WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Zelenskiy visits troops in the northeast, holds security meetings

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Tuesday discussed the battlefield situation with commanders in Ukraine's northeast, where he visited troops on one of the hottest fronts of the war with Russia.

In his nightly video address, Zelenskiy said he had been near Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city, and heard from the commander of Ukraine's ground forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi, on defence in the area and on offensive actions further south, near Bakhmut.

"It is extremely important that Kharkiv, despite everything, not only holds on, but helps to keep our entire east strong," Zelenskiy said.

In a post on X, formerly known as Twitter, the president also said he met brigades fighting near the northeastern towns of Kupiansk and Lyman, recaptured by Ukrainian forces late last year. The area has been subject to Russian attacks in recent months.

"We met with brigade and battalion commanders to discuss the battlefield situation, pressing issues, and needs," he said. Photos showed him meeting soldiers in a poorly lighted room.

The president discussed preparation for winter in Kharkiv as Ukraine expects an escalation of Russia's strikes on energy infrastructure. Kharkiv, a major industrial centre, has not fallen into Russian hands since the Kremlin invasion in February 2022.

Zelenskiy, who has regularly visited troops, also handed out awards and urged troops to keep their motivation high.

The president's office also posted video footage showing Zelenskiy shaking hands with troops, inspecting equipment supplied by Western countries, sitting at a long table with commanders and being briefed by an officer standing in front of a map.

Since Kyiv began a counteroffensive in the east and south four months ago, Ukrainian troops have made only gradual gains, but Zelenskiy has rejected foreign criticism that the advance has been marred by poor military strategy.

** Ukraine troops advance on southern front - general

One of Ukraine's top generals said on Tuesday that his forces were advancing in the south, one of two theatres of their counteroffensive to evict Russian occupation forces, but offered few details of their gains.

"In the Tavria sector, there has been an advance by the defence forces," General Oleksander Tarnavskyi said in a post on Telegram, using the military's name for the southern front.

Tarnavskyi, head of the southern group of forces, said troops had conducted 1,198 assignments in the past 24 hours, with Russian forces sustaining losses of 261 men and a further 10 being taken prisoner.

The General Staff of the Ukrainian armed forces, in its evening report, said offensive operations were proceeding in the east and south, with little elaboration.

It reported Russian air strikes in southeastern Zaporizhzhia region, the focus of the drive south to the Sea of Azov. The report also said Ukrainian forces had repelled Russian attacks in areas of Donetsk region already recaptured by Kyiv and around the long-contested town of Maryinka further west.

Military analysts have spoken in the past week of Ukrainian forces consolidating positions around the village of Verbove on their southward drive.

The drive in the east has focused on recovering land around the devastated town of Bakhmut, seized by Russian forces in May after months of heavy fighting.

The Institute for the Study of War, in an assessment issued on Monday, said Ukrainian forces had made marginal gains in the area straddling Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions.

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

No additional mobilization, Kadyrov's role in special op: what Shoigu's report was about

There are no plans for additional mobilization in Russia as the armed forces have enough personnel to carry out the special military operation, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu said in a conference call.

He also pointed out that the Russian military had significantly weakened the combat strength of the Ukrainian troops, thanked the peacekeepers stationed in Nagorno-Karabakh and praised Chechnya and its head Ramzan Kadyrov for their contributions during the special operation.

TASS summarized the main points of the minister's speech.

On conscription and mobilization plans

Fall conscription will be carried out according to plan and within the timeframe established by law, with 130,000 people being drafted to the armed forces. "I once again draw attention to the fact that no conscripts, including those from new regions, will be sent to the combat zone."

"The General Staff has no plans for additional mobilization. The armed forces have the necessary number of servicemen to carry out the special military operation."

Since the beginning of the year, more than 335,000 people have signed up to serve in the military or in volunteer formations. "Just in September, more than 50,000 citizens signed contracts."

On special military operation

The Russian military repulsed all Ukrainian attacks in the Soledar-Bakhmut area, as well as attempts to break through the defense in the area of Verbovoye and Rabotino in the Zaporozhye area: "Through active actions, our troops have significantly weakened the combat potential of the enemy and inflicted serious damage on it."

"Our fighters are acting bravely and resolutely, showing true heroism." Since June 1 alone, 57 associations, formations and military units have received the honorary title of guard units, 20 have been awarded medals, and in the most prestigious units 50-90% of the servicemen have received state awards.

On Kadyrov

"I would like to make special mention of the Chechen Republic and its head Ramzan Akhmatovich Kadyrov. <...> The units under the command of Hero of Russia Apty Alaudinov have proved worthy during the special military operation."

In total, three motorized rifle regiments and three battalions were formed in Chechnya, and after training at the Russian Special Forces University in Gudermes, more than 14,500 men were sent to the war zone.

On Nagorno-Karabakh

Russian peacekeepers continued to perform their duties when the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh escalated, and through their mediation the sides managed to agree on a full ceasefire.

The military organized the evacuation of more than 98,000 civilians, including 32,000 children, to Armenia and ensured the delivery of almost 300 tons of humanitarian aid.

