WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Russian troops reach centre of Ukrainian bastion Vuhledar

Russian troops have reached the centre of Vuhledar, a bastion on strategic high ground in eastern Ukraine's industrial Donbas region that had resisted Russian assaults since Moscow's full-scale invasion, a regional Ukrainian official said on Tuesday.

Footage posted to social media showed Russian soldiers waving a flag from atop a bombed-out multi-storey building and unfurling another flag on a metal spire on a roof. Reuters determined the footage matched street patterns of Vuhledar.

Other images showed smoke rising over the ruins of the once small mining town, now a deserted and devastated battlefield where Ukrainian units had held off previous armoured Russian assaults through 2-1/2 years of war.

"The enemy is already nearly in the centre of the city," Vadym Filashkin, governor of the Donetsk region that makes up part of the broader Donbas historical area, told Ukrainian TV, describing the situation as very difficult.

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and the Ukrainian military did not comment on Tuesday on the situation in Vuhledar. It was unclear whether Russian forces controlled the whole town.

"Vuhledar... the city we all fought for, the city where soldiers from different units laid down their lives, the city where I met the war with a weapon in hand," Stanislav Buniatov, a Ukrainian military blogger and a volunteer soldier said on the Telegram messaging app.

Combat footage by the popular war blog DeepState showed Russian forces throughout Vuhledar. Ukraine's public broadcaster Suspilne quoted soldiers fighting there as saying they had not received an order to leave.

Kremlin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday that President Vladimir Putin "regularly receives direct information from the military" including on Vuhledar, but there was no official comment from Moscow that the town was taken.

Russian military bloggers, including a group of military analysts who ran the prominent Rybar Telegram channel, touted the capture of the city, which could speed up the advance of Russian forces in Donbas.

Vuhledar has strategic significance because of its high ground and its location near the junction of the two main fronts, in eastern and southern Ukraine. Russian forces reached the outskirts last week and have since intensified their push.

Earlier, Andriy Nazarenko, commander of a drone battalion of the 72nd Mechanized Brigade, said they were outgunned and outmanned in Vuhledar.

"The situation in Vuhledar is very difficult, it is the hardest because assaults have been going on for more than six months and the enemy is constantly rotating its ranks with fresh, trained forces," Nazarenko told Reuters.

Speaking from an undisclosed location during a Zoom interview, Nazarenko said his unit was doing everything possible to maintain "a window" for the infantry to be able to retreat from the town.

RUSSIA'S FAST ADVANCE

Since August, Moscow's troops have advanced at their fastest rate for more than two years in eastern Ukraine, despite Ukrainian forces mounting a surprise incursion into Russia's Kursk region.

Oleksandr Kovalenko, a Ukrainian military analyst, said that about 2,000 to 3,000 Russian troops were in the town, attacking from three different directions.

"We will not be able to hold on in Vuhledar in these conditions," Kovalenko told Reuters, saying the decision to retreat from Vuhledar should be taken quickly.

Full control over Vuhledar would help Moscow's troops to improve their logistics by using railways more actively, easing their further advance in the region and giving them positions on heights from which to fire artillery.

Filashkin, urging people to leave, said that about 350,000 people remained in government-held parts of the region, down from about 1.9 million before the war. Only 107 civilians remained in Vuhledar, which had a pre-war population of about 14,000, he said.

The Donetsk region, where Russian proxy forces launched a revolt in 2014, is one of four Ukrainian provinces that Moscow claimed to have annexed in late 2022. Moscow says capturing the rest of the province is one of its principal war aims.

Ukraine drove back Russian forces from the outskirts of Kyiv and recaptured territory in a counter-offensive in 2022. But another Ukrainian counter-offensive last year was a failure and Russian forces have mostly had the battlefield initiative since.

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Russian troops advance: situation in Kursk Region

Ukraine lost more than 340 servicemen in the Kursk Region over the day, the Russian Defense Ministry said.

In total, the enemy lost more than 19,250 people during the fighting.

Russian troops advanced and consolidated at two sites in the Kursk Region, clearing them of Ukrainian servicemen, Deputy Chief of the Russian Armed Forces’ Main Military-Political Department, Akhmat Special Forces Commander Major General Apty Alaudinov said.

TASS has gathered the key news about the unfolding situation.

Operation to neutralize Ukrainian forces

- The Russian military repelled two enemy counterattacks towards Plekhovo.

- It also repelled two Ukrainian attempts to break through the border towards Novy Put.

- Units of the battlegroup North continued offensive operations and defeated Ukrainian formations near Lyubimovka, Novy Put, Nikolayevo-Daryino and Plekhovo.

- The Russian military hit concentrations of enemy manpower and hardware near Bogdanovka, Guyevo, Daryino, Zeleny Shlyakh, Lyubimovka, Malaya Loknya, Martynovka, Mirny, Novy Put, Orlovka, Plekhovo, Pravda, Russkoe Porechnoye, Tolsty Lug, Cherkasskaya Konopelka, Cherkasskoe Porechnoye and Yuzhny in the Kursk Region.

- Russian jets struck Ukrainian reserves in the Sumy Region.

Ukraine’s losses

- Over the day, the enemy lost more than 340 people, five armored vehicles, including two tanks and three armored fighting vehicles, as well as five artillery pieces and seven vehicles. Two Ukrainian servicemen surrendered.

- Since the beginning of hostilities in Russia’s borderline region, Ukraine’s losses have amounted to more than 19,250 servicemen, 135 tanks, 65 infantry fighting vehicles, 98 armored personnel carriers, 859 armored combat vehicles, 569 vehicles, 155 artillery pieces, 33 multiple rocket launchers, including eight HIMARS and six US-made MLRS, nine anti-aircraft missile launchers, five transport and loading vehicles, 38 radar stations, nine counter-battery radars, three air defense radars, 19 pieces of engineering and other equipment, including 11 engineering demolition vehicles, one UR-77 demining unit, and two armored recovery vehicles.

Alaudinov's statements

- Russian troops advanced and consolidated at two sites in the Kursk Region, clearing them of Ukrainian servicemen, Deputy Chief of the Russian Armed Forces’ Main Military-Political Department, Akhmat Special Forces Commander Major General Apty Alaudinov said.

