Key Developments

1. Protests Continue Despite Presidential Address

Despite President Bola Tinubu's national broadcast on Sunday calling for protesters to suspend their actions and engage in dialogue, demonstrations continued across several Nigerian states on Monday. The protests, now in their fifth day, are focused on demanding economic and political reforms to address the rising cost of living and other governance issues.

2. Arrest of Protest Leader in Abuja

Michael Lenin, a prominent organizer of the #EndBadGovernance protests, was reportedly arrested by the Department of State Services (DSS) in Abuja around 2 am on Monday. However, the DSS later denied having Lenin in custody, creating confusion about his whereabouts and the circumstances of his alleged arrest.

3. Protests in Ibadan and Osun

Demonstrations continued in Ibadan, led by activists who stated that Tinubu's broadcast did not address the protesters' concerns. In Osun State, protesters moved from Nelson Mandela Freedom Park to major streets in Osogbo, causing traffic disruptions.

4. Violence and Looting in Kaduna

Kaduna saw some of the most intense protest activity, with thousands of demonstrators marching through major streets. Reports indicate incidents of looting and breaking into private residences. Notably, protesters were seen waving Russian flags, expressing a desire for Russian intervention similar to recent events in Niger.

5. Curfews Imposed in Multiple States

In response to the unrest, 24-hour curfews were imposed in several areas:

- Kaduna State: Curfew in Kaduna and Zaria metropolis

- Plateau State: Curfew in Jos North and Bukuru metropolis

- Bauchi State: Curfew in Katagum Local Government Area

6. Government and Security Response

- Tinubu postponed a Federal Executive Council meeting to hold talks with security chiefs.

- The military leadership warned against calls for a coup and the hoisting of foreign flags, describing such actions as treasonable offenses.

- Security agencies have been deployed to maintain order and prevent further violence.

7. Concerns Raised by Northern Elders Forum

The Northern Elders Forum expressed disappointment that Tinubu's speech did not address the issue of banditry, which they claim has caused significant harm in northern regions.

8. Ongoing Demands of Protesters

Protesters continue to demand economic relief, including a reduction in fuel prices, and broader political reforms. Some groups have called for resignation of President Tinubu.

9. International Attention

The use of Russian flags by some protesters, particularly in northern states, has drawn international attention to the demonstrations and raised concerns about foreign influence.

10. Casualties and Violence

While the protests have been largely peaceful in many areas, there have been reports of violence and casualties in some states. Amnesty International has reported at least 13 deaths related to the protests, although this figure is disputed by police.

The situation remains fluid, with protests continuing despite government appeals and security measures. The coming days will be crucial in determining the trajectory of the demonstrations and the government's response to the protesters' demands.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited has launched the Utapate crude oil blend, a new grade of crude oil, into the international market. According to a statement released on Monday by NNPC spokesperson Femi Soneye, the first cargo of this new blend departed for Spain in July.

The Utapate crude oil blend is sourced from Oil Mining Lease (OML) 13, which is fully operated by NNPC Exploration and Production Limited (NEPL), the upstream subsidiary of NNPC. Located offshore Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria, the Utapate blend currently produces 28,000 barrels per day, with potential to increase to 50,000 barrels per day. The new crude grade has a sulphur content of 0.0655%.

Spanish oil company Repsol won the tender for the initial cargo of 950,000 barrels of the Utapate blend, which is comparable to the highly sought-after Amenam crude. Additionally, Gulf Transport and Trading, another leading crude oil dealer, has secured tenders for the Utapate cargoes for August and September.

Last year, during the Argus European Crude Conference in London, NNPC Ltd announced the launch of the Nembe crude oil, produced by the NNPC/Aiteo operated Oil Mining Lease (OML) 29 Joint Venture. Similar to the Nembe grade, the Utapate crude oil blend features low sulphur content and a low carbon footprint due to flare gas elimination, aligning with the specifications of major European buyers.

Soneye highlighted that this development demonstrates NNPC's commitment to increasing Nigeria’s crude oil production and expanding reserves through the development of new assets.

