Super User

Super User

In criminal law, he who accuses another of a crime, must prove it. Otherwise, the accused shall remain presumed innocent, until declared not guilty. In a court of law, he who alleges must bear the burden of proof. These are general concept people have used in discussing the allegations against President  Bola Tinubu for certificate forgery. The President’s supporters are quick to say: "Forgery has not yet been proven", and they are right. But how appropriate is that approach?

First, there is a difference between being innocent and being presumed innocent. They normally don’t teach that in law schools. So, even the best lawyers often don’t realize that there is a difference between the two. An accused person is not really innocent. He is only presumed innocent. This is particularly so where the process of indictment is done honestly and fairly. However, where, as in Nigeria, the process of accusing a person formally is corrupt and riddled with all manner of intrigues, to be accused could actually mean many things.

Second, the above concepts only apply in court cases, especially criminal cases. They do not apply in moral parlance or politics. There are certain allegations which, by the circumstances of the accused,  are so damaging that the accused must endeavor to disprove them immediately. Let’s run these scenarios:

A pastor is accused of worshipping in a shrine or in a mosque,

A teacher is accused of raping a minor in his class,

A president of Nigeria is accused of forging his certificate.

In these scenarios, these are very weighty allegations, and the accused has the following options:

1. The accused should just relax and wait for the accuser to prove the allegations,

2. The accused should take steps to disprove the allegations,

3. The accused should  block the accuser from proving the allegations.

Which of these options should you recommend to the accused in any of these scenarios?

As regards the case of Tinubu, because he is the President of Nigeria, presumed to be the greatest country of fraudsters, for him to be accused of certificate forgery is so serious a problem that he should not wait for the accusers to prove their case. He should do everything humanly possible to disprove these allegations. But what did Tinubu try to do? He tried to block the accusers from proving the allegations. He applied to the Court and begged the court to hide his academic record. Even after the court told him that the records should be released, he applied to the Court on appeal and said that releasing the record was so dangerous that it exposed him to the risk of death. That is where we are.

Now, use your head and ask yourself again: Is this the type of case where the accused should just wait for the accuser to prove his allegation or is this a case where the accused must take steps to clear his name?

Please, as you answer this question, forget that Tinubu came from any particular tribe in Nigeria. Assume he does not belong to any particular tribe.

Amal Hassan is the founder and CEO of Outsource Global, a Nigerian contact centre business process outsourcing company. It specialises in delivering BPO solutions, telemarketing, IT services, software development, and customer support services to the international market.

Hassan is a technopreneur with diverse interests across different technology verticals. In 2013, she founded Outsource Global which has established its presence with offices in Abuja, Lagos, and Kaduna.

During a panel session on More Jobs through Investing in Human Capital at the World Bank-IMF 2023 Annual Meetings in Marakesh Morocco, Hassan said she started her career with an IT training center in the Northern part of Nigeria, Kano and after training a lot of IT professionals, she realised that she wasn’t changing their lives.

“They come into the centres, they get trained in major IT courses and then go back into the market without a job,” she said.

In her quest to create employment opportunities for Nigerian youths, she did her research and discovered that BPO servicing provides millions of jobs to the Indians. She found out that Americans have been outsourcing their customer services to Indians since 1980, and she thought ‘Why not Nigeria’.

“It took me eight years to start the company, I started it four times and failed but we went live in June 2016 and today we have 1,500 employees and 50 percent are women,” Hassan said.

In order to compete with India in the skills required to serve the international market not just America, the company created its training team.

“Nigeria graduates about a million graduates every year, with different skill sets but they have to be upskilled to be employed. We put in structured training from communication skills, attention to detail, time management, and critical thinking, for them to be enrolled in client-specific training,” she said.

After one year of operations, Hassan realised the reluctance of Nigerian graduates to pursue roles in customer service and sales, after obtaining specialised education.

To address this, she transitioned the company’s business model to a partnership approach. This involved collaborating with experts in various fields such as law, accounting, and software development to design tailored training programs that bridged the gap between academic knowledge and practical skills required by the international market.

This started by taking in lawyers in Nigeria, she said. “We looked at different kinds of training and started with paralegals, and today those lawyers are doing much more than paralegals work.”

“Also, we looked at accounting as a service, and we partnered with someone that designed a project on a program basically to upskill our accountants in Nigeria to be able to serve the international market.”

“We looked at the US as a market and applied the same procedure with software as a development service and got a partner in Silicon Valley that created a program that trains our team based on the needs of companies in Silicon Valley,” she said.

Hassan added, “The same thing we did with the software we did with accounting, we got a partner in Houston and thought how to upskill our people based on your needs, how do we expand your team with us, what is the kind of training that is required for us to do and we structured a training based on the gap that they have.”

On how the training works, she said “We set up on curriculum based on how they are going to be employable, and then we structure the training, test them before finally outsourcing them.”

Her efforts resulted in the establishment of the Outsource Global Academy, which focused on providing comprehensive training in software, AI, and data management. With an emphasis on upskilling and practical applicability, the academy aimed to equip graduates with the necessary expertise to thrive in the global marketplace.

“Right now we’ve over 300 people training and there are only 24 people that haven’t been outsourced yet after passing from our academy,” she said during the panel discussion.

However, after Covid-19, the company realised the big gap regarding administration in hospitals in the US. She said “We created a training, we got a partner who has already a curriculum regarding training people on professional medical services (PMS) and we have now trained 19 people and gradually we are outsourcing them.

Under Hassan’s leadership, Outsource Global expanded its operations across multiple cities in Nigeria and has plans to establish a presence in French and Spanish-speaking countries in Africa.

