Will the United States be number three in the new world order? In his forthcoming book, former journalist Hugh Peyman argues that it will: China’s economy has already surpassed that of the US by some measures, and India’s will do the same by mid-century. He also argues that “the Rest” more broadly will pose a growing challenge to the West, which in turn continues to underestimate the challengers.

Peyman is hardly the first to predict the rise of countries that are not included in the geopolitical West (a group that includes Japan). The British economist Angus Maddison knew back in 2007 that China’s GDP would soon overtake that of the US (in purchasing-power-parity terms at constant 1990 US dollar prices), with India at number three. And the OECD estimatesthat India will overtake the US in GDP by 2050, and that, by 2060, the combined GDP of China, India, and Indonesia will equal $116.7 trillion – 49% of GDP – making it three times larger than the US economy.

This should not be particularly surprising, not least because non-Western countries are home to far more people. As Peyman points out, China and India each have populations four times larger than the US, so their combined GDP would be twice that of the US, even with one-quarter America’s per-capita income. As he puts it, “Population numbers dictate that the West is only 10%, the Rest 90%.”

To be sure, when it comes to GDP, the West has often punched well above its demographic weight. In 1950, the West (including Japan) accounted for just 22.4% of the world’s population, but 59.9% of global GDP. Meanwhile, Asia (excluding Japan) accounted for just 15.4% of world GDP, despite being home to 51.4% of the world’s people.

The Industrial Revolution, which afforded the West major economic advantages, together with colonial exploitation, help explain this discrepancy. In 1820, the shares were far more balanced: Asia (excluding Japan) had accounted for 65.2% of the world’s population and 56.4% of global GDP.

By the middle of this century, however, the Rest’s population will be 3.8 times larger than that of the West (including Japan), and its GDP will be 1.7 times larger. As Peyman notes, rising investment in the Rest, not least in education, has played an important role in boosting productivity and rebalancing global output and income.

These investments will continue to pay off. The McKinsey Global Institute predicted last year that in the new multipolar world order, “technology may move to the forefront of geopolitical competition.” Given that human capital, together with governance, is essential to translate technological progress into productivity growth, Asia has an edge: by 2030, the region will be producing more than 70% of the STEM (science, technology, engineering, and math) graduates in the G20, with China alone accounting for 35%, and India for 27%.

Moreover, while the Rest may lag in terms of cutting-edge research, they have proved adept at applying Western innovations to consumer products and services. Drawing on his experiences living in Chinese cities and studying Chinese companies, Peyman describes China’s transition to modernity, which is being emulated, to varying extents, elsewhere among the Rest. For every warning that China will collapse under the weight of a rapidly aging population, overbearing authoritarianism, a massive debt overhang, and slowing growth, there is an example in Peyman’s book of China successfully leveraging scale, entrepreneurship, and innovation to advance its goals and interests.

Unfortunately, Peyman laments, the US remains “blinded by pre-eminence,” making it “slow to see its power ebb.” In fact, it appears that most Westerners take for granted that the Rest are such a diverse lot that they would not be able to pose a coherent, sustained challenge to countries that have long dominated the world order.

But countries like China, India, Indonesia, Singapore, and South Korea have proven that given the chance, the Rest are at least as competent as many of their Western counterparts in manufacturing, exports, infrastructure investment, and governance. Indian executives are running some of the top companies in the West. Meanwhile, many Western countries are failing to achieve “social harmony, broad prosperity, and public health at home.”

Even if the West does recognize its weakening position, Peyman notes, adjusting to it will not be easy. With the vast majority of the world’s population living outside the West, the Rest will no longer accept “exclusion from global decision-making.” The Rest are not seeking to exclude the West in kind, but they do want to play a leading role in reshaping the global rules of the game – formulated by the West – for the twenty-first century.

Peyman concludes by urging US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping – the leaders of the West and the Rest, respectively – to reach a grand bargain, much like the one Richard Nixon struck with Mao Zedong in the early 1970s. Such a bargain would support greater cooperation on the major challenges of our time – beginning with climate change – while reducing the likelihood of devastating conflict.

But a bargain must also be struck between the state, whose power is growing, and market forces, which are becoming increasingly weak. Sudden, unilateral policy changes, such as the imposition or tightening of sanctions, are disrupting private companies’ operations and undermining their profitability. To uphold economic dynamism amid geopolitical tensions, the rules governing private-sector trade and investment – including any national-security “red lines” – must be clarified and respected. The country that provides such rules will shape the new global order, even if it does not have the largest GDP or population.

