On Day One of Gaza cease-fire, Hamas and Israel carry out first swap of hostages and prisoners

Hamas on Friday released 24 hostages it held captive in Gaza for weeks, and Israel freed 39 Palestinians from prison in the first stage of a swap under a four-day cease-fire that offered a small glimmer of relief to both sides.

Israel — wrenched by the abduction of nearly 240 people in Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack that triggered the war — cheered as 13 Israeli women and children emerged free from Gaza. Most were in their 70s or 80s, and the youngest was a 2-year-old. Also released were 10 people from Thailand and one from the Philippines.

In Gaza, the truce’s start Friday morning brought the first quiet for 2.3 million Palestinians reeling and desperate from relentless Israeli bombardment that has killed thousands, driven three-quarters of the population from their homes and leveled residential areas. Rocket fire from Gaza militants into Israel went silent as well.

Increased supplies of food, water, medicine and fuel promised under the deal began to roll into Gaza, where U.N. officials had warned that Israel’s seal on the territory threatened to push it to starvation.

But relief has been tempered — among Israelis by the fact that not all hostages will be freed and among Palestinians by the briefness of the pause. The short truce leaves Gaza mired in humanitarian crisis and under the threat that fighting could soon resume.

Israel says the cease-fire could be extended if more hostages are released, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said it had received a new list of hostages to be released by Hamas on Saturday.

But Israel has vowed to resume its massive offensive once the truce ends. That has clouded hopes that the deal could eventually help wind down the conflict, which has fueled a surge of violence in the occupied West Bank and stirred fears of a wider conflagration across the Middle East.

FIRST HOSTAGES FREED

Under the deal, Hamas is to release at least 50 hostages, and Israel 150 Palestinian prisoners over the four days. Both sides were starting with women and children. Israel said the four-day truce can be extended an extra day for every additional 10 hostages freed.

After nightfall Friday, a line of ambulances emerged from Gaza through the Rafah Crossing into Egypt carrying the freed hostages, as seen live on Egypt’s state-run Al-Qahera TV. The freed Israelis included nine women and four children 9 and under.

The released hostages were taken to three Israeli hospitals for observation. The Schneider Children’s Medical Center said it was treating eight Israelis — four children and four women — and that all appeared to be in good physical condition. The center said they were also receiving psychological treatment, adding that “these are sensitive moments” for the families.

At a plaza dubbed “Hostages Square” in Tel Aviv, a crowd of Israelis celebrated at the news.

Yael Adar spotted her mother, 85-year-old Yaffa Adar, in a TV newscast of the release and was cheered to see her walking. “That was a huge concern, what would happen to her health during these almost two months,” she told Israel’s Channel 12.

But Yael’s 38-year-old son, Tamir Adar, remained in captivity. Both were kidnapped on Oct. 7 from Kibbutz Nir Oz. “Everyone needs to come back. It’s happiness locked up in grief.”

The hostages included multiple generations. Nine-year-old Ohad Munder-Zichri was freed along with his mother, Keren Munder, and grandmother Ruti Munder. The fourth-grader was abducted during a holiday visit to his grandparents at the kibbutz where about 80 people — nearly a quarter of all residents of the small community — are believed to have been taken hostage.

The plight of the hostages has raised anger among some families that the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was not doing enough to bring them home.

Hours later, 24 Palestinian women and 15 teenagers held in Israeli prisons in the occupied West Bank and east Jerusalem were freed. In the West Bank town of Beituna, hundreds of Palestinians poured out of their homes to celebrate, honking horns and setting off fireworks that lite up the nights sky.

The teenagers had been jailed for minor offenses like throwing stones. The women included several convicted of trying to stab Israeli soldiers, and others who had been arrested at checkpoints in the West Bank.

“As a Palestinian, my heart is broken for my brothers in Gaza, so I can’t really celebrate,” said Abdulqader Khatib, a U.N. worker whose 17-year-old son, Iyas, was freed. “But I am a father. And deep inside, I am very happy.”

Iyas had been taken last year into “administrative detention,” without charges or trial and based on secret evidence. Israel often holds detainees for months without charges. Most of those who are tried are put before military courts that almost never acquit defendants and often don’t follow due process, human rights groups say.

According to the Palestinian Prisoners’ Club, an advocacy group, Israel is currently holding 7,200 Palestinians, including about 2,000 arrested since the start of the war.

CEASE-FIRE TAKES HOLD

Friday’s halt in fighting brought Gaza’s uprooted population a moment to catch their breath after weeks of fleeing for shelter, searching for food and fearing for family.

After the truce began Friday morning, four trucks of fuel and four trucks of cooking gas entered from Egypt, as well as 200 trucks of relief supplies, Israel said.

Israel has barred all imports into Gaza throughout the war, except for a trickle of supplies from Egypt.

Its ban on fuel, which it said could be diverted to Hamas, caused a territory-wide blackout. Hospitals, water systems, bakeries and shelters have struggled to keep generators running.

During the truce, Israel agreed to allow the delivery of 130,000 liters (34,340 gallons) of fuel per day — still only a small portion of Gaza’s estimated daily needs of more than 1 million liters.

Most of Gaza’s 2.3 million people are crowded into the southern portion of the territory, with more than 1 million living in U.N. schools-turned-shelters. The calm brought a chance for displaced residents of the south to visit homes and retrieve some belongings.