UN OHCHR report

- Ukraine's attack on the Kursk Region was included in the latest Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights’ report. However, the Office refrained from any assessment of the actions of the Ukrainian authorities and military, thus making just a brief summary of the facts.

Reuters/Tass

This fall is the first in nearly 20 years that I am not returning to the classroom. For most of my career, I taught writing, literature, and language, primarily to university students. I quit, in large part, because of large language models (LLMs) like ChatGPT.

Virtually all experienced scholars know that writing, as historian Lynn Hunthas argued, “is “not the transcription of thoughts already consciously present in [the writer’s] mind.” Rather, writing is a process closely tied to thinking. In graduate school, I spent months trying to fit pieces of my dissertation together in my mind and eventually found I could solve the puzzle only through writing. Writing is hard work. It is sometimes frightening. With the easy temptation of AI, many—possibly most—of my students were no longer willing to push through discomfort.

In my most recent job, I taught academic writing to doctoral students at a technical college. My graduate students, many of whom were computer scientists, understood the mechanisms of generative AI better than I do. They recognized LLMs as unreliable research tools that hallucinate and invent citations. They acknowledged the environmental impact and ethical problemsof the technology. They knew that models are trained on existing data and therefore cannot produce novel research. However, that knowledge did not stop my students from relying heavily on generative AI. Several students admitted to drafting their research in note form and asking ChatGPT to write their articles.

As an experienced teacher, I am familiar with pedagogical best practices. I scaffoldedassignments. I researched ways to incorporate generative AI in my lesson plans, and I designed activities to draw attention to its limitations. I reminded students that ChatGPT may alter the meaning of a text when prompted to revise, that it can yield biased and inaccurate information, that it does not generate stylistically strong writing and, for those grade-oriented students, that it does not result in A-level work. It did not matter. The students still used it.

In one activity, my students drafted a paragraph in class, fed their work to ChatGPT with a revision prompt, and then compared the output with their original writing. However, these types of comparative analyses failed because most of my students were not developed enough as writers to analyze the subtleties of meaning or evaluate style. “It makes my writing look fancy,” one PhD student protested when I pointed to weaknesses in AI-revised text.

My students also relied heavily on AI-powered paraphrasing tools such as Quillbot. Paraphrasing well, like drafting original research, is a process of deepening understanding. Recent high-profile examples of “duplicative language” are a reminder that paraphrasing is hard work. It is not surprising, then, that many students are tempted by AI-powered paraphrasing tools. These technologies, however, often result in inconsistent writing style, do not always help students avoid plagiarism, and allow the writer to gloss over understanding. Online paraphrasing tools are useful only when students have already developed a deep knowledge of the craft of writing.

Students who outsource their writing to AI lose an opportunity to think more deeply about their research. In a recent article on art and generative AI, author Ted Chiang put it this way: “Using ChatGPT to complete assignments is like bringing a forklift into the weight room; you will never improve your cognitive fitness that way.” Chiang also notes that the hundreds of small choices we make as writers are just as important as the initial conception. Chiang is a writer of fiction, but the logic applies equally to scholarly writing. Decisions regarding syntax, vocabulary, and other elements of style imbue a text with meaning nearly as much as the underlying research.

Generative AI is, in some ways, a democratizing tool. Many of my students were non-native speakers of English. Their writing frequently contained grammatical errors. Generative AI is effective at correcting grammar. However, the technology often changes vocabulary and alters meaning even when the only prompt is “fix the grammar.” My students lacked the skills to identify and correct subtle shifts in meaning. I could not convince them of the need for stylistic consistency or the need to develop voices as research writers.

The problem was not recognizing AI-generated or AI-revised text. At the start of every semester, I had students write in class. With that baseline sample as a point of comparison, it was easy for me distinguish between my students’ writing and text generated by ChatGPT. I am also familiar with AI detectors, which purport to indicate whether something has been generated by AI. These detectors, however, are faulty. AI-assisted writing is easy to identify but hard to prove.

As a result, I found myself spending many hours grading writing that I knew was generated by AI. I noted where arguments were unsound. I pointed to weaknesses such as stylistic quirks that I knew to be common to ChatGPT (I noticed a sudden surge of phrases such as “delves into”).  That is, I found myself spending more time giving feedback to AI than to my students.

So I quit.

The best educators will adapt to AI. In some ways, the changes will be positive. Teachers must move away from mechanical activities or assigning simple summaries. They will find ways to encourage students to think critically and learn that writing is a way of generating ideas, revealing contradictions, and clarifying methodologies.

However, those lessons require that students be willing to sit with the temporary discomfort of not knowing. Students must learn to move forward with faith in their own cognitive abilities as they write and revise their way into clarity. With few exceptions, my students were not willing to enter those uncomfortable spaces or remain there long enough to discover the revelatory power of writing.

Time

The surge in petrol prices in Nigeria, rising from N187 per litre when President Bola Tinubu took office last year to N1,000 per litre, reflects a complex blend of both domestic and international economic factors. The reasons why petrol prices are unlikely to decline soon, as outlined in the analysis below, offer a significant understanding of the issue.

Key Reasons Why Petrol Prices Will Remain High:

1. Dollar Denominated Crude Sales and Depreciating Naira

The sale of crude oil, the primary feedstock for refineries, is priced in U.S. dollars. While the federal government has proposed selling crude to local refineries in the local currency, Naira, starting from October 2024, the pricing benchmark will still remain in U.S. dollars. This implies that even when sold in Naira, the exchange rate between the Naira and the dollar will determine the actual cost.

With the Naira's rapid depreciation—now at around N1,700 to $1—and no clear signs of recovery, the cost of crude oil in local currency terms will continue to rise. The weakening currency effectively means higher costs for refined petrol. This exchange rate pressure, driven by a lack of robust foreign reserves, weak investor confidence, and structural imbalances in Nigeria’s economy, ensures that petrol prices will remain high, or potentially rise further.