Hassan’s commitment to empowering women and youth has earned her recognition as a role model and mentor in Nigeria, particularly in the northern regions.

 

Businessday

Federal government, on Monday, proposed N26 trillion for the 2024 budget, which will be submitted to the national assembly before December 31.

Atiku Bagudu, minister of planning and budget, announced the budget proposal at the end of the Federal Executive Council the (FEC) meeting held on Monday, at the presidential villa, Abuja.

Bagudu said the council has approved the 2024-2025 medium-term expenditure framework (MTEF) and fiscal strategy papers (FSP).

He added that the executive is required by the Fiscal Responsibility Act to present to the national assembly ahead of a budget presentation, a document which will provide the medium-term economic outlook for the economy.

He said FEC made assumptions about the reference price for crude oil which is at $73.96 per barrel as well as an exchange rate of N700.

“Now, it was presented on the background of the commendable measures that have been taken since June in order to restore macroeconomic stability particularly the deregulation of petroleum prices, which we maintained that subsidies are gone and indeed the regulation of the foreign exchange market,” the minister said.

“So Council deliberated, as well as the implication of this and all measures promised in the renewed hope agenda consumer credits, mortgages, reversed or dismissed institution as well as funding the newly aligned institutional changes particularly ministries with specific functions that are able to generate growth so that would be better for our country.

“Council members acknowledged the medium-term expenditure framework, and it is agreed that we can go ahead to the next step of consultation and presentation to the National Assembly.”

FEC APPROVES CONTINUATION OF INHERITED ROAD PROJECTS, CONCRETE USAGE

During the briefing of the state house correspondents, Dave Umahi, minister of works and housing, said the Council approved the continuation of inherited road projects by the past administration which include bridges.

He said the council was made aware of a number of abandoned and ongoing projects — dating back 20 years — that don’t have proper funding.

Umahi said FEC was also informed of some new critical roads totalling 12,000 kilometres and 24 bridges.

“You know, FEC approved for the continuation of these inherited projects and the new proposals and directed that Federal Executive Council committee of chief of staff, minister for finance and coordinating minister of economy, minister for works, minister for planning and budget, GCEO/GMD of NNPLC, chairman of IRS and SSA on Tax Reform, to meet and come up with strategies to source for the funds and everything patterning to the funding,” Umahi said,

He said the council was advised to allow some ongoing road projects and new projects, to be redesigned on concrete to mitigate inflation.

“FEC approved that concept that most of the ongoing projects should be designed on concrete pavements depending on the level of completion and if you’re doing asphalt, there are also conditions for that,” Umahi said.

“FEC also approved the coastal road running from Phase 1 which runs from Lagos to Port Harcourt to Calabar. Phase2 runs from Sokoto to Ogoja. It was approved to be done on EBC + F, that is engineering procurement and construction plus financing.”

According to the minister, the council approved eight roads that were started by the past administration for concessions, having undergone necessary processes — and the financial closure should be reached in November.

Umahi said: “There were nine actually but one was pulled out, that is Lagos-Ota-Abeokuta, and that has been given to the Ogun State government based on their request that they should do the road on their own and they will follow the HDMI that is hardware development management initiative.”

“No refunds for that but they will do it and toll it. And new 25 roads were also approved for concessioning, which takes a very long time on the PPP model.

“Lastly, the PPP (Public, Private, Partnership) for Ijora park in Lagos. It was approved that it should be done on PPP. And it was won by Beta Nigeria Ltd, which was actually started by the last administration. So we just have to convey what they did to FEC which we got approval.

“Finally, the consultancy for NNPC and FIRS who oversee the projects funded by them was also approved today.”

The federal government said FEC meetings would only be held on Mondays going forward and the meetings may not be held weekly until there are pressing issues to discuss.

 

The Cable

Nigeria’s cabinet approved plans by the government to seek a $1.5 billion loan from the World Bank, Finance Minister Wale Edun said.

The funding will be concessionary and is expected to be secured by December, Edun told reporters in the capital, Abuja, on Monday. The West African nation will also seek $80 million of financing from the African Development Bank, he said.

Nigeria is seeking funding as it implements a series of economic reforms to accelerate economic growth and support the more than 40% of its 200 million people who live in poverty. Over the past eight years, the nation’s debt has increased almost eight-fold to more than $110 billion, and servicing those obligations consumed 96% of government revenue in 2022.

The reform initiative by President Bola Tinubu “is being rewarded by processing for Nigeria $1.5 billion of immediate financing,” Edun said. “Provided that we do everything on our own side, it will be in before the end of the year.”

The International Monetary Fund has welcomed Nigeria’s reforms, which include unifying the nation’s various exchange rates and removing a costly gasoline subsidy, and said it’s prepared to help the government.

“As every member country of the IMF, Nigeria can seek IMF financing if they see this as helpful to address external imbalances,” the Lagos-based Punch newspaper quoted the fund as saying. “The Nigerian authorities have not approached the IMF with a request for financing.”

 

Bloomberg

Nigeria's annual inflation rose in September to its highest level in about two decades at 26.72%, amid a worsening cost-of-living crisis in Africa's largest economy.

The September inflation rate rose for a ninth straight month from August's 25.8%, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Monday, with millions of Nigerians impoverished due to the impact of President Bola Tinubu's economic policies.

Food inflation, making up the bulk of Nigeria's inflation basket, rose to 30.64% in September from 29.34% in August.

Tinubu has been under pressure to ease economic hardship after scrapping a decades-old petrol subsidy that tripled prices and allowed the naira to depreciate more than 50%, sending prices surging in Africa's top oil producer and most populous nation.

