, climate change crisis, lack of farm input, inflation and others, are yet to abate.

The World Bank, however, predicted a silver lining, explaining that the increase in poverty rate will be undone by the recent reforms of President Bola Tinubu from 2024 onward, reversing the rise to 44 percent in 2026.

High sovereign debt 

Figures from the Debt Management Office (DMO) show that Nigeria’s total public debt stock as of December 31, 2023, was N97. 34 trillion or $108.229 billion.

Sub-national domestic debt stood at N5.863 trillion, while external debt stock was $4.61 billion.

Topping the debtor list is Lagos State, Nigeria’s commercial hub, had an external debt of $1.24 billion in 2023. However, this figure is slightly less than the $1.25 billion in 2022. The slight decline is likely due to a dependance on more domestic debt, which is about N1.05 trillion. Following closely is Kaduna State, which has an external debt of $587.07 million in 2023, climbing from $573.74 million in the previous year. Also exposed to offshore lenders is Edo State with external debt jumping to $314.45 million in 2023 from $261.15 million in 2022.

Highest and lowest FAAC receivers 

An analysis by the whistler shows that Delta, Rivers, Akwa-Ibom, Bayelsa, Lagos and Kano states got the highest FAAC allocation under Tinubu.

On the flip side, Gombe, Ekiti, Ogun and Cross-River States for the lowest.

Despite the fatter monthly FAAC income, there are genuine concerns as 15 Nigerian states have yet to implement the N30,000 minimum wage for their workers since it was signed into law in 2019.

Considering the humongous funds available to states, the organized labour is insisting on a monthly minimum wage of about N600,000 as millions of Nigerians battle multi-dimensional poverty.

According to BudgiT, even though 15 states are yet to implement the minimum wage of N30,000, the 36 states of the federation grew their cumulative personnel cost by 13.44 per cent to N1.75 trillion in 2022 from N1.54 trillion in 2021.

Also, these states grew their overhead bills by 23.42 per cent to N1.24 trillion in 2022.

Under the current administration Delta, Rivers, Akwa-Ibom, Bayelsa, Lagos and Kano states got the highest FAAC revenue during the period.

However, at the end of the 10 months of February 2023 under former President Muhammadu Buhari, Delta, Akwa-Ibom, Rivers, Bayelsa, Lagos and Kano states received the highest revenue.

Further breakdown showed that Delta state despite being the state with the most allocation in both periods, saw a decline of 3.77 per cent to N326.64 billion as against N339.44 billion it got under Buhari.

Rivers, which is the second state with the highest allocation under Tinubu, dropped by 0.88 per cent to N261.48 billion against the N263.79 billion which it got under Buhari.

Experts preach frugality 

Experts have pushed for more frugal management of resources across the three tiers of government so that the gains of good governance can cascade down to all nooks and crannies of the society.

The Director General, Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) Muda Yusuf, said it was disheartening that development at the sub-national level has remained appalling, calling on governors to look beyond the state capital to develop the rural areas where the bulk of the citizens reside.

He said: “It’s not nice that poverty has continued to ravage the citizens despite higher FAAC disbursements.

“The additional revenue should be spent on projects that positively impact the lives of the people.

“It’s not about governors building flyovers at state capitals and neglecting many parts of their states.

“Look at what your citizens are predominantly engaged in. Are they farmers, fishermen, traders and so on? You invest in what they do so you make the state more inclusive, not just building airports, flyovers etc.

“Corruption is a major issue actually. The more money available, the more the corruption component of it.

“People should be made accountable. A system carrying too many parasites cannot grow.

The citizens should demand accountability and not just lament and go to bed after voting”, he said.

Sun

The Organised Labour said it has mobilised for full implementation of its indefinite nationwide strike over electricity tariff increase and new minimum wage for workers. 

NLC spokesperson, Benson Upah, told Daily Sun that a strike strategy meeting was held over the weekend to ensure that all affiliates and states were fully involved in the industrial action.

“Mobilisation is very high,” he said. On whether key sectors would be affected, the spokesperson replied: “Fully.”

The Medical & Health Workers’ Union of Nigeria (MHWUN),  Association of Senior Civil Servants of Nigeria (ASCSN), Association of Senior Staff of Banks, Insurance and Financial Institutions (ASSBIFI), the Nigeria Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas Workers (NUPENG), the Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU), Senior Staff Association of Nigerian Universities (SSANU), the Academic Staff Union of Polytechnics (ASUP) and others have already issued strike notices to their branches and members. 

After several unsuccessful negotiations with the Tripartite Committee on the National New Minimum Wage, the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and the Trade Union Congress (TUC), on Friday declared a nationwide strike over the refusal of the government to reverse its recent hike on electricity tariff and failure to reach an agreement on the new minimum wage.

NLC President, Joe Ajaero, said despite issuing ultimatums and staging protests, the government has failed to address the pressing issues at hand, including the hike in electricity tariffs and the fair determination of a minimum wage that is reflective of the current economic conditions.

A National Executive Council (NEC) member of ASUU said the various branches would join the state council of NLC at the start of the indefinite strike.

“ASUU as an affiliate of NLC will participate in the indefinite strike. Our members have been informed. No lecturer will  go to class as from tomorrow until when the NLC called off the strike”, he stated.

One of the branch chairmen of SSANU told Daily Sun that the national body has directed its members to join the national strike.

ASUP President, Shammah Kpanja said that his members have been mobilised for the indefinite strike and would not attend to students until the industrial action is suspended.