"I thank our guys - Russian peacekeepers - for their selfless and professional actions, which helped to avoid further casualties."

On military medicine

Medical support for the Russian military in the special military operation zone is "well organized," and first aid on the battlefield is provided "as a rule, in the first minutes after someone is wounded."

More than 98% of the wounded in the Russian armed forces recover. The mortality rate in hospitals is 0.43% and continues to decrease.

Reuters/Tass

Both pro- and anti-Tinubu news outlets and blogs are selectively reporting the documents that Chicago State University handed over to former Vice President Atiku Abubakar yesterday. Here are 6 non-partisan tidbits I discovered from poring over them:

1. Chicago State University’s Office of the Registrar affirmed that Bola A. Tinubu indeed attended the university “from August 1977 through June 1979” and was “awarded a Bachelor of Science in Business Administration with Honors on June 22, 1979.”

The registrar also swore to this under oath. The penalty for lying under oath in America can be steep. It is punishable by up to 10 years in prison.

This information is consistent with my September 2, 2023, column titled, “Tinubu Definitely Graduated from Chicago State University.”

2. The certificate (we call it “diploma” in the US) that Tinubu submitted to INEC is inconsistent with the certificates CSU issued in 1979 and subsequently, indicating that Tinubu forged his. (In the US, diplomas are mere ceremonial documents that most employers don’t ask for. Transcripts directly from universities are the usual ways to verify attendance and graduation.)

Although he did legitimately graduate from Chicago State University in 1979, he obviously lost his certificate and, instead of applying for a replacement, decided to forge it.

That strikes me as mysterious self-harm. It costs only $26 to get a replacement diploma from CSU. But it takes between eight and 10 weeks to receive it after filling out the Diploma Replacement Order Form.

My guess is that, in the typical last-minute, fire-brigade approach to things among Nigerian elites, Tinubu didn’t plan ahead and didn't have enough time to apply for his replacement diploma from CSU to meet INEC's deadline and decided to visit Lagos’ infamous “Oluwole” for a counterfeit replacement.

3. The Southwest College transcript that Tinubu used to get admitted to Chicago State University belongs to a female. I had questioned the authenticity of the transcript because of the many errors in it, such as the date and social security number. We await what CSU has to say about this.

This reality, though, seems to validate uncorroborated but long-standing whispers from the grapevine that Tinubu, who was allegedly born Lamidi Amoda [Yoruba Muslim domestication of Abdulhamid Ahmed] Sangodele in Osun State’s Iragbiji, stole the identity of a female Bola Adekunle Tinubu to go to America.

4. Nonetheless, this whisper may be difficult to sustain in light of the fact that Tinubu’s Chicago State University admission letter dated August 23, 1977, was addressed to “Mr. Tinubu,” not Ms. or Miss Tinubu.

Was the “F” in the transcript from Southwest College a clerical error, especially because the social security number and the dates were also clerical errors? Or was there a cover-up somewhere?

Well, we saw from the documents released to Atiku that after accepting his transfer credits from Southwest College (which later became Daley College), CSU required Tinubu to take qualifying exams in English, math, and reading, which he passed. Why did CSU allow a man who presented a transcript that belonged to a woman to take qualifying exams as a man?

Tinubu obviously identified as a man throughout the two years he studied at the school. A Nigerian CSU graduate and classmate of Tinubu’s swore under oath that Tinubu ran for and won election as president of CSU's accounting students’ association. His yearbook photo from 1979 also clearly showed a younger version of Tinubu.

And Tinubu’s handwriting and signature in the June 27, 2022, Consent to Release Student Education Records form, which authorized CSU to release his academic records to one Oluwole Afolabi of 3 Roosevelt Avenue, West Orange, New Jersey, seems to me similar to his handwriting and signatures in his CSU records.

Finally, if he used a woman’s associate degree from Southwest College to gain admission to CSU without having any background in accounting or business administration, his performance at CSU was perplexing. Of the more than 30 courses he took there, he got C’s in only three courses. The rest were A’s and B’s, which earned him honors.

5. The Bola A. Tinubu who applied to Southwest College for an associate degree in 1975 claimed to have attended Government College, Lagos, and presented a 1970 GCE A-level result with grades E in Chemistry and Biology and an F in Physics. The problem is that Government College, Lagos, was established in 1974. So, there’s a chronological conundrum there, which signposts forgery.

The GCE A-level result also shows that “Bola A. Tinubu” took the exam as an HSC student, which used to be a two-year study after 5 years of secondary school education. In other words, the owner of the certificate must have graduated from secondary school at least in 1968.

It’s not clear at the moment if the GCE A-level result is fake or authentic—or if it belongs to the man we know today as President Bola A. Tinubu. My hunch is that it doesn’t belong to him. But this will become clear in the coming days.

6. Tinubu tells the world that he was born on March 29, 1952, but the birthday recorded in his CSU transcript says he was born on March 29, 1954. The space for birthday in the Southwest College transcript he submitted to CSU is blank. So is the record of his secondary school education. These facts added to my previous suspicion that the transcript was probably fake.