The central bank "has an unenviable inflation task and will need to respond with aggressive monetary tightening," said David Omojomolo, Africa economist at research firm Capital Economics.

"Our expectation is that the inflation picture will continue to worsen. The impact of the removal of fuel subsidies will continue to push up on inflation while the naira’s devaluation will also continue to feed through," he said.

Inflation in Nigeria has risen to double-digits since 2016, eroding incomes and savings, and may prompt the central bank to raise interest rates, which are already at their highest in nearly two decades, at its next meeting. Annual inflation is at its highest now since 2005.

"The rise in food inflation on a year-on-year basis was caused by increases in prices of oil and fat, bread and cereals, potatoes, yam and other tubers, fish, fruit, meat, vegetables and milk, cheese, and eggs," the NBS said.

Economic analysts said naira depreciation, higher food and energy prices and logistical costs were some of the key drivers of Nigeria's inflation.

Last week the central bank, under new Governor Olayemi Cardoso, pledged to intervene in the country's foreign exchange market occasionally to boost liquidity, after ending an eight-year restriction on 43 items, including rice, poultry and cement, from accessing foreign exchange on the official window.

The central bank hiked rates by a smaller-than-expected margin at its last meeting in July, contrary to analysts' forecast.

Some analysts expect a more hawkish stance under Cardoso at the bank's next rate-setting meeting.

Tinubu has defended his policy reforms and vowed not to go backwards despite strong opposition from labour unions who say they have hurt the poor and should be reversed

 

Reuters

With humanitarian aid blocked at Egyptian border, Gaza draws closer to total collapse

Truckloads of aid idled at Egypt’s border with Gaza as residents and humanitarian groups pleaded Monday for water, food and fuel for dying generators, saying the tiny Palestinian territory sealed off by Israel after last week’s rampage by Hamas was near total collapse.

U.S. President Joe Biden planned to travel to Israel on Wednesday to signal White House support for the country and to Jordan to meet with Arab leaders. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced the trip early Tuesday in Tel Aviv during his second visit to Israel in less than a week amid fears that the fighting could expand into a broader regional conflict.

In Gaza, hospitals were on the verge of losing electricity, threatening the lives of thousands of patients, and hundreds of thousands of Palestinians displaced from their homes searched for bread. Israel maintained punishing airstrikes across Gaza as a ground invasion loomed, while Hamas militants kept up a barrage of rocket attacks, and tensions mounted near the Israel-Lebanon border.

More than a week after Israel cut off entry of any supplies, all eyes were on the Rafah crossing, Gaza’s only connection to Egypt. Mediators were trying to reach a cease-fire that would let in aid and let out trapped foreigners. Israeli airstrikes forced the crossing to shut down last week, but it remained unclear Monday which of the regional actors was keeping the crossing closed.

Blinken, who returned to Israel after a six-country tour through Arab nations, said the U.S. and Israel had agreed to develop a plan to enable humanitarian aid to reach civilians in Gaza. There were few details, but the plan would include “the possibility of creating areas to help keep civilians out of harm’s way.”

“We share Israel’s concern that Hamas may seize or destroy aid entering Gaza or otherwise prevent it from reaching the people who need it,” Blinken said.

Israel evacuated towns near its northern border with Lebanon, where the military has exchanged fire repeatedly with the Iranian-backed Hezbollah group.

Speaking to the Israeli Knesset, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned Iran and Hezbollah, “Don’t test us in the north. Don’t make the mistake of the past. Today, the price you will pay will be far heavier,” referring to Israel’s 2006 war with Hezbollah, which operates out of Lebanon.

Soon after he spoke, the Knesset floor was evacuated as rockets headed toward Jerusalem. Sirens in Tel Aviv prompted U.S. and Israeli officials to take shelter in a bunker, officials said.

Iran’s foreign minister, meanwhile, warned that “preemptive action is possible” if Israel moves closer to a ground offensive. Hossein Amirabdollahian’s threat followed a pattern of escalating rhetoric from Iran, which supports Hamas and Hezbollah.

This has become the deadliest of the five Gaza wars for both sides. At least 2,778 people have been killed and 9,700 wounded in Gaza, according to the Health Ministry there. More than 1,400 Israelis have been killed, the vast majority civilians massacred in Hamas’ Oct. 7 assault.

The Israeli military said Monday that at least 199 hostages were taken into Gaza, more than previously estimated. Hamas said it was holding 200 to 250 hostages, including foreigners whom it said it would free when it was feasible.

Also Monday, Hamas’ military wing released a hostage video showing a dazed woman having her arm wrapped with bandages. The woman, who identified herself in the video as Mia Schem, 21, rocked slightly as she spoke, the sound of explosions reverberating in the background. In her statement, Schem said she was taken from Sderot, a small Israeli city near the Gaza border where she had attended a party. Hamas said she had undergone a three-hour operation.

The Israeli military said Schem’s family was told of her abduction last week, and officials dismissed the video as propaganda.

The plight of the hostages has dominated the Israeli media since the attack, with interviews of their relatives playing almost constantly. Israeli officials have vowed to maintain the siege of Gaza until the hostages are released.

The head of Israel’s Shin Bet security service, in charge of monitoring militant groups, took responsibility for failing to avert Hamas’ surprise attack. As agency head, “the responsibility for that is on me,” Ronen Bar said.

“There will be time for investigation — now is a time for war,” he wrote in a letter to Shin Bet workers and their families.

