WESTERN PERSPECTIVE
Russian forces in retreat near Bakhmut, Ukraine and Wagner say
The Ukrainian military and Russia's Wagner private army both reported further Russian retreats around the city of Bakhmut on Thursday, as Kyiv pressed on with its biggest advance for six months ahead of a planned counteroffensive.
Ukrainian troops near the front line said Russia was bombarding access roads to slow the Ukrainian assault, which has shifted momentum after months of slow Russian gains in Europe's deadliest ground combat since World War Two.
"Now, for the most part, as we have started to advance, they are shelling all the routes to front positions, so our armoured vehicles can't deliver more infantry, ammunition and other things," said Petro Podaru, commander of a Ukrainian artillery unit.
Ukraine's military said troops had advanced in places by more than a mile. Its forces had been on the defensive for half a year, weathering a huge offensive by Moscow that saw only slow gains.
"Despite the fact that our units do not have an advantage in equipment ... and personnel, they have continued to advance on the flanks, and covered a distance of 150 to 1,700 metres (1.1 miles)," military spokesperson Serhiy Cherevatyi said in televised comments.
Ukraine's gains have been accompanied by a deepening public split within Russia's forces between Wagner, which has led the Bakhmut campaign, and the regular Russian military.
The blasted ruins of Bakhmut, described by both sides as a "meat grinder", would be Moscow's only prize for its huge winter offensive that failed elsewhere along the front.
Kyiv says it has launched local advances around Bakhmut as a prelude to an upcoming big counteroffensive that it hopes will turn the tide against Russia's 15-month-old invasion.
Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin says his forces inside Bakhmut itself are still advancing, on the cusp of pushing Ukrainian troops out of their last foothold in the built-up area on the city's western outskirts.
But he accuses commanders of Russia's regular forces of abandoning ground north and south of the city, raising the risk of troops inside being encircled.
"Unfortunately, units of the Russian Defence Ministry have withdrawn up to 570 metres (1,880 feet) to the north of Bakhmut, exposing our flanks," Prigozhin said in his latest voice message on Thursday.
"I am appealing to the top leadership of the Ministry of Defence - publicly - because my letters are not being read," Prigozhin said, addressing Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov.
"Please do not give up the flanks."
The Russian defence ministry has acknowledged some withdrawals from positions near Bakhmut over the past week but denies Prigozhin's assertions that flanks are crumbling, or that it has withheld ammunition from Wagner.
FALLING INTO 'THE MOUSETRAP'
Ukrainian Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar said Russia had pushed reservesinto Bakhmut and battles had raged in its northern and southern suburbs all day. But the Russians had been repelled and her forces had advanced, by her estimate by about a kilometre in some areas.
"We are buying time for certain planned actions," Maliar said on her Telegram channel. Reuters could not confirm her account.
Kyiv says its tactic around Bakhmut is to draw Russian forces into the city, so as to weaken Russia's front line defences elsewhere ahead of Kyiv's planned counterassault.
"Wagner troops climbed into Bakhmut like rats into a mousetrap," Oleksander Syrskyi, commander of Ukraine's ground forces, told troops at the Bakhmut front in video he released this week on social media.
"Using the principle of active defence, we resort to counteroffensive actions in some directions near Bakhmut. The enemy has more resources, but we are destroying his plans."
With Kyiv's counteroffensive looming, Russia has resumed missile and drone strikes across Ukraine this month after a near two-month lull. Waves of attacks now come several times a week, the most intense pace of the war.
On Thursday, air raid sirens sounded overnight, black smoke filled the sky over Kyiv and one person was reported killed in the southern city of Odesa. Ukraine said it shot down 29 of 30 incoming missiles. Moscow claimed to have hit military targets.
Russia has also been experiencing attacks and explosions both in Ukrainian territory it controls and in Russian territory near the border. Officials in Russian-occupied Crimea reported a freight train had been derailed overnight by "interference". Kyiv never confirms any role in incidents there.
On the diplomatic front, leaders of the G7 group of big developed countries were meeting in Japan where they are expected to unveil tighter measures to close off Russia's opportunities to bypass financial sanctions.
U.S. President Joe Biden and Japan's Fumio Kishida met for talks in Hiroshima, aiming for closer cooperation in the face of both an unpredictable Russia and ascendant China.
A U.S. Senate aide and a defence official said on Thursday the Pentagon had overvalued U.S. equipment it sent to Ukraine by around $3 billion, an error that opens up the possibility of more weapons being sent to Kyiv.
On Wednesday, Moscow agreed to a two-month extension of a deal safeguarding exports of Ukrainian grain from Black Sea ports despite the war. Russia had threatened to abandon the deal unless it received additional guarantees protecting its own grain and fertiliser exports.
However, a Ukrainian official said the corridor had not yet resumed, while Russia said more progress was needed to advance its interests.
RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE
Ukraine has ‘five months left’ to impress US – FT
Ukraine has five months to demonstrate some “advances” to the US and other Western backers, to convince them of its plans for the conflict with Russia, the Financial Times reported on Thursday, citing several European and American officials.
