WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Putin accuses Ukraine of a ‘large-scale provocation’ with its raid in southwestern Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday described a Ukrainian incursion into the country’s southwestern Kursk region as a “large-scale provocation” as his officials asserted that they were fighting off cross-border raids for a second day. Ukrainian officials remained silent about the scope of the operation.

Putin met with his top defense and security officials to discuss what he called the “indiscriminate shelling of civilian buildings, residential houses, ambulances with different types of weapons.” He instructed the Cabinet to coordinate assistance to the Kursk region. The fighting is about 500 kilometers (320 miles) from Moscow.

Army chief of staff Valery Gerasimov told Putin at the meeting via video link that about 100 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed in the battle and more than 200 wounded, Russian news agencies reported.

The Ukrainian shelling, meanwhile, killed at least two people — a paramedic and an ambulance driver — and injured 24, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said in a statement.

It was not possible to independently verify the Russian claims. Disinformation and propaganda have played a central role in the war, now in its third year. John Kirby, the White House’s national security spokesman, declined to comment on the operation and said the Biden administration has reached out to the Ukrainians to better understand what happened.

The head of the region urged residents to donate blood due to the intense fighting. “In the last 24 hours, our region has been heroically resisting attacks” by Ukrainian fighters, acting Gov. Alexei Smirnov said on Telegram, adding that all emergency services were on high alert.

Smirnov said authorities had evacuated more than 200 people from areas under shelling, while several thousand others left in their own vehicles.

If confirmed, the cross-border foray would be among Ukraine’s largest since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, and unprecedented for its deployment of Ukrainian military units.

Kyiv’s aim could be to draw Russian reserves to the area, potentially weakening Moscow’s offensive operations in several parts of Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region where Russian forces have increased attacks and are advancing gradually toward operationally significant gains.

But it could risk stretching outmanned Ukrainian troops further along the front line, which is more than 1,000 kilometers (620 miles) long.

Even if Russia were to commit reserves to stabilize the new front, given its vast manpower and the relatively small number of Ukrainian forces engaged in the operation, it would likely have little long-term impact.

However, the operation could boost Ukrainian morale at a time when Kyiv’s forces are facing relentless Russian attacks and are expected to face more in coming weeks.

Several Ukrainian brigades stationed along the border region said they could not comment. Ukraine’s Defense Ministry and General Staff said they would not comment.

Russian forces have swiftly repelled previous cross-border incursions, but not before they caused damage and embarrassed authorities.

The Russian Defense Ministry said Tuesday that up to 300 Ukrainian troops, supported by 11 tanks and more than 20 armored combat vehicles, had crossed into Russia and suffered heavy losses.

It said Wednesday that military and border guard troops “continued to destroy Ukrainian military units in the areas alongside the border in the Kursk region.”

The ministry said Russian forces backed by artillery and warplanes “didn’t allow the enemy to advance deeper into the territory of the Russian Federation.”

Open-source monitors have also not been able to verify the claims. The U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War could not verify whether damaged and abandoned armored vehicles shown in geolocated video 7 kilometers (4 miles) north of the border west of Lyubimovka in the Kursk region were Ukrainian.

The think tank also cast doubt on video shared by Russian military bloggers claiming to show the aftermath of the Ukrainian raids. Most of the damage shown “appears to be the result of routine Ukrainian shelling and does not indicate that there was ground activity in the area,” it said in its daily report.

Responsibility for previous incursions into Russia’s Belgorod and Bryansk regions has been claimed by two murky groups: the Russian Volunteer Corps and the Freedom of Russia Legion, which are made up of Russian citizens and have fought alongside Ukrainian forces.

Some Russian war bloggers who have proved knowledgeable about the war said that Ukrainian soldiers were in Kursk.

Rybar, a Telegram channel run by Mikhail Zvinchuk, a retired Russian Defense Ministry press officer, said Ukrainian troops had seized three settlements in the region and continued to fight their way deeper in. It also said that Ukrainian forces captured the Sudzha gas transit station, about 8 kilometers (5 miles) from the border. Russian officials have not confirmed the gains.

Another pro-Kremlin military blog, Two Majors, claimed that Ukrainian troops had advanced up to 15 kilometers (9 miles) into the region.

Neither claim could be independently verified.