The combination of airstrikes, dwindling supplies and Israel’s mass evacuation order for the north of the Gaza Strip has thrown the tiny territory’s 2.3 million people into upheaval and increasing desperation. More than 1 million have fled their homes, and 60% are now in the approximately 14-kilometer-long (8 mile) area south of the evacuation zone, according to the U.N.

The Israeli military says it is trying to clear civilians for their safety ahead of a major campaign against Hamas in Gaza’s north, where it says the militants have extensive networks of tunnels and rocket launchers. Much of Hamas’ military infrastructure is in residential areas.

Those fleeing northern Gaza still faced airstrikes in the south. Before dawn Monday, a strike in the town of Rafah collapsed a building sheltering three families who had evacuated from Gaza City. At least 12 people were killed and nine others remained buried under rubble, survivors said. The strike reduced the house to a vast crater blanketed with wreckage.

Hospitals are expected to run out of generator fuel in the next 24 hours, meaning life-saving equipment like incubators and ventilators will stop functioning and putting thousands of lives at risk, the U.N. said.

People grew increasingly desperate in their search for food and water. With taps dry, many have resorted to drinking dirty or sewage-filled water, risking the spread of disease.

More than 400,000 displaced people in the south crowded into schools and other facilities of the U.N. agency for Palestinians, UNRWA. But the agency can’t provide them supplies. UNRWA said it has only 1 liter of water a day for each of its staff members trapped in the territory.

“Gaza is running out of water, and Gaza is running out of life,” said UNRWA chief Philippe Lazzarini, calling for a lifting of the siege. “We need this now.”

The few operating bakeries had long snaking lines of people. Ahmad Salah in the city of Deir al-Balah said he waited 10 hours to get a kilo (2 pounds) of bread to feed 20-30 family members.

In northern Gaza, unknown numbers remained, either unwilling or unable to leave.

UNRWA said 170,000 people were sheltering at its schools in the north when the order to leave came. But it couldn’t evacuate them and doesn’t know if they remained. More than 40,000 have crowded in and around Gaza City’s al-Shifa Hospital, hoping it will be safe from bombardment.

Hamas urged people to ignore the evacuation order. The Israeli military on Sunday released photos it said showed a Hamas roadblock preventing traffic from moving south.

Doctors and many hospital staff have refused to evacuate, saying it would mean death for critically ill patients and newborns on ventilators. The aid group Doctors Without Borders said many of its personnel decided to stay to treat wounded. They ran out of painkillers, and staff reported “wounded screaming in pain,” it said.

On the Gaza side of the Rafah crossing, crowds of Palestinians with dual citizenship waited anxiously, sitting on suitcases or crouched on the floor, some comforting crying infants.

“They are supposed to be a developed country, talking about human rights all the time,” Shurouq Alkhazendar, whose two children are American citizens, said of the United States. “You should protect your citizens first, not leave them all alone suffering.”

After increasing cross-border exchanges with Hezbollah in the north, the Israeli military ordered residents to evacuate 28 communities within 2 kilometers (1.2 miles) of the Lebanese border.

“Israel is ready to operate on two fronts, and even more,” said Daniel Hagari, a military spokesman.

Hezbollah released video showing snipers shooting out cameras on several Israeli army posts along the border, apparently to prevent Israel from monitoring movements on the Lebanese side.

The U.S. government began evacuating some 2,500 American citizens by ship from the Israeli port city of Haifa to Cyprus. Commercial airlines have largely stopped flying into Israel’s Ben-Gurion International Airport.

 

AP

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Russian air defenses down two Ukrainian MiG-29 fighters, Su-25 attack plane in past day

Russian air defense forces shot down two Ukrainian MiG-29 fighters and a Su-25 attack aircraft over the past day in the special military operation in Ukraine, Russia’s Defense Ministry reported on Monday.

"Air defense capabilities shot down two Ukrainian Air Force MiG-29 fighters and a Su-25 attack plane in areas near Arkhangelskoye in the Kherson Region, Dmitrovka and Zvonetskoye in the Dnepropetrovsk Region," the ministry said in a statement.

Russian forces repel 10 Ukrainian attacks in Kupyansk area over past day

Russian forces repelled ten Ukrainian army attacks in the Kupyansk area over the past day, the ministry reported.

"In the Kupyansk direction, units of the western battlegroup supported by aircraft, artillery and heavy flamethrower fires repelled in their active operations ten attacks by assault groups of the Ukrainian army’s 68th jaeger, 32nd, 44th and 115th mechanized brigades in areas near the settlements of Sinkovka, Ivanovka and Novoyegorovka in the Kharkov Region and Makeyevka in the Lugansk People’s Republic," the ministry said.

Russian forces also struck manpower and military hardware of the Ukrainian army’s 112th territorial defense brigade, 14th mechanized and 95th air assault brigades in areas near the settlements of Petropavlovka, Kupyansk and Petrovskoye, the ministry said.

"The enemy lost as many as 85 Ukrainian personnel, two tanks, two armored combat vehicles, a D-20 artillery gun and two 2S1 Gvozdika motorized artillery systems," the ministry specified.

 

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Russia aims to pierce Ukraine defences in northeast, general says

Russia is aiming to break through Ukrainian defences in the northeastern Kupiansk-Lyman area after a sharp increase in fighting, the commander of Ukraine's ground forces said on Monday.

Footage released by Ukraine's ground forces showed their commander, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, meeting troops at an undisclosed location in a wooded area. It quoted him as saying fighting in Kupiansk-Lyman had "significantly escalated".

"The enemy is preparing, seriously preparing for offensive actions, bringing in staff," Syrskyi said in the footage posted on the Telegram messaging app. "The main goal is to break through our troops' defences and recapture our territory."

