RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE
Russian victory 'a tragedy' – NATO
Russia’s victory in the conflict with Ukraine would affect NATO’s security as well, the US-led bloc’s secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg told reporters on Friday. NATO will continue to support Kiev with weapons and ammunition to avoid such a “dangerous” outcome, he added.
Washington and its allies and partners are supporting Ukraine not just because they “agreed” to it at various meetings, but also because “it is in our interests to do so,” Stoltenberg said at a joint press conference with German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius in Berlin.
“We have to remember and understand that if [Russian] President [Vladimir] Putin wins in Ukraine, it is a tragedy for Ukrainians but it is also dangerous for us,” Stoltenber said, claiming that a Russian triumph would encourage “authoritarian leaders” to use force and “violate international law” to “get what they want.”
“That will make us more vulnerable,” Stoltenberg said, adding that he was “confident that North America and Europe together will continue to support Ukraine” and that this was the only way to achieve a “negotiated peaceful solution to this conflict.”
“We know that the stronger Ukraine is on the battlefield, the stronger their hand will be at the negotiating table,” said Stoltenberg.
His comments came as the Pentagon warned that military aid for Kiev was about to run dry if American lawmakers did not approve a new funding package for Ukraine.
Kiev has repeatedly ruled out any talks with Moscow, demanding a complete withdrawal of Russian troops from all territories Ukraine claims as its own. Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky reiterated this demand in an interview with Reuters this week, adding that Kiev would continue the fight even without US aid, if need be.
Zelensky has denied reports in some media outlets that Ukraine’s Western backers allegedly encouraged Kiev to engage in peace negotiations with Moscow. “This is not going to happen,” he said last week, during a joint press conference with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
In October 2022, Zelensky signed a decree banning Ukraine from holding any talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Russia has repeatedly signaled its readiness to engage in negotiations with Kiev but has insisted that such talks should take Moscow’s security interests and the “reality on the ground” into account. In the autumn of 2022, four former Ukrainian territories – including the two Donbass republics – officially joined Russia, following a series of referendums.
Kiev declared the votes a “sham” and has sought to reclaim control over the four territories, as well as Crimea, which joined Russia in 2014 following another referendum.
** Western sanctions ‘not so painful’ – Kremlin
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Friday that the sanctions against Moscow mostly boomeranged on those who imposed them and inspired Russia to develop its own industry.
“Many are beginning to see the light and understand that, firstly, the sanctions backfired on them, and secondly, turned out to be not so painful and pushed us to build up our own potential,” Peskov said at a press briefing.
President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman was answering a question about Thursday’s resolution of the European Parliament, which called for tougher sanctions on Moscow but argued against confiscating the personal belongings of Russians – such as personal vehicles – because “such over compliance discredits the goal and instrument of sanctions.”
Earlier this week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov pointed out that EU companies have lost at least €250 billion ($266.6 billion) due to the embargoes put in place over the Ukraine conflict. He said these were “very conservative estimates” and that the true cost of unilateral measures could be even higher.
The decision to cut ties with Russia has made the EU dependent on “expensive American energy” instead, causing an industrial crisis. The “terrorist attacks” on the Nord Stream gas pipelines in September 2022 ended all hopes of restoring the flow of affordable Russian gas to the EU economies, Lavrov said.
“The West decided to destroy the world economy for the sake of teaching Russia a lesson,” Lavrov told a roundtable of Russian ambassadors in Moscow.
For this reason, Lavrov explained, Russia does not expect the sanctions to be lifted any time soon, and has chosen to build new transport corridors and supply chains that will be “beyond the control of malicious influence”from the West.
Deputy Prime Minister Andrey Belousov said last week that the West predicted “a catastrophe comparable to the 1990s” for Russia and was “shocked” when that did not happen. Instead, Russia entered a period of “strengthening sovereignty,” leveraging its education, science, technology, infrastructure and natural resources.
While Russia’s GDP fell by 2.1% in 2022, it has since completely recovered and is on track to grow by 2.8% by the end of 2023, according to the Kremlin. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates the Russian GDP to grow 2.2%, up from its April forecast of 0.7%.
WESTERN PERSPECTIVE
Ukraine sinks two Russian landing boats in Crimea -military
Ukrainian naval drones sank two small Russian landing boats in Crimea, Ukraine's military intelligence agency said on Friday, while troops braced for further Russian assaults in the east, particularly the shattered town of Avdiivka.
Reuters could not independently verify the report of the attack on Vuzka Bay in the west of Crimea, which one Ukrainian military analyst said was a significant strike and loss for Russia.
There was no immediate comment by Russia, which seized and annexed the Crimea peninsula from Ukraine in 2014 and whose Black Sea Fleet is headquartered in the Crimean city of Sevastopol.
An initial report from Ukraine's military intelligence said the two small, amphibious Russian ships had been hit overnight.
A Friday evening update said the attack had been carried out by naval drones. It identified one landing craft as an Akula class vessel, the other a Serna class.
"The results of intelligence conducted on 10th November 2023 near Vuzka Bay in temporarily occupied Crimea show that after an attack by naval drones, two small Russian landing ships have been destroyed," the report said.
"As a consequence of the attack, both vessels went to the bottom, the Akula straight away and the Serna after attempts to save it."
The Ukrainian military said the vessels were crewed, and loaded with armoured vehicles.
"Boats like this are quite a significant loss ...," Andriy Ryzhenko, military analyst and reserve officer, told Radio NV.
"They allowed for the transport of a tactical landing force and equipment relatively inconspicuously."
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy says attacks on naval targets have dented Moscow's military strength in the area. Ukraine says some Russian vessels have left Sevastopol.
AVDIIVKA UNDER CONSTANT ATTACK
In eastern Ukraine, officials in Avdiivka, under Russian fire since mid-October, expected a new attempt to advance on the town once the ground dries from several days of heavy rain.
"Things are just as hot as they always were. The enemy is firing round the clock within the city and around our positions," Vitaliy Barabash, head of Avdiivka's military administration, told public broadcaster Suspilne.
Barabash said greater numbers of 1,500 remaining residents in what was once a city of 32,000 were preparing to evacuate. Russian forces had begun using drones to spot and fire on smoke from makeshift stoves as the weather turned colder, he said.
Military analyst Serhiy Zgurets, writing on the website of Espreso TV, said Russian forces sought to exploit Ukraine's focus on Avdiivka by attempting to retake areas they had lost near Bakhmut to the northeast. Russian forces seized Bakhmut in May, but Ukrainian troops have since retaken nearby villages.
Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Ukraine began a counteroffensive in the south and east in early June, but has encountered strong resistance.
Russia's Defence Minister said early on Saturday its anti-aircraft units had downed Ukrainian drones over Moscow Region and near Smolensk, near the border with Belarus.
Unofficial Russian telegram channel Baza reported a drone had been downed near a machine plant in Kolomna, 100 km (60 miles) southeast of Moscow and posted a picture of what it said was a fire at an explosives plant in Kotovsk, further southeast.
Reuters could not establish if the incidents reported by Baza were related to those from the Ministry of Defence and could not independently verify any of the reports.