But the hundreds of thousands who evacuated from northern Gaza to the south were warned not to return in leaflets dropped by Israel. Israeli troops hold much of the north, including Gaza City.

Still, hundreds of Palestinians tried walking north Friday. Two were shot and killed by Israeli troops and another 11 were wounded.

Sofian Abu Amer decided to risk checking his home in Gaza City.

“We don’t have enough clothes, food and drinks,” he said. “The situation is disastrous. It’s better for a person to die.”

Israel’s northern border with Lebanon was also quiet on Friday, a day after the militant Hezbollah group, an ally of Hamas, carried out the highest number of attacks in one day since fighting there began Oct. 8.

Hezbollah is not a party to the cease-fire agreement but was widely expected to halt its attacks.

A LONGER PEACE?

The war erupted when several thousand Hamas militants stormed into southern Israel, killing at least 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and taking scores of hostages, including babies, women and older adults, as well as soldiers.

The hope is that “momentum” from the deal will lead to an “end to this violence,” said Majed al-Ansari, a spokesman for the Foreign Ministry of Qatar, which served as a mediator along with the United States and Egypt.

But hours before it came into effect, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told troops that their respite would be short and that the war would resume with intensity for at least two more months.

Netanyahu has also vowed to continue the war to destroy Hamas’ military capabilities, end its 16-year rule in Gaza and return all the hostages.

The Israeli offensive has killed more than 13,300 Palestinians, according to the Health Ministry in the Hamas-run Gaza government. Women and minors have consistently made up around two-thirds of the dead, though the latest number was not broken down. The figure does not include updated numbers from hospitals in the north, where communications have broken down.

The ministry says some 6,000 people have been reported missing, feared buried under rubble. The ministry does not differentiate between civilians and militants in its death tolls.

Israel says it has killed thousands of Hamas fighters, without presenting evidence for its count.

 

AP

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Ukraine conflict could have ended in Spring 2022 – Kiev’s top MP

Russia was ready to stop the fighting had Ukraine agreed to remain neutral, but the West advised Kiev to keep going, the head of President Vladimir Zelensky’s parliamentary faction – and the chief negotiator at the peace talks in Istanbul – David Arakhamia admitted on Friday.

Arakhamia, who heads the ‘Servant of the People’ parliamentary group, told the TV channel 1+1 that Moscow had offered Kiev a peace deal in March 2022, but the Ukrainian side did not trust Russia.

“Russia’s goal was to put pressure on us so that we would take neutrality. This was the main thing for them: They were ready to end the war if we accepted neutrality, like Finland once did. And we would make a commitment that we will not join NATO. This was the main thing,” said Arakhamia.

However, agreeing to neutrality and giving up NATO membership would have required changing the constitution of Ukraine, Arakhamia explained. “Secondly, there was no trust in the Russians that they would do this. This could only be done with security guarantees,” he told 1+1.

During the talks, Arakhamia added, British then-PM Boris Johnson arrived in Kiev and told Ukrainian officials to keep fighting and not sign any agreements with Moscow.

Johnson’s role in scuttling the peace talks in Istanbul was revealed in May 2022 by the outlet Ukrayinska Pravda. However, neither the British politician – who was ousted as PM in June that year and eventually landed a job at an American think tank – nor the US government ever officially acknowledged pressuring Kiev into reneging on the draft agreement, which Arakhamia himself had signed with the Russians. Kiev had likewise never officially commented on the matter – until now.

Earlier this year, Russian President Vladimir Putin revealed to African leaders that Moscow and Kiev had signed a draft agreement “on permanent neutrality and security guarantees for Ukraine” at the talks hosted by Türkiye.  

As soon as Russia pulled back its troops from the vicinity of Kiev, as a gesture of good will, Ukraine reneged on the deal, Putin said.

The Russian withdrawal was presented by Western governments and media as a Ukrainian military victory and they began sending heavy weapons and equipment to Zelensky’s government, fueling the conflict for the next 18 months.

 

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Ukraine prepares army mobilisation reforms as war drags on - Zelenskiy

Ukraine is drawing up reforms to its programme for mobilising troops as the war with Russia rages on with no end in sight, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Friday.

Kyiv does not disclose its troop losses or the workings of its mobilisation programme which has been under way since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022. Zelenskiy said he had ordered senior officials to draft proposals.

"The plan will be worked out and all the answers will be there - next week I will see this plan," he told a news conference.

Zelenskiy did not reveal details of the reforms. He said issues at military medical commissions and recruitment centres would be addressed.

Ukraine is facing increasing pressure on its recruitment effort as it fights a larger Russian army.

Recruitment offices have been occasionally rocked by scandals involving graft or heavy-handed recruitment tactics.

Earlier this week, several Ukrainian lawmakers said they had been preparing a multifaceted legal bill to improve the mobilisation process.

In August, Zelenskiy dismissed all the heads of Ukraine's regional army recruitment centres as numerous cases of corruption and involvement in draft evasion were reported.

 

RT/Reuters

The people who used to shout most about the need for a revolution to happen in Nigeria are now the blokes making many arguments against revolution. 

The former activists and campaigners for radical change are now singing a new song on the need to give democracy a chance. 

As almost everybody knows all over the planet, things always change only to remain the same in good old Nigeria. 

