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Monday, 12 May 2025 04:41

What to know after Day 1173 of Russia-Ukraine war

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WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Zelenskiy tells Putin to come to Turkey if he wants talks, after Trump intervention

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he was ready to meet Vladimir Putin in Turkey on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump told him publicly to immediately accept the Kremlin leader's proposal of direct talks.

Zelenskiy's suggestion of a meeting with Putin capped a dramatic 48 hours in which European leaders joined Zelenskiy in demanding a 30-day ceasefire from Monday, only for Putin to make a counter-proposal to instead hold the first direct Ukraine-Russia talks since the early months of the 2022 invasion.

It was far from clear, however, that Putin meant he would attend in person. Putin and Zelenskiy have not met since December 2019 and make no secret of their contempt for each other.

"I will be waiting for Putin in Türkiye on Thursday. Personally," Zelenskiy wrote on X. "I hope that this time the Russians will not look for excuses."

On Telegram, his chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, added: "What about Putin? Is he afraid? We'll see."

The Ukrainian leader had responded guardedly earlier on Sunday after the Russian president, in a night-time televised statement that coincided with prime time in the U.S., proposed direct talks in Istanbul next Thursday, May 15.

Putin's suggestion came hours after major European powers demanded on Saturday in Kyiv that he agree to an unconditional 30-day ceasefire or face "massive" new sanctions, a position that Trump's Ukraine envoy Keith Kellogg endorsed.

TRUMP DEMANDS TALKS BEGIN

Zelenskiy too had said Ukraine was ready for talks, if Moscow agreed to the 30-day ceasefire.

Yet Trump, who has the power to continue or sever Washington's crucial supply of arms to Ukraine, took a different line.

"President Putin of Russia doesn’t want to have a Cease Fire Agreement with Ukraine, but rather wants to meet on Thursday, in Turkey, to negotiate a possible end to the BLOODBATH. Ukraine should agree to this, IMMEDIATELY," Trump wrote on Truth Social.

"At least they will be able to determine whether or not a deal is possible, and if it is not, European leaders, and the U.S., will know where everything stands, and can proceed accordingly!"

Russia and Ukraine have both courted Trump.

Kyiv is desperate to unlock more of the U.S. military backing it received from his predecessor, Joe Biden. Moscow senses an opportunity to get relief from a barrage of economic sanctions and engage with the world's biggest economy.

Putin sent Russia's armed forces into Ukraine in February 2022, unleashing a conflict that has killed hundreds of thousands of soldiers and triggered the gravest confrontation between Russia and the West since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

But with Russian forces grinding forward, the Kremlin chief has offered few, if any, concessions so far.

In his overnight address, he proposed what he said would be "direct negotiations without any preconditions".

But almost immediately, senior Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov told reporters the talks must take into account both an abandoned 2022 draft peace framework and the current situation on the ground.

This language is shorthand for Kyiv agreeing to permanent neutrality in return for a security guarantee and accepting that Russia controls swathes of Ukraine.

Ukraine says agreeing to the terms of the 2022 draft would be tantamount to capitulation.

PUTIN REJECTS 'ULTIMATUMS'

Putin dismissed what he said was an attempt to lay down "ultimatums" in the form of Western European and Ukrainian demands for a ceasefire starting on Monday. His foreign ministry spelled out that talks about the root causes of the conflict must precede discussions of a ceasefire.

Trump, who says he wants to be remembered as a peacemaker and has repeatedly promised to end the war, earlier responded to Putin's address by saying that this could be "A potentially great day for Russia and Ukraine!".

Though Russia did not commit to it, Zelenskiy said Ukraine's ceasefire plan for Monday still stood.

"We await a full and lasting ceasefire, starting from tomorrow, to provide the necessary basis for diplomacy," he wrote on X.

Speaking in his nightly address, Zelenskiy said he was still waiting for a response from the Russian side - and that Ukrainian forces would respond in kind if Russian troops did not observe a truce.

The U.S. embassy in Kyiv issued a warning on Friday of a "potentially significant" Russian air attack in the coming days.

 

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

US greenlights long-range missile transfer to Ukraine – NYT

The US has approved the transfer of 100 Patriot air-defense missiles and 125 long-range artillery rockets from German stockpiles to Ukraine, the New York Times reported on Friday, citing a congressional official. Under US export rules, American-made systems cannot be re-exported without prior approval from Washington.

The move follows Russia’s declaration of a 72-hour unilateral ceasefire from the start of May 8 to the end of May 10 to mark Victory Day, as well as President Vladimir Putin’s proposal to hold direct peace talks in Istanbul on May 15.

Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky has long advocated for long-range missiles and Patriot systems. He recently stated that Kiev is prepared to spend $30-50 billion on US weapons or obtain production licenses, and has instructed his government to pursue a Patriot deal. Each unit costs over $1 billion and requires around 90 personnel to operate.

Since returning to office in January, US President Donald Trump has not authorized new military aid for Ukraine. Shipments previously approved under former President Joe Biden have been nearly exhausted. According to the New York Times, the Trump administration has shown little interest in pursuing further assistance, instead urging European NATO allies to take on a greater share of the burden in supporting Ukraine.

On Thursday, the Ukrainian parliament ratified a landmark agreement with the US that grants Washington preferential access to critical natural resources, including rare-earth elements. Originally signed in April, the deal outlines the creation of a joint investment fund to support Ukraine’s economic recovery. While it does not include formal security assurances, Kiev views the agreement as a pathway to deeper cooperation with the US and potential future military support.

“This gives us hope,” Egor Chernev, the deputy chair of Ukraine’s parliamentary defense committee, said, as quoted by the New York Times. He noted that Ukrainian forces are running low on long-range missiles, artillery, and ballistic air defense systems, the majority of which are produced in the US.

In April, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said Berlin could not immediately send more Patriot systems due to supply issues. However, he confirmed plans to deliver four German-made IRIS-T SLM systems and 30 additional missiles. Germany has also sent 60 mine-resistant vehicles, 50,000 artillery shells, and one IRIS-T interceptor.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s government has decided to stop publishing shipment details, aiming to establish “strategic ambiguity.”

Russia says it remains open to dialogue but insists that halting Western arms shipments is a prerequisite for any lasting ceasefire. Kiev has repeatedly called for a 30-day truce in recent months, describing it as critical to launching diplomatic efforts. Moscow has pushed back against the proposal, arguing that a pause would largely benefit Ukraine by giving its forces time to regroup and replenish their stockpiles.

 

Reuters/RT