Amid Israel-Hezbollah strikes, Lebanon says only US can stop fighting

An Israeli airstrike on Beirut killed a senior Hezbollah commander on Tuesday as cross-border rocket attacks by both sides increased fears of a full-fledged war in the Middle East and Lebanon said only Washington could help end the fighting.

Hezbollah early on Wednesday confirmed senior commander Ibrahim Qubaisi was killed by Israeli airstrikes on Tuesday on the Lebanese capital as Israel announced earlier. Israel said Qubaisi headed the group's missile and rocket force.

Israel's offensive since Monday morning has killed 569 people, including 50 children, and wounded 1,835 in Lebanon, Health Minister Firass Abiad told Al Jazeera Mubasher TV.

The new offensive against Hezbollah has stoked fears that nearly a year of conflict between Israel and the militant Palestinian group Hamas in Gaza is escalating and could destabilise the Middle East. Britain urged its nationals to leave Lebanon and said it was moving 700 troops to Cyprus to help its citizens evacuate.

The U.N. Security Council said it would meet on Wednesday to discuss the conflict.

"Lebanon is at the brink. The people of Lebanon – the people of Israel – and the people of the world - cannot afford Lebanon to become another Gaza," U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres said.

At the U.N., which is holding its General Assembly this week, U.S. President Joe Biden made a plea for calm. "Full-scale war is not in anyone's interest. Even if a situation has escalated, a diplomatic solution is still possible," he said.

Lebanon's Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib criticized Biden's address as "not strong, not promising" and said the U.S. was the only country "that can really make a difference in the Middle East and with regard to Lebanon." Washington is Israel's longtime ally and biggest arms supplier.

The United States "is the key ... to our salvation," he told an event in New York City hosted by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

In Beirut, thousands of displaced people who fled from southern Lebanon were sheltering in schools and other buildings.

At the Technical Institute of Bir Hassan, volunteers brought water bottles, medicine and other supplies for the new arrivals.

In one classroom, 11-month-old Matila slept on a mattress while children elsewhere stood on chairs to pass time by scribbling on a whiteboard. Rima Ali Chahine, 50, said the shelter provided diapers, pastries and milk for the children.

"It's a lot of pressure for grownups and children. They're exhausted and stressed. They could not sleep," she said. "The kids - they are living through terrible conditions."

Early on Wednesday, an Israeli strike hit the seaside town of Jiyyeh, 75 km (46 miles) north of the border with Israel, two security sources said.

HEZBOLLAH WEAKENED, SAYS ISRAEL

Half a million people are estimated to have been displaced in Lebanon, said Bou Habib. He said Lebanon's prime minister hoped to meet with U.S. officials over the next two days.

The U.S. and fellow mediators Qatar and Egypt have so far been unsuccessful in their efforts to negotiate a ceasefire in the nearly year-old war in Gaza between Israel and Hamas, a Hezbollah ally.

Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian, whose country and Israel are arch-enemies, told the U.N. General Assembly the international community must "secure a permanent ceasefire in Gaza and bring an end to the desperate barbarism of Israel in Lebanon, before it engulfs the region and the world."

Israel's military said its airforce conducted "extensive strikes" on Tuesday on Hezbollah targets across southern Lebanon, including weapons storage facilities and dozens of launchers that were aimed at Israeli territory.

Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said the attacks had weakened Hezbollah and would continue. Hezbollah "has suffered a sequence of blows to its command and control, its fighters, and the means to fight. These are all severe blows," he told Israeli troops.

He accused the U.N. of shirking its responsibility to prevent Hezbollah's attacks into Israel.

Hezbollah said it launched rockets at the Dado military base in northern Israel and attacked the Atlit naval base south of Haifa with drones, among other targets.

Suspected Israeli missiles were also launched at the Syrian port city of Tartous and were intercepted by Syrian air defences, Syrian army sources said. The Israeli military declined to comment on the report.

Since the Gaza war started in October, Israel has intensified a years-long air campaign targeting Iran-aligned armed groups and their weapons transfers in Syria.

Funerals were held on Tuesday for people killed in Lebanon by Israel's bombardment. In the coastal city of Saksakiyeh, Mohammed Helal was defiant as he mourned his daughter Jouri.

"We are not afraid. Even if they kill, dissect and destroy us," he said.

Reuters

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Russia strikes apartment block in Ukraine's Kharkiv, three killed, 34 injured

Russia hit a high-rise apartment block and a bakery in Ukraine's northeastern city of Kharkiv with guided bombs on Tuesday, killing at least three people and injuring 34, with others feared trapped under rubble, authorities said.

Russian forces also launched a fresh attack further south on the city of Zaporizhzhia, the target of a series of strikes in recent days. Seven people were injured.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, writing on X, said of the Kharkiv attacks: "The targets of the Russian bombs were an apartment building, a bakery, a stadium. In other words, the everyday life of ordinary people."

The strike took place as world leaders, including Zelenskiy, gathered in New York for the United Nations General Assembly.

"There is much discussion now at the UN General Assembly about collective efforts for security and the future. But we just need to stop the terror. To have security. To have a future," Zelenskiy said.

Kharkiv Mayor Ihor Terekhov, writing on Telegram, said the Russians had hit four city districts with guided bombs. Some of the bombs hit an open area and caused little damage.

Regional governor Oleh Syniehubov said a 17-year old was among the injured. Four people were in serious conditions.

Images from the site showed a hole blown through the nine-storey apartment block, several floors of it totally destroyed. The building was hit directly, officials said.

Terekhov earlier said the building had previously been attacked by Russia at the start of its 2022 invasion.

"It was almost repaired, windows were installed, it was insulated, and prepared for the heating season. The enemy hit it a second time," Terekhov said, adding that the section of the building that suffered most damage was housing 82 people.

Kharkiv, Ukraine's second largest city, and the surrounding region regularly come under Russian attacks. Moscow's troops extensively use highly destructive guided bombs that Ukrainian air defences struggle to intercept.

Russian forces also used guided bombs in their latest attack on Zaporizhzhia, regional governor Ivan Fedorov said.

Several private homes were destroyed in the strike and four of the seven injured were in hospital. One person was killed in an overnight strike on the city.