These are arguably the hardest times for ordinary hardworking Nigerians throughout the history of the benighted country. 

People can hardly make ends meet, and stories are being bandied about how the former regime handed over a bankrupt government to the new regime.

Even so, the new blokes of government are heavy with a budget of presidential yacht, lavish furnishings for the palaces of imperial wives, and super-duper costly legislative SUVs. 

Not even the lunatic escapades of the fictions of magical realism can match the demented doings of the government of the day. 

Dissent has been driven underground while lickspittles and toadies of a bloated government are all over the place asking to be given more time for things to get right. 

Maybe all Nigerians would be dead before the promised Eldorado will manifest over a graveyard marked with green and white buntings. 

The ready recourse for the down-and-out is suicide, either by jumping into the lagoon or drinking the poison known as Sniper.

Something needs to be done fast before a Nigerian sets himself on fire and thus puts the entire nation on fire of eternal damnation.  

It did happen elsewhere because one man changed the history of the world by setting himself on fire. 

The Tunisian, Mohammed Bouazizi, was unable to find work and had to make ends meet by selling fruits at a roadside stand. 

On December 17, 2010 a municipal inspector confiscated his wares, and barely an hour later, Bouazizi doused himself with petrol and set himself on fire. 

His death on January 4, 2011 brought together various groups dissatisfied with the existing system in Tunisia: the unemployed, political and human rights activists, trade unionists, students, professors, lawyers, and many others. 

Thus began the Tunisian Revolution, the uprising that led to the sacking of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali on January 14, 2011, thus ending his 23 years in power. 

Some 10 days after the sacking of President Ben Ali in Tunisia, protests began in Egypt on January 25, 2011 and ran for 18 days. 

Beginning around midnight on January 28, the Egyptian government attempted to eliminate the nation’s internet access, in order to inhibit the protesters’ ability to organize through social media.

It was all in vain for, on February 11, 2011, President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt was forced to flee from power, after being in office for about 30 years.

Then the revolution spread to Libya, the land of the then strongman Muammar Gaddafi who, to give him his due, was putting his country in fine fettle.  

The Libya protests lasted till October 20, 2011 when Gaddafi met with the most gruesome of deaths.  

The uprisings that swept through the Arab world were given the name: The Arab Spring. 

The fear of the Arab Spring spreading to other parts of the world got on the front burner in the day and age of social media. 

Through the Internet, Facebook, Twitter etc., landmark protests could easily be organized in the twinkle of an eye. 

Nigeria had a spectre of the Arab Spring when the then President Goodluck Jonathan removed the fuel subsidy on January 1, 2012. 

The New Year “gift” sparked off anti-government demonstrations in many Nigerian cities the very next day, that is, on January 2. 

Many Nigerian towns were on fire as many protesters marched on the streets with placards, and made bonfires. 

The demonstrations brought together the unemployed, the under-employed, the employed, the poor, ill-assorted classes of people, the educated, the uneducated, the artisans, sundry workers, musicians, diverse artists, students, all kinds of activists and, yes, tribesmen. 

The name that was given to the crusade was “Occupy Nigeria”, and a melting pot of the struggle was the Gani Fawehinmi Square in Ojota, Lagos. 

For a week, from sunup to sundown, the many classes of Nigerians converged at the square, and the number of protesters increased steadily. 

The “Occupy Nigeria” protests petered out when Jonathan announced that the government had reached an agreement with the labour unions to put petrol price at 97 Naira from the high of 141 Naira. 

Leaders of the Nigeria Labour Congress and Trade Union Congress decided to call off the strike. 

And thus was averted what would have amounted to the Nigerian Spring, or a revolution, as some of the then activists would tag it. 

Let’s get to the present tense of the here and now, because fuel subsidy has again been arbitrarily removed. 

The cost of fuel is beyond the ken of Nigerians, and the exchange rate of the Naira has become well-nigh unbearable. 

Inflation is king, and poor Nigeria has bagged the unwanted title of the poverty capital of the world.

The pathetic aspect of the Nigerian matter is that the activists and revolutionaries who mobilized the protests in the past are now the ones making excuses on behalf of government.     

The hunger that made Tunisia’s Mohammed Bouazizi to set himself on fire, thus sparking off the Arab Spring, is an everyday Nigerian nightmare now. 

Anything can happen because one small misstep can lead to cataclysmic tragedy in this bad time of election rigging, judicial abracadabra and democratic dictatorship.    

Given the mess the countries of the Arab Spring are in today, Nigeria should learn the lesson of being saved from anarchy.

A Nigerian must not be driven to set himself on fire because the consequences are dire, not minding the living in denial of Nigeria’s erstwhile activists and expired revolutionaries. 

The fear of revolution by the people is real here.     

• Drone swarms shown to talk, collaborate and split up duties using human language, making it easier for operators to understand the machines' behaviour
• The technology has potential for use in security patrols, rescue operations and aerial logistics and transport, research team says

A team of Chinese scientists has developed drones that can engage in "group chats" to discuss and assign tasks among themselves, much like human teams.

The technology could be used to improve security patrols, disaster rescueand aerial logistics, the researchers said.

While communication strategies for drone swarms are typically designed to simulate bee and ant colonies, the Chinese team designed swarms with the ability to talk and collaborate like humans.