2. Global Oil Price Dynamics

International crude oil prices are sensitive to geopolitical tensions, such as the current conflicts in the Middle East, and changes in global demand. Historically, tensions in oil-producing regions drive prices upward, and the Middle East remains a major player in global oil supply. With no immediate resolution to these conflicts in sight, oil prices are expected to continue climbing. The combination of high international oil prices and a depreciating Naira will exacerbate the situation, making it difficult for Nigeria to reduce petrol prices.

3. Government's Economic Policy and Subsidy Removal

The Tinubu administration has taken a clear stance against subsidies on petrol, aligning with the IMF and World Bank’s advocacy for market-based pricing mechanisms. The government’s removal of subsidies has led to a significant price increase. As the government remains committed to the Bretton Woods Institutions’ policies, the chances of reintroducing subsidies are slim, further cementing the reality of sustained high petrol prices.

4. High Electricity Costs and Alternative Energy Challenges

The high cost of electricity in Nigeria forces many households, small businesses, and even industries to rely on petrol-powered generators. With no affordable and reliable alternatives, demand for petrol remains robust. The slow adoption of Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) as an alternative for vehicles, coupled with the prohibitive cost of electric vehicles (EVs), ensures that petrol remains the primary energy source for both mobility and power generation. Until there is significant investment in and adoption of alternative energy sources, demand for petrol will remain high, further pushing prices up.

5. Refinery Challenges and Import Dependency

Nigeria’s refineries have been largely non-operational, and despite ongoing efforts to rehabilitate them, the timeline for local refining to meet domestic demand remains uncertain. Until local refining capacity is significantly expanded, Nigeria will remain dependent on imported refined products, which are subject to the volatility of international oil markets and exchange rates. Even the much-hyped Dangote Refinery may take time to stabilize its output to meet domestic demand. This heavy reliance on imports leaves Nigeria vulnerable to global price fluctuations, ensuring that petrol prices will remain high.

6. Inflationary Pressures

The general inflation rate in Nigeria, currently at historic highs, also feeds into higher petrol prices. Rising costs across sectors, from logistics to labour, affect the entire supply chain of petrol distribution. Inflation erodes purchasing power and adds to the cost of production, making it more expensive for importers and distributors to bring fuel to the market.

7. Limited Policy Interventions

There is a clear lack of effective policy interventions to manage the growing energy crisis. While the government has made promises to boost local refining capacity and encourage alternative energy sources, the implementation of these policies is slow. Without significant regulatory or infrastructural changes, the systemic issues driving petrol price increases will persist. Moreover, the financial constraints faced by the government limit its ability to intervene meaningfully in the short term.

Implications for the Nigerian Economy and Living Standards

1. Increased Cost of Living

Rising petrol prices have direct and far-reaching impacts on the cost of living. Transportation costs, which are a significant component of everyday expenses for many Nigerians, are closely tied to fuel prices. With the rise in petrol prices, transportation fares have surged, affecting not only individuals but also the cost of goods and services. The increase in logistics costs means higher prices for food, consumer goods, and essential services, contributing to overall inflation and reducing disposable incomes.

2. Stagflation Concerns

The combination of high inflation and stagnating economic growth—referred to as stagflation—is a serious concern. As petrol prices rise, so too does inflation, while economic growth remains tepid due to structural issues such as poor infrastructure, high unemployment, and weak industrial output. This could lead to a scenario where economic activity slows while prices continue to rise, creating a difficult environment for businesses and households.

3. Strain on Small Businesses

Small businesses, which often rely on petrol-powered generators due to unreliable electricity supply, are hit hard by rising fuel costs. Many small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) already operate on thin margins, and the added burden of higher fuel prices may lead more to closures or reduced operations. This could result in higher unemployment and reduced economic output, further exacerbating poverty levels in the country.

4. Worsening Poverty and Social Unrest

Nigeria's poverty levels are already among the highest in the world, and rising petrol prices are likely to push more people into poverty. As living costs increase and real incomes stagnate, more Nigerians will struggle to afford basic necessities. This economic pressure could also heighten social unrest, as people become increasingly frustrated with their deteriorating standard of living. The government will need to address this issue with social safety nets and targeted interventions to avoid widespread discontent.

5. Pressure on Government Revenues

While the removal of subsidies has freed up some government resources, rising petrol prices can also place additional pressure on public finances. If inflation and economic stagnation continue, tax revenues may fall, and the government may face pressure to increase social spending to mitigate the impact on vulnerable populations. This creates a difficult balancing act for policymakers, as they must find ways to stimulate growth while managing rising costs and social discontent.

Conclusion

The likelihood of petrol prices falling in the near future is slim due to a combination of domestic economic challenges and global oil market dynamics. The implications of persistently high petrol prices are profound for the Nigerian economy and its citizens. Rising costs of living, inflationary pressures, and a lack of viable alternatives to petrol create a grim outlook for economic recovery and poverty alleviation in the short term.

Organisers of today’s protest against hardship and bad governance, yesterday, alleged that the Federal Government and the Police were intimidating them but vowed to proceed with the action as the Police said protest or procession would not be allowed to take place in the Federal Capital Territory, FCT, Abuja.

Nobody is harassing organisers – FG

However, the Federal Government denied organisers’ allegations that they were being harassed and intimidated. Still, it said there was no need for the protest while asking the organisers to see opportunity in the various government policies and use them to better their lives.

In a chat with Vanguard, the Minister of Information and National Orientation, Mohammed Idris said the Federal Government will not join issues with anybody on the allegation but insisted that there is no need for the protest since the government is working hard to turn things around for the country.

“The government of President Bola Tinubu is committed to ensuring peace, unity and prosperity for all,” he added.

IGP orders water-tight security

This came as the Inspector-General of Police, Kayode Egbetokun, also yesterday ordered water-tight security nationwide to create a safe and conducive environment for citizens.

The order was contained in a statement by Force Public Relations Officer, Olumuyiwa Adejobi.

The statement said the IGP ordered the deployment of adequate human and tactical resources to enable a maximum level of security and a seamless celebration of Independence Day.

According to the Force PRO, the Police, in synergy with other security agencies, will fortify various designated event venues and major highways across the country, to forestall any threats to lives and property as well as the celebration.