Project Syndicate

Creativity is the fuel that drives innovation, growth and vibrant work culture. It is a key element in discovering and utilizing the full potential of your team members.

If we, as managers, can help spark our employees' imaginations, we unlock an incredible force in propelling our businesses forward.

So how do we tap into that potential? We need to implement some basic techniques to ensure that we provide the right environment to encourage and nurture creativity. 

1. Share Your Own Ideas

A culture of open communication where everyone feels comfortable sharing their ideas and perspectives is ideal, but often easier said than done. A great way to encourage sharing ideas is to share your own.

Don't be afraid to say something. If you have an idea, mention it to a new employee and see what they think. Vulnerability is contagious. If you put yourself out there, others will feel comfortable doing so as well. 

An excellent structure that provides this open community is one where there is little hierarchy or at least it isn't perceived. If employees feel comfortable broaching new topics, mentioning ideas and approaching management or founders with their thoughts and suggestions.

If they feel heard and worthy of an audience, they are more likely to consider brainstorming and being innovative. Why do we limit our companies to the ideas in the boardroom?

Let's branch out to all the individuals that make a business run and if we lead by example with humbleness and sincerity, we may just find ingenuity. 

2. Team Brainstorming 

Utilize team discussions and brainstorming. As the saying goes, it takes a village! Encourage brainstorming sessions during the day with an open floor concept where anyone can speak.

This is an incredible tool for innovation, but also problem-solving. Encourage everyone to share what they are working on, the setbacks and successes. You never know who may be able to help or have a solution. 

If one employee has a spark of an idea, what you need to turn that idea into a concept you can build on are structure, formatting and evaluation. With a team effort of constructive criticism, pros and cons and building up the idea, you may actually have something you can use.

 A safe space free of judgment is key. Obviously, not every idea will be considered or run with, but if you foster an environment of openness, you may just be able to discover that one-in-a-million idea that changes the trajectory of your business. 

3. Promote Independence

Encourage independence and autonomy so that each individual has the time and freedom to spark imaginative ideas and run with them. Individuals need the space to develop ideas without the risk of constant criticism.

I encourage employers to allocate time for creativity. This is the ultimate catalyst for imaginative thinking. If employees have designated time to explore new ideas, research, brainstorm and experiment, that's what they'll do. A healthy work-life balance is critical to this.

No one is going to be able to let their imagination run if they are burning the candle at both ends. An exhausted, overworked employee is not capable of doing anything more than getting their priorities scratched off the to-do list.

Once they have the freedom to explore their own creative approaches, if they take ownership of their own work, they will also have a larger connection or investment in the idea.

This will give them the confidence to develop the idea thoroughly and workshop mistakes and challenges, so when they do present an idea – hopefully, it is a well-crafted one. 

Consider why your employees should go above and beyond for you. Are you a welcoming company, ready to embrace ideas, give them the attention they deserve and build off each other's imaginations collaboratively?

By adding these techniques to your culture, you will be on the right track to having thriving employees and an advancing business that leaves nothing undiscovered.

Inc

Reports by JC Okechukwu:

A few hours after signing a defense agreement with Niger Republic’s new military government, the head of Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin gave his take on the situation in Niger and the subregion, and said that he sees all these struggles as “liberating,” calling France and the collective west “thieves.” On the major problems that led to the coup in Niger, Prigozin said, “I will answer what the basis for the change of power in Niger is. The basis is the economy. The population of Niger has been driven to poverty for a long time. For example, a French company that mines uranium sold it in the market for $218 while paying Niger only $11 out of every $218 for it.”

He continues to unload on France and the west saying, “You can work with investors on a 50-50 or 30-70% basis, but it is impossible to return to the natives of the country, who were born in this country, who live in this country and who expect that the natural resources of this country belong to them, and which according to the constitution belong to them, only 5% of the wealth you receive from their land.”

Furthermore he said, “To cover up these financial crimes, the country has been infiltrated by huge number of terrorists. This huge number of terrorists, in theory, should be controlled by a huge number of different troops, funded by the UN (United Nations), the European Union, the Americans, the British and others. As a result, the population of Niger, who should be free and happy because of the economic opportunities that existed, was robbed, and kept in fear for decades to keep them silent .”

“To show that these thieves and looters are necessary on the territory of the state, I mean the western countries like France, the USA and so on, they sent their crowds of soldiers who did nothing but receive big budgets which were also misused in various levels. That is why the transformation (coup) in Niger was simply necessary,” he added.