Former President Olusegun Obasanjo has warned that those profiting from fuel importation will likely try to undermine the Dangote Petroleum Refinery. This statement comes in response to allegations by Aliko Dangote, President of the Dangote Group, about efforts by certain "mafias" to sabotage the $20 billion refinery project.

In an interview with the Financial Times, Obasanjo highlighted the significance of the Dangote refinery, describing it as a venture that should inspire investment in Nigeria from both locals and foreigners. “Aliko’s investment in a refinery, if it goes well, should encourage both Nigerians and non-Nigerians to invest in Nigeria. If those who are selling or supplying refined products for Nigeria feel that they will lose the lucrative opportunity, they will also make every effort to get him frustrated,” Obasanjo stated.

Officials from the Dangote Group have recently complained that international oil companies are hindering the refinery by refusing to sell crude oil or by selling it at a premium of up to $6 above the normal price. They also accused the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) of issuing licenses to import substandard fuel. The NMDPRA denied these claims, arguing that Dangote diesel is inferior compared to imported products. NMDPRA Chief Executive Farouk Ahmed stated that the country would continue importing fuel to prevent a monopoly by the Dangote Group.

Obasanjo further criticized Nigeria's heavy reliance on oil, neglecting gas and agriculture. "I believe we made a very, very deadly mistake. We put all our eggs in one basket of oil. We even ignored gas. We were flaring gas, which is a very important commodity. We ignored agriculture, which should have been the centerpiece of our economic development," he said.

Reflecting on his presidency, Obasanjo recounted how he invited Shell to manage the country’s refineries, but the company declined due to the sector's corruption and poor maintenance. “When I was President, I invited Shell and I said, look, come and take equity participation and run our refineries for us. They refused. They said our refineries have not been well maintained. We have brought amateurs rather than bringing professionals. They said there’s too much corruption with the way our refinery is run and maintained. And they didn’t want to get involved in such a mess,” he explained.

Obasanjo questioned the repeated promises to fix government refineries, noting that the problems have only worsened. “How many times have they told us that? And at what price? Those problems, as far as the government refineries are concerned, have never gone away. They have even increased. So if you have a problem like that and that problem is not removed then you aren’t going anywhere,” he said.

He also criticized President Bola Tinubu’s approach to removing fuel subsidies, arguing that the government should have considered the potential hardship and ways to mitigate it. “There’s a lot of work that needs to be done. Not just wake up one morning and say you removed the subsidy. Because of inflation, the subsidy that we have removed is not gone. It has come back,” Obasanjo stressed.

Obasanjo emphasized the need for investor confidence in Nigeria, advocating for a shift from a transactional to a transformational economy. He also expressed concern over youth unrest due to unemployment, warning that Nigeria might be sitting on a "keg of gunpowder." “Our youth are restive. And they are restive because they have no skill. They have no empowerment. They have no employment. We are all sitting on a keg of gunpowder. And my prayer is that we will do the right thing before it’s too late,” he warned.

Nigeria has suffered another nationwide blackout – the fifth time in 2024.

According to various distribution companies (DisCos), their feeders became inactive, resulting in widespread blackouts across the country.

Data from the Transmission Company of Nigeria’s (TCN’s) generation trend showed that the grid collapsed at about 1:30 pm on Monday and dropped from 3,241 megawatts (MW) to 1,255MW in an hour.

As at the time of this report, out of 21 plants connected to the grid, five generation companies (GenCos) are down while 17 are generating power.

The TCN is yet to give reasons for the collapse.

Confirming the incident, the Abuja Electricity Distribution Company (AEDC) on X, said the grid collapsed at 2.30pm.

“We understand that some of our customers are still without power due to a system failure from the national grid at 2.55pm today, 5th August 2024,” AEDC posted.

“Please be assured that the system is gradually stabilising, and we are working diligently with all relevant stakeholders to restore power to the affected areas as quickly as possible.”

The national electricity grid had suffered a collapse five times in 2024.

The first time the grid collapsed was on February 4.

The grid experienced another collapse on March 28.

The blackout also happened on April 15, and July 6, for the third and fourth time respectively.