Assistant Inspector-General of Police in charge of Zone 7, Benneth Igweh, declared that no form of protest or procession from any group will be allowed in Abuja because the FCT command didn’t receive an application for protest from any group.

Besides, he said the Police command in FCT has intelligence that some groups were planning to go against the law by embarking on unauthorized protests in the FCT.

Indeed, ahead of the Independence Day celebration, the FCT police command has strategically deployed personnel and equipment throughout Abuja.

Despite the Police stance and alleged intimidation, the convener of #RevolutionNow movement, Omoyele Sowore, yesterday, insisted that there is no going back on today’s protest because only a revolution would save the country.

Meanwhile, civil society organisations, CSOs, in Edo State were divided on the issue and protest coordinators across the 19 northern states pulled out on grounds that organisers had not done enough to provide security for protesters. This was as a coalition of CSOs in Kaduna kicking against the nationwide planned action.

Also, the Maritime Workers Union of Nigeria, MWUN, urged miscreants and those planning to protest to stay away from port formations to avoid unpleasant consequences.

No protest in Abuja

AIG Igweh said: “October 1 is our independence day and the Federal Government has declared a public holiday for all Nigerians to celebrate. We are ready to protect you. We are ready to guarantee your protection to celebrate as long as you act within the ambit of the law.

“We have a lot of intelligence at our disposal that some miscreants, including members of the proscribed Islamic Movements of Nigeria, IMN (Shiites), want to take to the streets to protest. This is not allowed because they have been proscribed; they don’t have the right to assemble. They don’t have the right of procession.

“Tomorrow, (today), anybody or group that wants to flout the law, we will be ready for them.”

Reminded that some groups planning to embark on the protest said they had submitted an application for peaceful/guided protest to the office of the IGP, he said: “The Police command in FCT has not received any letter or application for any protest march. So, protesters should stay away from Abuja.”

On whether protest is no longer allowed, as enshrined in the constitution, Igweh said: “Protest is allowed if it is within the ambit of the law but if your protest is not within the ambit of the law, we will tell you law exists and the law must be obeyed.”

Deployment of anti-riot officers, equipment

Meanwhile, the FCT police command has strategically deployed personnel and equipment throughout Abuja.
The Ccommand in a statement by Josephine Adeh, said: “These proactive deployments aim to ensure that residents of the FCT enjoy a hitch-free Independence Day celebration.

“The deployment will include Explosive Ordnance Disposal, EOD, personnel, anti-riot equipment, and visibility policing, among others.

“Traffic diversions will be implemented in areas expected to experience large crowds, including Central Area and Eagle Square.

“While celebrating Independence Day, residents of the FCT are encouraged to remain vigilant and report any suspicious movements or activities to the FCT Police emergency lines: 08032003913, 08028940883, 08061581938, 07057337653, PCB: 09022222352, CRU: 08107314192.”

In the same vein, the chairman of the Police Service Commission, PSC, Hashimu Argungu, called for renewed faith in the greatness of the country as Nigeria celebrates her 64th year of nationhood.
A statement by the commission said DIG Argungu also demanded patriotism and sacrifice from staff of the PSC and police officers who he admonished to have a sense of pride “for you belong to a great and promising nation.”

Only revolution can save Nigeria — Sowore

Speaking on the issue, Sowore, in a chat with newsmen, stated that the recent intimidation from Federal Government and security operatives will not dissuade citizens from protesting against economic hardship in the country.

He said: “I can tell you that there will be protests. I can also confirm to you that I will be out there on the protest lines, joining my voice to that of other Nigerian patriots, to denounce the anti-people policies of this government.

“The protests will be peaceful and they will be national, across the country. The protests will hold across all parts of Nigeria because the scale of the devastation, hunger, insecurity, and hardship that this government has unleashed on Nigerians is national. I will emphasise again that these will be peaceful protests, as they’ve always been.

“The last protests were peaceful, yet the government met the protesters with batons and bullets. We will not be deterred. Our only weapon is truth, and no amount of force or violence will prevent us from speaking truth to power.”

The activist noted that the Nigeria Police Force does not need any formal notice about the planned nationwide protests because the demonstrations against hunger and insecurity would happen around them.
He said: “The police are aware that there will be protests. They understand why there will be protests. After all, they are Nigerians as well. They go to the same markets as everyone else.

“Their children attend the same schools that have become unaffordable to the common person. They are suffering the effects of high inflation. They are the ones being shot at by bandits and terrorists. The notice that the police need is that protests will happen all around them.”

Protest seeks fresh independence from internal colonizers

Speaker further, Sowore, the 2023 presidential candidate of African Action Congress, AAC, told Vanguard said the protest was not to attract attention for dialogue with Aso Rock but for their demands to be met and ensure that the tyranny in the democratic system was defeated.

“We did not plan the protest to get an invitation to the Aso Rock Villa. I am sure we are only ready for change, not monologue. The ultimatum attached to our demands has to be met tomorrow (today).”

He explained that the protest was fixed for October 1 because “it is a significant protest that first questions the Independence of 1960 from Britain and now seeks a new independence from internal colonizers.”

Northern coordinators pull out

Barely 24 hours to the protest, coordinators of the #EndBadGovernance protest across the 19 northern states pulled out yesterday, citing failure on the side of national organizers to resolve knotty issues around how to safeguard protesters and wade off hoodlums from hijacking the process again.

In a statement jointly signed by the chairman and secretary of the Northern Coordinators of #EndBadGovernance protest, Abdullahi Daura and Mohammed Musa Biu, the coordinators stated that members are apprehensive about a repeat of the violence that erupted in Kano, Kaduna and other parts of the North and wouldn’t want anything destructive.

“We have asked questions and written several letters requesting for security cover at the convergence points in the North where people will join the protest. But we are yet to get a clear answer and measures taken to avoid violence and looting of property.

“Against this background, we are urging all our members in all the 19 states to obey directives from the coordinators and pull out until we get clearance from security agencies.”

While assuring Nigerians of their resolve to put pressure on the Federal Government to reverse all unfriendly policies that have caused untold hardship, they stated: “Lives and property of innocent citizens matter to us more than anything.