Kyiv, which is pressing allies to allow deep strikes into Russia, says the most effective means of reducing the attacks is to target not the bombs but planes and airfields hosting them.

Russia denies targeting civilians, although it has killed thousands during more than 2 1/2 years of war.

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Ukraine's failed attacks, losses: situation in Kursk Region

Four Ukrainian servicemen have been captured as a result of a failed enemy attempt to attack Malaya Loknya and Obukhovka in the Kursk Region, the Russian Defense Ministry said.

Ukraine lost more than 360 troops over the day. In total, the enemy has lost over 16,700 servicemen since fighting began in the region.

TASS has gathered the key news about the unfolding situation.

Operation to neutralize Ukrainian forces

- Over the day, the Russian military repelled enemy attempts to attack Malaya Loknya and Obukhovka.

- They also repelled five Ukrainian attempts to break through the border towards Medvezhye and Novy Put.

- The Russian military struck Ukrainian formations near Lyubimovka, Daryino, Novy Put, Nikolayevo-Daryino and Plekhovo.

- Russian jets struck Ukrainian reserves in the Sumy Region.

Ukraine’s losses

- Over the day, the enemy lost more than 360 servicemen and 13 armored vehicles, including an infantry fighting vehicle and 12 armored fighting vehicles, as well as four artillery pieces, two multiple rocket launchers, three electronic warfare stations and 11 other vehicles. Four Ukrainian servicemen were captured.

- Since the beginning of hostilities in Russia's borderline region, Ukraine's losses have amounted to more than 16,700 servicemen, 127 tanks, 61 infantry fighting vehicles, 95 armored personnel carriers, 809 armored combat vehicles, 508 vehicles, 136 artillery pieces, 31 multiple rocket launchers, including eight HIMARS and six US-made MLRS, eight anti-aircraft missile launchers, five transport and loading vehicles, 35 radar stations, eight counter-battery radars, two air defense radars, 18 pieces of engineering equipment, including 11 engineering demolition vehicles and one UR-77 demining unit, as well as an armored repair vehicle.

Alaudinov's statements

- The Ukrainian armed forces are abandoning their positions in the Kursk Region en masse, Deputy Chief of the Main Military-Political Directorate of the Russian Armed Forces, Commander of the Akhmat special forces, Major-General Apty Alaudinov said.

Reuters/Tass

The rising cost of living in Africa has triggered a wave of protests in recent months, underscoring the disproportionately higher economic and social costs of inflation on a continent with persistent widespread poverty and heightened vulnerability to global volatility. The world, it seems, is now living through a tale of two inflations.

Initially, the current inflation cycle – a product of pandemic supply shocks and escalating geopolitical tensions – affected developed and developing countries alike. But inflationary pressures have become less synchronous over time. While price growth has fallen sharply in advanced economies, it remains stubbornly high – and, in some cases, rising – in Africa. And even though inflation in many developed countries is trending down to central banks’ 2% target, it has hit double digits in nearly one-third of African countries (a ratio that is even higher when excluding CFA franc countries, where the euro peg has contributed to monetary stability).

For example, the annualized inflation rate in Nigeria, one of Africa’s largest economies, hit 34% – a 28-year high – in May, and is forecast to remain elevated in the second half of the year, largely owing to soaring food inflation, which accelerated to 40%. This stands to reduce household purchasing power and raise the risk of food insecurity even more, especially for Nigeria’s growing rank of poverty-stricken and most vulnerable citizens. The country has the world’s largest population living in poverty after India. Meanwhile, government reforms, including the sharp devaluation of the naira – which has lost 70% of its value against the dollar since June 2023 – to attract foreign investors, have only made matters worse for a country that relies heavily on imports of food and other essentials.

In August, protests against the resulting economic hardship spread across several large Nigerian cities. They followed weeks of riots in Kenya against the government’s finance bill, which proposed tax hikes on basic goods such as oil, bread, and sanitary pads, even as millions were already struggling to make ends meet. Dozens of demonstrators in both countries were killed during official attempts to quell the uprisings.

Food-price inflation affects low-income households more than their high-income counterparts because they spend a greater portion of their budget on necessities. Consider that food costs account for 16% of consumer spending in advanced economies, but around 40% in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This difference in the composition of spending explains the more regressive nature of inflation in SSA, which is home to 60% of the world’s extreme poor, and why inflation there carries a greater risk of political upheaval.

The lack of formal employment opportunities has also exacerbated Africa’s cost-of-living crisis. To be sure, the wages of low-income workers with formal jobs are not keeping pace with price increases. But informal sector activities – a disguised form of unemployment and constraint on shared prosperity – account for roughly 85% of total employment on the continent, and these workers must also deal with income volatility and unexpected components of inflation, further tightening the squeeze on households.

Recent research assessing the distributional effects of the inflation cycle on households in the United States found a phenomenon known as “inflation inequality”: prices have risen more quickly for those at the bottom of the income distribution than for those at the top. The spread of protests across Africa suggests that a similar dynamic is at work on the continent, where the disproportionately higher food prices caused by positive exchange-rate pass-throughs have dramatically increased the welfare costs of this inflation cycle.

Government policies have also heightened the cost-of-living crisis. Instead of supporting vulnerable groups through targeted interventions, African governments have indiscriminately raised taxes and cut spending to meet external liabilities. Interest payments on sovereign debt now consume around one-third of Kenya’s revenue and more than two-thirds of Nigeria’s. In both countries, procyclical fiscal policy and austerity measures have had a knock-on effect on prices, stoking inflation and worsening the cost-of-living crisis.

But in response to the protests, governments are reversing some of their procyclical policies or implementing complementary measures to mitigate their impact. Kenyan President William Ruto dismissed his entire cabinet and withdrew the controversial finance bill, which was expected to raise $2.7 billion in additional revenue to meet fiscal targets set by the International Monetary Fund. In Nigeria, the government has announced a 150-day suspension of import duties for certain foods to alleviate the pressure on struggling households.