Retaking the towns of Kupiansk and Lyman last year near Ukraine's second-largest city of Kharkiv was a key step in the Ukrainian military's drive to evicting Russian troops from some parts of the country's Donbas industrial heartland.

Russia's Defence Ministry acknowledged intense military activity in the area, saying its troops had repelled 10 Ukrainian attacks in the Kupiansk area and two more in adjacent Lyman.

A spokesperson for Ukraine's eastern forces said Russian forces in the Kupiansk area were encountering stiff resistance from well-entrenched troops and had been forced to retreat.

"Our fortifications there are quite reliable. We have a powerful, dug-in position," Ilia Yevlash told Ukrainian television. "So the enemy got it right in the teeth and retreated in order to regroup."

Ukraine launched a counter-offensive in June focusing on retaking ground in the east, mainly around Bakhmut, which was seized by Russian forces in May, and on pushing south to the Sea of Azov.

The Ukrainian military has registered mainly incremental gains, but has dismissed some Western critics who say the offensive is moving too slowly.

LULL IN AVDIIVKA

The focus on the eastern front has shifted in the past week from Bakhmut to Avdiivka, a town further southwest known for its large coking plant.

The top local official in Avdiivka said a lull had taken hold in the city, but predicted a new onslaught soon.

"Shelling has diminished, there was less today," Vitaliy Barabash, head of Avdiivka's military administration, told national television, while noting two people were killed in a nearby village.

"We expect there will be new waves of heavy attacks in the days to come."

The town, like Bakhmut, is largely destroyed. Strategically important, Avdiivka is located about 20 km (12 miles) west of Donetsk, the region's main city, held by Russian forces since 2014.

Ukraine's general staff, in its evening report, reported heavy fighting in other areas, saying its forces had beaten back 16 attacks near the long-contested town of Maryinka, also west of Donetsk, and three more near Bakhmut.

 

Whichever angle one looks at it, there is no way Nigeria can escape a crisis from the ongoing certificate conundrum involving President Bola Tinubu. From what has come to light so far, which has been the subject of discussions in the public sphere, our president, Tinubu, has a past strewn with all kinds of unedifying deeds at different times and at different locations which collectively cast unflattering light at him. These deeds appear so tardy and questionable leading one to wonder how our president with his loud claim to brilliance and intelligence would allow himself to get caught in these serial, unintelligent acts. 

Going through Tinubu’s records now in the public domain, one finds several ‘’smoking guns’’ that easily puncture the valiant attempts at deodorising them by his publicists. One can only pity them on the impossible job they are doing, but the facts still remain that from what we have seen and know so far, Tinubu’s credentials just do not add up. 

On a closer look at the whole saga, what should concern us more is not that our president appears to have dodgy credentials, but the fact that due to the position he occupies, extricating Nigeria from this imbroglio will be as difficult as the proverbial camel to go through the eye of the needle. 

Let us look at the various scenarios.  

The immediate one on which there are great expectations both within Nigeria and outside is on what the Supreme Court verdict will be on the case now that new evidence on the president’s past is available with all the evidence now available.    

Most people are inclined to agree that the apex court has its work cut out in this regard. Will the judges reach a verdict, admit and base their judgement on the evidence most recently procured on the president’s credentials or decide otherwise? 

It is a Hobson’s choice really and with the heightened interests in the case both here in Nigeria and abroad whichever way the court decides there are bound to be consequences. One of the consequences is that indeed the Judiciary itself is on trial on this one. 

If the court admits the new documents, then it is almost likely that the weight of the evidence available will tilt the verdict against Tinubu, resulting in his having to resign as president. 

If on the other hand, the court decides to refuse admittance of the evidence and upholds the verdict of the lower court that ruled in favour of the President, a school of thought will emerge that the president was saved by technicality, not by merit of evidence available. But with the damning evidence already in the public space, it will be difficult to shake off the impression that the president was allowed to escape despite the hard, overwhelming evidence against him. 

Under the circumstances, the argument and agitation would shift to the public space and the National Assembly. The social media and some mainstream media platforms will be awash with negative and incendiary comments on the president and there will be calls on the National Assembly to impeach him based on the evidence available.  

The arguments and agitations here will not be based merely on legality but also on the propriety and morality of the president remaining in office with such heavy baggage of serial infractions weighing on him. And the National Assembly will be called frequently to save the country from the further indignity and embarrassment of having a president with such a dodgy past representing Nigeria in the comity of nations.  

In considering whether to impeach the president or not the National Assembly will likely face the dilemma of political, regional and ethnic partisanship as against the need to protect the overriding national interest which some members will vigorously canvass.  Like the Judiciary, the National Assembly will also be on trial. 

So with the president already on trial, the judiciary having to make a crucial judgement on this landmark case and the National Assembly expected to decide whether to do its constitutional duties we will end up having all three arms of government on trial before the Nigerian public. 

The palpable tension all this will engender in the country can be best imagined.  

If against all this Tinubu manages to hang on, he is likely to face enormous multi-dimensional challenges. The simple fact is that even if he escapes the judicial hammer of the Supreme Court, and impeachment from the National Assembly with the dodgy documents about him, it is unlikely he will seek a second term in office. Tinubu’s hold on the party and administration will be weakened as his government will face all kinds of moral and political challenges.  

Seeing that he is a damaged good and mortally wounded politically he will face an internal revolt from within his party the APC. This will certainly set the stage for the realignment of political forces on the back of issues around Tinubu in the coming months. 

Tinubu’s problems will also be exacerbated by the tough socio-economic situation in the country which from all indications is likely to get worse in the coming months. 