Speaking further he stressed that “The power that was in alliance with Bazoum (the ousted Nigerien president) and his followers, simply covered up, allowing the coalition of people who looted the nation to be present on Niger soil. That’s all. So this is a liberation struggle, a liberation movement for the independence of this country, and May God grant them success,” he concluded.

Few days ago, before this exclusive interview, Prigozhin had admitted that Wagner PMC fighters were all set to help the local government in Niger, and report has it that they’ve already taken position in multiple locations within the country and beyond. So, as far as Prigozhin is concerned, this isn’t just business as usual for him. It’s a fight for liberation, and one about which he is undoubtedly passionate. Now, that’s a very dangerous dimension because, all items will most definitely be on the table.

See the full video of Prigozhin’s interview below. This war is not gonna be a child’s play, if it happens. We can definitely do without it. The wind of change is already in full swing and unstoppable, and I believe this is why they need a war. We can refuse to be tools. We can.

Hopefully Tinubu can see this and read up a little on Wagner’s history and be better advised on what to do, rather than rushing to war after a mere 7 days ultimatum - a war that could engulf the entire region? Who does that? Stuff like this only happen when the war has been planned longer than the so called 7 days, probably even before TINUBU became president. So, if this is the case, who has been busy planning for this war that African brothers are about to execute on African soil against African brothers? Is it possible that the voice of reason can tear through the obstinate, bloodthirsty, hegemonic stranglehold on our political elites and shred the blindfold over their eyes so they can see we’re being set up for a genocidal implosion of historic proportions, at a time when we should be sweating blood and water to uphold true freedom and self preservation on the continent?

The senate has rejected President Bola Tinubu’s request for military intervention in the Republic of Niger.

On Friday, Tinubu, who is the chairman of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) wrote to the National Assembly about the military intervention in Niger, following the coup that removed President Mohamed Bazoum.

In the letter, Tinubu said the move to deploy military force was part of the bloc’s conclusions at the meeting held on Sunday in Abuja.

ECOWAS had given Niger a week from Sunday to reinstate Bazoum or face harder sanctions.

The regional body imposed sanctions on the coup leaders with Nigeria also cutting electricity supplies and closing its borders with the West African nation.

After a closed-door session on Saturday, Senate President Godswill Akpabio read the resolutions of the red chamber.

Akpabio said the senate condemned the coup and commended Tinubu and other heads of state for their prompt response and the positions taken on the situation.

He said the senate advised Tinubu to encourage other leaders of ECOWAS to deploy diplomatic options in addressing the situation in Niger.

“The senate recognises that Tinubu via his correspondence has not asked for the approval of the parliament of this senate to go to war as erroneously suggested in some quarters,” Akpabio said.

“Rather, Mr President has expressed a wish to respectfully solicit the support of the national assembly in the successful implementation of the resolutions of the ECOWAS as outlined in the said communication.

“The senate calls on the president of the federal republic of Nigeria as the chairman of ECOWAS to further encourage other leaders of ECOWAS to strengthen political and diplomatic options and other means intending to resolve the political impasse in Niger Republic.

“The national assembly to the ECOWAS under the leadership of Tinubu in resolving the political situation in Niger and returning the country to democratic governance in the nearest future.”

Akpabio added that the leadership of the senate is mandated to further engage with the president on how best to resolve the issue “given the existing cordial relationship between Nigeriens and Nigerians”.

“Finally, the senate calls on the ECOWAS parliament to rise to the occasion by equally condemning this coup and also positing solutions to resolving this compass as soon as possible,” he added.

The Cable

New military government seeks help from Wagner mercenaries against ECOWAS intervention, according to a report.

Niger’s coup generals have asked for help from the Russian mercenary group Wagner as the deadline nears for it to release the country’s removed president or face possible military intervention by the West African regional bloc, a news report says.

The request came during a visit by a coup leader – General Salifou Mody – to neighbouring Mali, where he made contact with someone from Wagner, Wassim Nasr, a journalist and senior research fellow at the Soufan Center, told The Associated Press.

Three Malian sources and a French diplomat confirmed the meeting first reported by France 24, Nasr added.

“They need [Wagner] because they will become their guarantee to hold onto power,” he said, adding the private military company is considering the request.

Niger’s military government faces a Sunday deadline set by the regional bloc known as ECOWAS to release and reinstate the democratically elected President Mohamed Bazoum, who has described himself as a hostage.

Defence chiefs from ECOWAS members finalised an intervention plan on Friday and urged militaries to prepare resources after a mediation team sent to Niger on Thursday was not allowed to enter or meet with military government leader General Abdourahmane Tchiani.