Washington is entering an election cycle and has to show that the massive military support the US and its allies have been providing to Ukraine has not been in vain, the paper also said.
“It is important for America to sell this war as a successful one, as well as for domestic purposes to prove that all of those aid packages have been successful in terms of Ukrainian advances,” a European official told the FT.
The polls show that public support for Ukraine is waning in the US, and President Biden’s administration has to show that the tens of billions of dollars it spent on assistance for Kiev made a major difference on the frontlines, the media outlet said.
According to FT sources, Washington believes the next five months are critical to the outcome of the conflict. “If we get to September and Ukraine has not made significant gains, then the international pressure on [the West] to bring them to negotiations will be enormous,” another source told the FT, on condition of anonymity.
September will see the UN General Assembly and G20 leaders’ summit take place one after another. Both events could be used to make the warring parties sit down at a negotiating table, FT said.
Western military support for Kiev is also about to reach its limits, the sources warned. “The message [to Kiev] is basically that this is the best you’re going to get,” a European official told the paper. “There’s no more flexibility in the US budget to keep writing checks, and European arms factories are running at full capacity.”
The US continues to be Ukraine’s biggest backer when it comes to arms supplies. Washington’s allies are concerned about its capacity to maintain that support and expect it to decrease in 2024 amid a US presidential election. “We can’t keep the same level of assistance forever,” a European official said, adding that the current level of support might be sustained for a year or two but no longer.
** US wants to ‘freeze’ Ukraine conflict – Politico
The administration of US President Joe Biden is reportedly considering ‘freezing’ the conflict in Ukraine for the foreseeable future, instead of pushing for the country’s victory, according to sources cited by Politico on Thursday.
Three serving and one former US official told the outlet that a long-term low-intensity stand-off was currently being discussed in the White House.
The former official compared the possible scenario to how the Korean War of the early 1950s ended in an armistice. There was no formal peace agreement, with both Pyongyang and Seoul claim sovereignty over the entire Korean Peninsula and a demilitarized zone separating the two parts.
“A Korea-style stoppage is certainly something that’s been discussed by experts and analysts in and out of government,” the source said. “It’s plausible, because neither side would need to recognize any new borders and the only thing that would have to be agreed is to stop shooting along a set line.”
The benefits for the US would be that a frozen conflict would be less costly for Western nations and draw less public attention, and consequently less pressure to assist Kiev, the outlet explained.
Ukraine would still be allied with Washington and continue switching its military to NATO standards, as it seeks to join the bloc someday.
The ‘Korean scenario’ for Ukraine drew media attention in January, after Aleksey Danilov, the secretary of the country’s national security council, claimed in an interview that Moscow had sent a top official to European capitals to promote it.
The Kremlin denied the reports and claimed Danilov may have mistaken a Ukrainian politician surnamed Kazak for his namesake in the Russian government, whom he identified as the messenger.
Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy chair of the Russian Security Council, argued that Danilov’s words were meant for “domestic consumption,” so that the Ukrainian government could measure the public reaction to it. The Russian official mused that “being split is the best-case scenario,” for Kiev, under the circumstances.
Moscow called NATO’s expansion in Europe and its creeping takeover of Ukraine without its formal accession as one of the key reasons for sending troops against its neighbor. The conflict, Russia has maintained, is part of a US proxy war against it, in which Ukrainians serve as cannon fodder.
** Russian forces wipe out Ukrainian arms, ammo depots with precision weapons
Russian forces hit Kiev’s large foreign equipment and armament depots and army reserves with seaborne and air-launched precision weapons, destroying substantial weapon and ammunition stockpiles during the special military operation in Ukraine, Defense Ministry Spokesman Lieutenant-General Igor Konashenkov reported on Thursday.
"Last night, Russian forces delivered multiple strikes by seaborne and air-launched long-range high-precision weapons against large foreign armament and equipment depots and enemy reserves. The goal of the strikes was achieved. All the designated targets were hit. The strikes destroyed considerable stockpiles of the Ukrainian army’s armaments and ammunition and thwarted the advance of reserves to the areas of combat operations," the spokesman said.
Russian forces eliminate 60 Ukrainian troops in Kupyansk area
Russian forces destroyed roughly 60 Ukrainian troops, two armored vehicles and a howitzer in the Kupyansk area over the past day, Konashenkov reported.
Combat aircraft and artillery from Russia’s western battlegroup struck the enemy units in areas near the settlements of Novomlynsk and Kotlyarovka in the Kharkov Region, the spokesman specified.
"The enemy’s losses in that direction in the past 24 hours totaled 60 Ukrainian personnel, two armored combat vehicles, two motor vehicles and a D-20 howitzer," the general reported.
Units of the Russian army’s 138th and 27th motorized infantry brigades neutralized two enemy subversive/reconnaissance groups by their active operations, the spokesman added.
Russian forces destroy over 75 Ukrainian troops in Krasny Liman area
Russian combat aircraft and artillery struck Ukrainian army units in the Krasny Liman area, destroying over 75 enemy troops in the past day, Konashenkov reported.