The Kursk region’s border with Ukraine is 245 kilometers (150 miles) long, making it possible for saboteur groups to launch swift incursions and capture some ground before Russia deploys reinforcements.

 

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Russian military issues update on border fighting

Ukraine has lost around 260 troops and 50 pieces of heavy weaponry over the past 24 hours following its failed attempt to breach Russia’s Kursk Region, the Defense Ministry in Moscow has reported.

The Ukrainian operation was launched early on Tuesday and has resulted in civilian casualties in the border areas of the Russian region, particularly in the town of Sudzha, according to the regional government.

The military update said Kiev’s troops had been unsuccessful in their attempts to advance into Russian territory, with the fighting taking place on the Ukrainian side of the border.

The Ukrainian force was met with airstrikes, as well as rocket and artillery fire, and Russian maneuvers, the statement said. Ukrainian reserves were hit near ten Ukrainian settlements in Sumi Region, the report added.

The ministry listed the types of weapons that were destroyed in the hostilities, including seven tanks, eight armored personnel carriers, multiple infantry fighting vehicles, including two Western-donated Stryker IFVs, as well as two Buk surface-to-air missile launchers.

Earlier in the day, acting Governor Andrey Smirnov reported that his government had helped around 200 people to evacuate from the territories affected by the hostilities. Several thousand civilians fled on their own and were provided necessary support, he added.

Emergency officials have set up shelters for 2,500 people in response to the security crisis, with more than 300 places already occupied by refugees, Smirnov said. Other Russian regions have also offered to host Kursk residents, if necessary. Meanwhile, health authorities in Moscow have sent a team of doctors to beef up the region’s healthcare system and help local medics to deal with the surge of casualties.

 

AP/RT

Since Sunday, when the president finally addressed the country in response to the ongoing #EndBadGovernance protests, analysts and critics have not stopped rewriting his speech. They think he should have proposed more than the usual platitudes he blandly delivered, and I agree. He offered neither reprieve nor concessions, just vaunted some chest-thumping achievements that have had little bearing on the reality of those for whom the initiatives were allegedly designed.

For a man whose managerial prowess was sung to the high heavens, Bola Tinubu serially comes up short in anticipating and responding to national issues with the panache of someone who is interested in his job and invested in seeing tangible outcomes. His lack of charisma makes him come across as a man who will shrug off failures because he has invested no real stake in success anyway.

But beyond trying to resolve what is wrong with his administration, is it possible to get into the president’s mind and ask, “If I were Tinubu, what would I do differently?” Asking us to hypothesise from his angle is not a spurious exercise in fantasy that merely imagines how the world can be reset. It is to seriously ask, if you were Tinubu and you found yourself in power at such a difficult time in the country’s history, what would be the motivation to act any otherwise than what he is presently doing?

Some might want to argue that Tinubu will try hard because he will want to live up to expectations and not be labelled a “failure.” But that would be assuming he cares about your opinion of him. Why would a man who has been called all sorts of unprintable names bother if anyone labels him a “failure”? That will just be one more label, and he will simply absorb it into the list of other unpalatable names he has been called. And no, I would not think he loses any sleep over how his legacy will be shaped either. If you are a leader in a society that does not demand accountability, and people have a low bar for promotion to power, why struggle to build any long-lasting legacy?

Besides, Tinubu has always maintained a payroll of spinners. They will outdo themselves in the bid to write books that will say he succeeded. The whole #EndBadGovernance protests and his lacklustre response to it just become a chapter in the silly little books they will write about his time in power.

Even Muhammadu Buhari’s aide wrote a book that included 80 pages of his supposed achievements in office. Everyone agrees that Buhari was a disaster; who needs a book to convince them otherwise? Definitely not the victims of his failed administration nor even the politicians still hanging around Buhari hoping for endorsement (and who do not typically read anyway). Such writings are for Buhari to convince him he was what he was not. Tinubu’s legacy will be similarly written. History will grovel before him because he will pay the hagiographers handsomely.

Tinubu cannot also be pushed to pursue a transformation agenda any more keenly because of the threat of not winning a second term. The man has been a part of the machinations of political power long enough to understand that no Nigerian leader is elected solely because of performance, and none loses election simply because they fail to perform. There is no transformational ethos in this administration’s essence. The best it will achieve is to keep house through basic management of national affairs. Like Buhari who assumed that the sheer force of his personality would be enough to right everything wrong with this country only to discover that reality outweighs his ideological vacuity, this one too will not stretch itself. Those who think he will disturb himself because he could be ambushed during his pursuit of a second term are mistaken.

