RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE
20% of Ukrainian weapons destroyed in just two weeks – New York Times
The Ukrainian military lost 20% of the equipment it sent to the battlefield during the first two weeks of its counteroffensive, the New York Times reported on Saturday. This high attrition rate was reportedly a key factor in Kiev’s decision to pause the operation.
Beginning in early June, Ukrainian forces launched a series of attacks all along the front line from Kherson to Donetsk. Advancing through minefields and without air support, the Ukrainian military lost 26,000 men and more than 3,000 pieces of military hardware, according to the latest figures from the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Ukrainian losses were at their highest during the initial two weeks of the offensive, the New York Times claimed, citing unnamed American and European officials. These officials said that up to 20% of Ukraine’s tanks and armored vehicles were destroyed in this period, including many Western-provided vehicles.
For some units, Western equipment was lost at an even higher rate, the Times continued, citing figures from a pro-Ukrainian organization. Ukraine’s 47th Mechanized Brigade – a NATO-trained unit – apparently lost 30% of its 99 Bradley Infantry Fighting vehicles in two weeks, while the 33rd Mechanized Brigade lost nearly a third of its 32 German-made Leopard tanks in a single week.
“They all burned,” said one Ukrainian soldier who witnessed at least six Western vehicles destroyed in a single Russian artillery barrage. Another Ukrainian fighter told the Times that his unit’s Bradleys run over anti-tank mines on a daily basis. While the troops inside often survive, the vehicles are left immobilized long before they reach Russian lines.
According to Russian President Vladimir Putin, Russian forces have destroyed a total of 311 Ukrainian tanks since June 4. “At least a third of them, I believe, were Western-made tanks, including Leopards,” Putin told Russia 24 TV on Thursday.
After the first two weeks, Ukrainian commanders decided to pause the counteroffensive, and losses subsequently dropped to 10%, the Times claimed. President Vladimir Zelensky acknowledged the pause this week, but blamed the West for failing to supply him with enough weapons and equipment for a successful operation.
With little territorial gain to show for Kiev’s losses, Western officials have expressed disappointment at the pace of the offensive, according to a steady trickle of media reports since mid-June. Zelensky and some of his top officials still insist that the decisive phase of their counteroffensive has yet to begin.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Western backers are running low on ammunition, particularly 155mm artillery shells. US President Joe Biden admitted this week that “we’re low” on these shells, explaining that the shortage compelled him to send controversial cluster munitions in their stead. The US has also stalled on approving the training of Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighter jets, something that Kiev insists will help restart the faltering counteroffensive.
** Crimea invasion would kill 200,000 Ukrainian soldiers – ex-Zelensky aide
The cost of invading Crimea would be too high for Kiev, a former adviser to Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, Aleksey Arestovich, said this week. The operation would likely lead to hundreds of thousands of casualties, he said, speaking to Russian journalist Yulia Latynina.
There are “few prospects” of seizing the Crimean Peninsula through military means, Arestovich said, when discussing the options remaining to Kiev in its ongoing conflict with Moscow. “What will be the cost? Extermination of 200,000 of the adult male population?” he added, referring to the number of soldiers Ukraine would be likely to lose. Ukraine’s economy might also be “totally destroyed” in the process, he warned.
Kiev is already “totally dependent” on its Western backers, the former presidential adviser admitted. Should the US and its allies stop supplying Ukrainian troops with weapons, they would not only be unable to take back territories that had joined Russia, but would also struggle to defend their current positions, he said.
Arestovich also openly charged that Washington and its allies were pursuing their own interests in the conflict. “Let’s be honest: our foreign policy goals in this war contrast sharply with the foreign policy goals of our sponsors and backers,” he said, adding that the West was willing to sacrifice Ukraine’s territory and lives of its people to achieve the desired outcome.
Ukraine can now only influence the Western leaders at an “emotional” level, the former presidential adviser said, adding that Kiev should have focused on building up its own sovereignty instead. “We need relations… based on real profits. That’s the only thing they [the West] understand,” he added. Arestovich also said that “immoral policies… and inability to take serious decisions” are the “major weakness of the West.”
Still, Ukraine cannot just abandon its Western backers and pursue its own goals “at any cost,” the former adviser insisted, adding that that would be a “dead end” for Kiev. The only consolation would be the prospect of joining NATO in exchange for peace with Russia.
WESTERN PERSPECTIVE
Ukraine, Russia accuse each other of shelling civilians in Zaporizhzhia
Three civilians were wounded in Russian shelling of a village in Zaporizhzhia, the head of Ukraine's presidential administration said on Saturday, while Moscow-backed officials said that Kyiv's forces shelled a school there.
Fighting has been taking place in Zaporizhzhia for months, a frontline region in southern Ukraine that Moscow moved to annex last year but does not occupy it in its entirety. The regional capital, the city of Zaporizhzhia, remains under Kyiv's control.
Andriy Yermak, the head of Ukraine's presidential administration, said on his Telegram messaging app that Russian forces shelled the village of Stepnohirske in the region from multiple rocket launchers, hitting an administrative building.