Do you have questions about the biggest topics and trends from around the world? Get the answers with SCMP Knowledge, our new platform of curated content with explainers, FAQs, analyses and infographics brought to you by our award-winning team.

Drone group chats also help make the machines' thinking transparent to humans, allowing researchers to better understand their behaviour.

The technology comes from Li Xuelong and his team at the School of Artificial Intelligence, Optics and Electronics at Northwestern Polytechnical University in Shaanxi province.

The research brings large language models like ChatGPT "to life", integrating them into practical applications, according to a WeChat post from the university's official account.

The post included a demonstration video from the researchers, showing how a team of five drones successfully located a set of keys in an outdoor park.

"The drones showcased key abilities, including humanlike dialogue interaction, proactive environmental awareness and autonomous entity control," the WeChat report said. Autonomous entity control refers to the drone cluster's ability to adjust flight status in real time based on environmental feedback.

The technology equips each drone with a "human brain", allowing them to chat with each other using natural language. This ability was developed based on a Chinese open-source large language model called InternLM, according to the report.

The capacity for dialogue enables both operators and drones to communicate in human language, breaking down barriers between humans and machines.

In the key-finding experiment, after a user tasked the drones with the search, three of them promptly "volunteered" their search abilities while two others, equipped with grippers, told the group they could retrieve the keys. The division of tasks was independently decided by the drone cluster.

Once the keys were found, the drones also shared images with the user via the group chat for confirmation. "This level of dialogue at crucial points significantly improves the stability and safety in executing complex tasks," the report said.

Equipped with multiple sensors and algorithms for low-altitude search, dynamic obstacle avoidance and visual positioning, the drones are designed to perceive their surroundings from different angles and positions, enabling them to collect data and execute tasks efficiently.

These abilities are referred to as proactive environmental awareness, which allows them to understand and adapt to their surroundings.

Each of the four drones was assigned a specific area to search. As they looked for the keys, the drones coordinated their movements to cover these areas efficiently. They generated a simplified map of the terrain to guide their efforts, and were also able to identify and avoid human operators in their path, ensuring safer flights.

The report noted that the technology has potential for use in security inspections, disaster relief and drone-based transport and logistics.

Previously, Li's team explored optics-driven drones that use high-energy lasers for remote power supply, providing them with potentially limitless endurance.

In October, Li spearheaded the development of an underwater droneguidance system named Navigator.

 

South China Morning Post

A Colombian mother is being accused of staging her own toddler son’s kidnapping along with several accomplices in order to get ransom money from the boy’s father.

On Sunday evening, November 12th, the news of a young boy kidnapped in Caribe Verde, south of Barranquilla, Colombia, started spreading like wildfire. The 2-year-old had apparently been snatched right out of the arms of his helpless mother as she was walking on the street. Two helmet-wearing assailants approached the woman on motorcycles, intimidated her, and then rode away with her child. When police arrived on the scene, they started questioning the woman about what had gone down, and locating the minor became the biggest priority. It didn’t take long before someone reported the presence of a child fitting the kidnapping victim’s description in a Caribe Verde apartment. A police team burst into the apartment, only instead of masked assailants, they found the boy in the care of a friend of his mother.

Around midnight, a woman called the police to report that her 17-year-old son had come home with a boy that fit the victim’s description. Upon questioning the youth, officers learned that he was a friend of the boy’s mother and that she had asked him to take care of the boy for a few days, as she attempted to extort 60 million pesos ($14,700) out of the boy’s father.

It’s unclear whether the boy’s parents were still together at the time of the staged kidnapping, or whether the woman got to ask the father for a ransom. Colombian media reports that the 2-year-old is currently in his father’s care, while the mother awaits her charges in jail.

 

Oddity Central

Nigeria has finished 144th position in the 2023 safest countries in the world ranking.The yearly Global Peace Index ranks 163 independent states and territories according to their level of peacefulness.

In the latest report, Nigeria sank one step from 143rd position recorded in 2022, though two steps higher than 146th recorded in 2021. Several African countries are adjudged more peaceful than Nigeria. They are: Mauritius, finishing in 23rd position globally; Sierra Leone 47th; Ghana 51st; Senegal 52nd; Madagascar 55th; Namibia 56th; The Gambia 59th; Zambia 63rd; Liberia 70th; Malawi 74th; Tunisia 81st and Equatorial Guinea 82nd.

Others are: Angola and Morocco 84th; Guinea Bissau 87th; Rwanda 88th; Cote d’Ivoire 90th; Tanzania 91st; Gabon 93rd; Algeria 96th; Togo 103rd; Eswatini 109th; Benin 110th; Lesotho 111th; Djibouti 112th; Republic of Congo 113th; Mauritania 114th; Kenya 117th; Mozambique 118th; Egypt 121st; Zimbabwe and Uganda 124th; Guinea 127th; Burundi 128th; South Africa 130th; Eritrea 133rd; Libya 137th; Niger 138th; Cameroon 139th, and Chad in 142nd position.

The study – called the Global Peace Index and produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace – covers 99.7 per cent of the population and measures ‘societal safety and security, domestic and international conflict and the degree of militarisation’.

Overall, the report concludes that Iceland is the safest country overall – though its publication preceded the current volcanic activity – followed by Denmark (second), Ireland (third) and New Zealand (fourth).