If a leader spent the weeks building up to the protests meeting this and that person to see if they could pull their weight to dissuade the protesters but never came up with either an active plan that can salvage the nation or even a concession to the protesters, then best believe that you have seen all there is to be seen about him. There is no other card up their sleeve. Let us not forget that he has been close enough to government to know all the problems of Nigeria and he won the election early enough for him to get started on them as soon as possible. Yet, he started poorly. On the first day, he announced the fuel subsidy removal policy, not because he had laid out a coherent framework to ensure the feasibility of the policy, but because some spirits possessed him.

Saturday will culminate the activities of the past 10 days, and we will need to figure out what comes next. I would have been optimistic about the potential of the protests to generate coalitions that would have been useful to push the government towards specific reforms, but the manner the hunger plaguing the people (and which drove them to the streets in the first place) has been ethnicised is despairing. In the South-East and the South-South, you have people who did not join the protests to avoid accusations of a sectional agenda (we have enough history on our side to know how that usually pans out).

On the other hand, northerners who do not typically protest hit the streets and beckon to anti-democratic agents for rescue. I expected Bayo Onanuga to bark at them like he did Obidients, but even a rabid dog knows its master. Meanwhile, the South-West is divided along multiple agenda that make whatever point they might want to register with the protests incoherent.

While there have been too many casualties and needless destruction, I still cannot in good conscience blame those who embarked on the protests. Leaders took too much for granted, pushing out one enervating policy after another without considering that people have limits. What else were they expected to do? To continue gorging on the fluff promises of “e go better” the administration was pushing out through its spin doctors?

By holding on to his ground despite the upsets, Tinubu has shown the shape of things to come. He will mostly not budge; he has little reason to do so. So, where do we go from here? For the protesters on the streets campaigning to #EndBadGovernance, what happens on August 11 when they wind up? People cannot protest perpetually; it will cease at some point. What practical steps of political and community organising should accompany the protests?

For us not to merely suffer, it is up to each one of us to make our plans for survival. Anyone who reads this column knows that I am not particularly a fan of turning issues best resolved through policies into a matter of individual responsibility, but that is what Nigeria almost always boils down to. We have been asked to figure out our own infrastructure of education, transport, health, public facilities, water, energy, and even security. Now we must plan how to survive this government.

There is enough about Nigeria, precedents to Nigerian politics, and even Tinubu’s character to determine that he does not have—and unlikely to stimulate—enough motivation to act differently. He will, of course, try to enact policies. If they work, they work. If they do not, they do not. He will not get off his high horse and sacrifice himself to make his policies effectual. He is an old man; he cannot come and die. Not even when he has achieved his ultimate ambition, and simply wants to enjoy the power for which he sold his soul. Why should he now start bothering himself on Nigerians’ behalf?

 

Punch

As we focus on continuing to elevate entrepreneurs from all parts of the world and from all backgrounds, I’m reflecting a lot on how nontraditional entrepreneurs can realize their dreams. Sometimes that means unlearninglessons we were taught in school.   

On the day you graduate and enter the professional world, there is no instruction manual waiting for you. (If only!) There is so much I wish I’d known at the start of my own career, and I wish I could spare young entrepreneurs that same learningcurve. Below are a few key lessons about entrepreneurship that aren’t taught in school.

1. Your wins will not always be linear

As students, we’re told that if we study hard enough, we’ll ace the test, and that if we turn in all of our assignments, we’ll get full credit. In school, you tend to get out what you put in, often in a very predictable and measurable way. You know that xamount of preparation will probably get you y grade on the exam.

In entrepreneurship, that’s often not the case. You can work incredibly hard and still not see results, and vice versa. Some opportunities can fall in your lap and can feel like a “right place, right time” situation. Other opportunities can completely evade you no matter how hard you reach for them.

When I first started To the Market, I was working 12-14 hour days, doing everything within my control to have as many sales and eyeballs on the businessas possible. But that didn’t always get me the results I wanted. It was hard to process that I was competing in a much broader landscape with variables like competitors having more funding, or competitors being better networked. My work ethic wasn't enough.