‘’Thus, we back out until further notice. We, therefore, warn our members to remain calm and peaceful during the October 1 Independence Day Celebration across the North.”

Osun group mobilises residents

In Osun, the Coalition for Concerned Nigerians, CCN, the group responsible for the #EndBadGovernance protest in the state, urged residents to throng the roads to protest against excruciating hardship in the country.
Addressing newsmen in Osogbo, the group’s Co-ordinator, Adetunji Ajala, said despite agitations by Nigerians through the #EndBadGovernance protest last month, the President Bola Tinubu-led administration has failed to yield to the voice of the masses.

“The current administration does not listen to peaceful talk of addressing fuel price hike and hunger that the majority of Nigerians are passing through, which necessitated the #EndBadGovernance protest.

Vanguard

The World Bank has announced the approval of $1.57 billion (N2.4 trillion at N1601 to a dollar) to boost human capital in Nigeria through better health for women, children and adolescents.

According to a statement by the bank, part of the support will also help to mitigate the impact of climate change in Nigeria through improvement in dam safety and irrigation.

It added that “The new financing includes $500 million for addressing governance issues that constrain the delivery of education and health (HOPE-GOV), $570 million for the Primary Healthcare Provision Strengthening Program (HOPE-PHC) and $500 million for the Sustainable Power and Irrigation for Nigeria Project (SPIN).

“The SPIN project will support improvement of dams’ safety and management of water resources for hydropower and irrigation in selected areas of Nigeria,”

The World Bank further stated that the HOPE-GOV Program will focus on critical cross-cutting challenges and enabling factors related to both financial and human resource management in basic education and primary healthcare sectors.

Daily Trust

Israel launches ground raids in south Lebanon, saying it is targeting Hezbollah

Israeli ground forces crossed into southern Lebanon early Tuesday, marking a significant escalation of an offensive against Hezbollah militants and opening a new front in a yearlong war against its Iranian-backed adversaries.

The incursion follows weeks of heavy blows by Israel against Hezbollah — including an airstrike that killed its longtime leader, Hassan Nasrallah – and seeks to step up the pressure on the group, which began firing rockets into northern Israel after the start of the war in Gaza. The last time Israel and Hezbollah engaged in ground combat was a monthlong war in 2006.

The Israeli military said in a brief statement it had begun “limited, localized and targeted ground raids” against Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon.

“These targets are located in villages close to the border and pose an immediate threat to Israeli communities in northern Israel,” it said.

There was no word on how long the operation would last, but the army said soldiers had been training and preparing for the mission in recent months. Israel has said it will continue to strike the group until it is safe for displaced Israelis from border communities to return to their homes.

Ahead of the Israeli announcement, U.S. officials said Israel had launched small ground raids inside Lebanon, and Israel declared three small border communities to be a “closed military zone,” restricting access only to army personnel.

There were no reports of direct clashes between Israeli troops and Hezbollah militants. But throughout the evening, Israeli artillery units pounded targets in southern Lebanon and the sounds of airstrikes were heard throughout Beirut.

Smoke rose from the capital’s southern suburbs, where Hezbollah has a strong presence, shortly after Israel ordered residents of three buildings to evacuate.

Israel launches risky phase of fighting

Israel has been emboldened by its recent battlefield gains against Hezbollah and appears intent on delivering a knockout blow to its archenemy. But a ground operation marks a new and potentially risky phase of fighting. It also threatens to unleash further devastation on Lebanon, where hundreds have been killed in recent Israeli strikes and hundreds of thousands have been displaced.

Hezbollah is a well-trained militia, believed to have tens of thousands of fighters and an arsenal of 150,000 rockets and missiles. The last round of fighting in 2006 ended in a stalemate.

Both sides have spent the past two decades preparing for their next showdown. While Hezbollah has built up a formidable arsenal, Israel has invested great sums into training and intelligence gathering.

Recent airstrikes wiping out most of Hezbollah’s top leadership and the explosions of hundreds of pagers and walkie-talkies belonging to Hezbollah indicate that Israel has infiltrated deep inside the group’s upper echelons.

Hezbollah vowed Monday to keep fighting even after its recent losses. The group’s acting leader, Naim Kassem, said in a televised statement that Hezbollah would be ready for a ground operation. He said commanders killed in recent weeks have already been replaced.

The man widely expected to take over the top post from Kassem is Hashem Safieddine, a cousin of Nasrallah who oversees Hezbollah’s political affairs.

Israel shifts attention from Gaza to Lebanon

Israeli strikes in recent weeks have hit what the military says are thousands of militant targets across large parts of Lebanon. Over 1,000 people have been killed in Lebanon in the past two weeks, nearly a quarter of them women and children, according to the Health Ministry.

Early Monday, an airstrike hit a residential building in central Beirut, killing three Palestinian militants, as Israel appeared to send a message that no part of Lebanon is out of bounds.

Israel declared war against the Hamas militant group in the Gaza Strip after Hamas’ cross-border attack last Oct. 7 that killed 1,200 Israelis and took 250 others hostage. More than 41,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza, and just over half the dead have been women and children, according to local health officials.

Hezbollah began firing rockets into Israel on Oct. 8 in solidarity with the Palestinian militant group.

Israel and Hezbollah have exchanged fire almost every day since then, coming close to a full-fledged war on several occasions but stepping back from the brink.

But as Israel’s war against against Hamas has scaled back in recent weeks, it has turned its focus northward toward Lebanon and stepped up the attacks on Hezbollah.

Israeli leaders say they want Hezbollah to implement the U.S. resolution that ended the 2006 war, which required the group to withdraw some 20 miles (30 kilometers) from the Israeli border.

Key setbacks for Hezbollah

Hezbollah has suffered key setbacks in recent weeks. Before Nasrallah’s assassination, a series of mysterious explosions of pagers and walkie-talkies blamed on Israel killed or wounded hundreds of people, many of them Hezbollah members. And Israeli airstrikes have killed most of the group’s senior commanders.

But Hezbollah has continued to launch rockets and missiles into Israel and is still believed to have thousands of fighters near the Israeli border.