After his visit to Mali, run by a sympathetic military government, Mody warned against military intervention, promising Niger would do what it takes not to become “a new Libya”, Niger’s state television reported.

Niger has been seen as the West’s last reliable counterterrorism partner in a region where coups have been common in recent years. Military leaders have rejected former coloniser France and turned towards Russia.

Wagner operates in a handful of African countries, including Mali, where human rights groups have accused its forces of deadly abuses.

‘It’s all a sham’

Some residents rejected the military’s takeover.

“It’s all a sham,” said Amad Hassane Boubacar, who teaches at the University of Niamey.

“They oppose foreign interference to restore constitutional order and legality. But on the contrary, they are ready to make a pact with Wagner and Russia to undermine the constitutional order … They are prepared for the country to go up in flames so that they can illegally maintain their position.”

Niger’s military leaders have been following the playbook of Mali and neighbouring Burkina Faso, also run by military governments, but they are moving faster to consolidate power, Nasr said.

“[Tchiani] chose his path so he’s going full-on it without wasting time because there’s international mobilisation.”

One question is how the international community will react if Wagner comes in, he said. When Wagner came into Mali at the end of 2021, the French military was removed soon afterwards after years of partnership. Wagner was later designated a “terrorist” organisation by the United States, and international partners might have a stronger reaction now, Nasr said.

And much more is at stake in Niger, where the US and other partners have poured hundreds of millions of dollars of military assistance to combat the region’s growing security threat.

No details on possible intervention

It’s unclear what a regional intervention would look like, when it would begin, or whether it would receive support from Western forces. Niger’s military government has called on the population to watch for spies, and self-organised defence groups have mobilised at night to monitor cars and patrol the capital.

“If the junta were to dig in its heels and rally the populace around the flag – possibly even arming civilian militias – the intervention could morph into a multifaceted counterinsurgency that ECOWAS would not be prepared to handle,” said a report by the Hudson Institute.

While some in Niger are bracing for a fight, others are trying to cope with travel and economic sanctions imposed by ECOWAS after the coup that have closed land and air borders with ECOWAS countries and suspended commercial and financial transactions with them.

Residents said the price of goods is rising and there’s limited access to cash.

“We are deeply concerned about the consequences of these sanctions, especially their impacts on the supply of essential food products, pharmaceuticals, medical equipment, petroleum products and electricity,” said Sita Adamou, president of Niger’s Association to Defend Human Rights.

Aljazeera

Algeria is categorically against any military intervention in Niger, Ennahar TV said late on Saturday citing President Abdelmadjid Tebboune.

"A military intervention could ignite the whole Sahel region and Algeria will not use force with its neighbours," Tabboune said in an interview with local media.

Reuters

A West African bloc has given Niger’s military junta until Sunday to step down or face a possible military intervention. If such an operation were to happen, NatSec Daily has been told to expect one of two general outcomes.

The first is the “shit show” scenario, as described by former NSC director for African affairs CAMERON HUDSON. He argues that military moves by the Economic Community of West African States would lead to a conflict between inexperienced and relatively weak forces.

“ECOWAS has no recent experience undertaking this kind of operation. It’s not something they even train for,” Hudson added, noting that a country like Nigeria is still struggling to defeat the Boko Haram terrorist group inside its borders. There’s also the possibility of Mali and Burkina Faso intervening to help — not combat — the coup’s perpetrators. “An intervention now has all the makings of a regional war,” Hudson said.

The second scenario is still bad, but not as dire. J. PETER PHAM, a former top U.S. diplomat for the Sahel now at the Atlantic Council, contends the junta-aligned countries have militaries that would struggle even getting to Niger. Burkina Faso’s forces have seen nearly two-thirds of the nation’s territory taken over by insurgents, while Mali’s military only has one transport plane, he said.

Both those nations, per Pham, “will have trouble fighting their way out of the bag that they’re in.”

What he suspects instead is ECOWAS aims to pressure Niger’s military to root out the junta. After all, the coup leaders and their followers are a fraction of the Nigerien forces, meaning that the rest of the military would outnumber and overpower those holding ousted president MOHAMED BAZOUM — although doing so without endangering his life and family is another matter.

“The best armed and trained units are the special force battalions the U.S. has trained and the French have trained,” said Pham, adding many of them aren’t in the capital, Niamey, because they’re out in the countryside fighting insurgents and terrorist groups.