America ranks 131st yet again, just behind South Africa (130th) and Haiti (129th).
Afghanistan (163rd) is deemed the least peaceful country in the world for the eighth consecutive year, followed by Yemen (162nd), Syria (161st), South Sudan (160th) and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (159th).

The report authors say: “The war in Ukraine had a significant impact on global peacefulness, with Ukraine and Russia having the largest and fifth largest deteriorations in peacefulness respectively. Haiti, Mali, and Israel were the other countries with the largest deteriorations (note that the study also preceded the current conflict in Israel).”

Europe is the most peaceful region in the world, according to the study, and is home to seven of 10 ten most peaceful countries. The other three most peaceful countries are in the Asia Pacific region. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region remained the world’s least peaceful region, the report concludes. It is home to four of the 10 least peaceful countries.

“There are only two countries in the North American region, with Canada (11th) recording a 2.9 per cent increase in peacefulness, and the U.S experiencing a slight fall in peacefulness, with its overall score deteriorating by 0.38 per cent. There is a considerable disparity in peacefulness between the two countries.”

The report revealed that one reason is a feeling of safety in Canada, stating: “Less than 20 per cent of Canadians report that they do not feel safe walking alone at night in their city or neighbourhood.”

One reason for America’s lowly ranking is the murder rate, with the report stating: “The United States recorded the fourth largest overall increase in its homicide rate, which is now above six per 100,000 people and more than six times higher than most Western European countries.”

 

The Guardian

Brent crude futures rose in early Asian trade on Friday, reversing losses in the previous session as traders speculated on whether OPEC+ would come to an agreement on further production cuts.

Brent crude futures gained 29 cents, or 0.4%, to $81.71 at 0213 GMT, after settling down 0.7% in the previous session.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude slid 38 cents, or 0.5%, to $76.72, from its Wednesday close. There was no settlement for WTI on Thursday as it was a U.S. public holiday.

Both contracts are on track to mark their first weekly rise in five, supported by expectations that OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia, could reduce supply to balance the markets into 2024.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, together known as OPEC+, surprised the market with an announcement on Wednesday that it would postpone a ministerial meeting by four days to Nov. 30, after producers struggled to come to a consensus on production levels.

"The most likely outcome now appears to be an extension of existing cuts," Tony Sycamore, a Sydney-based market analyst at IG, wrote in a note.

The surprise delay had initially brought Brent futures down by as much as 4% and WTI by as much as 5% in Wednesday's intraday trading.

Trading remained subdued because of the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S.

On the demand side, poor refining margins have led to weaker crude demand from refineries in the U.S., analysts said.

"Fundamentals developments have been bearish with rising U.S. oil inventories," ANZ analysts said in a note.

In China, analysts say oil demand growth could weaken to around 4% in the first half of 2024 from strong post-Covid growth levels in 2023, as the country's property sector crunch weighs on diesel use.

Non-OPEC production growth is set to stay strong with Brazilian state energy firm Petrobras planning to invest $102 billion over the next five years to boost output to 3.2 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) by 2028 from 2.8 million boepd in 2024.

 

Reuters

Most of the attention to what Ukraine needs in its protracted struggle to free its territory from the invading Russian forces has focused on hardware: tanks, fighter jets, missiles, air-defence batteries, artillery and vast quantities of munitions. But a less discussed weakness lies in electronic warfare (EW); something that Ukraine’s Western supporters have so far shown little interest in tackling.

Russia, says Seth Jones of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, a think-tank in Washington, has for many years placed a “huge focus” on using its military-industrial complex to produce and develop an impressive range of EW capabilities to counter NATO’s highly networked systems. But Ukraine, according to its commander-in-chief, General Valery Zaluzhny, found itself at the beginning of the war with mainly Soviet-era EW systems. Initially the discrepancy had only limited impact, but as relatively static lines of contact have emerged Russia has been able to position its formidable EW assets where they can have the greatest effect.

Ukraine discovered in March that its Excalibur GPS-guided shells suddenly started going off-target, thanks to Russian jamming. Something similar started happening to the JDAM-ER guided bombs that America had supplied to the Ukrainian air force, while Ukraine’s HIMARS-launched GMLRS long-range rockets also started missing their targets. In some areas, a majority of GMLRS rounds now go astray.

Even more worrying has been the increasing ability of Russian EW to counter the multitudes of cheap unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) that Ukraine has been using for everything from battlefield reconnaissance and communications to exploding on impact against targets such as tanks or command nodes.

Ukraine has trained an army of some 10,000 drone pilots who are now constantly engaged in a cat-and-mouse game with increasingly adept Russian EW operators. The favoured drones are cheap, costing not much more than $1,000 each, and Ukraine is building enormous quantities of them. But losses to Russian EW, which either scrambles their guidance systems or jams their radio-control links with their operators, have at times been running at over 2,000 a week. The smitten drones hover aimlessly until their batteries run out and they fall to the ground.

Neither hardening them against jamming nor investing them with artificial intelligence to fly without a live link to a human operator are feasible options yet, at least for mini-drones. Quantity still wins out over quality, but Russia may have an advantage there too. The skies over the battlefield are now thick with Russian drones. Around Bakhmut, Ukrainian soldiers estimate that Russia is deploying twice the number of assault drones they are able to.