On May 1, TCN said the number of system collapses has reducedsignificantly in the country.

According to Ndidi Mbah, TCN’s spokesperson, the grid disturbances declined by 76.47 percent in five years.

Mbah said the country recorded 20 system collapses from 2020 till May 1, compared to the 85 grid disturbances between 2015 to 2019.

Meanwhile, on April 18, the commission said it had deployed a digital system called generation dip/loss detection system (GLDS) to swiftly detect and respond to sudden drops in power generation.

The Cable

Proxy forces armed by Iran could take part in retaliation against Israel over Hamas leader's killing

As Iran threatens to respond to the suspected Israeli assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, the regional militias that the Islamic Republic has armed for decades could play a role in any attack.

Here’s a look at Iran’s history of arming militias, its allies in the region and what part they could play.

Why has Iran armed proxy forces?

Iran’s policy of arming militias took root in the aftermath of the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Before it, the U.S. provided major weapon systems including F-14 Tomcat fighter jets to the government of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. After the revolution and the U.S. Embassy hostage crisis, those shipments and needed maintenance programs stopped. Iran’s eight-year war with Iraq in the 1980s destroyed much of its arsenal. International sanctions on Iran, including over its nuclear program, also have kept it from receiving new arms while Israel and Gulf Arab states allied with the U.S. have received advanced weapons. While developing its own missile program, Iran can’t match those sophisticated weapons. It relies on militias as an asymmetric threat to squeeze both Israel and the United States.

Who are Iran’s regional allies?

Iran’s arming began in earnest in the 1980s with Shiite forces in Lebanon fighting against Israel. They became the Hezbollah militia. The arming expanded with the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq that toppled dictator Saddam Hussein, a longtime foe of Tehran. Iran strongly backed Syrian President Bashar Assad in his country’s long war. And Iran has continued when the opportunity has arisen, even arming Sunni militants while viewing itself as the world’s defender of Shiite Muslims. Those relationships are managed by Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, one of the most powerful armed groups in the Middle East.

The militias in Iran’s self-described “Axis of Resistance” include these:

Iraqi militias

In Iraq, Iran supported a slew of forces that mobilized in 2014 to battle the Islamic State group. Those state-sanctioned, mainly Shiite militias, known as the Popular Mobilization Forces, have grown into a powerful political faction, armed with rockets, drones and other weaponry. The International Institute for Strategic Studies puts their strength at some 180,000 fighters. Other smaller or little-known militant groups have emerged and claimed attacks against U.S. forces as well amid this Israel-Hamas war. Iran-backed armed groups attacked U.S. personnel in Iraq more than 60 times between October and Feb. 4, according to the Congressional Research Service. The deadliest came on Jan. 28, when the U.S. said a drone launched by Iranian-backed Iraqi militias hit a facility known as Tower 22 in Jordan on the Syrian border, killing three American troops and wounding dozens of others. In response, U.S. airstrikes hit more than 85 targets at seven locations, including command and control headquarters, intelligence centers, rockets and missiles, drone and ammunition storage sites and other facilities connected to the militias or the Guard’s expeditionary Quds Force.

Lebanon’s Hezbollah

Hezbollah formed in 1982 amid Israel’s occupation of southern Lebanon. Israel remains highly wary of Hezbollah, particularly over the vast missile arsenal it is believed to possess and its battle-hardened forces who also supported Assad in Syria. While Israel has sophisticated missile defenses including its Iron Dome system, a mass barrage of fire from Hezbollah and others at the same time could overwhelm the country. Estimates suggest Hezbollah has an arsenal of 150,000 rockets and missiles, including precision-guided missiles. The militia also has been blamed for suicide bombings in the past, including a 1983 bombing in Beirut that killed 241 American servicemen, though the group maintains it wasn’t behind the attack. Hezbollah also has drones and surface-to-air missile systems. Hezbollah’s forces number as many as 25,000 full-time fighters, with additional tens of thousands in reserves, according to an Israeli military assessment. Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah in 2021 said the group had 100,000 trained fighters.