If he was born in 1954, it means he was 14 years old when he graduated from high school.

Bonus: Tinubu’s last name was misspelled in a few of the CSU documents. I thought the “THUBV” misspelling in his final graduation record was bad enough until I saw “Tinububu” in one of the documents. Bubu, remember, is Buhari’s nickname among a vast swath of Nigerians. Make of that what you will.

We should all thank VP Atiku Abubakar for his doggedness, which has helped us to get this much clarity about Tinubu’s past.

Richard Branson has developed an unconventional leadership style that has gained a devoted following. His teachings on entrepreneurship and success are numerous, but three in particular reveal his soul and the human aspect of Branson's leadership.

As the billionaire founder of the Virgin Group, Branson recognizes that we all must accept the thing we fear the most – our failures – as the path to success and growth. He also believes we must meet our employees' basic needs to positively impact our businesses.

These principles have proven successful for Branson, and he shares them as his keys to success.

1. Reframe how you look at failure

Branson encourages and even celebrates failure at the Virgin Group. He believes that without trying something new and failing, it's virtually impossible to innovate and grow.

Branson has indeed failed spectacularly over the years, like his Virgin Brides experiment (with Branson donning a wedding gown for publicity) that tanked severely. But he's quick to point out that failure is every part of the entrepreneur's journey:

We've never been 100 percent sure that any of the businesses we've started at Virgin were going to be successful. But over 45 years, we've always stood by our motto: "Screw it, let's do it." Do not be embarrassed by your failures, learn from them and start again. Making mistakes and experiencing setbacks is part of the DNA of every successful entrepreneur, and I am no exception.

2. Communicate with your mouth and ears

Leaders often make the mistake of assuming that communication is about telling their people more information, giving them more directions and commands, and sharing more of their point of view, when all employees really want is to be heard.

For Branson, the best of leaders instinctively understand that communication is a two-way street. He said:

Being a good listener is absolutely critical to being a good leader; you have to listen to the people on the front line. That's a very Virgin trait. Listening enables us to learn from each other, from the marketplace, and from the mistake that must be made in order to get anywhere that is original and disruptive.

Most leaders with a good head on their shoulders understand that their front-line workers know when things are not going right or what needs to be improved. 

"If you listen to them," says Branson, "you can soon improve all those niggly things which turn an average company into an exceptional company."

3. Put your employees ahead of your customers

Branson is a people-first leader, which I admire, and for the right business reasons. He has said in the past that if you take care of your people, your people will take care of your customers, which makes everyone – especially shareholders – happy.

Branson has instilled across the Virgin culture the belief that a company's success starts and ends with having an employee-first mindset. 

If managers engage their employees, they'll become more loyal and produce better work, which leads to a better customer experience and, at the end of the road, more profits. In an interview with Inc. some years back, Branson shared:

If the person who works at your company is 100 percent proud of the job they're doing, if you give them the tools to do a good job, they're proud of the brand, if they were looked after, if they're treated well, then they're gonna be smiling, they're gonna be happy, and therefore the customer will have a nice experience. If the person who's working for your company is not given the right tools, is not looked after, is not appreciated, they're not gonna do things with a smile and therefore the customer will be treated in a way where often they won't want to come back for more. So, my philosophy has always been, if you can put staff first, your customer second, and shareholders third, effectively, in the end, the shareholders do well, the customers do better, and you yourself are happy.

This business practice is increasingly becoming the norm for more progressive and fast-growing companies that value their people, even ahead of their customers. The principle is predicated on a simple formula for success: Take care of the people first, and the business will take care of itself.

Inc

Chicago State University, United States of America has released to former Vice President Atiku Abubakar the academic records of President Bola Tinubu.

The CSU released the documents to Atiku on Monday in compliance with the order of a United States District Court in Northern District of Illinois.

In ordering the CSU to release Tinubu’s academic record, a US district judge dismissed the President’s objection.

The judge ruled: “For the foregoing reasons, the court overrules President Tinubu’s objections to Magistrate Judge Gilbert’s recommended ruling, and therefore, adopts the ruling in full.

“Mr Atiku’s Application is, therefore, granted. In light of the pending Supreme Court of Nigeria deadline, represented to the court as October 5, 2023, and based on CSU’s representations that it is ready to comply with the discovery requests and produce a witness, the court sets an expedited schedule for completion of discovery.

“Respondent CSU is directed to produce all relevant and non-privileged documents in response to Requests for Production Nos. The Rule 30(b)(6) deposition of CSU’s corporate designee must be completed by 5:00 p.m. CDT on Tuesday, October 3, 2023. Given the October 5, 2023, filing deadline before the Supreme Court of Nigeria, the court will not extend or modify these deadlines.”

In the CSU documents, which went viral late Monday night, the institution responded to Atiku’s four requests.

Responding to Atiku’s request for “A true and correct copy of any diploma issued by CSU in 1979 to Mr Tinubu,” the US varsity said: “CSU does not, in the ordinary course, keep copies of student diplomas, and after the diligent search cannot locate a copy of the original diploma it prepared for Mr Tinubu in 1979, hence, has no documents responsive to this request.”