Nonetheless, more must be done to close the gap between actual and potential growth and expand opportunities for young people. Africa is the world’s most natural-resource-rich continent, yet Africans face bleak futures in countries that lack sufficient engineers and political will to transform these resources, create enough well-paying jobs, and expand prosperity. Africa’s excessive reliance on imports as an alternative to expanding aggregate output has sustained external imbalances and hollowed out the jobs market, causing more people to fall into destitution.

To meet the aspirations of young populations, African governments should rethink constraints on public spending and overcomethe recurrent balance-of-payments crises that have long shaped economic policy across the continent. Increased investment in building a workforce that is fluent in emerging technologies is critical to spurring industrialization. This, in turn, would bolster Africa’s manufacturing sector, which in other parts of the world has long served as a social escalator and growth accelerator, catalyzing convergence with high-income countries. The transformation of African economies will also drive the development of regional value chains, bolster intra-African trade (and thus mitigate the region’s exposure to global volatility), and build large national buffers to wean the region off debilitating aid dependency.

Africa’s policymakers must not only invest in human capital to move their countries up the value ladder in a global economy where technology has become a key driver of growth. They must also strive to equalize access to opportunities and achieve shared prosperity to strengthen the concept of the nation-state and enhance national security. To quote Samora Machel, the first president of Mozambique, “For the nation to live, the tribe must die.” For too long, a tribal approach to governance has undermined national development, perpetuating intergenerational poverty and exacerbating inflation inequality.

Project Syndicate

Being a great leader is not only about charisma or communicating the right way. It's about building a personal connectionand earning the respect of others. There is no surefire recipe for success, but the following seven habits can help you increase your influence:

1. Cultivate self-belief.

Having confidence in yourself is a basic requirement for being seen as a leader. Not only will you be more effective in trying to present your vision, but it will also make you more likable, encouraging others to trust and follow you. Confidence is a powerful tool for inspiring others.

2. Treat others with respect.

Respect is a common currency of relationships. Treat everyone with dignity, and not simply those above or below you in position. And remember that by treating people respectfully, you earn their trust and make them more loyal employees.

3. Show genuine interest.

Good leaders are curious and empathetic--they genuinely care about other people. Listen to what others say, ask clarifying questions, and care about the people around you.

4. Communicate effectively.

Be a clear communicator. Avoid industry jargon. Be concise. Make your words easy to digest. Use positive language and be upbeat.

5. Smile and be approachable.

A smile can open doors and make people feel at ease. Be approachable and willing to engage. You're going to feel even more likable and influential when you're friendly.

6. Be helpful and supportive.

A leader who offers help and support is a valuable asset on any team. Look for opportunities to assist others and be prepared to lend a hand when asked. This will convey your concern for your people.

7. Be authentic.

Above all, be authentic--say what you think and do what you say. People respond to leaders they can believe in.

If you focus on practicing these seven habits, then you will become a truly magnetic leader. And remember, influence is built on respect, trust, and authenticity. So, the more you are able to model those behaviors, the more influence you will have.

Inc

Once again, Nigeria’s electoral process has descended into a grotesque spectacle, as witnessed in the recent Edo State governorship election. What transpired on September 21, 2024, was not an election in any democratic sense, but rather a shameless transaction, where votes were auctioned to the highest bidder. Olumide Akpata, the Labour Party candidate, aptly described the event as a "bidding war" for votes between the two dominant parties, the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). This "election" is yet another confirmation that Nigeria’s democracy has been hijacked by political entrepreneurs who have mastered the art of manipulating poverty to serve their insidious ends.

In Edo State, voters were not exercising their democratic right to choose a leader, but were instead coerced into selling their future for a few thousand naira. Both the APC and PDP, with their respective access to state coffers, engaged in a flagrant display of ill-gotten wealth to buy votes, thereby reducing the electoral process to nothing more than a marketplace of corruption. According to reports, the APC's candidate, Monday Okpebholo, who was declared the winner, secured 291,667 votes, while his closest rival, Asue Ighodalo of the PDP, garnered 247,274. Akpata, who finished third with 22,763 votes, was clear in his condemnation: what occurred in Edo was a "show of shame."

The irony of this situation is inescapable. Both the APC and PDP, entities that have presided over Nigeria’s deepening economic misery, are the very forces perpetuating the cycle of poverty and poor governance that traps the electorate. The weaponization of poverty has become their most effective tool. In a country where many struggle daily to survive, it is no wonder that vote-buying schemes are so effective. The people of Edo were not just buying into a politician’s manifesto; they were buying into the illusion that the few naira in their hands could alleviate their suffering, even if only temporarily.

This political charade was further exposed by the civil society organization Yiaga Africa, which noted that the election failed the integrity test, pointing to inconsistencies in the collation process and widespread voter intimidation. Akpata went as far as to accuse his own party agents and some supporters of participating in this disgraceful "cash-and-carry" approach to politics. His refusal to engage in such practices came at a great personal cost, as even his own polling unit was lost—an indictment of a system that rewards corruption and punishes integrity.

Peter Obi, the Labour Party’s presidential candidate in the 2023 general election, voiced his outrage over the Edo election, calling it a blatant example of "state capture" that continues to undermine Nigeria's democratic process. He rightfully pointed out that any nation whose leadership recruitment process is so deeply flawed is doomed. Obi’s critique cuts to the heart of the matter: Nigeria’s political system, as it stands, cannot produce the kind of leadership needed to move the country forward.

What we are witnessing in Edo and across the country is not an anomaly—it is the system working exactly as it was designed to, by those in power. The APC and PDP have become indistinguishable in their shared commitment to looting the country’s resources and exploiting its citizens. Elections have become a mere formality, a ritual in which the outcome is predetermined by who can afford the largest bribe. It no longer matters which party wins; the result is the same: misrule, corruption, and the entrenchment of poverty.

As Akpata pointed out, the consequences of this broken system are dire. The governor-elect in Edo will not serve the interests of the people, but rather the interests of the godfathers and power brokers who financed his campaign. Edo State, like much of Nigeria, will continue to suffer from underdevelopment, resource misallocation, and governance that serves a select few at the expense of the many.

