Nigeria’s GDP per capita has plunged to a staggering 26-year low, effectively wiping out the steady economic gains recorded under the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) administrations from 1999 to 2015. This emerges from new data by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) visualized by TheCable Index.

According to the figures, Nigeria’s per capita income rose consistently during the PDP years, climbing from a mere $482 in 1999 under President Olusegun Obasanjo to an impressive $3,265 by 2014 under President Goodluck Jonathan. But since 2015, when the All Progressives Congress (APC) came to power, the trend has dramatically reversed, culminating in an alarming drop to just $807 in 2025 — the lowest since 1999.

The Rise Under PDP (1999–2015)

From the return to democracy in 1999, Nigeria under the PDP saw a gradual but firm rise in prosperity.

• Under Obasanjo (1999–2007), GDP per capita grew from $482 to $1,563, laying the foundation for macroeconomic stability through debt relief and banking sector reforms.

• Under Umaru Musa Yar’Adua (2007–2010), the figure peaked at $2,232 before slightly dipping to $1,960 in 2009 amid global financial turmoil.

• Under Jonathan (2010–2015), per capita income surged to its historical high of $3,265 by 2014.

This 16-year period was marked by major oil revenue booms and economic expansion that consistently translated to improved income on a per-person basis.

The Fall Under APC (2015–2025)

When the APC took office with President Muhammadu Buhari in 2015, the trend sharply turned.

• GDP per capita fell to $2,729 in 2015 and continued to slide nearly every year, closing Buhari’s tenure at $2,198 in 2022 — a 33% decline from Jonathan’s 2014 peak.

• Under President Bola Tinubu, the decline has been even steeper. In just two years, Nigeria’s per capita income has nosedived from $1,637 in 2023 to $807 in April 2025.

This figure is less than one-fourth of what it was a decade ago and starkly below the levels inherited from the PDP in 2015.

Analysis: A Tale of Two Parties and Economic Divergence

The data tells a sobering story. For 16 years under the PDP, Nigeria’s income per head steadily rose, reflecting the country’s oil-driven growth and relative macroeconomic stability. These gains, however, were fragile, overly tied to global oil prices, and left the economy vulnerable to shocks.

When the APC assumed power in 2015, it inherited a commodity slump but critics argue that weak policy responses, forex mismanagement, and chronic insecurity have deepened the crisis. Instead of halting the slide, successive APC administrations have presided over an unrelenting erosion of prosperity.

The crash to $807 per capita in 2025 represents not just economic pain in abstract figures — it means Nigerians are, on average, poorer than they were a generation ago. For a country with one of the world’s fastest growing populations, this is a dire marker of rising poverty, hunger, and social frustration.

This economic reversal highlights the consequences of failing to diversify beyond oil, tame inflation, stabilize the naira, and create jobs at scale. It also underscores how governance choices — including fiscal discipline, investment climate reforms, and security architecture — have direct impacts on citizens’ wallets.

The Bottom Line

As Nigeria grapples with these harsh realities, the data serves as a wake-up call for leaders across the political divide. Reversing this bleak trajectory will require more than slogans. It will demand bold structural reforms, renewed social contracts, and above all, a commitment to inclusive growth that ensures the average Nigerian does not continue to grow poorer year after year.