Atiku intends to use the CSU academic record in pursuit of his appeal at the Supreme Court where he is challenging Tinubu’s victory in the February 25 presidential election.

But Tinubu’s legal team has argued that the documents would be of no use at the Supreme Court.

Punch

Presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP) in the February 25 election, Peter Obi, has said while it is not necessary to have the best educational qualifications, a person must be honest and honourable about his or her past to be a great leader.

Obi, a former Governor of Anambra State, who spoke during an interview with the Arise News, said challenging the election of Bola Tinubu as president was part of what built and made a nation.

Obi said, “We are at a point where we are challenging the process, these are part of what makes a nation.

“The process through which people come into office or assume or achieve anything is far more fundamental than what they do thereafter. It is important that people come through the right door and not just jump in through the window.

“As far as I am concerned, again, when it comes to the issue of working, even opposition is part of building the process of having the proper government. What is important is that we challenge the process through which this government came into being, and that challenge is still there.” 

On the issue of paper qualification by Nigerian politicians, Obi said, “I never said anything with regards to improving the degree or doing this. The issue of qualification is the issue of leaders making statements, doing things that are honest and truthful. This is an issue of honour and integrity. It is the foundation on which you build society.”

“If you look at what is happening in Nigeria today, there are so many issues of certification, age, all sorts of one falsification or the other, all over within the leaders. There is no way people can be doing this and be able to do the right things because that means they are living a falsified life, and that is not good morally.”

Daily Trust

The leadership of the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and Trade Union Congress (TUC) has suspended the planned indefinite nationwide strike.

The labour bodies announced the suspension of the planned strike which was scheduled to take off on October 3 (today), after a meeting with representatives of the federal government at the State House, on Monday.

The labour leaders reached the agreement to shelve the planned action in a memorandum of understanding (MoU) issued and signed by Joe Ajaero, NLC president, Festus Osifo, NUC president and representatives of the federal government, Simon Lalong, minister of labour and employment, at the end of the meeting.

The federal government on Sunday called an emergency meeting to engage the unions as a measure to avert the nationwide strike, which is meant to be a protest against the removal of the petrol subsidy and economic hardship in the country.

At the end of the four-hour meeting on Sunday, President Bola Tinubu approved N35,000 as the provisional wage increment for all categories of federal workers.

According to the MoU produced on Monday after the meeting, it was agreed that the payment of N35,000 should commence from September “pending when a new national minimum wage is expected to have been signed into law”.

The parties also agreed that a  minimum wage committee would be inaugurated within one month from the date of the agreement.

It was also agreed that the government would allocate N100 billion for the procurement of high-capacity compressed natural gas (CNG) buses for mass transit in Nigeria.

“Provisions are also being made for an initial 55,000 CNG conversion kits to kick start an auto gas conversion programme, whilst work is ongoing on state-of-the-art CNG stations nationwide. The rollout aims to commence by November with pilots across 10 campuses nationwide,” the MoU reads.

On the issue of outstanding salaries and wages of tertiary Education workers in federal-owned educational institutions, they agreed that the matter should be referred to the ministry of labour and employment for further engagement.

They also agreed that a joint visitation would be made to the refineries to ascertain their rehabilitation status while all parties committed to henceforth abide by the dictates of social dialogue in all future engagements.

” This Memorandum shall be filed with the relevant Court of competent jurisdiction within one (1) week as consent judgment by the Federal,” the document concluded.

The Cable

Price of 12.5kg of Liquefied Natural Gas or cooking gas has increased to N12,500.

Market survey by our correspondent revealed that gas retailers had increased prices of 12.5kg from N10,000 reported towards the end of last month, to around N12,500 in Lagos.

The PUNCH had reported how the President, Nigerian Association of Liquefied Petroleum Gas Marketers, Olatunbosun Oladapo, warned that the price of 12.5kg cooking gas could hit as high as N18,000 by December if the Federal Government did not checkmate the activities of the terminal owners.

However, despite the warning, Olatunbosun told The PUNCH on Monday, that the government was yet to wade into the crisis.

“Yes, the price is now N1,000 per kilogram but the government is yet to step in despite a meeting we had with the NMDPRA,” he said.

According to him, gas retailers still buy 20 metric tons of gas for N14m at the depot.

“We still buy a 20 MT truck at N14m at the depots. And the price of diesel has increased that it now costs N1.7m to take gas from Lagos to the North due to the high cost of diesel. If we sell here at N1,000 per 1kg, just imagine how much it would cost in the Middle East and North.

“What we pray for is for prices to come down so that the ordinary masses can benefit from the decade of gas policy of the Federal Government that seeks to make gas accessible and affordable for the common man.”

The PUNCH had in September, reported how terminal owners increased the price of cooking gas from between N9m-N10m per 20 metric tons to N14m.

As recent as July this year, a 12.5kg cylinder of cooking gas sold for N7,200. The current price of N12,500 marks a 73.6 percent increase in three months.