I ultimately realized that when entrepreneurs create formulas for success, we’re not the only variable. Some of the variables that factor into our final result are within our control, but many are not. The effort put in does always lead to a commensurate result. I needed to broaden my formula and make space for a lot of other variables to go into the equation.

2. Rejection is going to be part of your regular routine

If you are a driven student and are used to getting a consistently positive outcome from your efforts in school, rejection is hard to accept at first. But the vast majority of people you try to sell to, be it consumers, buyers or investors, are going to say no. That’s the nature of entrepreneurship. Rejection is normal and consistent.

The first time my company pitched a wholesale account, it was to a big retailer that I really admired. I felt really good about our pitch. I felt that our products and prices were compelling. But after the pitch, I didn’t hear back…and didn’t hear back…and didn’t hear back. Still, I had hope. And then finally, I got a no.

At the time, I remember feeling like I’d been punched in the gut. But that’s because I hadn’t built up enough scar tissue around rejection yet. The longer you’re in business, the easier it gets. Rejection becomes a normal part of the growth process.

3. Not everyone will like you — and that’s okay

No matter who you are, what you do, and how you treat people, there are going to be people who just don’t like you. That’s hard at first, because when I started out in the working world, I thought, If I’m nice to everybody, everybody will be nice to me. That’s unfortunately not always the case.

That doesn’t mean I would suggest changing your attitude toward people or turning away from kindness. But you also have to accept that regardless of how virtuous, warm or easygoing you might aspire to be, there will be people who simply do not like you. And that’s okay!

Not only is this a reality, but it's also one that’s perfectly acceptable. There is no one on this planet that everybody likes. And the more success that you might enjoy — meaning a larger organization or more exposure across the business community — the number of people who don’t like you could grow, simply because the number of people who know about you increases. 

4. Managing people is just as important as managing your work

When I first started my career, I didn’t understand what managing people meant.  In school, we’re taught to focus on our own workflows. So much of our training as young people is around becoming excellent in subject matters rather than becoming excellent at delegation, team cohesion and team management.

But as I got older, I came to learn that managing people is equally, if not more important, than your work portfolio. This doesn’t just mean your direct reports: It’s also professional interpersonal relationships and managing in a way that maximizes value creation among all parties.

This is especially true for entrepreneurs. When you build an organization, you become a leader of leaders. Your job is to enable the entire organization to flourish, and your first line of defense is the leaders who report to you.

When To the Market reached the stage of our journey where we grew to have an executive leadership team, I was so used to managing my own workflows that I had to make a shift. I started allocating far more time to empowering and enabling the other leaders in the company.

Thinking about direct reports used to be a relatively small part of my workday, and now it’s the majority of it. Most of my time goes into working directly with the leaders of the organization and ensuring they’re getting what they need to go out and empower their teams.

5. Be your biggest champion

Growing up, there was an emphasis at home on humility and thinking of others rather than yourself. In school, there was rarely a need to promote myself, as teachers are required to give you feedback. But when I got into the business world, the rules were different. I realized it was critical for me to be my own champion, not only for myself but also for my ideas.

In high school and college, I was used to getting feedback on my work from instructors. As an entrepreneur, there was suddenly zero compulsory feedback. In the professional world, there is no forced review process where your work is being considered. For people to even consider saying yes or no to my business, I had to actively tell them about what I was doing. I had to learn to reach out to people, show up at events and outwardly advance my own goals.

No matter how old you are or how much of your career is ahead of you, the important thing to remember is that it’s okay to have questions. It’s okay to not know how to do everything. The key is to never hesitate to raise your hand, let your work be seen, and be willing to unlearn ideas that are no longer serving you.

 

Entrepreneur

As the #EndBadGovernance protests in Nigeria entered their sixth day, the movement continued to evolve across different parts of the country, with varying levels of intensity and diverse forms of expression. Here's a comprehensive overview of the situation:

1. Rivers State:

- Protesters stormed the Eleme-Onne section of the East-West Road, a crucial route connecting Port Harcourt to key business facilities.

- The demonstration disrupted vehicular movement, highlighting issues of poverty, hunger, and high food costs.

- Protesters demanded job creation, infrastructure development, and revival of local refineries.

- Some demonstrators gathered at former Governor Nyesom Wike's residence in Port Harcourt.

2. Katsina State:

- The protest took a religious turn, with residents organizing large prayer gatherings.