The current electoral system in Nigeria is beyond reform. It is a deeply entrenched mechanism of state capture, designed to preserve the power of a corrupt elite. What is needed is a radical overhaul—an entirely new system built from the ground up, one that prioritizes accountability, transparency, and the will of the people. This is the conversation that Nigeria’s intelligentsia, its civil society, and its few remaining ethical leaders must begin in earnest.

The time for half measures and cosmetic reforms is over. If Nigeria is to have any hope of a brighter future, it must abandon this failed system and build one that truly represents the aspirations of its people. Until then, elections like the one in Edo will remain nothing more than hollow transactions, ensuring that the cycle of poverty, corruption, and bad governance continues unchecked.

Aliko Dangote, founder of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, has urged the federal government to remove the petrol subsidy, stating that now is the opportune time to take this step. In an interview with Bloomberg TV on Monday, Dangote explained that many countries have already eliminated subsidies, and Nigeria should follow suit.

According to Dangote, subsidies are a complex issue that can lead to inflated prices. He pointed out that government spending on subsidies often exceeds what is necessary, adding that removing them could help alleviate financial pressure.

Dangote also revealed that petrol sold by his refinery within Nigeria would be closely monitored to ensure accurate data on consumption. He highlighted the lack of reliable information on the country’s actual petrol usage, with estimates ranging from 60 million litres per day to much lower figures. Dangote explained that by producing domestically and tracking the distribution, his refinery would help provide clear data and reduce fuel smuggling.

“By tracking trucks and ships, we can ensure that the oil stays within Nigeria, helping the government save money,” he said. Dangote further noted that, despite public perception, petrol in Nigeria is about 40 percent cheaper than in Saudi Arabia, which he believes is unsustainable.

Dangote emphasized that continuing to subsidize petrol is no longer affordable for the Nigerian government. He explained that petrol prices in Nigeria are roughly 60 percent lower than those in neighboring countries, leading to significant smuggling due to porous borders.

“The government simply cannot maintain the level of subsidies it is paying,” he said.

Although the decision to end the subsidy rests with the government, Dangote remarked that it is inevitable that the subsidy will eventually be removed. He added that his company, as a private enterprise, must prioritize profitability, having invested $20 billion in the refinery.

"We built this refinery to make a profit, and the removal of subsidies is a government decision, not ours," he concluded.

The price of Automotive Gas Oil, commonly known as diesel, saw a sharp year-on-year increase of 64.58 percent in Nigeria, with the average price reaching N1,406.05 per litre in August 2024, compared to N854.32 per litre in August 2023. This data comes from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in its September 2024 Automotive Gas Oil (Diesel) Price Watch Report, released on Monday.

This significant hike highlights the growing financial strain on consumers as fuel prices continue to rise. The report also noted a month-on-month increase of 1.93 percent, as the average price of diesel rose from N1,379.48 in July 2024 to N1,406.05 in August 2024.

The NBS gathered data from over 10,000 respondents across all 774 Local Government Areas in Nigeria, covering the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja.

Regional Price Variations

Diesel prices varied significantly across different states, with the highest average prices recorded in Kaduna, Bauchi, and Taraba states. Kaduna led with N1,930.79 per litre, followed by Bauchi at N1,927.34 and Taraba at N1,638.14. In contrast, Lagos had the lowest price at N1,237.14 per litre, followed by Ogun at N1,255.00 and Osun at N1,268.18 per litre.

A zonal analysis revealed that the North-East region had the highest average price at N1,621.23 per litre, while the South-West recorded the lowest at N1,283.47 per litre. These variations reflect differing supply and demand conditions, transportation costs, and regional market factors across the country.

Economic Impact

The sharp rise in diesel prices adds to the financial pressure on Nigerians, who are already dealing with inflation. In August 2024, the headline inflation rate eased slightly to 32.15 percent, down from 33.40 percent in July 2024, but month-on-month inflation remained high at 2.22 percent, showing persistent price increases.

Food inflation also stayed high at 37.52 percent in August 2024, further burdening households struggling with rising living costs amid climbing fuel prices. The ongoing inflationary pressures continue to challenge Nigerians, particularly in maintaining household budgets and coping with escalating fuel and food costs.

Charles Adewole

Though NNPCL is not a saint, the conflict between the national oil company and Dangote Refinery is a typical Aliko Dangote strategy for muscling out competition

Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest man until August 2024, and Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited, NNPCL, Nigeria’s state oil company, have many things in common. Both are business partners; both are avid monopolists; both leverage on government patronage to muscle out competition and both are passionately Nigerian, among other shared characteristics.

Dangote is Nigeria’s top business icon. From an initial seed money of N500,000 loan from his uncle, he started business with in 1977, Dangote bullied his way to a $13.4 billion net worth in August 2024, down from $13.9bn in April. He dominates any field of business endeavour he is into or quits. Today, the Dangote Group has international operations in Benin, Ghana, Zambia, and Togo. He scaled up from a trading company to the largest industrial group in Nigeria - spanning Dangote Sugar Refinery, Dangote Cement, Dangote Flour, salt factories, flour mills, a major importer of rice, fish, pasta, and fertilizer. The company also exports cotton, cashew nuts, cocoa, sesame seeds, and ginger and has major investments in real estate, banking, transport, textiles, oil, and gas.

Dangote Sugar controls 70 percent of the sugar market in Nigeria with an average production of 800,000 metric tonnes per annum; while he controls 65 percent of the cement market with a production capacity of 52.0 million tonnes per year across ten countries. Put together, Dangote Group employs over 11,000 workers in West Africa. So Dangote is a Nigerian success story.

Having made a success of most businesses he had gone into, Dangote decided to take advantage of the supply gaps in the lower stream of Nigerian oil sector by building an oil refinery. He is a big player; so he started building the Dangote Refinery said to be the largest single-train refinery in the world at the cost of $19 billion project in 2017. It took him seven years to complete it in 2024. However, then president, Muhamadu Buhari commissioned the refinery ahead of its completion on May 23, 2023. It was to take another one year plus for the company to refine its first litre of fuel.

Dangote is characteristically a very calculative and cautious investor. Located in the South-East of the Lekki Free Trade Zone (FTZ) in Ibeju-Lekki, Lagos, and covering a land area of about 2,635 hectares, you would expect Lagos State to have an equity participation to give the host state a sense of belonging and a prime investment. However, Dangote managed to make an outright purchase of the land at the cost of $100m.