Punch/NewsScroll

A former Nigerian oil minister appeared in court in London on Monday charged with receiving bribes in the form of cash, luxury goods, flights on private jets and the use of high-end properties in Britain in return for awarding oil contracts.

Diezani Alison-Madueke was Nigeria's minister for petroleum resources between 2010 and 2015, during the administration of former president Goodluck Jonathan.

Nigeria's anti-corruption agency, the EFCC, welcomed the British prosecution and said she was also wanted in her home country to face charges of money-laundering.

Appearing at Westminster Magistrates Court, Alison-Madueke spoke only to give her name, date of birth and address. She was not asked to formally enter a plea, although her lawyer Mark Bowen told the court she would plead not guilty.

She is the second high-profile Nigerian politician to face prosecution in Britain in recent years, following James Ibori, a former state governor who was convicted of fraud and money-laundering in 2012 and received a 13-year jail sentence.

Nigeria is Africa's top oil producer but it suffers from systemic corruption in the political class which has hampered development and prevented its oil wealth from benefitting wider society.

Britain, Nigeria's former colonial ruler, has long been a destination of choice for affluent members of the Nigerian political elite seeking to enjoy the benefits of their wealth.

Alison-Madueke was arrested in London in 2015, shortly after stepping down as minister, and was charged in August with six bribery offences. She has spent the past eight years on police bail, living in St John's Wood, an expensive area of London.

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The charges against her, read out in court, all related to events alleged to have taken place in London.

PRIVATE SCHOOL FEES

Prosecutor Andy Young said she was alleged to have accepted a wide range of advantages in cash and in kind from people who wanted to receive or continue to receive the award of oil contracts which he said were worth billions of dollars in total.

The advantages included a delivery of 100,000 pounds ($121,620) in cash, the payment of private school fees for her son, and the use and refurbishment of several luxurious properties in London and in the English countryside.

They also included the use of a Range Rover car, payment of bills for chauffeur-driven cars, furniture, and purchases from the upmarket London department store Harrods and from Vincenzo Caffarella, which sells Italian decorative arts and antiques.

District Judge Michael Snow granted Alison-Madueke bail but imposed terms including an 11 p.m. to 6 a.m. curfew, an electronic tag to be worn at all times and a 70,000-pound surety to be paid before she could leave the court building.

Her next court appearance will be at Southwark Crown Court, which deals with serious criminal cases, on Oct. 30.

Nigeria's Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) said it had obtained an arrest warrant for Alison-Madueke and initiated extradition proceedings. "She will soon have her day in our courts," it said in a statement.

Britain's Crown Prosecution Service and National Crime Agency did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the EFCC statement and on how any extradition request would affect the criminal case in London.

Reuters

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Leaked US strategy on Ukraine sees corruption as the real threat

Biden administration officials are far more worried about corruption in Ukraine than they publicly admit, a confidential U.S. strategy document obtained by POLITICO suggests.

The “sensitive but unclassified” version of the long-term U.S. plan lays out numerous steps Washington is taking to help Kyiv root out malfeasance and otherwise reform an array of Ukrainian sectors. It stresses that corruption could cause Western allies to abandon Ukraine’s fight against Russia’s invasion, and that Kyiv cannot put off the anti-graft effort.

“Perceptions of high-level corruption” the confidential version of the document warns, could “undermine the Ukrainian public’s and foreign leaders’ confidence in the war-time government.”

That’s starker than the analysis available in the little-noticed public version of the 22-page document, which the State Department appears to have posted on its website with no fanfare about a month ago.

The confidential version of the “Integrated Country Strategy” is about three times as long and contains many more details about U.S. objectives in Ukraine, from privatizing its banks to helping more schools teach English to encouraging its military to adopt NATO protocols. Many goals are designed to reduce the corruption that bedevils the country.

The quiet release of the strategy, and the fact that the toughest language was left in the confidential version, underscores the messaging challenge facing the Biden team.

The administration wants to press Ukraine to cut graft, not least because U.S. dollars are at stake. But being too loud about the issue could embolden opponents of U.S. aid to Ukraine, many of them Republican lawmakers who are trying to block such assistance. Any perception of weakened American support for Kyiv also could cause more European countries to think twice about their role.

When it comes to the Ukrainians, “there are some honest conversations happening behind the scenes,” a U.S. official familiar with Ukraine policy said. Like others, the person was granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive issue.

Ukrainian graft has long been a concern of U.S. officials all the way up to President Joe Biden. But the topic was deemphasized in the wake of Russia’s February 2022 full-scale invasion, which Biden has called a real-life battle of democracy against autocracy.

For months, Biden aides stuck to brief mentions of corruption. They wanted to show solidarity with Kyiv and avoid giving fuel to a small number of Republican lawmakers critical of U.S. military and economic aid for Ukraine.

More than a year into the full-scale war, U.S. officials are pressing the matter more in public and private. National security adviser Jake Sullivan, for instance, met in early September with a delegation from Ukrainian anti-corruption institutions.