Palestinian militant forces

Despite being Sunni, both the Palestinian militant group Hamas and Islamic Jihad have received weaponry and other materiel from Iran. The groups, however, have been struck hard by Israel since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack that began the war, which saw militants kill 1,200 people and take 250 others hostage. Israel’s war on Hamas in the Gaza Strip since has killed at least 39,580 Palestinians, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry, which does not distinguish between civilians and combatants in its count. Israel’s military says it has killed roughly 15,000 militants in the war.

Yemen’s Houthi rebels

The Houthis have held Yemen’s capital, Sanaa, since 2014 as part of that country’s ruinous war. They follow the Shiite Zaydi faith, a branch of Shiite Islam that is almost exclusively found in Yemen. While broadly an insurgent force, the group with Iran’s support is now able to launch drone and missile attacks that have drastically disrupted shipping in the Red Sea corridor and now even reach Israel. The U.S. Navy’s efforts at stopping the shipping attacks have led to the most intense continuous combat its sailors have faced since World War II, but has yet to end the assaults. The amount of direct command Iran wields over the Houthis, however, remains a matter of debate among experts. The Houthis’ attacks have raised their international profile while cracking down on dissent at home. The rebels claim they’ve recruited 200,000 additional fighters since launching their attacks. The rebels and their allies have a fighting force of some 20,000 fighters, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

What could any retaliatory strike look like?

In April following an Israeli attack on the Iranian Embassy compound in Syria, Iran launched 170 bomb-carrying drones, more than 30 cruise missiles and more than 120 ballistic missiles toward Israel. Israel, the U.S. and other nations shot down many of the projectiles, some of which came from Yemen. Iran could launch a similar assault, but this time Hezbollah may get involved as the militia seeks revenge for the Israeli strike last week killing senior commander Fouad Shukur. Such an assault could strain Israeli air defenses, meaning more missile strikes raising the risk of casualties — and of a further escalation experts fear could lead to a wider regional war.

AP

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Five injured in Ukraine shelling of Russia's Kursk region, 26 drones downed, governor says

Ukraine shelling injured five people, including three children, in Russia's Kursk region, the interim governor of the region said on Tuesday, adding that air defence systems destroyed at least 26 Ukraine launched drones overnight.

Several residential buildings were damaged by the shelling in the town of Sudzha in the Kursk region, which borders Ukraine in Russia's southwest, Alexei Smirnov, the interim governor said on the Telegram messaging app.

In a separate post, Smirnov said that the night attacks followed a series of drone strikes and shelling incidents from Ukraine during the day on Monday, when 41 drones were destroyed and one person injured.

Reuters could not independently verify Smirnov's reports.

Both Russia and Kyiv rarely disclose the full extent of damage inflicted by their attacks unless civilians are injured or non-strategic infrastructure is damaged.

There was no immediate comment from Ukraine about the attacks. Kyiv has frequently said that it targets Russia's military, energy and transport infrastructure to undermine Russia's overall war efforts. It also said the attacks are in response to Russia's continuous strikes on Ukrainian territory.

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Russian air defenses down four SCALP-EG air-launched cruise missiles over day — top brass

Russian air defenses have downed four French-made SCALP-EG air-launched cruise missiles and hit two Ukrainian fuel depots and manpower in 132 areas over the past 24 hours, the Defense Ministry said.

"Air defenses downed six US-made ATACMS operational-tactical missiles, four French-made SCALP-EG air-launched cruise missiles, seven US-made HIMARS rockets, a French-made Hammer guided aerial bomb, and 43 drones," the statement said.

"Operational and tactical aircraft, drones, missile troops and artillery from Russian battlegroups struck two fuel depots as well as concentrations of manpower and military equipment across 132 areas," the military added.

The ministry specified that a total of 633 aircraft, 278 helicopters, 29,184 drones, 561 anti-aircraft missile systems, 16,774 tanks and other armored fighting vehicles, 1,396 multiple rocket launchers, 12,843 field artillery and mortar guns, 24,396 units of special military vehicles have been destroyed since the beginning of the special military operation.