Growing Russian success in the drone war is partly explained by the density of EW systems it is able to field, thanks to those years of investment. A report published in May by Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds of RUSI, a think-tank in London, reckoned the Russians are fielding one major EW system every 10km along the frontline. They think that among many Russian EW systems the truck-mounted Shipovnic-Aero (pictured) is proving especially deadly to Ukrainian drones. The system has a 10km range and can take over control of the drone, while acquiring the co-ordinates of the place from where it is being piloted, with an accuracy of one metre, for transmission to an artillery battery.

Starting from a much lower level of technical and operational skill, Ukraine is struggling to develop home-grown EW capabilities to match those of the Russians. Some progress is being made. The nationwide Pokrova system is being deployed. It can both suppress satellite-based navigation systems, such as Russia’s GLONASS, and spoof them by replacing genuine signals with false ones, making the missile think it is somewhere it is not.

Pokrova should be highly effective against the Iranian-designed Shahed-136 loitering munition, but less so against cruise missiles that rely more on terrain-matching systems, which compare the ground below to a library of stored images rather than being guided all the way in. As well as Pokrova, so-called “Frankenstein” systems, cobbled together with typically Ukrainian ingenuity by combining Soviet systems with more modern technology, are also making an appearance.

But what is missing is much in the way of help from Ukraine’s Western allies when it comes to the EW contest with Russia. Mr Jones says that, as far as America is concerned, that is not likely to change. EW falls into a category of technology transfer restricted by an export-control regime that is rigidly policed by the State Department.

Nico Lange, an expert on Ukraine with the Munich Security Conference, is similarly pessimistic. For one thing, he suspects that NATO’s capabilities may not be as good as Russia’s. Worse, when it comes to the latest systems, he thinks that there is also some reluctance, especially on the part of the Americans, to show Russia its hand because actionable information, for instance on the frequencies and the channel-hopping techniques employed, is likely to be passed on to the Chinese.

Where the West could help directly, says Mr Lange, is to use its long-range surveillance drones for more systematic collection of data on Russian jamming and spoofing techniques and to work with the Ukrainians on developing counters to them. Otherwise, it looks as though Ukraine is fated to have to meet its urgent EW challenge largely on its own.

 

The Economist

Qatar says Gaza cease-fire will begin Friday morning, with aid to follow 'as soon as possible'

A four-day cease-fire in Gaza between Israel and Hamas was set to begin Friday morning, Qatar said after a daylong delay extended the agony for those hoping for some relief from the deal, which is to bring the release of dozens of hostages held by militants and Palestinians imprisoned by Israel.

The diplomatic breakthrough promised some relief for the 2.3 million Palestinians in Gaza who have endured weeks of Israeli bombardment, as well as families in Israel fearful for the fate of their loved ones taken captive during Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack that triggered the war.

The cease-fire was originally set to begin Thursday morning, but it appeared to hit a snag the night before when Israel’s national security adviser, Tzachi Hanegbi, announced a one-day delay without providing a reason.

On Thursday, Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesman Majed al-Ansari announced the cease-fire will start at 7 a.m. local time Friday (5 a.m. GMT).

He said the two sides had exchanged lists of those to be released, and the first group of 13 women and children held by Hamas would be freed Friday afternoon. He did not say how many Palestinian prisoners would be freed, but officials have said three would be freed for every hostage.

Increased aid for Palestinians will start to enter Gaza “as soon as possible,” al-Ansari said. The hope is that the “momentum” from this deal will lead to an “end to this violence,” he told reporters.

RISING TOLL IN GAZA

Israeli airstrikes continued Thursday. In the afternoon, a strike leveled a residential building in the Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza. At least 12 people were killed, according to officials at nearby Al-Aqsa Hospital.

One resident, Hosni Moharib, said his wife and several children were killed and other relatives remained buried under the rubble.

“It exploded on the house, striking the babies and young children. Everyone in the house, they are all dead,” he said, bursting into tears.

The Israeli bombardment, now in its seventh week, has killed more than 13,300 Palestinians, according to the Health Ministry in Hamas-ruled Gaza, which resumed its detailed count of casualties in Gaza from the war. The ministry had stopped publishing casualty counts since Nov. 11, saying it had lost the ability to do so because of the health system’s collapse in the north.

The new numbers were not fully broken down, but women and minors have consistently made up around two-thirds of the dead. The figures do not include updated numbers from hospitals in the north. The ministry says some 6,000 people have been reported missing, feared buried under rubble.

The ministry does not differentiate between civilians and militants in its death tolls. Israel says it has killed thousands of Hamas fighters, without presenting evidence for its count.

NETANYAHU SAYS TRUCE WON’T END WAR

The truce agreement raised hopes of eventually winding down the war, which has leveled vast swaths of Gaza, fueled a surge of violence in the occupied West Bank and stirred fears of a wider conflagration across the Middle East.

Air-raid sirens sounded across northern Israel on Thursday as Hezbollah said it fired 48 Katyusha rockets from southern Lebanon. The barrage came after an Israeli strike killed five Hezbollah fighters, including the son of the head of the group’s parliamentary bloc.

The Israeli military said it was striking the sources of the launches. Israel and Hezbollah, which fought a monthlong war in 2006, have repeatedly traded fire across the border since the war in Gaza broke out.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to continue the war after the truce expires to destroy Hamas’ military capabilities, end its 16-year rule in Gaza and return all the estimated 240 captives held in Gaza by Hamas and other groups.