"There are three wounded: two women and a men," Yermak said.
Russia also shelled the city of Zaporizhzhia, hitting and damaging at least 16 buildings there, Anatoliy Kurtiev, secretary of the city council said.
Vladimir Rogov, a Russian-installed official in parts of Zaporizhzhia controlled by Moscow, said that Ukrainian forces destroyed a school in the village of Stulneve, while air defence forces intercepted a drone over the city of Tokmak.
Reuters could not independently verify neither of the reports. Both sides deny targeting civilians in the nearly 17-month long war that Russia has been waging on its neighbour.
Russia's defence ministry said on Saturday it had destroyed a number of Ukrainian weapon depots in the region over the past day. Ukraine's top military command said that Russia is trying to stop Ukraine's advance there, shelling heavily the area.
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy vowed again on Saturday to liberate all the land that Russia occupies.
"We cannot leave any of our people, any towns and villages under Russian occupation," Zelenskiy said in his nightly video address. "Wherever the Russian occupation continues, violence and humiliation of people reign."
** Fighters from the Wagner group have arrived in Belarus from Russia, Ukrainian and Polish officials said on Saturday, a day after Minsk said the mercenaries were training the country's soldiers southeast of the capital.
"Wagner is in Belarus," Andriy Demchenko, a spokesman for the Ukrainian border agency, said in a statement on the Telegram messaging app. He said the movement of "separate groups" from Russia had been observed in Belarus.
Some Wagner fighters have been in Belarus since at least Tuesday, two sources close to the fighters told Reuters.
The Belarusian defence ministry released a video on Friday, showing what it said were Wagner fighters instructing Belarusian soldiers at a military range near the town of Osipovichi.
Wagner's move to Belarus was part of a deal that ended the group's mutiny attempt in June - when they took control of a Russian military headquarters, marched on Moscow and threatened to tip Russia into civil war - President Vladimir Putin said.
Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin has not been seen in public since he left the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don late on June 24.
Poland's deputy minister coordinator of special services, Stanislaw Zaryn, said Warsaw also has confirmation of Wagner fighters' presence in Belarus.
"There may be several hundred of them at the moment," Zaryn said on Twitter.
Poland said this month it was bolstering its border with Belarus to address any potential threats.
While not sending his own troops to Ukraine, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko allowed Moscow to use Belarusian territory to launch its full-scale invasion on Ukraine in February 2022 and has since let his country be used as a base for Russian nuclear weapons.
The Belarusian Hajun project, which monitors military activity in the country and which is viewed as an extremist formation by Belarusian authorities, said a large column of at least 60 vehicles entered Belarus overnight Friday from Russia.
It said the vehicles, including trucks, pickups, vans and buses, had licence plates of the self-styled Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics in what is internationally recognised as eastern Ukraine. In a move widely condemned as illegal, Moscow moved last year to annex the republics, which have been Russian proxies since 2014.
Hajun said it appeared that a Wagner column was headed to Tsel in central Belarus, where foreign reporters were last week shown a camp with hundreds of empty tents.
Reuters could not independently verify the Belarusian Hajun report. There was no immediate comment from Russia or Belarus on the reports.
** Putin discusses grain deal, awkward BRICs summit with Ramaphosa
Russian President Vladimir Putin held a phone call with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa in which they discussed the Black Sea grain deal, due to expire on Monday, and a summit in South Africa next month, the Kremlin said on Saturday.
Ramaphosa finds himself in an awkward position as host of the BRICS summit because of an arrest warrant issued against Putin in March by the International Criminal Court (ICC), which accused him of the war crime of deporting Ukrainian children to Russia.
The warrant means member states of the ICC - of which South Africa is one - are obliged to arrest him if he sets foot on their territory. Russia said at the time that the warrant was "outrageous" and legally void because Russia is not an ICC member.
The Kremlin has yet to say publicly if Putin intends to go to the summit. In Saturday's statement it said Ramaphosa had briefed Putin about preparations for the event, but did not give details of their exchange.
Ramaphosa's office, in its readout of the call, did not mention the meeting of the BRICS group, which also includes Brazil, India and China.
It said the two men discussed an African peace initiative for Ukraine and "the need for a permanent and sustainable solution to the movement of grain from Russia and Ukraine to the international markets".
The African plan was presented separately to Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy last month by a group of leaders including Ramaphosa, but has yet to gain any traction.
On the grain deal, which expires on Monday unless Russia agrees to extend it, Putin reiterated to Ramaphosa that commitments to remove obstacles to Russian food and fertiliser exports had not yet been fulfilled, the Kremlin said.
Russia has repeatedly said that for this reason it sees no grounds to renew the deal, originally struck a year ago to enable Ukraine to export grain from its Black Sea ports despite the war with Russia.
Putin told reporters on Thursday that rather than renew the arrangement next week, Moscow might pull out and wait for its demands to be met before rejoining.
Russia has threatened to quit the deal before, however, only to renew it at the last minute.
RT/Reuters