- Interdenominational crowds prayed for divine intervention to address economic hardships, hunger, insecurity, and governance failures.

- Organizers are mobilizing nationwide support for prayer sessions in mosques and churches on August 10th, 2024.

3. Abuja (Federal Capital Territory):

- Protests have significantly dwindled, with only two women holding a sit-out at the Moshood Abiola stadium.

- Government restrictions have limited access to the central business district.

- Protesters criticize the government's response as inadequate, calling for reduced petroleum prices and improved governance.

- Concerns persist about the heavy-handed suppression of protests in Abuja compared to other regions.

4. Lagos:

- Organizers suspended the protest for 24 hours, citing threats from sponsored thugs.

- A congress was held to strategize the next steps, with plans for a rally on Wednesday to honor those killed during the protests.

- Incidents of violence were reported, with thugs attacking journalists covering the protest at Freedom Park, Ojota.

5. General Observations:

- The protests have been marked by clashes with security forces in some areas.

- Demonstrators express dissatisfaction with President Tinubu's speech, claiming it failed to address their demands.

- There are reports of fatalities, particularly in the northern parts of the country.

- The movement appears to be losing momentum in some areas while gaining traction in others.

- Protesters are adapting their strategies, incorporating prayer sessions and planning commemorative events.

6. Government Response:

- Authorities have imposed restrictions on protest locations in some areas, particularly in Abuja.

- Security forces have been deployed to maintain order, sometimes resulting in confrontations with protesters.

- The government's approach has been criticized as inadequate by protest organizers.

As the situation remains fluid, the #EndBadGovernance movement continues to highlight issues of economic hardship, poor governance, and systemic failures across Nigeria.

The night before long-time leader Sheikh Hasina abruptly fled Bangladesh amid deadly protests, her army chief held a meeting with his generals and decided that troops would not open fire on civilians to enforce a curfew, two serving army officers with knowledge of the discussions told Reuters.

Gen. Waker-Uz-Zaman then reached out to Hasina's office, conveying to the prime minister that his soldiers would be unable to implement the lockdown she had called for, according to an Indian official briefed on the matter.

The message was clear, the official said: Hasina no longer had the army's support.

Details of the online meeting between military top brass and the message to Hasina that she had lost their backing have not previously been reported.

They help to explain how Hasina's 15-year rule, during which she brooked little dissent, came to such a chaotic and sudden end on Monday, when she fled from Bangladesh to India.

The nationwide curfew had been imposed after at least 91 people were killed and hundreds injured in nationwide clashes on Sunday, the deadliest day since student-led protests against Hasina began in July.

Army spokesman Lt. Col. Sami Ud Dowla Chowdhury confirmed the Sunday evening discussions, which he described as a regular meeting to take updates after any disturbance. He did not provide details when presented with additional questions about decision-making at that meeting.

Hasina could not be reached and her son and advisor, Sajeeb Wazed, did not respond to repeated requests for comment.

Reuters spoke to ten people familiar with the events of the past week, including four serving army officers and two other informed sources in Bangladesh, to piece together the final 48 hours of Hasina's reign. Many of them spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.

Hasina, who has ruled Bangladesh for 20 of the last 30 years, was elected to a fourth term leading the country of 170 million in January, after arresting thousands of opposition leaders and workers. That election was boycotted by her main rivals.

Her iron-fisted grasp on power has been challenged since summer by protests triggered by a court ruling to reserve government jobs - heavily coveted amid high youth unemployment - for certain segments of the population. The decision was overturned but the demonstrations had quickly morphed into a movement to oust Hasina.

Zaman has not publicly explained his decision to withdraw support from Hasina. But the scale of the protests and a death toll of at least 241 made supporting Hasina at all costs untenable, three former senior Bangladesh army officers told Reuters.

"There was a lot of uneasiness within the troops," said retired Brig. Gen. M. Sakhawat Hossain. "That is what probably (put) pressure on the chief of army staff, because the troops are out and they are seeing what is happening."

Zaman, who is related to Hasina by marriage, had showed signs of wavering in his support for the prime minister on Saturday, when he sat on an ornate wooden chair and addressed hundreds of uniformed officers in a town hall meeting. The military later made some details of that discussion public.

The general declared that lives had to be protected and called on his officers to show patience, said army spokesman Chowdhury.

It was the first indication that Bangladesh's army would not forcefully suppress the violent demonstrations, leaving Hasina vulnerable.