Israeli leaders for years have accused Hezbollah of hiding weapons and fighters inside homes and other civilian structures in border villages. Tens of thousands of Lebanese civilians have fled southern Lebanon in recent weeks fearing an Israeli military onslaught.

Hezbollah has few air defenses, giving the Israeli air force freedom of action over Lebanon’s skies. But a ground operation will be much more challenging, with Hezbollah forces embedded and hiding in local communities and familiar with the local terrain.

Still, Hezbollah’s capabilities remain unclear. It’s possible Hezbollah is holding back to save resources for a bigger battle. But the militant group might also be in disarray after Israeli intelligence apparently penetrated its highest levels.

Some European countries began pulling their diplomats and citizens out of Lebanon on Monday. Germany sent a military plane to evacuate diplomats’ relatives and others. Bulgaria sent a government jet to get the first group of its citizens out.

Israel has a long and bloody history in Lebanon. It briefly invaded in 1978 in a strike against Palestinian militants. It invaded again in 1982 in an operation that turned into an 18-year occupation of southern Lebanon.

The stepped-up action against Hezbollah also could raise the risk of a broader region-wide war as Israel confronts a series of foes backed by archenemy Iran.

Israel this week carried out an airstrike in Yemen against the Houthi militia in response to a series of missile strikes. Netanyahu has also threatened Iran, warning the Tehran government that Israel is capable of striking anywhere in the Middle East.

The United States and its allies have called for a cease-fire, hoping to avoid further escalation that could draw in Iran and set off a wider war. But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has shown little interest, as his country racks up military achievements against a longtime foe.

France, which has close ties to Lebanon, has joined the United States in calling for a cease-fire. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot, visiting Beirut Monday, urged Israel to refrain from a ground offensive.

Barrot also called on Hezbollah to stop firing on Israel, saying the group “bears heavy responsibility in the current situation, given its choice to enter the conflict.”

Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati, speaking after meeting with Barrot, said the country is committed to an immediate cease-fire followed by the deployment of Lebanese troops in the south, in keeping with a U.N. Security Council resolution that ended the 2006 war but was never fully implemented.

AP

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Putin orders conscription of 133,000 servicemen in Russia's autumn draft

Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the conscription of 133,000 new servicemen in Russia's autumn draft that starts Oct. 1 and goes until the end of the year, according to a Kremlin decree published on Monday.

The decree, published in Russian state-run newspaper Rossiyskaya Gazeta, calls to carry out the draft of citizens "aged 18 to 30 years, who are not in the reserve and are subject to conscription in accordance with the Federal Law ... in the amount of 133,000 people."

The head of Russia's conscription office, Vice-Admiral Vladimir Tsimlyansky said that the terms for the conscript remain the same: 12-month service in military units in Russia.

"I would like to note that conscripts will not be called up to participate in the special military operation in the new regions," Rossiyskaya Gazeta cited Tsimlyansky as saying.

Russia calls its war in Ukraine, which it started with a full-scale invasion in February 2022, a special military operation. Kyiv and its allies call it an unprovoked, imperialistic attempt to grab land.

In a move condemned by most of the Western world, Russia annexed parts of southeastern Ukraine in late 2022, calling the land 'new regions.'

Citing growing threats on Russia's western borders, Putin in September ordered the Russian army to be increased by 180,000 troops to 1.5 million active servicemen, a move that would make it the second largest in the world after China's.

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, U.S. President Joe Biden and other NATO leaders have blamed Putin for being the sole aggressor in the conflictin Ukraine and posing threats to other of its neighbours.

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Zelensky ready to fire spy chief – media

Ukrainian military intelligence chief Kirill Budanov could soon be forced to resign, and his successor is likely to have already been chosen, the New Voice (NV) news site reported on Sunday, citing a law enforcement agency source. 

Rumors of Budanov’s possible dismissal began to circulate shortly after Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky sacked half of the cabinet in early September. The purge included then Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba and the Deputy Prime Minister for European Integration Olga Stefanishina.

It has also been also reported that there have been “serious tensions”between Budanov, the head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR), and Zelensky’s chief of staff, Andrey Yermak – described by The Times as the de facto ruler of Ukraine – which could be a factor in his potential removal. 

Commenting on the rumors that Budanov will be fired, the NV’s source said that this “option exists.”

However, the source denied reports that the intelligence chief would follow Ukraine’s former top general, Valery Zaluzhny, by being appointed as an ambassador abroad. 

According to the source, the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service, Oleg Ivashchenko, is likely to succeed Budanov. 

There have been no official statements from the HUR so far. 

Budanov was appointed as military intelligence chief in 2020, and previously served as deputy director of the Department of Foreign Intelligence. 

While it is typical of Zelensky to conduct purges after battlefield setbacks, some view the recent mass firing of ministers as an attempt by Yermak to concentrate power. 

A member of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security, Sergey Rakhmanin, told the NV last week that the talks about Budanov’s possible dismissal were “precisely a sign” that his relationship with Yermak had deteriorated. 

“As a rule, as soon as rumors start to appear that someone might leave their position, confirmation soon follows that, for one reason or another, either the person has quarreled with the head of the office or their relationship has worsened,” he added.

Reuters/RT

When one looks for a figure who best represents the worst tendencies of our brutal age, the first names that come to mind include Yahya Sinwar (Hamas’s leader in Gaza), Binyamin Netanyahu, Kim Jong-un, or Vladimir Putin. But that is primarily because we are bombarded with news about these leaders. If we widen the lens to account for horrors that Western mainstream media largely ignore, those waging Sudan’s civil war stand out even more. The country’s new warlords are displaying shocking cruelty and indifference toward their own people (or those living in the regions they control), including by systematically hampering the flow of humanitarian aid and taking an exorbitant amount of it for themselves.

The situation in Sudan exposes a global economic logic that has remained obfuscated in other cases. Back in 2019, widespread demonstrationstoppled the country’s longtime dictator, Omar al-Bashir, whose reign at least had maintained a semblance of peace and stability following the secession of South Sudan (a predominantly Christian country that is now mired in its own civil war). Then, following a brief moment of transitional government and renewed hopes for democratization, a brutal war erupted between two Muslim warlords: General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the leaderof the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) who is still nominally head of state, and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (or Hemedti, meaning “little Mohamed”), the commander of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and one of the country’s wealthiest men.

