"Everything Was Forever Until It Was No More." (- Alexi Yurchak, Author, 2006)
"Things fall apart, the center cannot hold." (- W.B. Yeats, Poet, 1919)
Exactly 25 years ago, in December 1991, I was a young TV producer/reporter/news anchor of a global newscast, CBN World News. At the time, something was afoot in the firmament of global politics. History was being made. What had once seemed permanent, was crumbling before our eyes.
The great Soviet Union, the world's second largest superpower, was disintegrating from within at hyper speed. Four months earlier, Mikhail Gorbachev, the reformist President of the USSR had survived a coup when hardline Communist leaders held him hostage for 48 hours at his summer dacha in the Crimea. Though the coup failed, it marked the beginning of the end for Gorbachev and his government. In December 1991, Boris Yeltsin, the gregarious and rambling Russian President, clambered on top of a tank outside Parliament and wrested power from the already weakened Gorbachev.
Like dominos, a total of 12 republics including Russia would go on to secede from the Communist union established in 1922.
As the former republics grappled with political and economic chaos, the West gleefully heralded capitalism and globalization's triumph over the communist 'Evil Empire' - a tag gifted to the Soviet Union by former President Ronald Reagan.
Along with other newsroom colleagues - Michael Patrick, Gary Lane, Sam Walker, Tyrone Bragg, Cynthia Glaser (now Newman), Scott Hatch, Andrea Garret, and many others, we watched ... transfixed. Hollywood could not have written a more befitting intrigue-filled script. As that which was supposed to be 'permanent' crumbled, the world looked on in shock and amazement.
Fast forward twenty five years later. Is the West about to go the way of the Soviet Union? 2016 could be a precursor of seismic global changes to come in 2017. In this unfolding drama, there is already a general sense that a new political reality is on the horizon.
2016 was the year in which against seemingly overwhelming odds, Britain voted to exit the EU. In 2016 the Prime Ministers of Britain and Italy gambled with their political futures and lost.
On the other side of the Atlantic, 2016 saw the emergence of a non-politician who against the run of play unseated a powerful political dynasty. In spite of strong objections by the political and media elite, key Party leaders, influential members of Congress, former U.S. Presidents, entertainment icons, and global leaders, Donald J. Trump still emerged as President-elect of the United States and TIME magazine's Person of the Year.
Liberals and globalists will be united in their desire to see 2016 come to an end. It could not come sooner. However, truth be told, if this has been one crazy year, the portents for 2017 do not seem to be any better. France, Germany, and the Netherlands, are scheduled to hold Presidential and Parliamentary elections in 2017. Each country could very well see the emergence of a Far Right anti-EU nationalist candidate.
In France, Marine Le Pen has promised to champion a referendum to determine France's place in the European Union. If she wins and France opts for a 'Frexit,' it would be the nail in the coffin of a once lofty continental experiment.
In Germany, Angela Merkel, will be challenged by another woman, the 40-year old Frauke Petry who has been dubbed the 'smiling face' of Germany's resurgent Right. If Merkel underestimates Petry's youthful charm, it will be at her own political peril because much of what Petry says and stands for already resonates with large swathes of the German public.
In the Netherlands, the much derided PVV candidate, Geert Wilders, could potentially pull a Trump on the Dutch. He too is viscerally and ideologically opposed to the EU.
1. Today, the West is witnessing a hardening of attitudes toward minorities, a demonization of immigrants, and an increasing rise in nationalism.
2. All across Europe there are historic levels of public dissatisfaction with unelected EU parliamentarians. In country after country, there is also a pervading sense among voters that politicians in London, Paris, Brussels, Bonn, Amsterdam, Rome, Budapest, and for that matter Washington D.C., are too far removed from the real concerns and problems that confront voters outside of these capital cities. It is no wonder therefore that an out-of-touch political establishment, elite media, and hired pollsters, all read the public mood wrong in both the British referendum and the American Presidential election.
3. A capitalist economy fueled by profit and greed, has for decades resulted in millions of European and American jobs being systematically outsourced to other countries. One of the consequences of this short-term economic gratification is that today the West is dotted with rundown relics of once prosperous industrial hubs. To this end, one needs look no further than Lyon and Marseilles in France, Naples and Turin in Italy, Leipzig in Germany, or Rotterdam in the Netherlands. Countless cities in America's Rust Belt - Pittsburgh, Detroit, Buffalo, St Louis, Cedar Rapids, Chicago, Cleveland, and Akron, to mention a few - are prime examples of urban decay. Ironically, each of these hubs once prospered greatly thanks to immigrant labor. Today, the tide is turning against the same people whose backs once bore responsibility for the economic prosperity of these same cities.
Are there parallels between the Soviet Union and Globalization today? There seems to be a few.
1. Like the Soviet Union, un-elected and unaccountable officials preside over the fate of more than 508 million EU citizens. They are not responsible to the people but to a 'State' that provides generous salaries and office perks. The people have no meaningful feedback mechanisms, other than during referendums.
2. A loss of nationality. Like the USSR, for decades, EU citizens have been encouraged to primarily adopt a European identity and forgo national preferences. Those who don't, are more often than not labeled 'racists.'
3. Unrelenting political correctness and the muzzling of voices of dissent. In many countries, there is growing public angst against the media and government intolerance for social, political, and religious views not considered to be in the 'mainstream.'
4. At inception, the EU was touted as a loose Economic union. In just a little over 40 years, it has evolved into a Super State with vast political, economic, financial, legal, and diplomatic powers, many of which have been acquired by stealth. As with the Soviet Union, there is no regard for Democracy or the will of the people, but rather a small cadre of elite and unaccountable bureaucrats.
5. The Soviet Union consolidated power by passing a rash of voluminous laws. Today, the EU is awash in legalese that governs everything from the size of agricultural produce, to a ban on curvy bananas and cucumbers, to a restriction on the manufacturing specs for hair dryers and vacuum cleaners.
6. Ideologically, the EU is a dictatorship of a few in Brussels over and above any sovereign considerations.
7. Opting out of the Soviet Union was considered an act of treason. Divorce from the Communist empire was out of the question. So it is today with the EU. As 2016 comes to a close, Brussels is determined to make an example of Great Britain and send an unmistakable message to other countries so inclined to leave.
It is still too early to herald the end of Globalization. However, the die is cast. Britain has begun the legal process of disengaging from Europe. Possible wins by Far Right groups in France, Italy, Hungary, and the Netherlands in 2017 may inevitably lead to the dissolution of the EU, and effectively put the breaks on European-propelled globalization.
Across the pond, the hand that Trump deals to China (who he has already accused of trade restrictions and currency manipulation) could impact the future of Globalization and the trajectory of China's economic growth.
Fragile economic systems and massive national debts, could also be tipping points that have enormous global reverberations.
New technologies such as robotics, artificial intelligence, automation of invention, and 3D printing have the potential to also undo globalization by reducing global supply chains and global trade.
When all of the above converge, the phenomena of globalization that once seemed permanent, could begin to unravel at hyper speed.
As with the Soviet Union twenty five years ago, if and when Globalization collapses, I trust and pray that there will be a remnant of moral and spiritual leaders who will speak boldly into the created vacuum by offering meaning, hope, and direction.
Time will tell!