A second U.S. official familiar with the discussions confirmed to POLITICO reports that the Biden administration is talking to Ukrainian leaders about potentially conditioning future economic aid on “reforms to tackle corruption and make Ukraine a more attractive place for private investment.”

Such conditions are not being considered for military aid, the official said.

A spokesperson for Ukraine’s foreign ministry did not respond to requests for comment. But Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has fired several top defense officials in a recent crackdown on alleged graft — a message to the United States and Europe that he’s listening.

The Integrated Country Strategy is a State Department product that draws on contributions from other parts of the U.S. government, including the Defense Department. It includes lists of goals, timelines for achieving them and milestones that U.S. officials would like to see hit. (The State Department produces such strategies for many countries once every few years.)

A State Department official, speaking on behalf of the department, would not say if Washington had shared the longer version of the strategy with the Ukrainian government or whether a classified version exists.

William Taylor, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, said many ordinary Ukrainians will likely welcome the strategy because they, too, are tired of the endemic corruption in their country.

It’s all fine “as long as it doesn’t get in the way of the assistance we provide them to win the war,” he said.

The document says that fulfilling American objectives for Ukraine includes making good on U.S. promises of equipment and training to help Ukraine’s armed forces fend off the Kremlin’s attacks.

The confidential version also describes U.S. goals such as helping reform elements of Ukraine’s national security apparatus to allow for “decentralized, risk-tolerant approach to execution of tasks” and reduce “opportunities for corruption.”

Although the NATO military alliance is not close to allowing Ukraine to join, the American strategy often cites a desire to make Ukraine’s military adopt NATO standards.

One hoped-for milestone listed in the confidential version is that Ukraine’s Defense Ministry “establishes a professionalized junior officer and non-commissioned officer corps with NATO standard doctrine and principles.”

Even the format and content of Ukrainian defense documents should “reflect NATO terminology,” a confidential section of the strategy says.

One target includes creating a “national level resistance plan.” That could allude to ordinary Ukrainians fighting back if Russia gains more territory. (The State Department official would not clarify that point.)

The U.S. also wants to see Ukraine produce its own military equipment by establishing a “domestic defense industry capable of supporting core needs” as well as an environment that boosts defense information technology start-ups, according to one of the confidential sections.

U.S. officials appear especially concerned about the role of an elite few in Ukraine’s economy.

“Deoligarchization, particularly of the energy and mining sectors, is a core tenet to building back a better Ukraine,” the public part of the strategy declares. One indicator of success, the confidential version states, is that the Ukrainian government “embraces meaningful reforms decentralizing control of the energy sector.”

The United States appears eager to help Ukrainian institutions build their oversight capacities. The goals listed include everything from helping local governments assess corruption risks to reforms in human resources offices.

As one example, the strategy says the U.S. is helping the Accounting Chamber of Ukraine enhance its auditing and related work in part so it can track direct budget support from the United States.

The strategy describes ways in which the United States is helping Ukraine’s health sector, cyber defenses and organizations that battle disinformation. It calls for supporting Ukrainian anti-monopoly efforts and initiatives to spur increased tax revenue for the country’s coffers.

The confidential portion calls for Ukraine’s financial systems to “increase lending to encourage business expansion” and a reduction in the state’s role in the banking sector.

One envisioned milestone for that section is that “Alfa Bank is transparently returned to private ownership.” That appears to be a reference to an institution now known as Sense Bank, which was previously Russian-owned but nationalized by Ukraine.

The U.S. strategy appears intent on ensuring that Ukraine not only retains its orientation toward the West but that it develops special ties with America.

One way Washington believes that will happen is through the English language. The strategy indicates the United States is offering technical and other aid to Ukraine’s education ministry to improve the teaching of English and that it believes offering English lessons can help reintegrate Ukrainians freed from Russian occupation.

U.S. officials also are helping Ukraine build its capacity to prosecute war crimes in its own judicial system. The desired milestones include the selection of more than 2,000 new judges and clearing up a backlog of over 9,000 judicial misconduct complaints.

The strategy also calls for rebuilding the U.S. diplomatic presence in Ukraine, expanding beyond Kyiv to cities such as Lviv, Odesa, Kharkiv and Dnipro.

Due to earlier staff drawdowns spurred by the full-scale Russian invasion, “the embassy remains in crisis mode,” one of the public sections states. (The State Department official would not discuss the current Embassy staffing numbers.)

As they have in past communications reported on by POLITICO, U.S. officials note inventive ways in which the United States is providing oversight of American aid to Ukraine despite facing limitations due to the war. Those efforts have included using an app called SEALR to help track the aid.

** Ukraine confident of broad support as EU ministers convene in Kyiv

EU foreign ministers expressed support for Ukraine during a meeting in Kyiv on Monday, their first in a non-member country, after a pro-Russian candidate won an election in Slovakia and the U.S. Congress left Ukraine war aid out of its spending bill.

Kyiv brushed off concerns that support for its war effort was fading on both sides of the Atlantic, especially in the United States where Congress excluded aid to Ukraine from an emergency bill to prevent a government shutdown.

