A new report on the Lagos housing market paints a stark picture of climate vulnerability, revealing that over 84% of Lagos’ coastline has receded in the past half-century, driven by unchecked coastal erosion, rising sea levels, and intense human encroachment.
The findings underscore the city’s mounting climate-induced threats, which include not just erosion and sea-level rise, but also heavier rainfall and increasingly frequent floods. Lagos’ low-lying terrain — just 5 meters above sea level on average — combined with dense urban sprawl and inadequate drainage, makes it especially prone to these hazards.
The report highlights an average coastal erosion rate of 2.64 meters per year, with projections suggesting that sea levels along Nigeria’s coast could rise by 0.3 meters by 2030. Local experts warn of even steeper scenarios, predicting a potential 3-meter rise along the Lagos coastline, threatening homes, roads, businesses, and farmlands.
Rainfall patterns in Lagos have also become more erratic and severe. Major hubs such as Ikeja, Badagry, Ikorodu, Lagos Island, and Epe are increasingly at risk, with flash floods becoming a grim hallmark of the city’s wet seasons. The limited capacity of drainage systems means that heavy downpours often translate into catastrophic floods. Between 2022 and 2023 alone, flooding impacted over 175,000 residents and caused property losses exceeding $262,500.
The most severe recent event struck in 2024, when a 10-hour deluge flooded large swathes of the city, displacing families and damaging prime real estate, especially in Lekki, Ikoyi, and Ajah.
Looking ahead, the economic toll could be immense. The report estimates climate shocks might slash Lagos’ GDP by 6-30% by 2050, with nearly 7,000 infrastructure assets already exposed to climate risks, and 6,500 classified as highly vulnerable, representing around $17.4 billion in value.
The stakes are particularly high for Lagos’ tourism, leisure, and entertainment sectors, which together contribute about 5-6% of GDP, yet now face severe threats from shoreline retreat and flooding.
Rapid population growth — Lagos now exceeds 24 million people — has fueled unplanned expansion into floodplains, wetlands, and grasslands, accelerating deforestation and surface runoff. Wetlands that once served as natural flood buffers have been degraded or reclaimed for development, crippling their ability to absorb excess water.
Pollution compounds these problems. The report points to solid waste clogging drains and worsening floods, with waste-related activities accounting for over 25% of Lagos State’s total emissions.
“The increasing urban expansion has led to the degradation and reclamation of these vital ecosystems, severely diminishing their capacity to regulate floodwaters,” the report concludes, urging urgent climate adaptation measures to safeguard Africa’s largest city from escalating environmental and economic risks.