“We will continue it until we achieve all our goals,” Netanyahu said, adding that he had delivered the same message in a phone call to U.S. President Joe Biden. Washington has provided extensive military and diplomatic support to Israel since the start of the war.

In Gaza’s city of Khan Younis, Palestinians welcomed the respite of the upcoming cease-fire but said four days would do little to relieve the humanitarian disaster caused by the war.

“God willing, it becomes a total cease-fire,” said Jihan Qanan. “People have had houses brought down on their heads, they’ve been expelled ... There’s no homes, no money, no possessions. The whole world is wrecked.”

SURROUNDING JABALIYA

The Israeli military said combat operations would continue until it was ordered to hold fire, and chief spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said troops would remain in place during the truce. Israeli forces hold much of northern Gaza, where they say they have dismantled tunnels and much of Hamas’ infrastructure there.

The military said it has surrounded the Jabaliya refugee camp and called on any residents inside to evacuate Thursday. The military has said it is pursuing Hamas fighters in Jabaliya, a dense urban district adjacent to Gaza City that has been heavily bombarded for weeks.

The military said Thursday it detained the director of Gaza City’s Shifa Hospital, Mohammed Abu Selmia, for questioning over his involvement in what it called “extensive” Hamas activities in the hospital. Gaza’s Health Ministry condemned Abu Selmia’s arrest and called on international bodies to intervene.

A day earlier, Israel showed a tunnel and rooms that military officials said were a major Hamas hideout beneath Shifa. Hamas and hospital staff deny Israeli allegations that Shifa was used as a militant command center. Hagari said Israel has mapped out Shifa Hospital and plans to destroy all “terror infrastructure” it has found.

Ahmed El-Mokhallalati, a plastic surgeon working at Shifa, said 150 patients are still there, with only two doctors, a nurse and three volunteer workers to care for them. “My colleagues and I are unable to continue providing treatment to patients,” El-Mokhallalati said on X.

Israel has threatened to extend its invasion to southern Gaza, where most of the territory’s population is now located. More than 1 million people, including hundreds of thousands who fled the north, have crammed into overflowing U.N.-run shelters with dwindling food, water and basic supplies.

For Hamas, the cease-fire would provide an opportunity to regroup after weeks of apparently heavy losses. Hamas leader Yehya Sinwar, who is believed to be alive and in hiding in Gaza, is likely to claim the release of Palestinian prisoners as a major achievement and declare victory if the war ends.

HOSTAGES TO BE FREED IN STAGES

Under the truce deal, 50 hostages are supposed to be freed in stages, in exchange for the release of what Hamas said would be 150 Palestinian prisoners. Women and children would be released first, and Israel said the truce would be extended an extra day for every additional 10 hostages freed.

The return of hostages could lift spirits in Israel, where their plight has gripped the country. Families of the hostages have staged mass demonstrations to pressure the government to bring them home. Netanyahu’s office said it notified the families of hostages listed for release Friday.

Hamas said 200 trucks a day will enter Gaza carrying aid. Qatar said the aid will include fuel, but has given no details on quantities.

Israel cut off all imports at the start of the war, except for a trickle of food, water and medical supplies allowed in from Egypt. The lack of fuel has caused a territory-wide blackout, leaving homes and hospitals reliant on faltering generators.

Israel’s Justice Ministry published a list of 300 prisoners eligible to be released, mainly teenagers detained over the past year for rock-throwing and other minor offenses.

The war erupted when several thousand Hamas militants stormed into southern Israel, killing at least 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and taking scores of hostages, including babies, women and older adults, as well as soldiers, for whom Hamas is expected to demand a large number of high-profile prisoners.

 

AP

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Unrelenting Russian attacks on Avdiivka, shelling kills four in south, Ukraine says

Ukrainian forces staved off unrelenting Russian attacks on the devastated eastern Ukraine city of Avdiivka on Thursday, a senior official said, and Russian shelling killed four people on the war's southern front in Kherson region.

With little movement along the 1,000-km (600-mile) front line, Moscow has been focused since mid-October on capturing Avdiivka, a town noted for its vast coking plant and proximity to the Russian-held regional centre of Donetsk.

Vitaliy Barabash, head of Avdiivka's military administration, said Russian forces had unleashed "the fiercest" attacks on the devastated town, where fewer than 1,400 of 32,000 pre-war residents remain.

"Basically, nothing has changed. Everything is very tough. As regards the city, there is an average number of eight to 16 to 18 air attacks per day. Sometimes 30. We don't have time to count them," Barabash told Channel 24 television.

"I am pleased the defence line has been holding for a month and a half. It has not been breached, no matter what they say."

He said 102 residents, a "certain record", had been evacuated in the past week along the lone road out of the town.

The town is protected by fortifications erected after it was briefly seized by Russian-financed separatists in 2014.

Russian accounts of the fighting rarely mention Avdiivka. On Thursday, the Russian Defence Ministry said its forces had struck Ukrainian units further south in Donetsk region.

Reuters could not verify reports from either side.

FIGHTING IN THE NORTHEAST

Ukrainian officials have noted Russian attempts to advance in Ukraine's northeast near Kupansk, a town seized by Russian forces in the days after the February 2022 invasion but retaken by Ukrainian troops about a year ago.