"We don't feel that the U.S. support has been shattered ... because the United States understands that what is at stake in Ukraine is much bigger than just Ukraine," Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told reporters as he greeted the EU foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell.

The omission of Ukraine from the U.S. spending bill sent pro-Kyiv officials scrambling to find the best way to secure approval for further assistance on top of the $113 billion in security, economic and humanitarian aid the U.S. has provided since Russia invaded in February 2022.

Leaders in the Senate, narrowly controlled by President Joe Biden's fellow Democrats, promised to take up legislation in the coming weeks on continued support. But in the Republican-led House of Representatives, Speaker Kevin McCarthy said he wanted more information from the Biden administration.

White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre urged Congress to act quickly.

As for the election victory of pro-Russian Slovak former Prime Minister Robert Fico, Kuleba said a new leader would still have to form a coalition and it was "too early to judge" the impact on politics there.

Monday's meeting in Kyiv was touted by Borrell as an historic first for the EU but it comes at an awkward time for the Western countries backing Kyiv.

With summer drawing to a close, Ukraine's counteroffensive has failed to produce the victories that Kyiv's allies had hoped to see before mud clogs the treads of donated tanks.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, quoted by his website, said he was sure "Ukraine and the entire free world are capable of winning this confrontation. But our victory depends directly on our cooperation with you."

Borrell told a news briefing with Kuleba the EU remained united in its support for Ukraine. He had proposed an EU spending package for Kyiv of up to 5 billion euros ($5.25 billion) for 2024 which he hoped to have agreed by then.

Kuleba said it would help Ukraine and the EU to have clarity on the judicial aspects of transferring Russian assets frozen in the West to help fund Ukraine's reconstruction.

PREPARING FOR WINTER

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock sought help to prepare Ukraine for winter, including air defence and energy supplies, after Russia bombed energy installations last year.

"Last winter, we saw the brutal way in which the Russian president is waging this war," Baerbock said. "We must prevent this together with everything we have, as far as possible."

Moscow touted the congressional vote in the United States as a sign of increasing division in the West, although the Kremlin said it expected Washington to continue its support for Kyiv.

The omission of aid for Ukraine was "temporary", Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said.

"But we have repeatedly said before that according to our forecasts fatigue from this conflict, fatigue from the completely absurd sponsorship of the Kyiv regime, will grow in various countries, including the United States," he said.

Support for Kyiv has been mixed in the "Global South", prompting Kuleba to make visits to different countries, particularly in Africa.

Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador criticised as "irrational" U.S. military aid to Ukraine and urged Washington to devote more resources to helping Latin American countries.

"...How much have they destined for the Ukraine war? 30 to 50 billion dollars for the war," he told reporters. "Which is the most irrational thing you can have. And damaging."

In Western countries, elections are looming, above all next year in the United States where former President Donald Trump is leading the Republican field in his bid to return to the White House. Several right-wing Trump supporters in Congress have called for a halt to Ukraine aid.

Although most Republican lawmakers still support Kyiv, House speaker McCarthy was forced to rely on Democrats to pass the measure to keep the government open and might need them again to support any bill to fund Ukraine. Right wingers have threatened to try to remove him.

Kuleba said Ukraine had "a very in-depth discussion with both parts of the Congress - Republicans and Democrats", and expected aid to continue.

In Europe, pro-Russian former prime minister Fico won the most votes in the Slovak election and will get a chance to form a government. His campaign had called for "not a single round" of ammunition from Slovakia's reserves to be sent to Ukraine.

"We are not changing that we are prepared to help Ukraine in a humanitarian way," Fico told a news conference. "We are prepared to help with the reconstruction of the state but you know our opinion on arming Ukraine."

Fico was given two weeks to form a government. To do so, he would have to establish a coalition with at least one other party that does not publicly share his position on Ukraine.

Slovakia, a NATO state bordering Ukraine, has taken in refugees. Its outgoing government, has provided a major supply of weapons, notably being among the first to send fighter jets.

($1 = 0.9530 euros)

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Russian army repels 8 Ukrainian attacks in DPR, eliminates over 300 militants — top brass

Russia’s Battlegroup South has repelled eight Ukrainian attacks in the Artyomovsk and Avdeyevka areas, with the enemy’s losses exceeding 300 servicemen, battlegroup Spokesman Georgy Minesashvili told TASS.

"Battlegroup South units have repelled eight attacks by Ukrainian assault groups in the Artyomovsk and Avdeyevka areas. The enemy’s losses amounted to over 300 servicemen, one Krab self-propelled artillery system, a D-20 weapon, two tanks, a mechanized infantry fighting vehicle, two Strela-10 anti-aircraft missile launchers, a signals intelligence station, as well as seven vehicles and eight drones," he said.

Missile forces and artillery attacked three Ukrainian ammunition depots in Krasnogorovka, Belogorovka and Kramatorsk, as well as troops of the 24th mechanized brigade’s unit near Dzerzhinsk, spokesman added.

Battlegroup South with the help of aviation eliminated a hangar with Ukrainian military equipment in the Donetsk area, Minesashvili said.