KEN OPALO, a Georgetown University professor of African politics, said ECOWAS should prioritize non-military options. “They’d be much better off working on a face-saving off ramp through an African Union process,” he said, such as defining a fixed timeline for the return of civilian rule. “It’s a terrible situation and there are simply no good options on the table.”

The Biden administration is signaling it doesn’t want to see an uptick in fighting, though it considers any questions about a future intervention as a hypothetical scenario. “Nobody wants to see anybody get hurt, and certainly we don’t want to see any resolution of this that would result in violence of any kind,” NSC spokesperson JOHN KIRBY told reporters Thursday.

There are growing worries about what’s to come. Paris announced today that it has evacuated more than 1,000 French and other nationals from Niger. On Wednesday, the U.S issued an ordered departure for much of its embassy personnel in Niamey, with the State Department saying the mission had “suspended routine services.”

The Biden administration has yet to call the military takeover a coup, claiming there’s still room for diplomacy to put Bazoum back in charge. Just today, on Niger’s independence day no less, President JOE BIDEN said “the Nigerien people have the right to choose their leaders…I call for President Bazoum and his family to be immediately released, and for the preservation of Niger’s hard-earned democracy.”

Bazoum’s been on the phone with many foreign officials, including several calls with Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN. Still, the Biden administration hasn’t announced any such call by the president.

Politico

Nnamdi Kanu, leader of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), has directed Southeast residents to set aside Mondays as empowerment days in the region.

Spokesperson of IPOB, Emma Powerful, disclosed this in a statement on Saturday.

Powerful said Kanu gave the directive as a follow-up to his earlier cancellation of the controversial sit-at-home usually enforced by a faction of the IPOB on Mondays.

He did not, however, mention when the IPOB leader gave the directive.

“Economic Empowerment Day connotes a day set aside for mass mobilisation of Biafrans to devote their resources and means towards reversing the sharp and unprecedented decline in the economic needs of our people occasioned by the prolonged sit-at-home,” Powerful said.

Continuing, he said, “During this exercise, Biafrans are encouraged to embark on massive deployment of their resources for their empowerment of the educationally disadvantaged and poverty-ridden population of our people.

“Through education, employment, health services, a sense of identity and community, our people and indeed, the Eastern region, can begin to thrive and grow.”

The IPOB spokesperson said the decision was in response to an urgent need to reclaim the lost glory of the Southeast residents by empowering them with the resources they need to live beyond “mere subsistence.”

He pointed out that the people had long been noted for their hard work, resilience and greatness.

“Also, the implication of this Economic Empowerment Day, is that Biafrans are expected to devote significant time to adhere to their routine calendar schedule template strictly and uninterruptedly to make up for humongous time lost to the activities of misguided enforcers of the unsanctioned Monday sit-at-home order,” he added.‘Nnamdi Kanu’s letter authentic’

Kanu in late July, via a handwritten letter given to Aloy Ejimakor, his special counsel, had ordered Simon Ekpa, a pro-Biafran agitator, to stop issuing sit-at-home orders in the region.

But Ekpa, who has been issuing sit-at-home orders in the region, described the letter as “fake,” and maintained that the civil action would go on until Kanu speaks to him directly in Finland, a North European country, where he (Ekpa) resides.

Speaking on the issue, Powerful stressed that the handwritten letter from Kanu ordering the cancellation of all sit-at-home orders in the region was authentic and that it was not written “under any duress, compulsion or influence of any kind.”

The IPOB spokesperson said the State Security Service cannot influence the IPOB leader on what to do or say.

“Anybody questioning the authenticity of the handwritten letter suspending further Monday sit-at-home is patently dishonest and not worthy to be called a Biafran.

“Anybody who claims to know Kanu will also know that nobody will be courageous enough to coerce him to do anything that will jeopardise the restoration of Biafra,” he stated.

PT

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Ukraine seeks progress towards peace at Saudi Arabia talks

Senior officials from some 40 countries including the U.S., China and India held talks in Saudi Arabia on Saturday that Kyiv and its allies hope will lead to agreement on key principles for a peaceful end to Russia's war in Ukraine.

The two-day meeting is part of a diplomatic push by Ukraine to build support beyond its core Western backers by reaching out to Global South countries that have been reluctant to take sides in a conflict that has hit the global economy.

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who hopes to agree principles for a summit of global leaders that he is seeking on the issue in the autumn, said it would be important to hold bilateral talks on the sidelines of the Jeddah meeting.

Speaking on Saturday, he acknowledged there were differences among the countries attending, but said the rules-based international order must be restored.

"Different continents, different political approaches to world affairs. But all are united by the priority of international law," he said.