Dangote financed the refinery through funds from the Dangote Group, loans and investment by NNPCL. On August 4, 2021, Nigeria’s Federal Executive Council approved request by NNPC to acquire a 20 percent stake in the refinery for $2.76 billion. However, on July 15, 2024, Dangote announced that “NNPC no loner owns 20 percent stake in the Dangote Refinery. They were to pay their balance in June but yet to fulfill their obligations. Now they only own a 7.2 percent stake in the refinery.” It then means that Dangote owns 92.8 percent of Dangote Petroleum Refinery and NNPC a minor shareholder with 7.2 percent.

The first and most important mission statement of the company is “To deliver strong returns to our shareholders by selling high-quality products at affordable prices, backed by excellent customer service.” Others are: “To help Nigeria and other African countries towards self-reliance and self-sufficiency in the production of the world’s most basic commodity, by establishing efficient production facilities in strategic locations close to key growth markets. To provide economic benefits to local communities, by establishing efficient production facilities in strategic locations close to key growth markets. To provide economic benefits to local communities by way of direct and indirect employment in all countries in which we operate. To lead the way in areas such as governance, sustainability and environmental conservation and to set a good example for other companies to follow.”

Among its stated three core values is “leadership: We thrive on being leaders in our business, markets and communities. To drive this, we focus on continuous improvement, partnership and professionalism.” The oil industry is a multi-stakeholder industry; so, achieving the leadership goal will not be without conflicts. This quest for ‘leadership’ in every business he does leads to obsession for power and control by Dangote. This is marked by carcasses of companies he trampled upon on the way to achieving his idea of ‘leadership.’

Followers of the Dangote business model had predicted that his entry into the down stream sector of the oil industry will not lead to lower prices but would rather lead to higher prices. This happened in the cement sector where Dangote’s 65 percent dominance has not led to lower cost. As soon as the company muscled out other competitors, prices escalated and continue to increase at will because the company is focused on profit for its shareholders, not public sentiments.

True to this, the pump price of petrol rose swiftly on Dangote’s entry into the market. By the business arrangement, Dangote Refinery can sell diesel and other products directly to marketers; while petrol would be sold only to NNPC for distribution to the marketers. According Olufemi Soneye, spokesperson of NNPC, Dangote sold the first delivery to NNPC at the cost of N898 per litre.

Anthony Chiejina, group chief branding and communication officer of Dangote Refinery denied this in an official statementthus: “Our attention has been drawn to a statement attributed to NNPCL spokesperson, Olufemi Soneye, that we sell our PMS at N898 per litre to the NNPCL. This statement is both misleading and mischievous, deliberately aimed at undermining the milestone achievement recorded today, September 15, 2024, towards addressing energy insufficiency and insecurity, which has bedeviled the economy in the past 50 years.

“We urge Nigerians to disregard this malicious statement and await a formal announcement on the pricing, by the Technical Sub-Committee on Naira-based crude sales to local refineries, appointed by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, which will commence on October 1, 2024, bearing in mind that our current stock of crude was procured in dollars.

“It should be noted that we sold the products to NNPC in dollars with lots of savings against what they are already importing. With this action, there will be petrol in every local government area of the country regardless of their remote nature. We assure Nigerians of availability of quality petroleum products and putting an end to the endemic fuel scarcity in the country.”

Chiejina was being economical with the truth. He denied selling at N898 but did not disclose how much the company sold what amounted to ‘lots of savings.’ However, NNPCL reaffirmed N898 and Dangote kept quiet.

In addition to landing costs from refineries, NNPCL explains that suppliers pay statutory and regulatory charges for each litre of petrol as follows: NMDPRA fee N8.99; inspection fee N0.97; distribution cost (Lagos) N15.00; and profit margin N26.48. After adding freight and other costs, the product pump price jumps to N950.22 per litre in Lagos, N980.22 in Rivers, N992.22 in Abuja and N1,019 in Maiduguri.

Shortfall in Dangote supply

Apart from the price conflict, Dangote failed to deliver on its supply obligations. By the agreement between both parties, Dangote Refinery is supposed to deliver 25 million litres daily to NNPC for September. From October, this would go up to 35 million litres daily. In the first three days, it recorded 65 million litres supply gap. It means that instead of supplying 75 million litres in three days, Dangote supplied only 10.3 million litres through its gantry loading system, giving a massive shortfall of nearly 65 million litres.  

This is why there is fuel shortage in the country, despite the deregulated price, allowing black marketers to step into the supply gap and sell at as much as N1,500 a litre in Abuja. In expectation of the Dangote deliveries, The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, NMDPRA, did not clear NNPC Trading Limited to import petrol for October and onwards, revealed an official under anonymity. This has created serious supply gap from Dangote Refinery as insiders revealed there is not enough product to go round the country.

According to NMDPRA, the truckout of petrol from depots across the country averaged 51.10 million litres daily between 1 January 2024 and 18 September 2024. Dangote Refinery has an installed capacity of 650,000 barrels daily; while NNPC’s four refineries have a joint capacity of 450,000 b/d. Nigeria has 500,000 b/d allocation for domestic use.

On 15 September, the first day of loading, the Dangote Refinery supplied NNPC Retail Ltd 2.48 million litres of petrol in 56 trucks. On 16 September, NNPC Retail and AYM Shafa 74 truck loaded 3.3 million litres; while on 17 September 4.5 million, giving a total of 10.3 million litres in three days, instead of 75 million litres.

However, Chiejina, claimed in an interview with Vanguard Newspaper, without evidence, that Dangote Refinery had supplied 111 million litres within those three days. “We have already loaded 111 million litres of petrol, and the exercise is ongoing. We are refining and have no reason not to load. So, loading is ongoing and we will continue to provide the product to the market,” Vanguard quoted him as saying.