The RSF is behind some of the worst atrocities of the current conflict, including the Khartoum massacre on June 3, 2019, when more than 120 protestors were killed, hundreds more wounded, thousands of women raped, and many homes pillaged. More recently, Dagalo’s forces triggered a new cycle of violence on April 15, 2023, when they launched a broad assault on SAF bases across the country, including in the capital, Khartoum.

Although both sides express a vague commitment to democracy, no one takes such claims seriously. What they really mean is, “First we have to win the war; then we’ll see.” This is an understandable position to take. To all those involved, a mostly benevolent dictatorship like Paul Kagame’s regimein Rwanda may be the best that one can realistically hope for. 

Further complicating matters is the role of external forces. For example, Russia’s Wagner Group, the Libyan National Army (under the command of Khalifa Haftar), and the United Arab Emirates have reportedly furnished the RSF with military supplies, helicopters, and weapons on a scale that has left it better armed than the SAF. Meanwhile, the SAF has been looking for its own backers, not least China.

But the RSF has another major advantage: Dagalo controls a region with abundant gold reserves that allow him to purchase all the weapons he needs. We are thus reminded of a sad truth facing many developing countries: natural resources are as likely to be a source of violence and poverty as they are to underpin peace and prosperity.

The quintessential example is the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which has long been cursed by its reserves of critical minerals, diamonds, and gold. If it had no such resources, it would still be poor, but it might be a happier, more peaceful place to live. The DRC is also an exemplary case of how the developed West contributes to the circumstances for mass migration. Behind the façade of “primitive” ethnic passions exploding yet again in the African “heart of darkness,” one can discern the unmistakable contours of global capitalism.

After the fall of Mobutu Sese Soko in 1997, the DRC ceased to exist as a functioning state. Its eastern region now comprises a multiplicity of territories ruled by local warlords whose armies press-gang and drug children and maintain business ties with the foreign corporations that are exploiting the region’s mineral reserves. This arrangement serves both partners: the corporations get mining rights without having to pay state taxes, and the warlords get money with which to buy arms. Many of these minerals then end up in our laptops, mobile phones, and other high-tech products. The problem is not the “savage” customs of the local population; it is the foreign companies and the wealthy consumers who buy their products. Remove them from the equation and the entire edifice of ethnic warfare crumbles.

The DRC is no exception, as demonstrated by the de facto dismemberment – or, rather, “Congo-ization” – of Libya following NATO’s intervention and the fall of Muammar al-Gaddafi in 2011. Since then, much of Libya’s territory has been ruled by local armed gangs who sell oil directly to foreign customers, reminding us of capitalism’s tenacity in securing a steady supply of cheap raw materials. This is why so many states damned with the resource curse remain condemned to their plight.

The tragic upshot is that no party in ongoing conflicts is innocent or righteous. In Sudan, the problem is not just the RSF; both sides are playing the same brutal game. The situation cannot be reduced to a “backward” people who are not ready for democracy, because it is really about the continuing economic colonization of Africa – not just by the West but also by China, Russia, and rich Arab countries. We should not be surprised that Central Africa is increasingly dominated by Russian mercenaries and Muslim fundamentalists.

Yanis Varoufakis has written eloquently about the passage of capitalism to “technofeudalism,” as evidenced by the Big Tech companies’ de facto monopolies over their respective markets. In countries like Sudan and the DRC, however, we have something closer to the feudalism of medieval times. In fact, both descriptions are true: we are increasingly living under a combination of high-tech and analog feudalism. This is why Hemedti – even more than Elon Musk – is the true avatar of our era.

Project Syndicate

Shani Harmon

For every good reason to change the way we work, there are dozens of excuses for why not to. In the decades I’ve been trying to help organizations work in ways that produce joy and productivity, I have encountered every possible type of resistance.

It seems inconceivable that individuals wouldn’t make small changes to their behavior in service of a better workday. Especially when those changes have been proven to lead to more efficient and effective collaboration.

But yet, what we see time and again is initial excitement turning into cynicism when back in the day-to-day. Team members commit to making positive change such as shortening their default meeting duration to create buffer time, but then lose their will when no one else follows suit. Our social brain follows the pack. And when the pack hunkers down in old ways of working, everyone else does too.

So who leads the pack? (That’s a rhetorical question.) Leaders are sending constant, conscious and unconscious cues through their words and actions. We call these “leader signals,” and they’re the primary way teams understand how to behave in order to succeed.

If you’re looking to unleash greater productivity and speed across your team, leverage your own leader signals as a catalyst. Here’s how:

Start with the why

While improving the way teams collaborate ultimately saves exponential time and frustration, it’s not a quick fix. Be clear about your goals and paint a picture of success: “Imagine a world where your day is a balance of thinking time, collaboration, and good meetings. One where we all get the day’s work done within the workday. That’s what we’re striving for.”

Model the change

“Do as I say, not as I do” just isn’t going to cut it when it comes to changing ways of working. For example, if “no meeting Fridays” are part of your plan to carve out focused work time for the team, sneaking in 1:1s and other meetings is going to signal that 1) focus time isn’t really a priority, and 2) ignoring the rest of your new norms is fair game.

When there is misalignment between a leader’s messages and behavior, the team can quickly become disillusioned. Instead, leaders must visibly, vocally, and consistently model the change, even when things get busy (which they will).

Keep communicating

Just like viral news stories fade into the background, so do change efforts. Once the initial hype is over, it can be easy for business as usual to resume. Instead, try maintaining the momentum through deliberate and frequent communications, e.g., “tips of the week” via your messaging channel, regularly spotlighting team success stories, or even tracking stats. (Trying 45-minute meetings instead of an hour? Keep a count of the minutes your team saves over the course of the quarter.)

