WESTERN PERSPECTIVE
Russia will try new offensive in Ukraine as early as May, Zelenskiy says
Russia is preparing a new offensive against Ukraine starting in late May or summer, but Kyiv has a clear battlefield plan of its own, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Sunday.
Speaking a day after the second anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Zelenskiy said it was vital for Kyiv and its Western allies to remain united and reiterated that Ukraine's victory depends on continued Western support.
"We will prepare for their assault. Their assault that began on Oct. 8 has not brought any results, I believe. We, for our part, will prepare our plan and follow it," Zelenskiy told reporters in Kyiv.
Zelenskiy said that 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed since February 2022, giving the first official toll in more than a year. The Russian foreign ministry rejected the Ukraine figure as untrue.
Zelenskiy said that troop rotations would be critically important for the war effort and emphasised that Ukraine needed to better prepare its reserve forces.
A New York Times report in August cited U.S. officials as putting the Ukrainian death toll at close to 70,000. The same report said as many as 120,000 Russian troops had died during the war.
The tallies could not be independently verified. Both Russia and Ukraine have often underestimated their military casualties in the war, while exaggerated the losses they claim to have inflicted upon each other.
TIME RUNNING OUT FOR WESTERN SUPPORT
Two years into the war, Moscow's troops bear down along the sprawling 600-mile (960-km) front line in Ukraine's east and south and problems pile up from shortages of artillery shells and the need for longer-range missiles to a lack of fresh troops.
Zelenskiy said he was confident that the U.S. Congress would approve a major new batch of military and financial assistance and that Ukraine needed that decision within a month.
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The Ukrainian war effort depended on Western support, he said, adding that the European Union had only supplied 30% of the 1 million ammunition shells that were promised.
Russia secured its biggest battlefield gains since May 2023 this month as it captured the town of Avdiivka, which Ukrainian troops retreated from to avoid being surrounded.
President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday Russian troops would push fartherinto Ukraine to build on their success in Avdiivka and on Sunday Russian defence ministry said its forces had taken more advantageous positions near the town.
'THERE IS A PLAN'
On Ukraine's battlefield intentions, Zelenskiy said Kyiv had a clear plan to counter Russian forces, but that he would not disclose details that could compromise it.
"There is a plan, the plan is clear, I can't tell you the details," he said.
Kyiv's troops conducted a much-vaunted counteroffensive last year but were unable to pierce Russia's defensive lines.
Zelenskiy said replacing his popular armed forces chief in a dramatic military shake-up this month was part of his military strategy that would remain under wraps.
The Ukrainian leader said earlier that Kyiv's plans for last year's counteroffensive had ended up "on a desk in the Kremlin" before the operation had even begun but did not say how.
Kyiv hopes to hold a summit in Switzerland this spring to discuss its vision for peace with its allies, he said, adding that the peace blueprint would later be presented to Russia.
"I hope it will take place this spring. We must not lose this diplomatic initiative," he said.
** Zelenskiy says 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed since Russia invaded
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Sunday that 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed since Russia's full-scale invasion two years ago, giving the first official figure for more than a year.
Zelenskiy told a news conference in Kyiv that he could not disclose the number of wounded because it would help Russian military planning.
"31,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed in this war. Not 300,000, not 150,000 ... (Russian President Vladimir) Putin is lying there ... But nevertheless, this is a big loss for us."
Ukraine has not put a number to its military losses since the end of 2022, when presidential aide Mykhailo Podolyak said 13,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed since the invasion on Feb. 24.
Battlefield casualties are a highly sensitive subject in a country trying to reform how it mobilises civilians into the army to regenerate its forces after last year's counteroffensive proved unable to break through Russian lines.
A New York Times report in August cited U.S. officials as putting the Ukrainian death toll at close to 70,000. The same report said as many as 120,000 Russian troops had died during the war.
Zelenskiy told reporters that 180,000 Russians had been killed in the fighting.
Russia does not disclose military losses, which it regards as secret. Both sides regularly describe the other's military losses as vast.
The Ukrainian leader also said that tens of thousands of civilians had been killed in the occupied areas of the country during the war. Kyiv says it cannot accurately assess the scale of such losses because it does not have access.
RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE
Ukraine on another retreat in Donbass – media
Ukrainian troops have abandoned the settlement of Lastochkino, a few kilometers west of the strategic city of Avdeevka recently captured by Russian troops, the local outlet Strana reported on Saturday citing Ukraine’s military.
The website cited a Ukrainian volunteer fighting with the neo-Nazi Aidar battalion as saying that units had to withdraw from the area to “avoid the blocking of their logistical routes” and to “save personnel.” The Ukrainian Telegram channel DeepState confirmed the development, wondering where the Ukrainian high command would announce the preparation of a new defensive line.
Several Russian Telegram channels claimed that Moscow’s troops had already entered Lastochkino, posting unverified pictures and a video of soldiers waving a Russian flag in the middle of the devastated settlement.
Neither the Russian nor Ukrainian Defense Ministries have confirmed the reports. However, officials in Moscow said on Saturday that the Russian military “continued to occupy more advantageous… positions” in the Avdeevka sector while repulsing Ukrainian counterattacks.
Moscow announced the capture of Avdeevka last weekend, which has been a frontline city since 2014. It claimed that the Ukrainian retreat had turned into a disorganized rout with heavy losses. Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky called the decision to withdraw “absolutely logical,” insisting that it was necessary to avoid heavier casualties.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday that the capture of Avdeevka was “certainly a success,” adding that it needed to be expanded upon.
The Avdeevka area was previously used by Kiev as a launching ground for attacks on Donetsk, the capital of Russia’s Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR). The Defense Ministry in Moscow previously said that the capture would help protect the latter city from “terrorist attacks by the criminal Kiev regime.”
The DPR, along with three other former Ukrainian regions, overwhelmingly voted to become part of Russia in the autumn of 2022 in public referendums.
Reuters/RT