Retired senior soldiers such as Brig. Gen. Mohammad Shahedul Anam Khan were among those who defied the curfew on Monday and took to the streets.

"We were not stopped by the army," said Khan, a former infantry soldier. "The army has done what he had promised the army would do."

'SHORT NOTICE'

On Monday, the first full day of the indefinite nationwide curfew, Hasina was holed up inside the Ganabhaban, or "People's Palace", a heavily-guarded complex in the capital Dhaka that serves as her official residence.

Outside, on the streets of the sprawling city, crowds gathered. Tens of thousands of people had answered protest leaders' call for a march to oust the leader, streaming into the heart of the city.

With the situation spiralling out of her control, the 76-year-old leader decided to flee the country on Monday morning, according to the Indian official and two Bangladesh nationals familiar with the matter.

Hasina and her sister, who lives in London but was in Dhaka at the time, discussed the matter and flew out together, according to a Bangladesh source. They left for India around lunch, local time.

Indian foreign minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar told parliament on Tuesday that New Delhi had urged "various political forces with whom we were in touch" to resolve the situation via dialogue throughout July.

But as crowds gathered in Dhaka on Monday ignoring the curfew, Hasina decided to resign "after a meeting with leaders of the security establishment", he added. "At very short notice, she requested approval to come for the moment to India."

A second Indian official said it was "diplomatically" conveyed to Hasina that her stay had to be temporary for fear of negatively impacting Delhi's ties with the next government in Dhaka. India's Ministry of External Affairs did not immediately return a request for comment.

Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, whom the protesting students want to lead the interim government after Hasina's ouster, told The New Indian Express newspaper that India had "good ties with the wrong people... Please revisit your foreign policy."

Yunus wasn't immediately available for an interview.

Late in the afternoon on Monday, a Bangladesh Air Force C130 transport aircraft landed at Hindon air base outside Delhi, with Hasina on board.

There, she was met by Ajit Doval, India's powerful national security advisor, according to the Indian security official.

Delhi had fought to carve Bangladesh out of East Pakistan in 1971. After Hasina's father was assassinated in 1975, Hasina took refuge in India for years and built deep links with her neighbour's political elite.

Returning to Bangladesh, she gained power in 1996, and was seen as more sensitive to India's security concerns than her political rivals. The Hindu-majority nation also regarded her secular stance as favourable for the 13 million Hindus in Bangladesh.

But back in Bangladesh, resentment still lingered even among retired soldiers that Hasina had been allowed to leave.

"Personally, I feel that she should not have been given a safe passage," said Khan, the veteran. "That was a folly."

 

Reuters

Nigeria's oil output has risen to between 1.6 million and 1.7 million barrels per day after the government beefed up security to curb crude theft, Chief of Naval Staff Emmanuel Ikechukwu Ogalla said on Tuesday.

Crude production in Nigeria, a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), stood at 1.2 million barrels per day in February, Ogalla said. Oil major Shell has exited the country.

"We have stepped up surveillance and enforcement in the oil producing areas," the naval chief said.

"Right now, as we speak, the Nigerian Navy has 12 vessels on the sea to protect oil production and stem oil theft. We have arrested over 16 vessels, so far."

Ogalla said the force has blocked channels for the sale of illegally refined petroleum products.

The country's oil minister Heineken Lokpobiri said in May that Nigeria could produce 6 million barrels of oil per day with adequate investment in its energy sector.

He added that Nigeria and other African oil-producing countries lack the capital to explore and produce their oil and gas.

 

Reuters

The Dangote Group, Africa’s largest conglomerate, is exploring the sale of a 12.5 percent stake in its newly commissioned refinery as it grapples with liquidity concerns, according to the Global rating agency, Fitch Rating.

In 2021, Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) acquired a 7.25 percent stake in the Dangote refinery’s project entity for $1.0 billion, with an option to purchase the remaining 12.75 percent stake by June 2024.

“Since the option has not been exercised, the group plans to divest a 12.75% stake in DORC in 2024,” Fitch Ratings said in its latest note.

Fitch added, “The group intends to service its significant syndicated loan maturing in August 2024 from the equity divestment. However, timely divestment and meeting the imminent maturity is highly uncertain in our view”.

Fitch noted that Dangote has immediate debt servicing requirements related to the syndicated loan raised to finance the construction of the refining company.