Here again, Chiejina appears to have been economical with the truth as official Dangote Refinery documents for the period showed that the facility only refined 24,700 metric tonnes of petrol, about 33 million litres at 1,322.76 litres per ton. This is 42 million litres short of the 75 million the refinery committed to supplying for three days, at 25 million per day. The refinery, according marketers must load at least 500 trucks daily, with each vehicle carrying at least 50,000 litres of petrol to meet this volume. This appears difficult but with the facility’s 177 loading points, they feel it can be done.

It was gathered that NNPC asked the refinery for vessel loading but were told that the operation facilities needed to be prepared. Consequently, the vessel MT Binta Saleh which was already on standby to proceed for loading, was withdrawn, one official said.

Dangote’s trail of monopoly

Dangote’s paved road of business success is littered with the skeletons of competitors he hounded out of business through government patronage. He is said not to be comfortable with a level playing field. In United States and other western democracies, he would have been charged with the violation of antitrust laws on fair competition in business, which attracts heavy sanctions and fines. In cement and sugar businesses, many competitors without his level of government leverage have been destroyed and their territories annexed. Ibeto Cement has a bitter story to tell. Ibeto was an obstacle to Dangote in the Eastern market with his bulking plant in Port Harcourt and having acquired the legendary Nigercem Nkalagu for the backward integration project, his cement was preferred to Dangote in the East. When he collapsed under the weight of Dangote-FG conspiracy, Dangote trailers rolled triumphantly into the lucrative Southeast market.

An industry analyst says that Dangote doesn’t have the character of a good businessman. In the past 20 years of his business imperialism within which he became the richest man in Africa and the 158th in the world, Obasnjo, Jonathan and Buhari gave him leeway to do quite a whole lot of things to the detriment of competition.

In Kura, near Kaduna, a very large rice growing area, a very large portion of land was acquired by Dangote from the villagers on the pretence that he wanted to set up a tomato business. Today, no compensation has been paid to those people. “There’s no rice growing there and there’s no tomato farm or factory,” lamented a villager.

The same story obtains in the sugar industry. When he went into the sugar industry, virtually every other importer was priced out of the market and he bestrode the market like a colossus. So, he has always been a monopolistic businessman who fights dirty to destroy fair competition.

In cement, only BUA matched up and refused to be muscled out of business. The same pitched battle in Sugar. He embarked on the noodles manufacturing warfare but the Indomie group and Spagetti by Flour Mills gave him a good chase.

According to industry sources, anything Dangote does he wants to be on top of it; he wants to be a monopolistic trader that he always wants to be.

Coming into the downstream sector, Dangote has brought the same strategy of ‘leadership’, not minding there were other players before his arrival. And petrol is a commodity that affects every Nigerian, just like salt, sugar and rice. This mentality makes a conflict inevitable in the downstream oil sector because NNPC is no longer a lame government parastatal. It is now a limited liability company, primed for business success under standard corporate governance. Dangote has built a 650,000 b/d refinery and NNPCL has 450,000 b/d capacity refineries. Dangote tells the whole country the refinery can meet Nigeria’s daily consumption and export the balance.

So what becomes of NNPCL refineries, whose rehabilitations are nearing completion? Dangote appears not ready to share the domestic market with NNPCL and emerging players, including expected modular refineries in the Niger Delta.

He is now said to be a business monster created by federal government patronage. They gave him exchange rate at CBN rate, gave him leeway to import and even to invest NNPC money into his refinery business. Now the refinery is said to be ready and Dangote signed an agreement to be allocated crude oil for refining. However, instead of refining all that was given to him he allegedly exported some of the crude oil, obviously to make dollars. This suggests that he intends to become an exporter of crude oil as well by stealing the oil allocated to him for domestic use and exporting it for higher profit! In countries like China, Singapore and North Korea, this could earn one life imprisonment or death sentence. But Dangote gets away with it in Nigeria and does even more daily.

The question being asked is, “how come that with the first sale you couldn’t deliver the 25 metric tons you signed off on?” The agreement is simple and NNPC has been clear on what they want; they give you fuel, you refine and give back to them so they can subsidize and distribute. NNPC says they are not fixing price for Dangote. Dangote can fix his own price but NNPC has a share price they can always collect from Dangote. They are partners. They put up resources together to set up the refinery. The refinery has a percentage of NNPC interest said to be 20 percent by NNPC but 7.2 percent by Dangote.

“This is not the old NNPC; this is the new NNPC Limited. It’s a limited liability company; it’s not like the old NNPC where anybody could do anything and get away with it. This time they are under public scrutiny. And being under public scrutiny, it becomes absolutely necessary to comply with the laws of the land,” explains an insider not authorized to speak for the company.

According to him, “The new NNPC is the first one that has taken the step of upgrading the refineries. Port Harcourt is on stream; it’s almost ready.” This means in addition to being partners, Dangote and NNPCL will soon be bitter business rivals competing for clients in the downstream sector.

“This is the man, Dangote; he is obsessed with himself. He is obsessed with everything.  Obsessed with wanting to be on top of everything. Obsessed with wanting to be in control; obsessed with making sure that every other competitor is trampled upon!” said a stakeholder.

The Political Disconnection

Dangote is a smart businessman. He knows he can leverage on politics to feather his business cap but he also knows that a turn in political fortune can spell doom for one’s business empire. Because of this wisdom he stays away from party politics. He is not member of any political party but is said to donate generously to campaign funds of leading presidential candidates and gubernatorial candidates of states where he has investments. This way, head or tail, he wins. It is said that what he does is to support the two frontrunners from leading parties so that anyone that eventually wins will favour him. It was strongly alleged that Obasanjo attempted to pressure him into politics and make him run for the top job but Dangote wisely declined so he could continue building his business empire.

However, in 2023, it is whispered that Dangote did not support Tinubu but rather supported Atiku Abubakar of PDP. Some people are wondering if the conflict is a fall out of political brinkmanship or an attempt to frustrate the regime of Bola Tinubu with petrol until it gets disfavoured in the eyes of the public?

Be that as it may, business is supposed to be business. As you signed an agreement, you should deliver. “Stop blackmailing the federal government. Stop ridiculing your business partner NNPC Limited,” advised an industry stakeholder who does not want to be on record.