"Operational-tactical aviation of the group eliminated a hangar with military equipment, army aviation destructed a temporary deployment site of the 110th mechanized and the 79th air assault brigades of the Ukrainian army in Novomikhailovka and Avdeyevka," he said, adding that the teams of Solntsepyok heavy flamethrower systems hit the stronghold of the 54th mechanized brigade of the Ukrainian army near the settlement of Verkhnekamenskoye in the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR).

** US-made armor pierced by regular AK round – Rostec

A new video, released by the Russian defense conglomerate Rostec, has cast doubt over the quality of the military assistance that the US is sending to Ukraine. It shows a bulletproof vest, reportedly taken as a trophy from the battlefield, which showed an “unexpectedly” poor performance during a comparative test.

The TV-show-style footage published on Telegram on Monday was touted as a trial of three ballistic vests that a civilian could obtain with the goal of getting maximum protection while mostly retaining mobility.

The three items put through test shootings were a Chinese product, newly-developed Russian armor, and the American equipment – all more or less corresponding to a Russian Br5 class of protection.

The American vest’s performance took the testers by surprise in a negative way, said journalist and defense industry expert Aleksey Yegorov, who served as the host of the shoot. Unlike the other two items, its chest plate got pierced by a 7.62x39mm shot from a Kalashnikov AK-103 from 15 meters (49 feet) away.

During a later test with a fresh plate, the American vest stopped a 7.62x51mm round. The munition fired was a .308 Winchester – the easy-to-buy hunting round with cartridge dimensions virtually identical to the NATO one. Unlike in the Russian rounds, its bullet did not have a steel core, Rostec explained.

The next two shots were 5.45x39mm rounds fired from a Kalashnikov assault rifle, and one of them pierced the vest too. The host explained that the bullet hit too close to where the .308 bullet landed, with the first impact weakening the plate.

Politico/Reuters/Tass/RT

• The chances of developing dementia increase if you spend the day sedentary 
• Experts say this risk increases the longer you spend at a desk or driving Spending more than 10 hours a day sitting down in front of the TV or driving increases the risk of dementia, a study suggests.  Researchers have discovered the chances of developing the condition increase dramatically among adults who spend the majority of their day engaged in sedentary behaviours.                                   A team from the University of Southern California and the University of Arizona analyzed data on more than 50,000 British adults aged 60 and over.

They wore devices on their wrist for 24 hours a day over the course of a week. These devices monitored activity levels and could distinguish between sitting down and sleeping.

While watching TV or driving are common sedentary behaviors, others can include playing video games, using a computer, sitting while commuting or sitting at a desk at work.

The participants were followed for around six years, during which time 414 were diagnosed with dementia.

Analysis revealed that sitting down for 10 hours or more per day was linked to an increased risk of the disease.

Compared to those who spent closer to nine hours a day sitting down, those who spent 10 hours a day sedentary were 8 per cent more likely to develop dementia.

Meanwhile those who spent 12 hours a day sitting down were 63 per cent more likely to be diagnosed, while those who clocked up 15 sedentary hours a day were three times more likely.

Study author Professor Gene Alexander said: ‘We were surprised to find that the risk of dementia begins to rapidly increase after 10 hours spent sedentary each day, regardless of how the sedentary time was accumulated.

‘This suggests that it is the total time spent sedentary that drove the relationship between sedentary behaviour and dementia risk.

‘Importantly lower levels of sedentary behaviour, up to around 10 hours, were not associated with increased risk.’

The study, published in the journal Jama Network Open, also revealed the way sedentary behaviour is accumulated over the course of the day – for example a long period of sitting down followed by activity, or sitting down interspersed with standing up – had a similar link to dementia.

Professor David Raichlen, who also worked on the study, added: ‘Many of us are familiar with the common advice to break up long periods of sitting by getting up every 30 minutes or so to stand or walk around.

‘We found that once you take into account the total time spent sedentary, the length of individual sedentary periods didn’t really matter.’

What is dementia? 

A global concern 

Dementia is an umbrella term used to describe a range of progressive neurological disorders (those affecting the brain) which impact memory, thinking and behaviour. 

There are many types of dementia, of which Alzheimer’s disease is the most common.

Some people may have a combination of different types of dementia.

Regardless of which type is diagnosed, each person will experience dementia in their own unique way.

Dementia is a global concern but it is most often seen in wealthier countries, where people are likely to live into very old age.

How many people are affected? 

The Alzheimer's Society reports there are more than 900,000 people living with dementia in the UK today. This is projected to rise to 1.6 million by 2040.

Alzheimer's disease is the most common type of dementia, affecting between 50 and 75 per cent of those diagnosed.

In the US, it's estimated there are 5.5 million Alzheimer's sufferers. A similar percentage rise is expected in the coming years.

As a person’s age increases, so does the risk of them developing dementia.

Rates of diagnosis are improving but many people with dementia are thought to still be undiagnosed.

Is there a cure?

Currently there is no cure for dementia.

But new drugs can slow down its progression and the earlier it is spotted, the more effective treatments can be.

Alzheimer’s Society