Reuters/Tass

President Bola Tinubu’s self-serving speech--which basically sang his own praises, said he'd heard the people's anguished cries but won't do anything about the cries and then threatened that the people shouldn't cry for much longer or they'd be crushed-- signposts the making of an unfeeling tyrant.

If the people close to him don't stop him and the masses of the people let him get away with it, he'll transmogrify into a terrifyingly ruthless monster that may end Nigeria as we know it.

A famous Arabic proverb goes: "They asked the Pharoah, 'What made you a tyrant?' He said, 'No one stopped me.'"

The proverb tells us about the psychology of power that I've written about in past columns. Subordinates flatter people in power, copy their ways, and shield them from the harsh truth about them. This sycophantic drooling by subordinates makes leaders lose touch with reality.

The truth Tinubu must know is that the current hardship in Nigeria is not survivable. This is not an issue of political partisanship.

There's no alternative to restoring petrol and electricity subsidies. Energy security is national security.

He should give another speech to restore the subsidies whose removal created the conditions that power the protests. Simple.

According to a new survey, business leaders have used layoffs to head off lawsuits and avoid hurting employees’ feelings, among other reasons.

Technically, layoffs occur because a company is cost-cutting or restructuring, and not through the fault of an employee. Firing occurs because an employee is at fault. But while layoffs are technically supposed to be blameless, they are still bad for employees, bad for companies, and bad for communities. For example, one study found that layoffs can lead to increased criminal behavior.

Despite that, a new survey suggests companies continue to rely on layoffs—even when they aren’t necessary for cutting costs. Resume Builder polled 600 business leaders involved in termination decisions about their reasoning behind conducting layoffs. The highlights are depressing:

Most layoffs aren’t financially necessary: To begin with, 63% of respondents said their company had layoffs in the past year. Half of respondents said that over three quarters of the layoffs at their company in the past year weren’t necessary for cost-cutting.

Many layoffs are an excuse to fire employees: 80% of respondents said they used layoffs to terminate employees instead of firing them. And 27% of respondents said that over a quarter of the layoffs at their company were used to let go of people so leaders wouldn’t have to fire them.

Companies are afraid to fire people: About 62% of respondents said they used layoffs instead of firings to maintain company morale; 59% said it was to avoid wrongful termination claims; 54% said it was to avoid severance; and 38% said it was to avoid hurting employees’ feelings. And 78% said they wanted to fire the employees in question for poor performance; 46% said for violating company policy; and 45% said for attendance problems. About a third of respondents (31%) said performance always influences their decisions about who gets laid off, while 51% said performance often influences their decisions.

“A disturbing trend is emerging where organizations reduce their workforce under false pretenses,” said Resume Builder’s chief career advisor Stacie Haller. “Many companies implement strict return-to-office (RTO) policies to indirectly encourage employees to leave voluntarily, thus avoiding the need for layoffs or terminations . . . Such practices contribute to the growing erosion of trust between employers and employees.”

Fast Company

Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina resigned on Monday and fled the country, multiple sources said, as more people were killed in some of the worst violence since the birth of the South Asian nation more than five decades ago.

Army chief General Waker-Us-Zaman said in a televised address that Hasina 76, had left the country and that an interim government would be formed.

Media reports said she had flown in a military helicopter with her sister and was headed to India. The CNN News 18 television channel said she had landed in Agartala, the capital of India's northeastern state of Tripura.

Reuters could not immediately verify the reports.

Television visuals showed thousands of people pouring into the streets of the capital Dhaka in jubilation and shouting slogans. Thousands also stormed Hasina's official residence 'Ganabhaban', shouting slogans, pumping fists and showing victory signs.

Television visuals showed crowds in the drawing rooms of the residence, and some people could be seen carrying away televisions, chairs and tables from what was one of the most protected buildings in the country.

"She has fled the country, fled the country," some shouted.

Protesters in Dhaka also climbed atop a large statue of independence leader Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, Hasina's father, and began chiselling away at the head with an axe, the visuals showed.

Student activists had called for a march to the capital Dhaka on Monday in defiance of a nationwide curfew to press Hasina to resign, a day after deadly clashes across the country killed nearly 100 people. About 150 people were killed in protests last month.