In May 2024, Dangote reaffirmed his ambition regarding the re-appropriation of energy resources in Africa saying, “My dream is to use raw materials from Africa, refine them and sell them on our own market,” yet he sold the first crude oil given to him to refine. For this dream to work in Nigeria’s downstream oil sector, it must be a shared solution. It must go beyond Dangote’s obsession with domination and control to embrace all industry stakeholders, ensure a fair pricing for product users and bring peace and stability to Nigeria.

Lebanon says Israeli airstrikes kill at least 492, residents flee from south

Israel's military said it launched airstrikes against Hezbollah sites in Lebanon on Monday, which Lebanese authorities said had killed 492 people and sent tens of thousands fleeing for safety in the country's deadliest day in decades.

After some of the heaviest cross-border exchanges of fire since hostilities flared in October, Israel warned people in Lebanon to evacuate areas where it said the armed movement was storing weapons.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sent a short video statement addressed to the Lebanese people.

"Israel's war is not with you, it's with Hezbollah. For too long Hezbollah has been using you as human shields," he said.

Families from south Lebanon loaded cars, vans and trucks with belongings and people, sometimes multiple generations in one vehicle. As bombs rained down, children crammed onto parents' laps and suitcases were tied to car roofs.

Highways north were gridlocked. "I grabbed all the important papers and we got out. Strikes all around us. It was terrifying," said Abed Afou, who was with his family, including three sons aged 6 to 13 and several other relatives. They sat in traffic as it crawled north.

They did not know where they would stay, he said, but just wanted to reach Beirut.

Nasser Yassin, the Lebanese minister coordinating the crisis response, told Reuters 89 temporary shelters in schools and other facilities had been activated, with capacity for more than 26,000 people as civilians fled "Israeli atrocities".

After almost a year of war against Hamas in Gaza on its southern border, Israel is shifting its focus to the northern frontier, where Iran-backed Hezbollah has been firing rockets into Israel in support of Hamas, also backed by Iran.

Israel's military said it struck Hezbollah in Lebanon's south, east and north, including "launchers, command posts and terrorist infrastructure." The Israeli Air Force struck about 1,600 Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley, it said.

Lebanon's health ministry said at least 492 people had been killed, including 35 children, and 1,645 wounded. One Lebanese official said it was Lebanon's highest daily death toll from violence since the 1975-1990 civil war.

The fighting has raised fears that the U.S., Israel's close ally, and Iran will be sucked into a wider war.

Saudi Arabia expressed deep concern on Monday and urged all parties to exercise restraint, state news agency SPA reported.

A senior U.S. State Department official said the United States did not support a cross-border escalation between Israel and Hezbollah and that Washington was going to discuss "concrete ideas" with allies and partners to prevent the war from broadening.

Israeli officials have said the recent uptick in airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon is designed to force the Iran-aligned group to agree to a diplomatic solution.

The U.S. official, briefing reporters in New York on condition of anonymity, pushed back on the Israeli position, saying the Biden administration was focused on "reducing tensions ... and breaking the cycle of strike-counterstrike."

Also in New York, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Israel wanted to drag the Middle East into a full-blown war by provoking Iran to join the Israel-Hezbollah conflict.

"It is Israel that seeks to create this all-out conflict," he told journalists after his arrival to attend the U.N. General Assembly, saying the consequences of such instability would be irreversible.

CONFLICT 'PEAK'

Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said Monday marked a "significant peak" in the nearly year-long conflict.

"On this day we have taken out of order tens of thousands of rockets and precise munition. What Hezbollah has built over a period of 20 years since the second Lebanon War is in fact being destroyed by the IDF," he said in a statement, referring to the Israel Defense Forces.

On Monday evening Israel launched a strike on Beirut's southern suburbs aimed at senior Hezbollah leader Ali Karaki, the head of the southern front. Hezbollah later said he was safe and had moved to a secure location.

But Hamas' armed wing said its field commander in southern Lebanon, Mahmoud al Nader, was killed in an Israeli air strike.

Daniel Hagari said in a statement that Israeli strikes had hit long-range cruise missiles, heavyweight rockets, short-range rockets and explosive drones.

In response, Hezbollah said it launched dozens of missiles at a military base in northern Israel.

Sirens warning of Hezbollah rocket fire sounded across northern Israel, including in the port city of Haifa, and in the northern part of the occupied West Bank, the military said.

About 60,000 people have been evacuated from northern Israel because of the cross-border fighting. Gallant said the campaign would continue until the residents had returned to their homes. Hezbollah for its part has vowed to fight until there is a ceasefire in Gaza.

Hagari said Hezbollah put weaponry "inside Lebanese villages and civilian homes, and intended to fire them toward civilians in Israel while endangering the Lebanese civilian population."

Hezbollah has not commented on the assertion that it has hidden weapons in houses, which Reuters could not independently verify, but it has said it does not place military infrastructure near civilians.

The strikes have redoubled the pressure on the group, which last week suffered heavy losses when thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies used by its members exploded. The operation was widely attributed to Israel, which has not confirmed nor denied responsibility.

The foreign ministers of the Group of Seven major democracies warned that the Middle East risked being dragged into a broader conflict that no country would gain from, according to a statement released after meeting on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.

Reuters

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Ukraine's Zelenskiy heads to US with 'victory plan' at perilous moment

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy travels to the United States to set out a "victory plan" to his closest ally this week, in an urgent attempt to influence White House policy on Ukraine's war with Russia no matter who wins the U.S. elections in November.

The Ukrainian leader has said he wants to present the plan to President Joe Biden and his two potential successors, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, during the trip, which will see Zelenskiy addressing the U.N. General Assembly on Tuesday.

Zelenskiy has said that if the plan is backed by the West, it will have a broad impact on Moscow, including a psychological one that could help compel Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war diplomatically.

"The Victory Plan envisages quick and concrete steps by our strategic partners - from now until the end of December," Zelenskiy told reporters on Friday.

He added that the plan would act as a "bridge" to a second Ukraine-led summit on peace that Kyiv wants to hold and invite Russia to later this year.

There is no alternative to peace, Zelenskiy has said, "no freezing of the war or any other manipulations that would simply postpone Russian aggression to another stage".

Yet the two sides remain far apart.