Provide resources

While an offsite or an all-team workshop is a great way to introduce new practices, one training session isn’t going to be enough to make the change stick. Schedule follow-on sessions to check in on progress and collectively troubleshoot challenges. We also recommend documenting the new norms, ideally along with some tips and tricks for putting them into practice, and posting them in a place where the whole team has easy access.

We get it – change isn’t easy, especially when the work is plentiful and time is scarce. But by prioritizing consistency and communication, your leader signals will drive better ways of working.

Forbes

Since President Bola Tinubu's inauguration on May 29, 2023, the Nigerian Naira has experienced a sharp and persistent decline in value. At the time of Tinubu's assumption of office, the official exchange rate stood around N465/$. However, after the decision to float the Naira and unify Nigeria’s multiple exchange rates, the currency has depreciated dramatically, losing over 70% of its value. As of recent, the Naira traded at about N1,700/$ in the parallel market, marking a massive devaluation that has exacerbated Nigeria's inflationary pressures and living costs.

Several factors have contributed to this devaluation, with the following issues making it clear that the Naira will not appreciate in value in the near future.

1. Dependence on Crude Oil and Declining Output

Nigeria’s economy is heavily dependent on crude oil exports, which make up the bulk of the country’s foreign exchange earnings. However, Nigeria’s oil production has been hampered by significant challenges, especially massive oil theft in the Niger Delta region. While Nigeria once produced up to 2.4 million barrels per day (bpd), current estimates show the country’s output now hovers around 1.5 million bpd. This reduction severely limits Nigeria’s capacity to generate foreign exchange through oil exports.

Additionally, a significant portion of Nigeria’s future oil output is already committed to servicing loans, such as the recent $3.2 billion loan from the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank). The use of oil receipts to offset debts reduces the foreign exchange available to support the Naira.

2. Dangote Refinery and the Opportunity Cost of Local Refining

The much-anticipated Dangote Refinery, which promises to reduce Nigeria’s dependence on imported refined petroleum products, is often cited as a possible solution to the Naira’s challenges. The refinery is expected to conserve about 35% of foreign exchange that Nigeria currently spends on fuel imports.

However, this gain comes with a significant trade-off. Instead of exporting crude oil to earn foreign currency, the government will have to sell crude oil to the refinery in Naira, thus missing out on potential foreign exchange earnings. This opportunity cost diminishes the potential benefit of local refining, further complicating efforts to stabilize or improve the value of the Naira.

3. Challenges in the Manufacturing Sector

Nigeria’s manufacturing sector has been severely constrained by the scarcity of foreign exchange and rising energy costs. Manufacturers who previously produced goods for export to the broader West African market are now struggling to stay afloat, as they face difficulties in obtaining the necessary foreign currency to import machinery, raw materials, and energy supplies.

The continued shutdown of manufacturing concerns means fewer foreign exchange inflows from non-oil exports, further weakening Nigeria's ability to accumulate foreign reserves and support the Naira. This sectoral decline contributes to the shortage of foreign exchange that is essential for stabilizing the currency.

4. Weak Foreign Investment Inflows

The floating of the Naira and exchange rate unification were intended to attract foreign investment by aligning the official and parallel market rates. However, the desired influx of foreign capital has not materialized at the scale needed to stabilize the currency. Foreign investors remain cautious, given Nigeria’s economic uncertainties, policy instability, and security risks.

Additionally, Nigeria’s high inflation rate, currently well above 30%, coupled with rising interest rates in developed economies, has made it less attractive for investors seeking stable returns. This is exacerbated by foreign exchange controls and difficulties in repatriating profits, making Nigeria a less appealing investment destination.

5. Inflation and Monetary Policy Limitations

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has faced challenges in managing inflation, which has been driven by both currency depreciation and supply-side factors, such as fuel and food price increases. The CBN's efforts to stabilize the Naira through higher interest rates and intervention in the foreign exchange market have so far been insufficient to counteract the broader forces driving the Naira’s depreciation.

Moreover, the float of the Naira, while theoretically designed to attract investment, has led to increased speculation and instability in the foreign exchange market, contributing to further depreciation. The divergence between the official rate and the parallel market rate has also created uncertainty, making it difficult for the CBN to exert effective control over the currency.

6. Global Economic Conditions

Global economic conditions, such as the increasing strength of the U.S. dollar due to rising interest rates by the Federal Reserve (until the first rate cut 2 weeks ago) have made it more expensive for countries like Nigeria to service foreign debt and acquire essential imports. As the U.S. dollar appreciates against other currencies, the Naira, already under pressure from domestic factors, has depreciated further.

The higher cost of servicing foreign debt means Nigeria must allocate more of its dwindling foreign reserves toward debt repayment, further reducing the amount of foreign exchange available to support the Naira.

7. Foreign Currency Hoarding and Capital Flight

A critical, often overlooked, factor in the Naira’s persistent depreciation is the behavior of Nigeria’s political and business elites, who hoard foreign currencies as a store of value, largely outside the banking system. This is partly driven by corruption, as vast sums of looted funds are kept in foreign currencies, particularly the U.S. dollar, and stashed both domestically and abroad.

In addition, a sizeable portion of illicit funds is laundered through export proceeds, particularly from the sale of primary products like crude oil and agricultural commodities. These proceeds are often not repatriated to Nigeria, exacerbating the foreign exchange crisis. By holding wealth in foreign currencies, elites increase the demand for hard currency while simultaneously reducing the supply of foreign exchange in the official system, creating additional pressure on the Naira.

Furthermore, these elites often prefer to keep their assets in more stable economies to hedge against domestic economic instability, thus fueling capital flight. This further depletes Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves, as money that could have been used to shore up the Naira is instead flowing out of the country.

The Outlook for the Naira

The Naira is unlikely to appreciate in the short or medium term, given the structural challenges facing Nigeria’s economy. The combination of reduced oil production, opportunity costs from local refining, a struggling manufacturing sector, limited foreign investment inflows, inflationary pressures, and the hoarding of foreign currencies by the elites all contribute to a pessimistic outlook for the currency. Unless significant reforms are implemented to address these issues, including tackling corruption and illicit financial outflows, the Naira’s depreciation trend will likely continue, worsening the economic hardship for many Nigerians.