Military analyst Serhiy Zgurets, interviewed by the Espreso TV news outlet, quoted commanders as saying Russian forces were bearing down on Senkyvka village, with the aim of pushing Ukrainian forces back to the Oskil River.

Overnight temperatures of minus 13 Celsius (9 Fahrenheit), had frozen the ground, easing the advance for Russian vehicles.

Russian forces have focused on the east since failing in their initial attempt to advance on Kyiv. They hold a little less than 20% of Ukrainian territory.

In southern Kherson region, prosecutors said Russian forces had shelled the town of Beryslav, killing a man on a bicycle. In a separate shelling incident targeting several settlements, two men and a woman were killed, they said.

Advertisement · Scroll to continue

Russian troops abandoned Kherson and the western bank of the Dnipro River late last year, but now regularly shell those areas from positions on the eastern bank.

Ukrainian forces launched a counteroffensive in June and have made marginal gains in the east and south. Kyiv last week said troops had established a bridgehead on the Dnipro's east bank, but Russian officials dispute this.

 

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Russian forces wipe out Ukrainian ammo depot, signal center at airfield near Khmelnitsky

Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian ammunition depot and a signal center at an airfield in the Khmelnitsky Region over the past day in the special military operation in Ukraine, Russia’s Defense Ministry reported on Thursday.

"An air-launched ammunition depot and a signal center were destroyed at an airfield in the Khmelnitsky Region," the ministry said in a statement.

Russian forces repulse Ukrainian attack in Kupyansk area over past day

Russian forces repulsed a Ukrainian army attack in the Kupyansk area, destroying roughly 50 enemy troops over the past day, the ministry reported.

"In the Kupyansk direction, units of the western battlegroup conducted active operations with the support of aircraft and artillery fire and repulsed an attack by assault groups of the Ukrainian army’s 14th mechanized brigade near the settlement of Olshana in the Kharkov Region. In addition, they inflicted damage by firepower on units of the Ukrainian army’s 32nd and 57th mechanized brigades near the settlements of Sinkovka and Timkovka in the Kharkov Region," the ministry said.

The Ukrainian army’s losses in the Kupyansk direction over the past 24 hours amounted to 50 personnel, 2 armored combat vehicles and 3 pickup trucks, it said.

"In counter-battery fire, a Polish-made Krab self-propelled artillery gun, a US-manufactured M777 artillery system, a D-20 howitzer and two Gvozdika motorized artillery systems were destroyed," the ministry reported.

Russian forces repel Ukrainian attack in Krasny Liman area over past day

Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian army attack in the Krasny Liman area, eliminating roughly 95 enemy troops over the past day, the ministry reported.

"In the Krasny Liman direction, an attack by assault groups of the Ukrainian National Guard’s 5th brigade was repelled by well-coordinated operations of units from the battlegroup Center, army aircraft strikes and artillery fire near the settlement of Grigorovka in the Donetsk People’s Republic," the ministry said.

The Ukrainian army’s losses in the Krasny Liman direction over the past 24 hours amounted to "as many as 95 personnel, three armored combat vehicles and four motor vehicles," it specified.

In counter-battery fire, Russian forces destroyed a US-made M109 Paladin artillery system, a Polish-manufactured Krab self-propelled artillery gun and a French-made Caesar howitzer, the ministry reported.

Russian forces also inflicted damage by firepower on the Ukrainian army in the area of the Serebryansky forestry, it said.

Russian forces repulse two Ukrainian attacks in Donetsk area over past day

Russian forces repulsed two Ukrainian army attacks in the Donetsk area over the past day, the ministry reported.

"In the Donetsk direction, units of the southern battlegroup in interaction with aircraft and artillery repulsed two attacks by assault groups of the Ukrainian army’s 5th assault brigade near the settlement of Kleshcheyevka in the Donetsk People’s Republic. In addition, they inflicted damage on manpower and equipment of the Ukrainian army’s 22nd, 24th and 93rd mechanized brigades near the settlements of Razdolovka, Kurdyumovka and Vasyukovka in the Donetsk People’s Republic," the ministry said.

The Ukrainian army’s losses in the Donetsk direction over the past 24 hours amounted to 280 personnel killed and wounded, 3 tanks, an infantry fighting vehicle and 4 pickup trucks, it said.

"In counter-battery fire, a Msta-B howitzer, a Giatsint field gun and three D-30 howitzers were destroyed," the ministry reported.

Russian forces strike two Ukrainian army brigades in south Donetsk area over past day

Russian forces inflicted damage on two Ukrainian army brigades in the south Donetsk area, eliminating roughly 140 enemy troops over the past day, the ministry reported.

"In the south Donetsk direction, units of the battlegroup East in interaction with army aircraft and artillery inflicted damage by firepower on the personnel and equipment of the Ukrainian army’s 79th air assault brigade near the settlement of Novomikhailovka in the Donetsk People’s Republic and 102nd territorial defense brigade near the settlement of Priyutnoye in the Zaporozhye Region," the ministry said.

The Ukrainian army’s losses in the south Donetsk direction over the past 24 hours amounted to 140 personnel, 3 armored personnel carriers and 4 motor vehicles, it said.

"In counter-battery fire, the following targets were destroyed: a US-made M777 artillery system and a Gvozdika motorized artillery gun," the ministry reported.

 

Reuters/Tass