Zelenskiy wants Ukraine inside NATO and the European Union and Russia driven from all Ukrainian territory, though he says the latter aim can be achieved diplomatically. Putin says peace talks can only begin if Kyiv abandons swathes of eastern and southern Ukraine to Russia and drops its NATO membership plan.

Zelenskiy's trip comes at a perilous juncture for Ukraine. A Trump victory in the Nov. 5 presidential election could prompt a reset of Washington's policy on Ukraine, which relies heavily on U.S. military and financial support.

During a TV debate, Trump refused to say if he wanted Ukraine to defeat Russia and said he would try to end the war before taking office if he wins. Harris accused Trump of seeking Kyiv's swift and unconditional capitulation.

As the election nears, Kyiv has put on a show of strength, rapidly seizing land in a high-risk Aug. 6 incursion into Russia's Kursk region, touting new weapons including a "drone missile" and ballistic weapon and launching major drone strikes.

One attack caused a massive blast at an ammo dump in Russia's Tver region last Wednesday.

Russia has ramped up drone and missile attacks, taken receipt of Iranian ballistic missiles, according to the West, ordered an increase in the size of its army, moved to change its nuclear doctrine and stepped up its eastern offensive.

'BIDEN'S DECISION'

U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has said Biden is eager to discuss Zelenskiy's "comprehensive strategy for success in this war" against Russia.

Zelenskiy said his plan consists of a small number of points and that "all these points depend on Biden's decision, not Putin's".

On Friday, the leader said the steps involved establishing Ukraine's place in the world's "security architecture", battlefield decisions including the Kursk operation, bolstering Ukraine's armoury and supporting the economy.

Oleksandr Kovalenko, a Ukrainian military analyst, said Zelenskiy might press for longer-term assurances of aid into 2025 and seek some kind of declaration of post-Biden continuity in support.

"This will be a very important moment. Perhaps in some ways, in a political and military-political sense, it will be a pivotal moment," he said.

Zelenskiy is almost certain to repeat his call on Biden to authorise long-range strikes into Russia, a move Moscow has said would make NATO members direct participants in the war and elicit a response.

Ukraine wants to strike military installations up to 300 km (186 miles) inside Russia, such as airfields that host attack helicopters and warplanes used to fire glide bombs. Washington has said it does not see the easing of those restrictions as a battlefield game-changer.

Russia, which occupies 18% of Ukrainian territory, has been on the offensive since last October and in August chalked up its fastest sustained recent month of advances.

Ukraine's toehold in Russia's Kursk region could serve as a bargaining chip at talks or as an insurance policy against any outside push to freeze the war along current lines. But Kyiv would have to hold the territory amid serious manpower challenges against a much larger foe.

Meanwhile, Russia has been making progress towards the transport hub of Pokrovsk. Its capture could wreak havoc with Ukrainian logistics and open up new lines of attack.

Kovalenko said Russia likely wanted to capture Pokrovsk by the year-end.

"That would allow them... to strengthen pressure on the information front to catalyse thoughts of peace negotiations, naturally on their terms," he said.

CHALLENGES

Ukraine hopes to advance a blueprint for peace at a second international summit later this year and says Russia will be invited at the request of other participants. The first one in Switzerland pointedly shunned Moscow in June and was skipped by China and chunks of the Global South.

Zelenskiy says his summit initiative is the only viable peace format and this month slammed as "destructive" a Chinese-Brazilian proposal that calls for "de-escalating the situation" and the resumption of direct dialogue without requiring Russia to pull back.

Ukraine faces its toughest winter of the 2-1/2 year war yet after Russian strikes damaged a huge chunk of energy producing capacity.

The government also faces mounting economic challenges, and plans its first wartime tax hikes to cover a funding gap of about $12.2 billion for its army this year.

Opinion polls paint a mixed picture.

Some 32% of Ukrainians were open, as of May 2024, to certain territorial concessions to end the war, up from 10% in May 2022, said Anton Hrushetskyi, executive director of Kyiv-based pollster KIIS. But most of them envisioned an arrangement that would postpone the liberation of territory rather than abandon it for good, he added.

The key demand for any peace deal is the need for firm security guarantees such as NATO membership, he said.

"Despite negative trends, Ukrainians are still optimistic enough and believe for a better future - and hope this future will be in the European Union and with finally adequate security guarantees."

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Kremlin comments on Zelensky ‘victory plan’

There is currently too little information about Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky’s so-called ‘victory plan’ for Russia to be able to properly evaluate it, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated on Monday.

Zelensky announced last week that he had concluded work on a proposal that could end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine by the end of this year if the West makes “quick decisions” on boosting its support for Kiev.

The Ukrainian leader is currently in the US, where he plans to present his initiative to President Joe Biden, to members of Congress, and to both 2024 election presidential contenders – Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.

When asked by journalists on Monday about Zelensky’s proposals, Peskov said that the authorities in Moscow “believe that it is impossible to conduct any analysis based on media reports.”

“If some information appears from official sources, of course we will study it,” he said.

At the moment, Russia has a “very reserved”attitude towards the Ukrainian leader’s initiative because “there is a lot of different information, including contradictory information, unreliable information” about it, Peskov explained.

According to a report in the Sunday Times, Zelensky’s ‘victory plan’ has four key clauses, such as Western security guarantees for Ukraine similar to NATO’s principle of collective defense, the continuation of Kiev’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk Region to serve as a territorial bargaining chip, deliveries of “specific” advanced weapons by foreign backers, and international financial aid for Ukraine.

Earlier on Monday, Russia’s first deputy permanent representative to the UN, Dmitry Polyansky, said that Moscow has no idea about the contents of Zelensky’s proposals and that it had not been invited to discuss them. “It is hard for us to understand what is on the madman’s mind,” he stressed.

Polyansky acknowledged that there is “a lot of hype” about the Ukrainian leader’s trip to the US and “about what he will or will not offer.”

During the visit, Zelensky is also scheduled to address the UN General Assembly annual meeting, which will take place in New York on Tuesday and Wednesday.

On Sunday, Peskov was asked about the possible outcome of the conflict between Moscow and Kiev, replying that “there is no alternative to our [Russian] victory.”

Reuters/RT