On Monday, at least six people were killed in clashes between police and protesters in the Jatrabari and Dhaka Medical College areas on Monday, the Daily Star newspaper reported. Reuters could not immediately verify the report.

Bangladesh has been engulfed by protests and violence that began last month after student groups demanded scrapping of a controversial quota system in government jobs.

That escalated into a campaign to seek the ouster of Hasina, who won a fourth straight term in January in an election boycotted by the opposition.

According to reports, the “safe place” Sheikh Hasina is headed to is its giant neighbour – India.

Over the years, India has been her biggest ally and this has worked well for both countries.

Bangladesh shares borders with a number of north-eastern Indian states – many of which have grappled with militancy over decades, and a friendly regime in Dhaka helps with that.

During her time in power, Hasina clamped down on anti-India militant groups in Bangladesh, winning friends in Delhi. She has also given transit rights to India to make sure goods from its mainland make it to those states.

Hasina, who forged close ties with India ever since she was first elected in 1996, has always justified Dhaka’s close relationship with Delhi.

During a visit to India in 2022, she reminded people of Bangladesh how India, its government, people and armed forces had helped the country during the independence war in 1971.

But her closeness to Delhi – and India’s backing of her - has been criticised by the opposition parties and activists who say India should be backing the people of Bangladesh and not a particular party.

Reuters/BBC

As the nationwide #EndBadGovernance protests in Nigeria entered their fourth day, tensions continued to escalate across multiple states, with demonstrators defying government appeals and curfews to voice their frustration over economic hardship and poor governance.

Key Developments:

1. Continued Protests Despite Presidential Address:

   - President Bola Tinubu delivered a nationwide broadcast on Sunday, acknowledging protesters' concerns and calling for an end to demonstrations.

   - Despite this, protesters in several states, including Kano and Lagos, vowed to continue their actions.

   - In Kano, hundreds of protesters took to the streets, some carrying Russian flags and chanting anti-government slogans.

2. Government Response:

   - The Plateau State government imposed a 24-hour curfew on Jos/Bukuru metropolis due to reported looting and violence.

   - Edo State Governor Godwin Obaseki blamed federal government policies for the hardship, while outlining local measures to alleviate suffering.

3. Violence and Security Concerns:

   - Reports of clashes between protesters and security forces continued.

   - In Jos, criminal elements allegedly looted shops and restaurants.

   - The International Press Centre (IPC) condemned attacks on journalists covering the protests, citing incidents in Abuja and Borno State.

4. Protest Strategies:

   - In Edo State, protesters held a church service on the street as part of their demonstration.

   - In Lagos, organizers announced plans to continue protests at Gani Fawehinmi Freedom Park on Monday.

5. Political Reactions:

   - Former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar criticized the Tinubu administration, calling it a "failure on all fronts" and describing the President's address as hollow.

6. Human Interest:

   - In Lagos, the protests have been marked by poignant symbols of suffering. Morufat Sikiru, an elderly woman, became a focal point at the protest ground along Kudirat Abiola Way in Ikeja. Carrying an empty pot, she lamented the severe hunger and economic distress affecting her and many others. Her actions drew both sympathy and skepticism, with some offering financial help and others questioning her motives. Despite receiving an offer of N500,000 from singer Oxlade, Sikiru expressed her intention to continue protesting until there is a significant improvement in the economy.

Analysis:

The continuation of protests despite the presidential address indicates deep-seated frustration among Nigerians over economic conditions and governance issues. The government's mixed response, combining dialogue offers with curfews and force in some areas, has so far failed to quell the unrest. The involvement of various demographics, from youth to the elderly, underscores the widespread nature of discontent.

The protests have also revealed potential vulnerabilities in government communication, as evidenced by the premature leak of the President's speech. This has been seized upon by opposition figures to further criticize the administration's competence.

The nationwide protests have highlighted widespread discontent with economic conditions and governance. Despite calls for suspension and violent crackdowns in some areas, the demonstrations continue, driven by the populace's demand for substantial change. The coming days will likely see further developments as protesters persist in their efforts to #EndBadGovernance and seek relief from economic hardships.