"In the Krasny Liman direction, operational/tactical and army aviation and artillery from the battlegroup Center inflicted damage on the Ukrainian army’s personnel and equipment in areas near the settlements of Ploshchanka and Kuzmino in the Lugansk People’s Republic," the spokesman said.
In all, "over 75 Ukrainian personnel, a tank, four armored combat vehicles, two pickup trucks and a D-30 howitzer were destroyed" in that direction in the past 24 hours, the general reported.
Russian forces eliminate two Ukrainian subversive groups in LPR
Russian forces eliminated two Ukrainian subversive groups in the Lugansk People’s Republic (LPR) over the past day, Konashenkov reported.
"Units of the 98th air assault division eliminated two subversive/reconnaissance groups near the settlement of Chervonaya Dibrova in the Lugansk People’s Republic," the spokesman said.
Russian forces destroy 200 Ukrainian troops, mercenaries in Donetsk area
Russian forces destroyed roughly 200 Ukrainian troops and foreign mercenaries in the Donetsk area over the past day, Konashenkov reported.
"The enemy’s losses in that direction amounted to 200 Ukrainian personnel and mercenaries, a tank, three armored combat vehicles, five motor vehicles and two Gvozdika motorized artillery systems," the spokesman said.
Russian assault teams continue battles for Artyomovsk
Russian assault teams continued battles for Artyomovsk in the Donetsk area with the paratroopers’ support over the past day, Konashenkov reported.
"In the Donetsk direction, the assault teams continued the battles for the liberation of Artyomovsk with the active support of Airborne Force units. Operational/tactical and army aviation and artillery from the southern battlegroup struck the enemy manpower and equipment in areas near the settlements of Chasov Yar and Bogdanovka in the Donetsk People’s Republic," the spokesman said.
During the last 24-hour period, aircraft flew seven sorties in that area. The battlegroup’s artillery accomplished 72 firing objectives, the general specified.
Kiev suffers 150 casualties in southern Donetsk, Zaporozhye areas
Russian forces killed and wounded roughly 150 Ukrainian troops and destroyed two enemy artillery guns in the southern Donetsk and Zaporozhye areas over the past day, Konashenkov reported.
Aircraft and artillery of Russia’s battlegroup East struck the Ukrainian army units near Ugledar in the Donetsk People’s Republic, the spokesman specified.
"The enemy’s losses amounted to 150 Ukrainian personnel killed and wounded, five motor vehicles, a Strela-10 anti-aircraft missile launcher, an FH70 howitzer and a US-made M777 artillery system," the general reported.
Russian forces destroy 35 Ukrainian troops in Kherson area
Russian forces destroyed roughly 35 Ukrainian troops and an armored vehicle in the Kherson area over the past day, Konashenkov reported.
"Over 35 Ukrainian personnel, an armored combat vehicle and three motor vehicles were destroyed in the Kherson direction in the past 24 hours as a result of damage inflicted by firepower," the spokesman reported.
Russian combat aircraft down Ukrainian Su-24 frontline bomber in DPR
Russian combat aircraft shot down a Ukrainian Su-24 frontline bomber near Slavyansk in the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) over the past day, Konashenkov reported.
"Fighter aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces shot down a Ukrainian Air Force Su-24 plane near the settlement of Slavyansk in the Donetsk People’s Republic," the spokesman said.
Russian air defenses down Mi-8 helicopter in Ukraine operation
Russian air defense forces shot down a Ukrainian Mi-8 helicopter, intercepted four HIMARS and Uragan rockets and destroyed 11 enemy drones over the past day, Konashenkov reported.
"Air defense capabilities shot down a Ukrainian Air Force Mi-8 helicopter near the settlement of Novopavlovka in the Zaporozhye Region. During the last 24-hour period, they intercepted four rockets of the HIMARS and Uragan multiple launch rocket systems," the spokesman said.
In addition, Russian air defense systems destroyed 11 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles in areas near the settlements of Pologi and Romanovskoye in the Zaporozhye Region, Gorlovka, Peski, Blagodatnoye and Volodino in the Donetsk People’s Republic, Nikolayevka, Novovodyanoye and Kremennaya in the Lugansk People’s Republic, the general specified.
Russian forces strike 68 Ukrainian artillery units in past day
Russian combat aircraft struck 68 Ukrainian artillery units at firing positions and destroyed a US-made counter-battery radar over the past day, Konashenkov reported.
"During the last 24-hour period, operational/tactical and army aviation and artillery of the Russian group of forces struck 68 Ukrainian artillery units at firing positions, manpower and military hardware in 97 areas," the spokesman said.
"In the area of the settlement of Krivaya Luka in the Donetsk People’s Republic, an AN/TPQ-37 counter-battery radar was obliterated," the general reported.
In all, the Russian Armed Forces have destroyed 428 Ukrainian combat aircraft, 234 helicopters, 4,208 unmanned aerial vehicles, 423 surface-to-air missile systems, 9,218 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,100 multiple rocket launchers, 4,843 field artillery guns and mortars and 10,284 special military motor vehicles since the beginning of the special military operation in Ukraine, Konashenkov reported.
Reuters/RT/Tass