Russia is not attending, though the Kremlin has said it will keep an eye on the talks. Ukrainian, Russian and international officials say there is no prospect of direct peace talks between Ukraine and Russia at present, with the war raging.

A European Union official said there would be no joint statement after the meeting, but that the Saudis would present a plan for further talks, with working groups to discuss issues such as global food security, nuclear safety and prisoner releases.

The official described the talks as positive, and said there was "agreement that respect of territorial integrity and (the) sovereignty of Ukraine needs to be at the heart of any peace settlement".

The world's top oil exporter Saudi Arabia, which has maintained contacts with both sides since Russia invaded Ukraine last February, has played a role in convening countries that did not join earlier meetings, Western diplomats have said.

China, which did not attend a previous round of talks in Copenhagen, is sending Special Envoy for Eurasian Affairs Li Hui, Beijing said on Saturday. China has kept close economic and diplomatic ties with Russia since the conflict began and has rejected calls to condemn Moscow.

"We have many disagreements and we have heard different positions, but it is important that our principles are shared," he said.

Indian National Security Adviser Shri Ajit Doval has also arrived in Jeddah for the talks, the Indian embassy in Riyadh said on social media on Saturday. Like China, India has kept close ties with Russia and refused to condemn it for the war. It has ramped up imports of Russian oil.

Of the other countries in the BRICS group with Russia, China and India, South Africa has sent President Cyril Ramaphosa's security adviser Sydney Mufamadi, and Brazil's top foreign policy adviser, Celso Amorim, will join by videolink.

SAUDI DIPLOMACY

Western officials and analysts said Saudi diplomacy had been important in securing China's presence at the talks.

Under de facto ruler Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, known as MbS, the kingdom has sought a bigger role on the world stage and has pushed to expand ties with major powers outside the old framework of its relationship with the U.S.

Riyadh has worked with Moscow in recent years on oil market policy and, along with Turkey, it helped mediate a prisoner swap between Ukraine and Russia last year. Zelenskiy attended an Arab League summit in Saudi Arabia last year where MbS voiced readiness to help mediate in the war.

Saudi Arabia has also built a closer relationship with China over the past year, giving an effusive welcome to Chinese President Xi Jinping when he visited Riyadh in December, and seeking to join the China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

In March, Beijing brokered a resumption of ties between Saudi Arabia and its arch regional foe Iran.

Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, Middle East fellow at Rice University's Baker Institute, said China's attendance sent a signal of support for Saudi Arabian diplomacy that built on other areas of recent Chinese-Saudi cooperation.

"Chinese participation in the talks is a boost to the Saudi narrative that their convening power and ability to leverage relationships is qualitatively different to Western parties," he said.

However, China's presence does not indicate it will ultimately agree to the results sought by Ukraine and its allies, said Yun Sun, director of the China programme at the Stimson Center in Washington.

"Participating in a meeting only suggests the willingness to listen and discuss. It by no means suggests that China has to agree to anything in the end," Sun said.

** Ukraine hits Russian tanker with sea drone near Crimea Bridge

A Ukrainian sea drone full of explosives struck a Russian fuel tanker overnight near a bridge linking Russia to annexed Crimea, the second such attack in 24 hours, both sides said on Saturday.

No one was hurt, but the Crimean Bridge and ferry transport were suspended for several hours, according to Russian-installed officials in Crimea, which Moscow seized from Ukraine in 2014.

A Ukrainian intelligence source told Reuters that the drone with 450 kg of explosives hit the SIG vessel as it transported fuel for the Russian military in Ukrainian territorial waters.

"The tanker was well loaded with fuel, so the 'fireworks' were seen from afar," the source said, of the joint operation by Ukraine's navy and security service.

Kyiv says destroying Russia's military infrastructure inside Russia or on Russian-controlled territory in Ukraine is crucial to its counteroffensive after the February 2022 invasion.

Another sea drone attack on Russia's navy base at Novorossiysk damaged a warship on Friday, the first time the Ukrainian navy had projected its power so far from its shores.

And a Ukrainian government agency warned on Saturday that six Russian Black Sea ports - Anapa, Novorossiysk, Gelendzhik, Tuapse, Sochi, and Taman - were in "war risk area".

FUEL FOR TROOPS

The SIG tanker had been supplying oil to Russian troops in Syria, according to Vladimir Rogov, a Russian-appointed official in Ukraine's southeastern region of Zaporizhzhia.

The United States imposed sanctions on the tanker and its owner, St. Petersburg-based Transpetrochart, in 2019 for helping provide jet fuel in Syria.