“Further delays in meeting the funding requirements would significantly increase the likelihood of financial restructuring or default and lead to further rating downgrade,” Fitch explained.

The company’s oil refinery operated at about 50 percent capacity in the first half of the year, at 325,000-375,000 bpd, Fitch said, while Dangote’s fertiliser business was hindered by inadequate gas supply.

“The EBITDA contribution from the refinery has been far below our previous projection as the facility is ramping up and optimizing production,” Fitch Rating said.

“We expect gradual improvement in EBITDA contribution from DORC going forward following the initiation of gasoline production in Q3 this year,” the rating agency added.

Fitch said Dangote group has senior secured debt raised at subsidiary levels amounting to $2.7 billion at end-2023 representing 49 percent of total group debt.

“The debt structure also includes an on-demand shareholder loans from its ultimate parent Greenview plc, amounting to $2.3 billion representing 43 percent of total debt,” Fitch said.

“We view the shareholder loans as subordinated debt. The company has also raised senior unsecured debt amounting to N350 billion with long-dated maturities in 2029 and 2032 to finance capex requirements,” Fitch added.

Two months ago, Aliko Dangote, the founder of Dangote Group revealed that he has paid off $2.4bn of the $5.5bn loan for his $19bn Lagos-based refinery.

“We borrowed the money based on our own balance sheet. I think we borrowed just over $5.5bn. But we also paid a lot of interest as we went along, because the project was delayed because of a lack of land, also the sand-filling took a long time. Almost five years or so we didn’t do anything.

“We actually started in 2018. We borrowed that much. We have, of course, paid interest and some principal, about $2.4bn. We’ve done very well. We now have only about $2.7bn left to be paid. So we’ve done very well for a project of that magnitude,” he said.

 

Businessday

 

The Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) on Tuesday, extended its previous day losses declining by N371 billion as investors continue to react to the volatility in the global stock market. The benchmark All-Share Index (ASI) dropped by 653.89 basis points or 0.67 per cent, closing at 96,928.52 basis points from its opening value of 97,745.73.

Consequently, market capitalisation fell, ending the day at N55.00 trillion compared to N55.404 trillion at the start while Year-to-Date (Ytd) gain moderated at 30.5 percent. Experts warn that the ongoing volatility and domestic unrest could further affect investor confidence on the local bourse, although the global tension saw some stability at the close of Tuesday’s trading session as some indices showed signs of recovery.

Meanwhile, Tuesday’s negative performance on the NGX were driven by sell-offs in key stocks, including BUA Cement, Fidelity Bank, GTCO, Transcorp and 21 others. Despite the negative trend, trading volume and turnover showed improvement with a total of 449.2 million unit of shares valued at N6.74 billion changing hands in 9,381 deals. Compared with the previous NGX trading day, the data shows a 39 per cent improvement in volume, eight per cent improvement in turnover, but four per cent decline in deals.

The session saw 120 equities participating, with 30 gainers and 25 losers. National Salt Company (NASCON) and Academy Press led the gainers with a 10 per cent share price increase each, closing at N32.45 and N2.20 per share respectively. They were closely followed by a 9.89 percent gain in Oando closing at N30.55 per share.

Skyway Aviation Handling Co. also gained 9.80 per cent closing at N22.40 while RTBRISCOE added 9.78 per cent and ended the day’s trade at N1.01 per share.

Conversely, BUA Cement experienced the most significant decline, with a 9.99 per cent decrease to N128.90 per share, followed by Thomas Wyatt Nigeria losing 8.52 per cent to close at N1.61 per share while Champion Breweries lost 7.97 per cent and closed at N2.77 per share.

United Bank for Africa was the most active stock trading 62.8 million units of shares valued at N1.3 billion while exchanged 36 million shares at N1.1 billion.

 

Sun

Hamas names Oct 7 mastermind Sinwar as leader after Haniyeh assassination

Hamas named its Gaza leader Yahya Sinwar as successor to former political chief Ismail Haniyeh, who was assassinated in Tehran last week, the group said on Tuesday, in a move that reinforces the radical path pursued since the Oct. 7 attack on Israel.

Sinwar, the architect of the most devastating attack on Israel in decades, has been in hiding in Gaza, defying Israeli attempts to kill him since the start of the war.