On the whole, even with its chequered history of political development, Nigeria faces a very uncertain future with the issues surrounding the Tinubu certificate saga and it is hardly surprising that this has engendered unease among many people.  

‘’I fear the worst’’ says a retired top security officer among the many I spoke to on this subject. ‘’I have been involved in issues of conflict resolution in this country but the much I can say looking at the issue is that only God can see us through in the coming months”. Most people expressed similar views. 

As Nigerians, Muslims and Christians alike, are known to always call for God’s intervention in the affairs of the country in order for things to be made right, this is perhaps the moment that God has finally decided to answer that abiding call.  

As well may that be, what we have to bear in mind is that in making the call for God’s intervention the consequences and lessons as we have seen in other climes may not turn out the way we wish. 

Stay on your grind. Hustle harder. Sleep is for the rich.

You’ve heard those phrases promoting the idea that success, achievement and happiness are all enabled by a hefty bank account. That couldn’t be further from the truth, says Laurie Santos, the psychology professor behind Yale University’s most popular course and host of the podcast “The Happiness Lab.”

“So many of us think, ‘I’m going to put my head down and avoid social connection, whether it’s at work or in my life, and I’m just going to hustle and get stuff done,’” Santos tells CNBC Make It. “That’s just totally wrong.”

Working too hard can increase stress, depression and burnout, a Mayo Clinic blog post notes. It can even have “deleterious effects” on your occupational health — in other words, it’s bad for both your health and your job performance — according to a 2019 meta-analysis published in the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health.

“We have an intuition [that] I’m going to earn a million dollars, and I’ll be happy. Then you hustle, you get there and you’re not happy,” says Santos. “You think, ‘I’ve got to hustle more ... Now I need $5 million to [be happy].’ That hustle culture misconception winds up doubling down on itself.”

You need sleep, rest and connection

Hustle culture has been around for a while. Workaholism has existed for even longer: The term was coined in 1971 by psychologist Wayne E. Oates, meant to characterize how work can become an addiction.

More recently, social media influencers pointed to Silicon Valley tech entrepreneurs as role models: If you optimize every moment of your day for maximum productivity, you can become rich just like them. Some took it a step further — if you don’t sacrifice sleep and relationships for the sake of work, you won’t ever be successful.

Yet people who get more quality sleep have greater life satisfaction than those who don’t, found a 2018 study published in Frontiers in Psychology. The same is true for people who have strong social connections with others, Stanford Medicine reported in 2019.

“You need sleep, you need rest and you need connection with other people” to be happy, Santos says. “Those are the things that are going to matter.”

Taking breaks in the workplace and reaching out more often to your family and friends can also go a long way, says Santos. Research backs her up here, too: “Social fitness” is the No. 1 key to a happy life, Marc Schulz and Robert Waldinger, directors of the Harvard Study of Adult Development, wrote for Make It in February.

“Social fitness requires taking stock of our relationships, and being honest with ourselves about where we’re devoting our time and whether we are tending to the connections that help us thrive,” Schulz and Waldinger wrote.

Hustle culture may already be shifting, according to a recent GoDaddy survey of 1,000 U.S. small-business owners. Fifty-four percent of respondents defined the American Dream as “feeling happy in life,” marking a slide away from the more traditional response of wealth.

“The American Dream is changing, according to small-business owners,” Fara Howard, GoDaddy’s chief marketing officer, told Make It in July. “Economic conditions have resulted in homeownership being less attainable, particularly for members of Gen Z, while the pandemic and the Great Resignation have driven many to prize being their own boss and gaining more freedom, comfort and flexibility.”

 

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At least 21 states of the federation owe retirees N790billion inherited pensions and gratuities.

While Rivers State tops the list of states with a backlog of unpaid pensions and gratuities to the tune of N119 billion, Benue State comes second with N100 billion.

Similarly, the Southwest zone ranks first with a whopping N256 billion, while the Niger Delta is closely following it with N225 billion.

It was also learned that the pensions and gratuities were accumulated by successive governments in the states. Incumbent governments now grapple with liquidating their debts.

Only Kaduna and Kebbi states are up to date in the payment of pensions and gratuities to their retirees.

About 13 states at the time of this report, could not put a figure to the amount they owed their retirees in pensions and gratuities.

Ondo — N56bn

In Ondo, the state government owes over N56 billion in pension and gratuities.
Chairman of the Nigeria Union of Pensioners, NUP, in the state, Johnson Osunyemi, said the unpaid benefits included that of local and state governments.

While local government pensioners have arrears from 2011 till date, arrears of state pensioners run from 2014 till date.

Ekiti —N40bn

Similarly, Ekiti State government owes pensioners about N40 billion in outstanding gratuities and five months of pension arrears.

Chairman of the state’s NUP, Mr. Joel Akinola, said the gratuity arrears are from 2014 till date.

Ogun — N64bn

Also, in Ogun State, the government owes N64 billion.

It was gathered that Governor Dapo Abiodun inherited N68 billion of gratuities for both state and local government retirees but had paid N4 billion, leaving a balance of N64 billion.

Secretary, Nigeria Pensioners Association, Ogun State chapter, Bola Lawal, however, said the present government has paid pension up to date.

Osun — N50bn

In the same vein, the Chairman, Osun State Contributory Pensioners, Gbenga Oyadare, said the state owed members N50 billion in pension as at 2022.

Oyo — N36bn

In Oyo State, NUP’s Secretary, Segun Abatan said: “Government was owing retirees N43 billion as at 2008.”
It was learned that Governor Seyi Makinde had paid N10 billion of the amount, in compliance with a court directive.