The Federal Government, however, described the planned nationwide strike as ineffectual, premature and illegal.

In a letter addressed to the presidents of the NLC and TUC, the Attorney General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, Lateef Fagbemi said the unions’ decision to embark on a strike came when the Federal Government and other stakeholders involved in the Tripartite Committee on the determination of a new national minimum wage had not declared an end to negotiations.

“You are aware that the Federal and State Governments are not the only employers to be bound by a new national minimum wage.

“Hence, it is vital to balance the interest and capacity of all employers of labour in the country, including the organised private sector, in order to determine a minimum wage for the generality of the working population.”

Fagbemi added that the organised labour unions failed to issue a mandatory 15-day strike notice in compliance with the Trade Disputes Act 2004 and the Trade Unions Act.

He said the planned strike was at odds with the order from the national industrial court in 2023, which restrained the unions from embarking on industrial actions.

“I would like to draw your attention to Sections 41(1) and 42(1) of the Trade Disputes Act 2004 tax amended, which requires both the NLC and the TUC to issue mandatory strike notices of a minimum of 15 days.

“It is pertinent to observe that at no time did either the NLC or the TUC declare a trade dispute with their employers or issue any strike notice as required by law for such strike action to be legitimate and lawful. It is not in doubt that the fundamental importance of the 15-day notice is underscored by the fact that sections 41 & 42 (1)(b) criminalise non-compliance with this requirement for a valid declaration of strike action.

“Consequent upon the foregoing, the call to industrial action is premature, ineffectual and illegal. The proposed strike action is also at variance with the order of the National Industrial Court and ongoing mediatory settlement efforts over issues connected with the subject matter of the order.”

NASS moves to avert strike

At press time, the National Assembly was in a meeting with the organised labour in a last move to avert the strike.

The meeting held at the Senate wing had in attendance the Senate President, Godswill Akpabio, the Speaker, House of Representatives, Tajudeen Abbas, other principal officers, the Secretary to Government of the Federation (SGF), George Akume;  Minister of Finance, Wale Edun; Minister of State for Labour, Nkeiruka Onyejeocha and leaders of organised labour, amongst others in attendance.

Speaking before the meeting went into an executive session, Akpabio said the meeting was intended to find a resolution to issues surrounding a new minimum wage for the country.

He said there was a need to tread cautiously on the minimum wage to avoid creating new problems for workers, especially those in the private sector.

“I do know that Mr. President has set up a very serious committee to negotiate with labour. Secretary to Government, I am sure you have been deeply involved in the negotiation. The Head of Service, you have always been deeply informed.

“We are not taking over the work of the executive. We are not taking over the work of the TUC nor are we taking over the work of the NLC. We just said we should hear from you. It is very difficult to negotiate for peace in an atmosphere of crisis.

“If you are on strike it means you are no longer negotiating and Nigerian people are desirous of having a  closure to the issue of minimum wage. The government is very eager to meet the yearning of the people at least to a reasonable extent based on the economic reality, hence there is need for us to call all parties to the table and to hear from you as the people’s parliament. We are also on the side of the people. We are on your side the NLC and the TUC. And we are also on your side, the government and the executive. So we are on the side of all Nigerians. And above all, we are also workers. We are also labourers. What affects you affects us will affect you.

“We must also be mindful of collateral damage. I don’t want us, in the course of trying to arrive at minimum wage, we end up with serious issue of unemployment because as soon as we arrive at a minimum wage, we expect the private sector to also adhere and if we  are unable to do so, the next thing will  be retrenchment of workers. So, we will look at the issue. As we walk on the tight rope, we must do the balancing act.”

Similarly, the Speaker, Abbas, stated that the parliament was affected by the plight of the people.

He noted that one way of tackling corruption in the country was to pay workers a living wage. Regardless, the speaker stated that stakeholders should also be mindful that the damage of several decades cannot be addressed overnight.

“We have to start somewhere and then agree to a plan of what we can do to reach that level when every Nigerian worker can beat his chest and say I am earning enough to put food on the table. Enough to take care of my basics.

“My own is to say thank you to organised labour for even accepting to come to the National Assembly to give Nigerians and the government the hope that all is not lost; that we can continue interacting; that we can continue to dialogue on this very important subject matter, “ he stated.

On his part, Ajaero said the demand of organised labour for a new minimum wage was for the benefit of all Nigerians.

“What we are demanding is for all Nigerians. Your brothers. Your sisters. For everybody. Your constituents. That is why we must all reason together to find a solution to it. It is not for any of the leadership here, it has to do with all Nigerians and the way forward for this. We are quite committed to finding a way forward, finding a living wage, finding a survival wage and not starvation wage for Nigerians.”

Osifo added that the last one year has been difficult for workers. He explained that what organised labour was asking for is a wage that would enable workers, to at least, afford the basic necessities of life.

“A labourer deserves the rightful wage. And that’s the conversation that we have been having for some time. We all will agree that as a country, it is very difficult and excruciating for Nigerian workers.

“We all know very well that the value of the naira has been eroded to a very large extent. Things have been difficult. In the last one year, that difficulty has exacerbated that is why the minimum wage conversation is a big talk. And it’s a bit difficult because when you are negotiating under a difficult environment, it is always very difficult.

“For us, the last four months have been tough and Nigerians are waiting for us to give them a wage that at least could assist them  in paying transportation to work, could feed them, could house. These are basic necessities of life, not even a wage to buy a car or wage to build a house, but to meet the basic necessities of life.”

Sun