Vasyl Malyuk, head of Ukraine's SBU security service, did not directly confirm the latest attack but said any incident with Russian ships or the Crimean bridge was "an absolutely logical and efficient step towards the enemy".

"Moreover, such special operations are conducted in the territorial waters of Ukraine and are completely legal," Malyuk said on the Telegram messaging app.

Russia's Novorossiysk Maritime Rescue Coordination Centre was quoted by the RIA news agency as saying there was no fuel spill from the SIG, as the ship had been carrying only technical ballast. Recovery work was underway with two tugboats nearby.

Rogov posted an audio clip on Telegram in which the SIG requested a tow. He also posted pictures of what he described as shattered fixtures and equipment inside the vessel.

"The SIG tanker ... received a hole in the engine room near the waterline on the starboard side, preliminarily as a result of a sea drone attack," Russia's Federal Marine and River Transport agency said in a statement on Telegram.

The Moscow-installed authorities in Crimea said the bridge, which was completed by Russia in 2018 and has come under serious attack twice in the war, was not targeted.

** Russia official blames Ukraine cluster shells for Donetsk fire

A university building in Donetsk in eastern Ukraine was in flames late on Saturday following Ukrainian shelling, the Russian-installed mayor of the city said.

"As a result of the latest attack on Donetsk, the first building of the university of economics and trade is on fire," Alexei Kulemzin, the Russian-installed mayor, said on Telegram.

He said preliminary information indicated the cause of the fire was an attack by Ukrainian forces using cluster munitions. Reuters could not verify details of his account.

Ukraine, which received supplies of cluster munitions from the United States last month, has vowed to use them only to dislodge concentrations of enemy soldiers.

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Medvedev hints at more attacks on Western Ukraine

Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has suggested more devastating attacks on Ukraine’s western regions in response to a string of drone strikes against Moscow’s ships and civilian vessels in the Black Sea.

Medvedev, who is deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council, made his comments on Saturday after a sea drone damaged an oil tanker off the coast of Crimea. The ex-president blamed the attack on Ukraine, saying it was meant to trigger an environmental disaster in the Black Sea, and he called for Moscow to follow up on recent port attacks that came in response to last month’s Ukrainian drone strike on the Crimean Bridge.

“Scumbags and freaks understand only cruelty and force,” Medvedev said in a social media post. “Apparently, the strikes on Odessa, Izmail and other places were not enough for them.”

He also suggested that Russian retaliation for the drone attacks would eliminate any chance of reviving the grain deal that had enabled Ukraine to ship its grain exports through the Black Sea. “If the Kiev scum want to create an ecological disaster in the Black Sea, they should get one on the part of their territory that will soon fall to Poland and that will stink for centuries after that. That will be the final judgment on the grain deal,”Medvedev warned.

Ukrainian sea drones also targeted civilian ships and their Russian naval escorts earlier this week, and attacked the Black Sea Fleet base at Novorossiysk on Friday. Kiev also has stepped up aerial drone attacks on civilian targets in Russian territory, including Moscow’s financial district.

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu has claimed that Ukrainian drone attacks on civilian targets are attempts to distract from Kiev’s faltering counteroffensive in the Donbass region.

** Zelensky fears peace pressure from West – NYT

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky is reportedly worried that Western nations may ramp up pressure to negotiate a peace agreement with Russia, ending a bloody conflict that has killed tens of thousands of Kiev’s troops in just the past two months.

“As furious battles raged across the front lines of Europe’s bloodiest war in decades, Zelensky told his ambassadors on Wednesday that things would grow even more difficult as pressure was likely to build in the coming months to find a negotiated path to peace,” the New York Times reported on Saturday.

The Ukrainian president described Wednesday’s gathering in Kiev with diplomats as an “emergency strategy session” heading into this weekend’s Ukraine peace summit in Saudi Arabia, the newspaper said. “The meeting is the starting point of what is expected to be a major Ukrainian diplomatic push in the coming months to try to undercut Russia.”

Zelensky told his ambassadors that they must use every available tool – “official and unofficial, institutional and media, cultural diplomacy and the power of ordinary human sincerity” – to convince both allies and neutral nations that “the only road to a lasting peace is complete Russian defeat,”according to the report.

However, many of the nations attending the summit in Saudi Arabia have resisted US pressure to take sides in the crisis, seeing the conflict as a “contest between superpowers” in which they want no part. “This is not only a conflict between Russia and Ukraine,” said Celso Amorim, an adviser to Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Speaking remotely on Saturday at the Saudi-hosted summit, he added: “This is also a chapter in the longstanding rivalry between Russia and the West.”