“N3 billion was the amount of gratuity owed retired primary school teachers and local government pensioners. He has paid from 2008 to 2014. He still has nine years to pay,” Abatan said.

Lagos — N10bn

In Lagos State, checks revealed that no fewer than 10,000 retired civil servants are yet to receive their pension rights worth over N10 billion.

However, the state government has disbursed N52 billion to pensioners in the state civil service from 2019 till date.

Recall that Babalola Obilana, Director-General, Lagos Pension Commission, LASPEC, had during the 95th Retirement Benefit Bond Certificates Presentation for Retirees in Lagos, said the commission also had about N10 billion to pay as outstanding accumulated debts for pensioners in the state.

Sources informed that there are an estimated 13,928 pensioners in the state, saying “this number covers those in the mainstream, local government, State Universal Basic Education Board, teaching service commission and other state parastatals.

“Government plans to clear the backlog of pension from 2022 till date so as to achieve the goal of ‘pay as you go’.

“Under the Defined Benefit Pension, there is a backlog from the middle of 2022 till date. Given the consistency of the payment, it is projected that by December, the backlog will be cleared.”

Rivers — N119 bn

The Rivers State Government is credited to owe pensioners in the country the highest unpaid benefit of over N119 billion, spanning between 2003 and 2023.

Officials were unwilling to speak on the debt but the chairman of the state NUP, Collins Iheanyi-Nwankwo, corroborated the report

C’River —N24 bn

Findings indicate that Cross River State owes pensioners N24 billion in gratuities.

Former Governor Liyel Imoke paid until 2012, and his successor, Ben Ayade, also paid until 2014.

The current governor, Bassey Otu, has indicated preparedness to offset the amount before the end of 2023, less than three months away.

Bayelsa — N28bn

Investigation revealed that while Bayelsa State owes over N28 billion in gratuities to retirees dating back to 2007, it is up to date in pension payments.

However, checks at the Pensions Board, Yenagoa, revealed that gratuity payment by the current administration from February 2020 to September 2023 was N14, 253,258,899.22

Akwa Ibom

There was no data on the accumulated arrears in gratuities in Akwa Ibom State, as nobody wanted to speak on it from the state government or among union leaders.

But it was gathered that the state is up to date in pensions’ payment.

State chairman of Nigeria Labour Congress, NLC, Sunny James, said: “Gratuity is still outstanding from August 2016 and they (government) are paying gradually now.

‘’Within the current administration, in the first one month, they released N1 billion for teachers, N600million for state workers.

“Last month, they released another N2 billion. This time around, the spread is NI billion to state workers, N500million to teachers and N500million to local government retirees.

A teacher in a public primary school and one of the union leaders, claimed: “Akwa Ibom State government has paid gratuities to retired teachers up to 2014 and 2018 for retired workers.”

Delta — N54bn

For Delta State, checks revealed that it owed over N54 billion pension/gratuities to retirees.

Not long ago, the state government facilitated and guaranteed a N40 billion loan on behalf of the Association of Local Government of Nigeria, ALGON, for the payment of accrued benefits of retired local government workers, primary school teachers, and staff of the Local Education Authorities.

The government runs a contributory pension scheme it entered into in 2007.

Recall, that the immediate past governor of the state, Ifeanyi Okowa, November, last year, released N5 billion for payment of pension arrears to retirees.

Benue —N100bn

In Benue, the state government is said to owe pensioners over N100 billion backlog of unpaid pensions and gratuity.

The state chairman of the Nigeria Union of Pensioners, Michael Vember, who made this known in Makurdi, said “the government owes local government pensioners 96 months arrears, while the state pensioners are being owed 36 months arrears.

“In all, we are being owed over N100 billion in pension and gratuity at both the state and local government levels.”

The chairman explained that the backlog was accumulated by successive governments in the state.

Plateau — N21 bn

Plateau State is up to date in the payment of pensions, but owes over N21 billion in gratuities and death benefits.

The State Commissioner for Information and Communication, Musa Ashoms, said: “The gratuities are owed to the tune of N21billion, we met four months’ salary arrears which totaled N11 billion but we are doing well in reducing the burden.

‘’As we speak, almost all workers have received the September salary. Only a few of them are left and we are working at clearing that.”

Head of the pensioners in the state, Ben Bello, confirmed that the pensioners’ had been paid their pensions up to date.

“Since 2009, gratuities and death benefits are being owed to the tune of N21 billion. That is for the state retirees but the local government retirees are owed as far back as 2003/2004 and this stands at about N31billion.

‘’We have collected our pensions up to September 2023 but we also want the other aspects of the payments to be looked into too,” he said.

Bauchi — N23 bn

Despite settling over N4 billion without accumulating new ones, Bauchi State still has about N23 billion outstanding pension and gratuityn to pay. They were inherited from previous administrations since 2011.

Nasarawa — N50bn

Also in Nasarawa State, both state and local government retirees are owed over N50billion of unpaid benefits. No official of government was ready to speak on the issue as efforts to get their reactions proved abortive.

Yobe — N2bn

In the same vein, Yobe State government has about N2 billion outstanding payments of gratuities to pay.

Chairman of NLC in the state, Muktar Tarbutu, said: “Government of Governor Mai Mala Buni has continued to release N100 million monthly to offset outstanding payment of gratuities in the state.

Kwara

In Kwara State, while the government is said to be up to date in pension payments, nobody could give a figure to the amount the government owed in gratuity to pensioners due to a lack of updated data.

But findings revealed that gratuity was last paid in May 2011.