"The Islamic Resistance Movement Hamas announces the selection of Commander Yahya Sinwar as the head of the political bureau of the movement, succeeding the martyr Commander Ismail Haniyeh, may Allah have mercy on him," the movement said in a brief statement.

News of the appointment was greeted with a salvo of rockets from Gaza from the bands of militants still fighting Israeli troops in the besieged enclave.

Sinwar, who spent half his adult life in Israeli prisons, was the most powerful Hamas leader left alive following the assassination of Haniyeh, which has left the region on the brink of a wider regional conflict after Iran vowed harsh retaliation.

Israel has not claimed responsibility for the assassination but it has said it killed other senior leaders, including Hamas deputy leader Saleh al-Arouri, who was killed in Beirut, and Mohammed Deif, the movement's military commander.

Born in a refugee camp in the southern Gaza city of Khan Younis, Sinwar, 61, was elected as Hamas' leader in Gaza in 2017 after gaining a reputation as a ruthless enforcer and an implacable enemy of Israel.

He was formerly head of the Al-Majd security apparatus which tracked, killed and punished Palestinians accused of collaborating with Israel’s secret service before he was jailed.

 

Reuters

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Zelenskiy says Ukraine deployed more drones than Russia in July

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Tuesday that Ukraine was making good progress in manufacturing and employing drones and had used more of them last month in combat than had Russia.

Speaking in his nightly video address, Zelenskiy thanked all Ukrainian servicemen for their efforts in combat "in particular, all those soldiers and commanders who make good use of our possibilities with drones.

"Our Ukrainian defence forces are already leading the way in this regard, and in July our forces used more drones than did the occupiers," he said.

"This must become a sustainable trend at the front - across all types of drones that are in our units."

He said drones, including long-range versions, "are already affecting the war in strategic terms".

Ukraine is boosting its production capacity with help from its Western partners and the country's manufacturers will exceed over the course of 2024 contractual plans to produce one million drones, the president said.

Zelenskiy and other officials have long stressed the need for increased drone production and Ukrainian forces have increased long-range attacks on targets inside Russia, including oil refineries and other infrastructure.

 

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Russian security chief estimates Ukraine’s military losses this summer

The Ukrainian military has lost more than 115,000 servicemen in the conflict with Moscow over the past two months, Russian Security Council Secretary Sergey Shoigu has claimed.

Some 3,000 units of equipment and more than 3,000 cars operated by Kiev’s troops have also been destroyed since June 14, he told journalists on Tuesday.

During the same period, the Russian military was able to capture 420 square kilometers (162 square miles) of territory from the Ukrainian forces, added Shoigu, who was Russia’s defense minister until a government reshuffle in May.

"All this could have been stopped if the demands set out by our president had been met [by Ukraine]. Therefore, our position is clear – the troops are moving forward,” he said.

In June, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Moscow would immediately open peace talks with Kiev if it withdrew its troops from the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics, and the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, which officially became part of the Russian state in the fall of 2022. According to Putin, Ukraine must also commit to maintaining a neutral status, “demilitarization,” and “denazification” as part of a possible deal.

Vladimir Zelensky instantly rejected the Russian president’s offer, describing it as an “ultimatum” and unacceptable. NATO, which is backing Kiev in the conflict, also described the proposal as “not serious.”

Shoigu stated that “every day of delay in making such a decision [on negotiations] results in the loss of control [by Kiev] over another part of territory that the Ukrainians consider theirs, and, most importantly, the loss of thousands of human lives.”

The Ukrainian people are “paying a high price”for the “illusion” of Zelensky and his associates that “the Europeans will organize another beautiful peace summit for Kiev, at which all their internal problems will resolve themselves,” he added.

"The window of opportunity for Ukraine is narrowing. The choice is up to the Ukrainian people,” the secretary of the Security Council warned.

Zelensky, who previously outright rejected the possibility of peace talks with Moscow, has recently changed his tune of the issue. He wrote on X (formerly Twitter) on Monday that his administration was aiming to work out a basis for a “just end” to the conflict with Russia this year.

However, he again insisted on implementing his so-called ‘peace formula’, which demands that Russia withdraw its troops from all territory claimed by Ukraine. Moscow has previously dismissed this plan as “detached from reality.”

In June, Putin said Ukraine was losing five times more troops than the Russian military, according to Moscow’s estimates.

 

Reuters/RT