Russian officials have argued that Kiev’s Western backers are only prolonging the bloodshed in Ukraine by continuing to send billions of dollars’ worth of weapons to the former Soviet republic. More than 43,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed since Kiev began a counteroffensive in the Donbass region in early June, the Russian Defense Ministry said on Friday.

Russian and Ukrainian negotiators were reportedly near a peace deal at talks hosted by Türkiyein March 2022, a little more than a month after the conflict began. “After we pulled troops back from Kiev, as we promised,”Ukrainian leaders “threw it all away, into the garbage dump of history,”Russian President Vladimir Putin said at a meeting with African leaders in July.

Reuters/RT

It all began as a roadside rumour before blasting its way to the front pages of Nigerian newspapers, and the talking points of the electronic media. Now it has become a news item discussed with torment and trepidation by many Nigerians still struggling to cope with the political dysfunctionalities, socio-economic problems, and numerous anxieties of present Nigerian life.

The ‘subject of discourse’ is the coup d’etat in Niger, our neighbour to the north, and the present plan by ECOWAS, under your leadership, to force the restoration of democratic governance in that beleaguered country. What has got many Nigerians talking – and wondering – is the inclusion of military action in the cocktail of options under consideration by the ECOWAS leaders. And this is also the cause of my worry and grave apprehension. Military force to reverse the occurrence of rule by force in West Africa, with you, President Bola Tinubu, the current ECOWAS president,  as leader of the pack? I am both astonished and alarmed that a group of people, least of all, leaders of the West African region would contemplate the viability of military intervention as the solution to the present problem in Niger.

Dear President Tinubu, did you and your colleagues think long and deep before including this option? Did you contemplate the hazards of the action and the possible catastrophe of the consequence? Given the historical, geographical, cultural, and economic proximity between Nigeria and Niger (a Siamese closeness inherent even in the very nomenclature), how can you do this without devastating collateral damage to Nigeria, especially its northern flanks? In a region where national borders only exist on a misbegotten colonial  map, how will your ECOWAS bullet select its casualties without including Nigerians, the people you have sworn to serve and protect? Will the present human traffic and trade routes between the two countries still continue after the ‘war’? What about the possibility of a multiple-front war, considering the solidarity already announced by a ‘league’ of other countries in the region, such as Mali and Chad and Burkina Faso? To how many fronts will the ECOWAS forces train their guns?

For the avoidance of doubt, let no one take my position in this brief intervention as toleration or condonement of military coups and their barbarous assault on human freedom. As a Nigerian victim of about half a dozen coups d’etat in a single lifetime, I know first-hand how brutal soldier-despots are, and how drastically they deplete our very humanity. This is why I believe military juntas have no place in a civilised polity. This is why I also believe and affirm that genuine democracy is the sure antidote to military misrule – a democracy engendered and sustained by respect for human dignity, human and environmental rights, rule of law, liberty, unvarnished  integrity of the electoral  process, holistic equity, and the right to life that is full, free, and abundant. These virtues are the true and efficacious coup-killers. Not military-contra-military interventions and their thoughtless prosecutions and ceaseless carnage.

So, Mr President, go back to the drawing board – you and your ECOWAS colleagues. Think hard. Think well. Think up whatever measures could be devised to restore genuine, lasting democracy by getting the military dictators back to their barracks. Probe the cause, course, and symptoms of the present resurgence of military coups in West Africa. Find a cure for this pandemic. More important, find a cure for the plague of political and socio-economic injustices responsible for the inevitability of its recurrence. Remember the present brutish anarchy in Libya and the countless repercussions of the destabilisation of that once blooming country for the West African region.

Military action in Niger may only end up complicating the Nigerien fiasco. Remember: a little fire often spirals into an uncontrollable blaze. You may know the beginning of a war; but you can never foretell how it will end. A powerful man may start a war, but it takes a hero to devise a dignifying way of avoiding it.

Right now, the Nigerian people have more than enough to worry about, with so much hunger in the land and so many Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) from all manner of bandit attacks. We cannot afford to add war refuges to these crowds. You have promised to reduce the people’s burden. Avoid taking any action that will only add to it.

Domestic security is the inevitable foundation for foreign campaigns. Let your charity begin at home, though  we know it must never end there.

Your Concerned Compatriot,

Niyi Osundare.

One of Africa’s foremost poets and academics, Niyi Osundareis Emeritus Distinguished Professor of English, University of New Orleans.