Kaduna not owing

Kaduna State Government, it was gathered, is up to date in pension and gratuity payment

Katsina — N10 bn

In Katsina State, pensioners have been paid up to date, it was gathered that it owes not less than N10 billion as at May this year.

Kebbi not owing

Kebbi State is one of the two states that are up to date in pension and gratuity payments.

Despite inheriting backlog of unpaid pensions and gratuities, Atiku Bagudu would go down in the history of Kebbi State as the only governor who never owed salaries, pensions and gratuities.

Adamawa — N4bn

In Adamawa State, pensioners are owed about N4 billion in gratuity and pensions.

Officials of government claimed the backlog of the indebtedness cam from successive governments since 2012.

Taraba mum

In Taraba State, nobody was ready to speak on the unpaid entitlements of the pensioners, but a source disclosed that “the backlog of gratuities for retirees in the state dates back to 2015 and inability to capture over 1000 retirees into the monthly pension is also another challenge.”

Niger N16bn

Also in Niger State, no government official or union leader was willing to speak on the pensions and gratuities issues in the state.

However, as of May this year, the backlog of unpaid gratuities was about a billion Naira.
But last year, the state chairman of Nigeria Labour Congress, who is now the deputy governor, Yakubu Garba, declared at the Nigeria Union of Teachers state executive meeting that the state government was owing pensioners in the state a whopping N50 billion and vowed to fight through “constitutional means” for the payment to be effected.

No figure for Borno

Similarly, there was nobody to comment on the pensions and gratuities issues in Borno State.

But it is on record that due to the backlog of billions of naira gratuity owed pensioners in the state, the state governor recently announced a 100 per cent increase in monthly releases for payment of the backlog.

The payment was increased from N100 million monthly (N1.2 billion annually) to N200 million monthly which will amount to N2.4 billion.

The gratuities are lump sums paid to workers who retired from service, even as they become entitled to monthly pensions.

The government has released about N20 billion to drastically reduce the backlog.

Abia keeps mum

Abia pensioners are owed 48 months of arrears and 30 months of gratuity arrears.

Coordinator, Abia Pensioners, Emeka Okezie, who confirmed this in Umuahia, however, said the present administration of Governor Alex Otti has been paying monthly pensions since it came on board.

According to him, pensioners in the state are receiving half payment, pending the conclusion of the ongoing verification when the government said it would pay in full.

Anambra N10bn

In Anambra, the state owes N10 billion in outstanding pensions and gratuity arrears.
At the time Governor Chukwuma Soludo assumed office, the state owed about N14 billion in pensions and gratuity to its pensioners, including the local governments.

However, the new administration has been liquidating the inherited pension and gratuity.

Chairman of the state chapter of the NUP, Anthony Ugozor, said Soludo has been consistent in paying the pensioners their monthly pensions.

Apart from the amount owed before Soludo assumed office, additional pension and gratuity arrears have been accumulated.

It was, however, gathered that more than N10 billion is still outstanding. For instance, those on the queue for payment are workers who retired in 2018, while those who retired from 2022 when he became governor, have all been paid.

Enugu N30bn

In Enugu State, the figures are unclear but as at August, gratuity alone was N30 billion.

Chairman of the Trade Union Congress of Nigeria, TUC, Ben Asogwa, said: “If you are quoting figures, the figures keep varying in the sense that people keep retiring almost on a daily basis and when they retire, it means the figures will keep changing.

‘’So, even as we talk, we are working on a strategy to be able to arrive at an exact figure as at today.

“Some people may tell you it is up to N30 billion, but why I will not be specific on it is that when we talk about pension and gratuity, the one of state is different from that of the local government.

‘’We should be specific, so I would not want to start quoting figures that would not be correct. I am aware that even if the Accountant General should quote figures, he would be quoting estimated figures because we intend to do some level of verification where we’ll be certain that this is what is outstanding.

“As regards monthly pension, we have people that retired from core ministries that are up to date in terms of pension but those that retired from parastatals are not yet there, they are left behind.

‘’I don’t think anybody will be very accurate in giving a figures now because we want to check the figures in such a way that we should be able to say maybe for 2011 this is the exact figure so that at the end, we can be sure of the exact amount, but I’m sure its above N30 billion as at August 2023 for gratuity alone.

Ebonyi

Similarly, while no figure has been given as amount Ebonyi State owes in pensions and gratuities payment, the government recently approved payment of arrears of gratuity to retirees from 1996 to 2021, expending over N3.8billion.

Commissioner for Information and State Orientation, Jude Okpor, who stated this in Abakaliki, explained that the present administration was making prompt payments of gratuities and pensions to retirees in the state.

Chairman of NLC, Ebonyi State, Ogugua Egwu, confirmed that about N1.8billion has so far been paid to over 800 retirees in the state.

“I am aware that there are over 1,800 retirees who will be cleared for the exercise,’’ Egwu said.

Imo

In Imo State, there is no certainty of the amount owed, whether in pensions or gratutities.

Chairman of the state NLC, George Ofoegbu, said: “The most accurate person to do the calculations is the secretary of the congress, but he travelled out of the state. He is on leave.

“I will intimate him and request him to release the figures. You know this issue of arrears is neither here nor there because people are scattered. Anyway, let me leave it at that until I reach the secretary and get back to you about the figures.”

The state NUP chairman, Josiah Ugochukwu, said: “Ninety-five per cent of pensioners are receiving hundred per cent of pension. We appeal to Governor Hope Uzodimma to see that five per cent of pensioners, including the 2019/2020 pensioners, are accorded their due rights of receiving their pensions like their counterparts, as their hues and cries give the union sleepless night.”

 

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